M 90: Shootout at the Pretty Good Corral

[FlaviusAetius]

I would also vote Lfischl since he is in that pool and is not even posting.

He last posted 36 hours ago and I'm inclined to agree with Sweet's policy point on this, at this point. (Sorry Lfischl not trying to be mean, but your absence is not helping town and it could be scum-indicative (not despite your meta of often lurking, but because of it).

D3 is the best time to kill a lurker and there's three, I will not vote one of the three lurkers just because they lurk there must be something more

[FlaviusAetius]

@bozo are you going to announce your shot in order to avoid a double tap by way of voting or another gun being active?

I haven't considered a downside but nothing immediately springs to mind.

yes

If you announce it do it near EOD then

[damo666]

pre-gun analysis, which is in my eyes an indicator of town hope and possible error.
##call GM
If mafia flips, will it say if they are gunman (and activation date), or will it always simply flip as mafia?
Also is cowboy an indicator of guns (that is, the cowboy would've received a gun in the future), or just flavor for VT?

GM Response:

Re: Mafia flips. It will not say.

Re: Flavor. There is no information hidden in the flavor. It is for fun, and while darg and I hope you read it, there is no in-game advantage that derives from it.

For Flav

[FlaviusAetius]

Agreed. @bozo unless you shoot scum today you’re in my top 3.

Can you be more specific about what you agree with?

It feels like you’re portraying yourself being solvy town rather than are actually being yourself being solvy town.

You both are town, bozo is being a solvy town and has done a lot on that front

[damo666]

Flashwagon? The only thing bozo should assure us it that the top wagon(s) will not be shot

What if there is another unannounced active town gun?

There isnt
brainbomb died EoN2 - He was Heath Barkley (of The Big Valley), a Day 2 lawman.
President Eden died EoD2 - He was the Sheriff!
worcej died EoD2 - He was an innocent cowboy!
Chaqa died EoD2 - He was an innocent cowboy!

3 people with guns are dead

You do not know this.

[damo666]

The other towns that died are down as VT's , worcej and chaqa are unactivated lawmen

Wrong. "Cowboy" does not imply lawman.

[FlaviusAetius]

pre-gun analysis, which is in my eyes an indicator of town hope and possible error.
##call GM
If mafia flips, will it say if they are gunman (and activation date), or will it always simply flip as mafia?
Also is cowboy an indicator of guns (that is, the cowboy would've received a gun in the future), or just flavor for VT?

GM Response:

Re: Mafia flips. It will not say.

Re: Flavor. There is no information hidden in the flavor. It is for fun, and while darg and I hope you read it, there is no in-game advantage that derives from it.

For Flav

oh I didnt really understand that post I thought KOTP was hinting he might have a gun but I wasnt sure, guess we are back to shrodinger situation as far as mafia know there are 3 guns active today
BOZO should def shoot, I think having a gun everyday isnt a bad idea so that 3rd, & 4th guys up to them if they want to reveal
I told bozo he should announce who he wants to kill near EOD so no risk of double tap

[FlaviusAetius]

If agunman isnt going to be on at EOD then I wish they revealed and not bozo BUT they should just not shoot today or reveal anything

[FlaviusAetius]

Morning all. I'm caught up.

bozo is town. I think his waving the gun around threatening is dumb, but scum don't claim guns.

The RB claim from kotp is fucking me up. With a dead cop the RB is useless, why even use it?

So there are two schools of thought:

The RB is real, and the scum team has no goddamn clue what they are doing. Which would make me suspect Flav, fish, and likely a heavy lurk like rdr.

The RB is a ploy, which leads me to a big brain play attempt, I think king was browbeat into the claim by a teammate. That leads me to Jamie. Jamie, Flav, fish?

The issue lies with bozo right now. Us winning or losing is on him. He's going to fucking shoot me, and has made no attempt to hide it. That means if we kill wrong, AND scum has a gun, we lose.

We have to be right today, and there is one scum I am sure on.

##Vote Flav

And for senor 2nd amendment, I'm currently on Flav, fish, rdr.

I have plenty idea what Im doing Im not a newbie to mafia or webdip mafia although WebDip mafia is a step above anything else Ive played these things arent hard to understand either
The RB is a ploy the RB is real goodness gracious NO ONE knows thats the point why the mafia would have or havent done it! Its NAI and shouldnt be used for anything

NO ONE has put a proper case on KOTP yet and that much is ridiculous
Youve been against me D1 is it because of my posting style because I dont use capitals or >< anymore so thats fixed
Is it because of my case on food ? Tell me WHY it was wrong and were you were to say anything against it

Is it because I talk about everything with everyone?
Cmon man I want specifics not just a general vibe that "flav doesnt know what hes doing"

[FlaviusAetius]

Why are you sure about Flavius?

Balki.

D1, Flav was out doing that parroting bullshit, and Balki came in white knighting for him.

I backed off D2 because I did that tunnel shit last game and got a PR killed.

Then Eden came out with that scan, and we got Balki. It makes D1 make so much god damn sense.

