M 90: Shootout at the Pretty Good Corral

[bozotheclown]

I guess there is a non-zero chance Worc shot Chaqa, but I doubt it.

##CALL GM

Is the 4th flavor ONLY flavor, or were there really 4 shots?

Why worcej shooting Chaqa but not Chaqa shooting worcej?

[bozotheclown]

It's fine. You aren't one of the Massholes.

So I am behind a large chunk of N2 up to now. There a reason we ain't voting fish for that really ugly stall attempt on the hammer?

Why do you scum read lfischl for that and not sweetandcool, who did this:

First, much respect and props to my adversary Balki in our skirmishes today. If you are mafia, you’re forcing me to sacrifice any future equity in this role to seal the deal, respect. If you are town, sorry in advance because this is gonna be a shitshow lol.

Second, thanks to my erstwhile Deputy sweetandcool for giving me the cover needed to complete my investigation.

I am the Sheriff. I discovered last night that Balki Bartokomous is a bad guy. I am highly confident that sweetandcool is town and that kingofthepirates is mafia. I propose that a Lawman shoot KOTP and that we vote out Balki here. We can do the reverse as well.

Some commentary:

1. Why am I revealing now?

I believe I’ve sufficiently obvtowned and threatened the mafia enough that I will die before I get another scan off—whether through outlaw shot or nightkill. I also believe we badly need to hit mafia here to get back on track after the Desperado fiasco. The payoff of hitting mafia!Balki here is worth sacrificing any future equity in my role.

2. Isn’t it true that your scan could be wrong?

YES, but we don’t have anything close to as good as what I’m serving up, and we badly need a hit here. For those who don’t know, the Sheriff works like this:

- 50% of the time I’m a normal cop with fully reliable scans.
- 25% of the time I’m a “lazy” cop, meaning my FIRST scan is reliable, but all subsequent scans are just copies of the first scan. This means I’m effectively a one-shot cop in this world, but don’t know it immediately.
- 25% of the time I’m a “bad” cop, meaning all my scans are the opposite of the truth. In this world, Balki is town and I’ve possibly blown the entire game by revealing.

I decided a 25% chance of busting is an acceptable risk, given what’s at stake. If Balki is mafia, the odds actually favor him NOT having an active gun yet, so killing him saves a miskill for later. I think we’ve also got a LOT of good associative reads to work with if Balki does flip. And with due respect to my teammates, none of all have a case anywhere close to 75% reliability.

So we’re fucking going for it and if we lose we lose.

3. So sweetandcool fakeclaimed, why don’t you think he’s scum?

Balki’s push on sweet near the end of N1 doesn’t make any sense as SvS to me. This setup strongly incentivizes mafia not to bus early because they don’t know when their individual members will get guns. Balki’s push had no prior foundation that required him to remain consistent, and he had a cornucopia of other targets, so choosing sweetandcool to bus there is dubious to me. sweet also didn’t do much in the way of possible scum theater to further sell Balki’s towniness for the push OR to get towncred himself if Balki died unexpectedly.

I also strongly believe sweet had zero incentive to do his fakeclaiming shenanigans as scum, and I think it’s telling that the most vocal advocate of that theory today is my guilty scan target. If you’re voting him or thinking of voting him because you’re annoyed with his shenanigans, you need to reassess.

4. Why KOTP?

I noted earlier in the game that KOTP joined the foodcoats wagon at an opportunistic moment. Others have commented on why he’s suspicious generally.

I’m just going to call attention to Balki’s stretch to townread KOTP:

https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=416732#p416732

This screams mafia rehabilitating mafia teammate to me. Chaqa rightly noted that KOTP’s posts were fluffy and left little impression. I think there’s a somewhat reasonable argument that Balki was perhaps reaching to give a nuanced townread on someone who would flip town, to be fair, so I’ll leave it at that.

5. Other thoughts?

I didn’t like the way Balki and Bunny were playing grab-ass in the thread early in the long N1. Bunny also dropped off a cliff and hasn’t done much to earn a positive impression in his return. I think there’s a nontrivial chance of teammates being there.

Chaqa, Flavius, and sweetandcool are in my never-kill pile.
bozo, brain, damo, Demon, Jamie, lfischl, rdr all feel good to me.
I guess that literally just leaves a team of Balki/KOTP/Bunny/worcej lol… I’m sure I don’t have the full solve for you, but I firmly believe in my never-kill pile, I firmly believe in Balki/KOTP.

