M 90: Shootout at the Pretty Good Corral

[damo666]

##vote jamie

Reason?

Fun

[brainbomb]

See damo gets it

[damo666]

I'm around from hereon to EOD

[FlaviusAetius]

I used to do it a lot myself, often in pretty brazen ways that amused me (and no one else).

Nowadays it’s pretty clear to me that crumbs have zero influence on whether anyone believes claims. So I think it’s just a subtle way to fuck with people (by faking crumbs) that can come from either alignment. I don’t even look for crumbs, and I don’t really care if they’re spotted.

I’m not sure what the broader meta is right now though.

Well, I already thought we were dealing with a scum Bunny when I spotted the crumbs, so I'm going to count it as scum points.

I have no idea what you’re talking about. You’ve never once seen me crumb in any game. If you go and look for games where I have crumbed, it was literally hidden in metadata and unmistakably a crumb.

I know you didn’t find anything like that because I didn’t do it.

I now leave 0 crumbs as PR.

You literally just saw a game like that.

But since people are posting long thoughts, I might actually write up my thoughts on “normative” good/bad play and “objective” good/bad play in games of teams with incomplete information. I think I may be the only actual expert of any such game here (we all suck at this one, I suck at bridge too, but have literally put in the 10000 hours of play and study and had moderate success) and I was realizing the other night sweet was pissing me off so much because he was conflating the two and insisting he’s correct while playing objectively horribly by imposing his normative beliefs and objecting to a normative team play (he’s not wrong the normative play could be different)


But I have homework to do and sitting in my hammock.

Sweet is still unCCd, huh?

Well…I screwed that up with Bona once.

##unvote. No need to vote him off for being obnoxious when we can just shoot him.

AGREED. Shoot him. ALSO on the crumb conversation I think crumbs are >real<, and their useful to find >even< if their fake its more information, not the >end all be all< BUT cant deny it

[damo666]

See damo gets it

## vote brain


Fun

[sweetandcool]

Pirate has provided a running commentary of the game with his few posts.

He has not attempted to solve at all, just vaguely sheeping.

We've seen new player Pirate sheep in a townie way, this is not it.

He is willfully lurking as scum.

Wholehearted agreement. Furthermore, I noted the way he joined the foodcoats wagon D1 was suspect. I also observe that Balki is 75+% to be mafia, and his defense of KOTP was a reach suggestive of mafia trying to cover for a teammate.

I hope you are willing to jump to King when the time comes.

I don't think the Balki wagon is going to fly, and there is a 25% chance you are wrong about him.

[Chaqa]

##Vote brain

FUN & interactive

[President Eden]

First, much respect and props to my adversary Balki in our skirmishes today. If you are mafia, you’re forcing me to sacrifice any future equity in this role to seal the deal, respect. If you are town, sorry in advance because this is gonna be a shitshow lol.

Second, thanks to my erstwhile Deputy sweetandcool for giving me the cover needed to complete my investigation.

I am the Sheriff. I discovered last night that Balki Bartokomous is a bad guy. I am highly confident that sweetandcool is town and that kingofthepirates is mafia. I propose that a Lawman shoot KOTP and that we vote out Balki here. We can do the reverse as well.

Some commentary:

1. Why am I revealing now?

I believe I’ve sufficiently obvtowned and threatened the mafia enough that I will die before I get another scan off—whether through outlaw shot or nightkill. I also believe we badly need to hit mafia here to get back on track after the Desperado fiasco. The payoff of hitting mafia!Balki here is worth sacrificing any future equity in my role.

2. Isn’t it true that your scan could be wrong?

YES, but we don’t have anything close to as good as what I’m serving up, and we badly need a hit here. For those who don’t know, the Sheriff works like this:

- 50% of the time I’m a normal cop with fully reliable scans.
- 25% of the time I’m a “lazy” cop, meaning my FIRST scan is reliable, but all subsequent scans are just copies of the first scan. This means I’m effectively a one-shot cop in this world, but don’t know it immediately.
- 25% of the time I’m a “bad” cop, meaning all my scans are the opposite of the truth. In this world, Balki is town and I’ve possibly blown the entire game by revealing.

I decided a 25% chance of busting is an acceptable risk, given what’s at stake. If Balki is mafia, the odds actually favor him NOT having an active gun yet, so killing him saves a miskill for later. I think we’ve also got a LOT of good associative reads to work with if Balki does flip. And with due respect to my teammates, none of all have a case anywhere close to 75% reliability.

So we’re fucking going for it and if we lose we lose.

3. So sweetandcool fakeclaimed, why don’t you think he’s scum?

Balki’s push on sweet near the end of N1 doesn’t make any sense as SvS to me. This setup strongly incentivizes mafia not to bus early because they don’t know when their individual members will get guns. Balki’s push had no prior foundation that required him to remain consistent, and he had a cornucopia of other targets, so choosing sweetandcool to bus there is dubious to me. sweet also didn’t do much in the way of possible scum theater to further sell Balki’s towniness for the push OR to get towncred himself if Balki died unexpectedly.