Balki white knighted me because he felt bad for me the same thing that was happening last game was happening this game and you do realize it was not just Balki several people stood up for me which was nice but now all those people are dead I WONDER WHY

[FlaviusAetius]

Good morning everyone. gun analysis ended up being a brick wall since it had assumptions regarding flavor and Balki's status (mainly the latter). 2 predictions for final scum are as follows:
1. Flavius. Already mentioned before.
2. fish. several people complaining about my lurking and fluff (and yes, I was sick following a 4th of July outing), but from my bot reading, fish has added even less than I have (objectively by character count, and IMHO substance).

scum number 3 eludes me, I'll read back more in the afternoon. Last night (in bed thinking) I was entertaining ideas of rdr or jamie for final scum, but I intend on reading through the bot more to see if there's any sort of suspicious interaction between my first 2 scum predictions and anyone else.

Where did you mention me being scum before and for what reasons?

[FlaviusAetius]

It's fine. You aren't one of the Massholes.

So I am behind a large chunk of N2 up to now. There a reason we ain't voting fish for that really ugly stall attempt on the hammer?

Why do you scum read lfischl for that and not sweetandcool, who did this:

First, much respect and props to my adversary Balki in our skirmishes today. If you are mafia, you’re forcing me to sacrifice any future equity in this role to seal the deal, respect. If you are town, sorry in advance because this is gonna be a shitshow lol.

Second, thanks to my erstwhile Deputy sweetandcool for giving me the cover needed to complete my investigation.

I am the Sheriff. I discovered last night that Balki Bartokomous is a bad guy. I am highly confident that sweetandcool is town and that kingofthepirates is mafia. I propose that a Lawman shoot KOTP and that we vote out Balki here. We can do the reverse as well.

Some commentary:

1. Why am I revealing now?

I believe I’ve sufficiently obvtowned and threatened the mafia enough that I will die before I get another scan off—whether through outlaw shot or nightkill. I also believe we badly need to hit mafia here to get back on track after the Desperado fiasco. The payoff of hitting mafia!Balki here is worth sacrificing any future equity in my role.

2. Isn’t it true that your scan could be wrong?

YES, but we don’t have anything close to as good as what I’m serving up, and we badly need a hit here. For those who don’t know, the Sheriff works like this:

- 50% of the time I’m a normal cop with fully reliable scans.
- 25% of the time I’m a “lazy” cop, meaning my FIRST scan is reliable, but all subsequent scans are just copies of the first scan. This means I’m effectively a one-shot cop in this world, but don’t know it immediately.
- 25% of the time I’m a “bad” cop, meaning all my scans are the opposite of the truth. In this world, Balki is town and I’ve possibly blown the entire game by revealing.

I decided a 25% chance of busting is an acceptable risk, given what’s at stake. If Balki is mafia, the odds actually favor him NOT having an active gun yet, so killing him saves a miskill for later. I think we’ve also got a LOT of good associative reads to work with if Balki does flip. And with due respect to my teammates, none of all have a case anywhere close to 75% reliability.

So we’re fucking going for it and if we lose we lose.

3. So sweetandcool fakeclaimed, why don’t you think he’s scum?

Balki’s push on sweet near the end of N1 doesn’t make any sense as SvS to me. This setup strongly incentivizes mafia not to bus early because they don’t know when their individual members will get guns. Balki’s push had no prior foundation that required him to remain consistent, and he had a cornucopia of other targets, so choosing sweetandcool to bus there is dubious to me. sweet also didn’t do much in the way of possible scum theater to further sell Balki’s towniness for the push OR to get towncred himself if Balki died unexpectedly.

I also strongly believe sweet had zero incentive to do his fakeclaiming shenanigans as scum, and I think it’s telling that the most vocal advocate of that theory today is my guilty scan target. If you’re voting him or thinking of voting him because you’re annoyed with his shenanigans, you need to reassess.

4. Why KOTP?

I noted earlier in the game that KOTP joined the foodcoats wagon at an opportunistic moment. Others have commented on why he’s suspicious generally.

I’m just going to call attention to Balki’s stretch to townread KOTP:

https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=416732#p416732

This screams mafia rehabilitating mafia teammate to me. Chaqa rightly noted that KOTP’s posts were fluffy and left little impression. I think there’s a somewhat reasonable argument that Balki was perhaps reaching to give a nuanced townread on someone who would flip town, to be fair, so I’ll leave it at that.

5. Other thoughts?

I didn’t like the way Balki and Bunny were playing grab-ass in the thread early in the long N1. Bunny also dropped off a cliff and hasn’t done much to earn a positive impression in his return. I think there’s a nontrivial chance of teammates being there.

Chaqa, Flavius, and sweetandcool are in my never-kill pile.
bozo, brain, damo, Demon, Jamie, lfischl, rdr all feel good to me.
I guess that literally just leaves a team of Balki/KOTP/Bunny/worcej lol… I’m sure I don’t have the full solve for you, but I firmly believe in my never-kill pile, I firmly believe in Balki/KOTP.

##VOTE Eden

I hard CC you.

Actually, best not to resolve the CC battle today, especially since there is a chance this is VT theater.