##VOTE Eden

I hard CC you.

Actually, best not to resolve the CC battle today, especially since there is a chance this is VT theater.

##VOTE King

[bozotheclown]

There were two posts, one of which went into great detail, and which you replied to, and then conveniently forgot about.

The details of that post were setting out what it would look like if I was scum contriving to pretend to get emotional. As I read it, Sweet concluded that this is not an accurate picture of what actually happened, and that my reaction was genuine, not contrived, and that I am Town.

This is the correct conclusion. I am Town.

Did you know sweetandcool has been town reading you since D1?

We were arguing so much on D1 that I did not think he was.

It became clear to when he explicitly started saying it.

Why?

You indicated sweetandcool "suddenly" started town reading you today.

[DemonRHK]

I guess there is a non-zero chance Worc shot Chaqa, but I doubt it.

##CALL GM

Is the 4th flavor ONLY flavor, or were there really 4 shots?

Why worcej shooting Chaqa but not Chaqa shooting worcej?

Because I respect Chaqa and would assumed we wouldn't pull an anti-town play like firing unannounced. Worc is more prone to off the cuff plays like that and claiming in the aftermath.

[bozotheclown]

@Bozo:'

This it was if reminding you need:

Ack, RIP Brainbomb.

I'm wondering if scum killed him there to lock in his (inaccurate) read on me. Clearly he was as keen as mustard to send me to Boot Hill. But sadly that would not be in Town's interests.

Why didn't you think it was because he was suspecting sweetandcool?

[DemonRHK]

It's fine. You aren't one of the Massholes.

So I am behind a large chunk of N2 up to now. There a reason we ain't voting fish for that really ugly stall attempt on the hammer?

Why do you scum read lfischl for that and not sweetandcool, who did this:

##VOTE Eden

I hard CC you.

Actually, best not to resolve the CC battle today, especially since there is a chance this is VT theater.

##VOTE King

Because sweet has been shit posting all game, and it was a painfully obvious attempt to save Eden from getting shot.

[bozotheclown]

Predictions of the final 3 mafia:

bozo: RHK, Jamie, sweetandcool
sweetandcool: Flavius, kingofthepirates, bozo
Jamie: bozo, lfischl, kingofthepirates
rdrivera: lfischl, Jamie, Flavius
BunnyGo: kingofthepirates, lfischl, Jamie
damo: kingofthepirates, lfischl, RHK
RHK: Flavius, lfischl, rdrivera
lfischl: Jamie, kingofthepirates, rdrivera
kingofthepirates: Flavius, lfischl, ?

[bozotheclown]

Why are you sure about Flavius?

Balki.

D1, Flav was out doing that parroting bullshit, and Balki came in white knighting for him.

I backed off D2 because I did that tunnel shit last game and got a PR killed.

Then Eden came out with that scan, and we got Balki. It makes D1 make so much god damn sense.

You dicks want to hound me out of the game on D1 because you don't like me in person?

I'm on the absolute cusp of asking to sub out.

you do realize the jamie wagon was CREATED and DIED last game for the same exact reasons? People who go after you ARE the ones we should be looking at because their taking an easy pot shot, but you freaking out over it is WEIRD to me because this happens to you every game, and ends the same way every game so how can you say THIS is the straw on the camel's back?

Flavius was Towning all over Page 9. Unfiltered. Solvey. Town.

Balki
Brainbomb
Flavius
K-POP

You guys can all be in my Towntree.

Do you think Balki started strongly town reading his teammate because of your one vote for Flavius?

[DemonRHK]

Do you think Balki started strongly town reading his teammate because of your one vote for Flavius?

I'm not that self-centered, but that is how I saw it. Could I be shaping it to fit what I want it to? Yes. Do I fucking care? No. I saw Balki make like a half a dozen posts and half of them were quoting or agreeing with Flav.

[rdrivera2005]

Do you think Balki started strongly town reading his teammate because of your one vote for Flavius?

I'm not that self-centered, but that is how I saw it. Could I be shaping it to fit what I want it to? Yes. Do I fucking care? No. I saw Balki make like a half a dozen posts and half of them were quoting or agreeing with Flav.

And you didn't consider this could be scum Balky buddying town Flavius?

[bozotheclown]

Do you think Balki started strongly town reading his teammate because of your one vote for Flavius?

