M 90: Shootout at the Pretty Good Corral

[Jamiet99uk]

Since:

- There is a tie;
- I do not wish to me Modkilled;
- Bozo will not help apparently.

Therefore:

##Vote Bozo.

[bozotheclown]

I have revised my towncore to just 4

me Flav sweet and DemonRHK

the silence is deafening

Predictions of the final 3 mafia:

bozo: RHK, Jamie, sweetandcool
sweetandcool: Flavius, kingofthepirates, bozo
Jamie: sweetandcool, damo, bozo
rdrivera: lfischl, Jamie, Flavius
BunnyGo: kingofthepirates, lfischl, Jamie

Bozo 1 at most
Sweet 2 at most
Jamie nil
Rdr 2 at most
Bunny 2 at most

@bozo assuming you are shooting from your 3 make it RHK

Predictions of the final 3 mafia:

bozo: RHK, Jamie, sweetandcool
sweetandcool: Flavius, kingofthepirates, bozo
Jamie: bozo, lfischl, kingofthepirates
rdrivera: lfischl, Jamie, Flavius
BunnyGo: kingofthepirates, lfischl, Jamie
damo: kingofthepirates, lfischl, RHK
RHK: Flavius, lfischl, rdrivera
lfischl: Jamie, kingofthepirates, rdrivera
kingofthepirates: Flavius, lfischl, ?
Flavius: sweetandcool, rdrivera, Jamie

On the assumption no scum would name both their teammates this leaves me with the following triplets:

k l d
l r d
k r f
k d f
l d f
r d f

Frequency count (among my scum candidates only)

k 3
l 3
r 3
d 5
f 4

On the assumption d is being set up the only solution I have left is {kotp, rdr, Flav} each would then be nominating one partner and one only.

I am reasonably happy with that as my solution.

With that solution townscores are as follows:

bozo nil
sweet 2
Jamie 1
Bunny 1
Demon 2
fish 2
damo 1

nobody gets it all correct.

Yeah this makes sense.

THE SOLUTION IS {kotp, rdr, Flav}

Why did you stop town reading RHK and Flavius?

[bozotheclown]

My guess for the remaining three is kotp rdr Bozo

Why did you think I was mafia?

[bozotheclown]

Jamie-sweet and bozo?

what about rdr-bozo-kotp?

Why did you suggest this combination?

[damo666]

I have revised my towncore to just 4

me Flav sweet and DemonRHK

the silence is deafening

Predictions of the final 3 mafia:

bozo: RHK, Jamie, sweetandcool
sweetandcool: Flavius, kingofthepirates, bozo
Jamie: sweetandcool, damo, bozo
rdrivera: lfischl, Jamie, Flavius
BunnyGo: kingofthepirates, lfischl, Jamie

Bozo 1 at most
Sweet 2 at most
Jamie nil
Rdr 2 at most
Bunny 2 at most

@bozo assuming you are shooting from your 3 make it RHK

Predictions of the final 3 mafia:

bozo: RHK, Jamie, sweetandcool
sweetandcool: Flavius, kingofthepirates, bozo
Jamie: bozo, lfischl, kingofthepirates
rdrivera: lfischl, Jamie, Flavius
BunnyGo: kingofthepirates, lfischl, Jamie
damo: kingofthepirates, lfischl, RHK
RHK: Flavius, lfischl, rdrivera
lfischl: Jamie, kingofthepirates, rdrivera
kingofthepirates: Flavius, lfischl, ?
Flavius: sweetandcool, rdrivera, Jamie

On the assumption no scum would name both their teammates this leaves me with the following triplets:

k l d
l r d
k r f
k d f
l d f
r d f

Frequency count (among my scum candidates only)

k 3
l 3
r 3
d 5
f 4

On the assumption d is being set up the only solution I have left is {kotp, rdr, Flav} each would then be nominating one partner and one only.

I am reasonably happy with that as my solution.

With that solution townscores are as follows:

bozo nil
sweet 2
Jamie 1
Bunny 1
Demon 2
fish 2
damo 1

nobody gets it all correct.

Yeah this makes sense.

THE SOLUTION IS {kotp, rdr, Flav}

Why did you stop town reading RHK and Flavius?

doubts

I am back to towning RHK btw

[damo666]

My guess for the remaining three is kotp rdr Bozo

Why did you think I was mafia?

Can't remember off the top of my head tbh. There was a relatively small pool of people I wasn't town reading and you were one of them. Maybe hiding lawman affected the way you can across. All I remember is that I wasn't convinced by you.