I also strongly believe sweet had zero incentive to do his fakeclaiming shenanigans as scum, and I think it’s telling that the most vocal advocate of that theory today is my guilty scan target. If you’re voting him or thinking of voting him because you’re annoyed with his shenanigans, you need to reassess.

4. Why KOTP?

I noted earlier in the game that KOTP joined the foodcoats wagon at an opportunistic moment. Others have commented on why he’s suspicious generally.

I’m just going to call attention to Balki’s stretch to townread KOTP:

https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=416732#p416732

This screams mafia rehabilitating mafia teammate to me. Chaqa rightly noted that KOTP’s posts were fluffy and left little impression. I think there’s a somewhat reasonable argument that Balki was perhaps reaching to give a nuanced townread on someone who would flip town, to be fair, so I’ll leave it at that.

5. Other thoughts?

I didn’t like the way Balki and Bunny were playing grab-ass in the thread early in the long N1. Bunny also dropped off a cliff and hasn’t done much to earn a positive impression in his return. I think there’s a nontrivial chance of teammates being there.

Chaqa, Flavius, and sweetandcool are in my never-kill pile.
bozo, brain, damo, Demon, Jamie, lfischl, rdr all feel good to me.
I guess that literally just leaves a team of Balki/KOTP/Bunny/worcej lol… I’m sure I don’t have the full solve for you, but I firmly believe in my never-kill pile, I firmly believe in Balki/KOTP.

[damo666]

Mafia please shoot Flav. I can't stand the style.

Thanks

[sweetandcool]

Well, I already thought we were dealing with a scum Bunny when I spotted the crumbs, so I'm going to count it as scum points.

I have no idea what you’re talking about. You’ve never once seen me crumb in any game. If you go and look for games where I have crumbed, it was literally hidden in metadata and unmistakably a crumb.

I know you didn’t find anything like that because I didn’t do it.

I now leave 0 crumbs as PR.

You literally just saw a game like that.

But since people are posting long thoughts, I might actually write up my thoughts on “normative” good/bad play and “objective” good/bad play in games of teams with incomplete information. I think I may be the only actual expert of any such game here (we all suck at this one, I suck at bridge too, but have literally put in the 10000 hours of play and study and had moderate success) and I was realizing the other night sweet was pissing me off so much because he was conflating the two and insisting he’s correct while playing objectively horribly by imposing his normative beliefs and objecting to a normative team play (he’s not wrong the normative play could be different)


But I have homework to do and sitting in my hammock.

Sweet is still unCCd, huh?

Well…I screwed that up with Bona once.

##unvote. No need to vote him off for being obnoxious when we can just shoot him.

AGREED. Shoot him. ALSO on the crumb conversation I think crumbs are >real<, and their useful to find >even< if their fake its more information, not the >end all be all< BUT cant deny it

Okay, but I really did find crumbs and am 80% sure they are legit.

Just not Bunny crumbs

[President Eden]

Pirate has provided a running commentary of the game with his few posts.

He has not attempted to solve at all, just vaguely sheeping.

We’ve seen new player Pirate sheep in a townie way, this is not it.

He is willfully lurking as scum.

Wholehearted agreement. Furthermore, I noted the way he joined the foodcoats wagon D1 was suspect. I also observe that Balki is 75+% to be mafia, and his defense of KOTP was a reach suggestive of mafia trying to cover for a teammate.

I hope you are willing to jump to King when the time comes.

I don’t think the Balki wagon is going to fly, and there is a 25% chance you are wrong about him.

There is, but it’s worth the risk.

[FlaviusAetius]

You bet your sweet bippy I'm unCCed!

I dare someone to CC me. Then we'll have verified scum up on the block, even if I lose the thunderdome somehow.

NO ONE should CC you

[damo666]

##Vote brain

FUN & interactive

You were voting me and now follow me. lol

[brainbomb]

##vote balki

[BunnyGo]

Bunny now that you are here can you answer my question about why you flipped from rdr to food right at the end

I preferred food. I had always planned on going back, but hated it as a runaway.

[lfischl]

##vote balki

[BunnyGo]

##vote jamie

Reason?

Fun

[BunnyGo]

Bunny now that you are here can you answer my question about why you flipped from rdr to food right at the end

Or, ya know, why he jumped off and on of food's wagon like a fuckin trampoline all of D1

Wanted more action. Wanted food to win the vote. Runaway wagons bad D1. Voting my best scunread good.

[brainbomb]

No killing Balki is even more fun than killing Jamie

[Jamiet99uk]

##Vote Balki

I was already townreading Eden and I believe his claim.