I'm not that self-centered, but that is how I saw it. Could I be shaping it to fit what I want it to? Yes. Do I fucking care? No. I saw Balki make like a half a dozen posts and half of them were quoting or agreeing with Flav.

That seem more likely to be pocketing to me, unless Balki was deliberately going against the mafia expectations.

[DemonRHK]

Do you think Balki started strongly town reading his teammate because of your one vote for Flavius?

I'm not that self-centered, but that is how I saw it. Could I be shaping it to fit what I want it to? Yes. Do I fucking care? No. I saw Balki make like a half a dozen posts and half of them were quoting or agreeing with Flav.

And you didn't consider this could be scum Balky buddying town Flavius?

It's possible, but at the time it was the shorter side of the arguement. It would have been easier to come in on the majority side and not stand out.

And, admittedly, I have a bad habit of viewing that as defending instead of buddying in almost every case.

And, on top of all that, Flav's D1 itself ain't great. As I previously pointed out, lots of third-partying other conversation and cases without doing a lot. Just saying it LOUDER and in CAPS.

[FlaviusAetius]

##VOTE Pirate

Going to keep chugging along with my case on Flav.

If we don't vote out one of these guys today I am going to go crazy.

Im waiting

[FlaviusAetius]

Ack, RIP Brainbomb.

I'm wondering if scum killed him there to lock in his (inaccurate) read on me. Clearly he was as keen as mustard to send me to Boot Hill. But sadly that would not be in Town's interests.

However I think it's clear we need to ##VOTE SWEETANDCOOL

Also an option for why they killed brainbomb. The problem is that if he was wrong about you and wrong about me then I think it crazy that the scumteam would kill an ally who would help them drive the MKs they need.

NGL I think its mostly WIFOM maybe brain was right and so thats why mafia killed him maybe he was wrong so thats why mafia killed him I think the best thing to do is to look back through what he said and make determination from there

[FlaviusAetius]

Also an option for why they killed brainbomb. The problem is that if he was wrong about you and wrong about me then I think it crazy that the scumteam would kill an ally who would help them drive the MKs they need.

I don't think he was wrong about you.

You know, that's a good point. I think he WAS wrong about you.

So Mafia team is screwing with us.

OR maybe thats exactly what mafia want you to think
there is no point trying to guess why mafia did it we just need to look at brain's arguments and judge them for ourselves

I think the people he townread were mostly right but he got scum team wrong

[Jamiet99uk]

Did you know sweetandcool has been town reading you since D1?

We were arguing so much on D1 that I did not think he was.

It became clear to when he explicitly started saying it.

Why?

You indicated sweetandcool "suddenly" started town reading you today.

Yes because I had not noticed it until he explicitly started saying he townread me. I had not noticed it before that so my initial reaction was that his read had changed. I did not deem it particularly important to go back and double-check if he had been townreading me earlier than I realised; why would that be a good use of my time at that particular moment, Bozo?

Again this smacks of you trying to appear solve-y whilst actually what you are doing is demanding people answer irrelevant questions about irrelevant details.

[FlaviusAetius]

It's fine. You aren't one of the Massholes.

So I am behind a large chunk of N2 up to now. There a reason we ain't voting fish for that really ugly stall attempt on the hammer?

Why do you scum read lfischl for that and not sweetandcool, who did this:

##VOTE Eden

I hard CC you.

Actually, best not to resolve the CC battle today, especially since there is a chance this is VT theater.

##VOTE King

Because sweet has been shit posting all game, and it was a painfully obvious attempt to save Eden from getting shot.

WRONG. It was a painfully obvious attempt to cause chaos nothing but that

[Jamiet99uk]

@Bozo:'

This it was if reminding you need:

Ack, RIP Brainbomb.

I'm wondering if scum killed him there to lock in his (inaccurate) read on me. Clearly he was as keen as mustard to send me to Boot Hill. But sadly that would not be in Town's interests.

Why didn't you think it was because he was suspecting sweetandcool?

Because I am rather narcissistic and was more focussed on Brainbomb's read of me.

[FlaviusAetius]

##vote king

Know what why not fischl??
##vote fischl
If the whole argument for KOTP is that he is an average lurker why not fischl? I dont disagree its time to kill a lurker but is KOTP the right one? I've seen nothing that says he is, unless something comes out in the next few pages this is just silly

[FlaviusAetius]

I think sweetandcool and Jamie are following through on their preplanned post sequence and ignoring my EON post.

What EON post?