[bozotheclown]

My guess for the remaining three is kotp rdr Bozo

Jamie-sweet and bozo?

what about rdr-bozo-kotp?

Could be

Bozo kotp & someone unexpected

It is strange that damo and lfischl both come up with the same combination out of 165 possible combinations at about the same time. Then damo reacts to lfischl posting the same reads by changing his to back out rdrivera.

Maybe we were the mis-kills the mafia decided to go for and lfischl had not read the damo post.

[bozotheclown]

Okay, one thought I'd like to leave you with if this is the last thing I post.

Been thinking a lot about the psychology of sweetandcool.

Sweet is a good player. He legit played one of the best Town games I have seen two games ago when he was Cop, his reads were right on the money, and he executed a role swap that essentially pushed Town into Auto-win.

I can see Sweet making a bold gambit as any alignment. He will take risks, spur discussion, grab the spotlight. All of that is NAI.

His gambit this game though looks different to me. He hard claimed Detective. Then hard claimed Desperado. Then hard claimed Detective. He did it all on a day when the real PRs would have no incentive to claim, and he did it assertively, without trying to avoid a daykill or vig shot.

To me -- this is "look at me" stuff that is very different than a normal Town!Sweet gambit, which is to role swap or fake a claim at a time when it makes sense, and has to be taken seriously. This is "look at me, look at me" for its own sake. And Sweet absolutely knew he was going to get eye rolls and frustration for it.

So what is Sweet's motivation? Is it some kind of weird reaction test? Does that make sense? Say something that makes no strategic sense to get people talking about you? If that's the Town!Sweet play, it is exceptionally unusual.

And beyond being unusual, it's kind of embarrassing. I am trying to picture Town!Sweet, going to Discord after this game, and talking to everyone about his strategy. I am having a really hard time picturing that happeneing.

But what if he is Scum!Sweet? Then he rolls up to Discord after the whole thing ends and says "Yeah, I just figured that if I went a littel crazy and started hard claiming all the rolls, nobody would expect I would call so much attention to myself unnecessarily as Scum. And it worked!"

Then he is respected and lauded.

I can see Sweet taking that kind of risk as Scum!Sweet. It's not a terrible play. It's really not that difficult to execute. It gives him a bit of a shield and an excuse for not engaging very hard in the scumhunting part of the game. And I think it has had a very predictable outcome so far -- namely that many people have considered Sweet untouchable for doing exactly this.

I don't see Town!Sweet taking this risk. If this gambit fails for Town!Sweet, it is a complete embarrassment.

I think that Scum!Sweet is much more likely.

If this is it for me, my legacy guess is Sweetandcool, Jamiet, rdrivera, and... Fish!

Good luck.

I think this was Balki's first mention of lfischl.

[Jamiet99uk]

My guess for the remaining three is kotp rdr Bozo

what about rdr-bozo-kotp?

Could be

Bozo kotp & someone unexpected

It is strange that damo and lfischl both come up with the same combination out of 165 possible combinations at about the same time. Then damo reacts to lfischl posting the same reads by changing his to back out rdrivera.

Maybe we were the mis-kills the mafia decided to go for and lfischl had not read the damo post.

Are you now theorising that Lfischl and Damo are scum partners?

[bozotheclown]

##vote food

damo's sequence here gets him in my towncore

I like Damo too. He is way more engaged in this game than I have seen him Day 1.

I like you Damo.

This was Balki's first mention of damo.

[bozotheclown]

My guess for the remaining three is kotp rdr Bozo

Could be

Bozo kotp & someone unexpected

It is strange that damo and lfischl both come up with the same combination out of 165 possible combinations at about the same time. Then damo reacts to lfischl posting the same reads by changing his to back out rdrivera.

Maybe we were the mis-kills the mafia decided to go for and lfischl had not read the damo post.

Are you now theorising that Lfischl and Damo are scum partners?

I am considering the possibility.

[dargorygel]

##GM NOTE

Calamity Jane is perhaps the most famous of the wild women of the West and for good reason. She pretty much did it all when it comes to the things that brought these women notoriety. She skillfully shot a gun, told tall tales, dabbled in prostitution, committed hefty crimes, and drank—a lot.
Besides her reputation as a drunken outlaw, Calamity Jane was known for her generous heart. She and her siblings were orphaned when Jane was 14, and she took it upon herself to care for them.

This responsibility helped to shape her into a true enigma. While one of her earliest-known careers was as a dance hall girl, she also became famous for wearing men’s clothing and riding alongside the roughest cowboys on whatever work or action she could find.