##VOTE King

What sweetandcool did here still doesnt sit right with me he either needs to be shot or go down D4 his response "oh I was trying to protect Eden" makes no sense

[bozotheclown]

Good point. Why are you so confident today that Jamiet and I are scum, but last phase you were not? You could have shot one of us!

I am still not certain of anything, but D2 I did not know Balki was mafia. Since we now probably do not have anymore mis-kills available, I plan on using the gun D3.

Just wondering is that actually true? Do we really only have one miskill left? I think its several

7-3 rn
6-3 if we MK
5-3 due to NK
one for spare incase mafia have a gun or you shoot wrong

The mafia could have 2 guns left.

[Jamiet99uk]

Why would he be surprised by your "sudden" town read of him if you have been town reading him since at least 2 hours before D1 EOD?

My sudden ACTIVE Townread of him. That is what he is surprised by.

As opposed to my previous PASSIVE town read of him.

There is a huge difference.

E.g. I passively Townread RHK. But if I had time to critically analyze him in the most rigorous way possible, I would either find reasons to possibly scumread him, or my passive Townread of him would solidify into an active Townread of him.

Im very surprised that out of everyone left you are choosing Jamie to townclear that doesnt make much sense

He said he townreads me, not that I am townclear.

[Jamiet99uk]

The other towns that died are down as VT's , worcej and chaqa are unactivated lawmen

You don't know this, they could just have been plain VTs.

There are some ordinary VTs in this setup too, who never become Lawmen.

[Jamiet99uk]

I would also vote Lfischl since he is in that pool and is not even posting.

He last posted 36 hours ago and I'm inclined to agree with Sweet's policy point on this, at this point. (Sorry Lfischl not trying to be mean, but your absence is not helping town and it could be scum-indicative (not despite your meta of often lurking, but because of it).

D3 is the best time to kill a lurker and there's three, I will not vote one of the three lurkers just because they lurk there must be something more

"Today is the best time to kill a lurker; I will not vote for one of the lurkers"

This is a very contradictory statement, Flav. Can you explain?

[Jamiet99uk]

Predictions of the final 3 mafia:

bozo: RHK, Jamie, sweetandcool
sweetandcool: Flavius, kingofthepirates, bozo
Jamie: bozo, lfischl, kingofthepirates
rdrivera: lfischl, Jamie, Flavius
BunnyGo: kingofthepirates, lfischl, Jamie
damo: kingofthepirates, lfischl, RHK
RHK: Flavius, lfischl, rdrivera

Jamie, kingofthepirates, rdr

Still catching up, internet is awful right now so that and responses will be slow

Catch up faster. You are now the worst lurker.

##Vote Lfischl.

[bozotheclown]

There have been 5 VTs removed from the game and 6 left in the game, so there is a good chance at least one town gun was removed before being activated.

1 mafia has been removed, so it is possible one mafia gun was removed before being activated.

If the mafia shot worcej, then they had 2 guns activate D2, which would mean there is a 50% chance Balki used a gun D2 and the mafia have 2 guns left.

Case 1: mafia shot worcej, Balki used a gun
7-3 with 2 mafia shots left, a D3 mis-kill would be a mafia win without an accurate town shot

Case 2: mafia shot worcej, Balki did not use a gun
7-3 with 1 mafia shot left, town can afford a mis-kill without an inaccurate town shot

Case 3: town shot worcej, Balki used a gun
7-3 with 3 mafia shots left, a D3 mis-kill would be a mafia win without an accurate town shot

Case 4: town shot worcej, Balki did not use a gun
7-3 with 2 mafia shots left, a D3 mis-kill would be a mafia win without an accurate town shot

If I assume the mafia shot worcej, since it has not been claimed, there is 50% chance of case 1, where an accurate DK would mean that town has a "free shot", where a missed shot would not cost us the game, making it effectively 3-2 D4 instead of 4-2.

However, it would also mean there is a 50% chance of case 2, where a missed DK would mean that a missed shot could cost town the game.

[bozotheclown]

I thought the agreement was lawmen should stay hidden. This is scummy posting here

Even knowing that a lawman shot worcej (I agree on other two) then we still have no idea how many lawmen are left.

The gunned, unfired lawmen need to hide.

Scum likely know what shots were taken, and a spent lawmen is nothing more than the softest of clears, as we can't confirm them.

And they hide in a crowd.

But I'll help. I was the one who shot worcej.

Hard claim!

This claim was very unhelpful to town trying to determine if the mafia shot worcej, so I think sweetandcool is just fake claiming anything possible without considering if it is beneficial to town.

[Jamiet99uk]

The gunned, unfired lawmen need to hide.

Scum likely know what shots were taken, and a spent lawmen is nothing more than the softest of clears, as we can't confirm them.

And they hide in a crowd.

But I'll help. I was the one who shot John F. Kennedy, JR Ewing, and Mr. Burns.

Hard claim!

This claim was very unhelpful to town trying to determine if the mafia shot worcej, so I think sweetandcool is just fake claiming anything possible without considering if it is beneficial to town.

I agree with you on this, Bozo.