Jane ended up with a plethora of careers, including a short stint as a storyteller in Buffalo Bill’s Wild West Show. However, none of these careers lasted long due to Jane’s unfortunate chronic alcoholism.
Like many of the notable characters from the Wild West, Jane was unashamed about telling a fib. She is known for being a sidekick of Wild Bill Hickok and bragged about their friendship until the day she died. However, many who knew them both said that Jane was, in fact, obsessed with Bill rather than having a true partnership or friendship with him.
Although she was buried next to him, his friends said at the time that the location of the burial was a joke on Hickok. He was rumored to have said that he had “absolutely no use” for Jane.

VOTE COUNT

kingofthepirates (3) damo, Bunny, rdr
FlaviusAetius (2) Demon, sweet
lfischl (2) Flav, kotp
Jamiet99uk (1) bozo
bozotheclown (1) Jamie

LFISCHL is slated to die.
KINGOTHEPIRATES is slated to die.

DAY DAY DAY ends in just under 5 and a half hours.

[DemonRHK]

Uh...game?

[bozotheclown]

PART 2

- The few hard townreads (what, me and who else?) are apparently outweighed by the scumreads (since he’s the lead wagon early).

I don't follow what you are saying here. Are you talking about my reads? My townreads are Flavius, Pirate, Brain, Chaqa, maybe Damo too now, and you too now.

- I’m not sure I agree that tightroping several fakeclaims in a meta so hostile to them is “easy.”

I disagree that the meta is hostile to fakeclaims in this context. So, we just disagree on that premise. But this point of yours also fails to account for this particular flavor of fake claim, which is new and unusual for the reasons I described.

- He may have gotten PR hunting leads, sure. Ironically, he’s posted that he was finding “fake crumbs” from Bunny. I would think mafia actually trying to PR hunt with this tactic would keep those thoughts to himself, but maybe not.

We're in that wifom hole again. I feel like your main analysis is just to talk about two sides of a wifom, and choose the Town side for no apparent reason. I find that Mafia frequently do things that they think look pro-town. Calling out "fake crumbs" would be a great example of that, but I can see both sides of this one for sure.

- Being able to bail on a plan isn’t really a benefit to it per se. It may make the actual benefits less risky to pursue, but if he were worried about an escape plan, he could just do something else altogether.

I agree with this, but it doesn't really tell us much. I agree that either could be true.

It’s also notable that none of these really fit into a team-focused view of the game. How’s this helping his team? I recognize this isn’t the fairest question (if you’re town you wouldn’t really know; if you’re mafia then it’s moot), but to be as confident as you seem to be in sweet being mafia, I would expect some kind of vision for how his gambit fits in with the rest of the team.

I have no idea. Frankly, I do not know if the default here is for Mafia to chat during a Night 0 before the game. But whether they do or they do not, I have no theory about "how his gambit fits in with the rest of his team." That isn't really the kind of thing I look for before we have found our first wolf.

Long story short, despite your objections, you seem to undersell the utility of sweet’s play as town and oversell it as mafia. And you seem very certain about it too.

I am not "fairly certain." I just think this is our best bet.

And I genuinely don't think there is "utility to Sweet's play" if he is Town. There are things that could possibly happen around him that could wind up being good for Town, but that is true of any action at all in the game.

I suppose town could feel that way, but I would expect more caution. And mafia pushing an agenda certainly would (pretend to) feel this way, so at the least you’re failing to stake out a position that must come from town here. And I think it fits a lot more into what I imagine the mafia vision to be, which is aggressively pushing for a couple of early miskills to get their guns online and then volley their way to victory. You can afford to be a lot more aggressive in pushing sweet if you’re mafia and you should be feeling a lot of pressure to get this right if you’re town. Your behavior fits the former profile, IMO.

This point doesn't really make sense. More caution? I am casing a scumread. I don't think this is bold or risky. I had a thought about his alignment, and I shared it. What is risky about that?

I do not gather that your townreads are committal at all, though. We can’t really know from the outside, and I guess they’re not being tested all that much since they’re not being broadly voted for.

I'm not sure why you say I'm not committal. I encourage you to read my ISO and bring out examples. I think I am probably being more committal than usual for this part of the game. That's a hard thing to gauge, but it is surprising to me that you take the opposite view, and I am interested to know how you drew that conclusion. Maybe challenge it yourself by looking skeptically at my ISO.

Maybe you could update me (us? if anyone is still reading…?) with some more comprehensive reads so I can see how your view is developed. Cuz it seems kinda “grab bag” to me.

I just think this is lazy by you. My reads are comprehensive in that I've shared my thoughts on most of the players in the game and I've guessed a full scum team. I have some pretty hard town reads that I don't think are going to change much without some flips. I don't think I've solved the whole game, but I think I have a solid set of town reads and decent POE. That would look like this:

POE: Sweet, Jamiet, rdrivera, Fish, Demon, Bozo, worcej, BunnyG in that order from flip first to flip last.
Town: Balki, Flava, Brainbomb, Eden, KPOP, Chaqa, Damo

I’m also not sure how you get away with claiming sweet is not a viable or easy miskill here when he’s the lead wagon halfway through lol. Obviously plenty of time for that to change, but there’s ample appetite to kill him.

If we're going to use this kind of "results based analysis" than I could respond with, "see, me trying to push a Sweet wagon has given me the most attention I've recevied all game! Look at that!"

I'm not going to say that. It's silly. Obviously I wouldn't have known what you or anyone would else would do in response to my push.

So for the same reason, please judge my case on Sweet at the time I made it and not based on the results. I started pushing Sweet at the end of night. He was not one of the leading wagons at the prior EOD, and I think it was fairly predictable that there would be some adamant Sweet defenders today, as the "in the spotlight" moves that he has made this game frequently earn defenders. I think that's why he made the play in the first place.

Balki added damo to his town reads, despite hedging his read by say "maybe damo".

3 out of 6 of Balki's town reads have flipped town, with the other 3 still unknown. I think damo seems more likely to be a teammate he put there over kingofthepirates or FlaviusAetius.

[damo666]

##GM NOTE

Calamity Jane is perhaps the most famous of the wild women of the West and for good reason. She pretty much did it all when it comes to the things that brought these women notoriety. She skillfully shot a gun, told tall tales, dabbled in prostitution, committed hefty crimes, and drank—a lot.
Besides her reputation as a drunken outlaw, Calamity Jane was known for her generous heart. She and her siblings were orphaned when Jane was 14, and she took it upon herself to care for them.

This responsibility helped to shape her into a true enigma. While one of her earliest-known careers was as a dance hall girl, she also became famous for wearing men’s clothing and riding alongside the roughest cowboys on whatever work or action she could find.

Jane ended up with a plethora of careers, including a short stint as a storyteller in Buffalo Bill’s Wild West Show. However, none of these careers lasted long due to Jane’s unfortunate chronic alcoholism.
Like many of the notable characters from the Wild West, Jane was unashamed about telling a fib. She is known for being a sidekick of Wild Bill Hickok and bragged about their friendship until the day she died. However, many who knew them both said that Jane was, in fact, obsessed with Bill rather than having a true partnership or friendship with him.
Although she was buried next to him, his friends said at the time that the location of the burial was a joke on Hickok. He was rumored to have said that he had “absolutely no use” for Jane.

VOTE COUNT

kingofthepirates (3) damo, Bunny, rdr
FlaviusAetius (2) Demon, sweet
lfischl (2) Flav, kotp
Jamiet99uk (1) bozo
bozotheclown (1) Jamie

LFISCHL is slated to die.
KINGOTHEPIRATES is slated to die.

Game ends in just under 5 and a half hours.

WHAT!!!!?????

[bozotheclown]

Uh...game?

We better get this right then.

[damo666]

I think I'm realising why I was scumreading bozo lol!

[sweetandcool]

Mafia Team:

brainbomb
Balki
Bunny
Flavius or lfischl

I am not paying attention to this game.

Bunny is top wagon atm. No one voted BB with me (and yes I don’t count you) when really given the chance.

I will happily vote for Chaqa, Flavius, or you for for the bitching of brain yet disappearance.

So your reasoning is Bunny is top wagon and that's it?

Yikes, I know how infuriating it is when you are Town and people vote you because you are top wagon.

##VOTE King instead.

Why did you choose kingofthepirates there?

1. At that point in the game I was scumreading brainbomb because I thought he was PR. My whole distraction with telling Bunny I found his crumbs was an attempt to communicate with brainbomb. My hope was for brainbomb to know I was actually talking about him, and since he was not RB or NK I would be townclear in his eyes.

So I actually thought he was possibly playing the same game of scumreading me as a form of protection. Was disappointed later when it became clear he didn't trust me.

2. I was cooling a little bit on the idea of Balki being Mafia. I still was kind of convinced by Eden, but I worried it would be more T vT kind of like Vecna and brainbomb, and if Balki was Town it would be horrible to lose him.

3. Bunny was my top scumread at the time, but worcej's post convinced me to move. EoD if Bunny was a potential DK, I think I might have flipped back.

4. Not sure why I didn't vote Flav. I think at the time it just seemed like that wagon wouldn't fly. And I was starting to realize how scum-like Pirate's lurking was becoming.

[sweetandcool]

There have been 5 VTs removed from the game and 6 left in the game, so there is a good chance at least one town gun was removed before being activated.

1 mafia has been removed, so it is possible one mafia gun was removed before being activated.

If the mafia shot worcej, then they had 2 guns activate D2, which would mean there is a 50% chance Balki used a gun D2 and the mafia have 2 guns left.

Case 1: mafia shot worcej, Balki used a gun
7-3 with 2 mafia shots left, a D3 mis-kill would be a mafia win without an accurate town shot

Case 2: mafia shot worcej, Balki did not use a gun
7-3 with 1 mafia shot left, town can afford a mis-kill without an inaccurate town shot

Case 3: town shot worcej, Balki used a gun
7-3 with 3 mafia shots left, a D3 mis-kill would be a mafia win without an accurate town shot

Case 4: town shot worcej, Balki did not use a gun
7-3 with 2 mafia shots left, a D3 mis-kill would be a mafia win without an accurate town shot

If I assume the mafia shot worcej, since it has not been claimed, there is 50% chance of case 1, where an accurate DK would mean that town has a "free shot", where a missed shot would not cost us the game, making it effectively 3-2 D4 instead of 4-2.

However, it would also mean there is a 50% chance of case 2, where a missed DK would mean that a missed shot could cost town the game.

Sweet claims he shot worcej.

Does this mean you should shoot sweet?

Did brain tell us whom he shot?

I retracted that claim.

brainbomb claimed he shot Chaqa.

[sweetandcool]

The thing about this game being ultra-swingy could probably move certain players to play differently than they normally would.

-Balki has been very under the radar and Ive not really seen him try to solve anyone the way he did when I was scum. He's doing the thing I do where he judges and comments, rather than prods and experiments. Plus, he has not called anyone servile to rile them up.

-Chaqa did that very good post, that might have totally fooled me spectacularly. However, if he really had already gotten to the point of having such a good oversight, where was LEADER CHAQA that we have seen in the past when he was super involved. If Chaqa is scum, this will probably be the first time in history he does not N1 me because they probably dont wanna use their 1 NK right now.

-Rdrivera was actually more active and had way more attractive opinions than he normally does. He also seemed to be afraid of getting killed early for some reason, which never ever happens.

-Jamiet actually did not really get angry even though there was plenty of reason for it to happen. I might have to revisit my initial gutsensation of his progression 1-2-3 not making sense.

-Sweet has really used his gimmick as a shield to not really actually interact with the game and solve it. I did really like that big wallpost he did explaining his shit though, but im not sure if its enough.

this is the post that got vecna nightkilled.

he names the vast majority of the mafia team here in Jamie, Sweet, and Balki. the only scum he misses in the process is Kotp who stayed relatively UTR or in vecnas TRs.

Vecna explains exactly why Balki, Sweet, and Jamie are each mafia, ignoring their posturing and bussing. This then prompts Balki and team to need to kill Vecna, and the following day also go a step further, to double down on EACH other as it were. Knowing guns may be in play sweet is deemed the team sacrifice, where they falsely assume that multiple town might just shoot sweet. So their goal is to case sweet, and put multiple mafia on sweet most of the day.

As the day goes along, Balki and Jamie both lose their appetite for the process seeing only brainbomb and bunny join the sweet bait. At that point Jamie who probably had the gun is trying to choose between killing bunny or killing sweet. (my guess based on how Jamie indented his posts weirdly on those two).

Each scum also sets aside a preferred miskill they think they can get, and a towny they think they can manipulate. Jamie thinks chaqa is able to be steered, so jamie tries to steer chaqa onto bozo, and tries to also feed chaqas distrust of damo.

sweet tries to feed the collective distrust of brainbomb and of lfischl.

while Balki tries to make jamie and sweet look good by bussing them.

all the while, KOTP is just laying low, doing what he does best. occasionally show up to make a bland string of questions, leave abruptly and never discuss much else

This could be correct, it would explain why sweetandcool is now 100% certain kingofthepirates is mafia if he decided to bus him, and would also explain why sweetandcool is not currently voting for the player he is certain is mafia.

Yes I am bussing Pirate. Let's get him today and then I will bus my other teammate tomorrow.

##VOTE King