M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[Ezio]

I know mafia players are notoriously risk-averse, but I think there’s real upside to the maximalist pro-Monarch position that’s a little undervalued right now. It looks really stupid to kill Bunny here and lose if he’s town, but by far the highest upside play, if we trust Monarch enough, is to just kill Bunny and if he flips scum, we confirm we still have a miskill remaining.

I don’t know if I trust Monarch enough for that though.

Ultimately I don’t think I can reasonably argue that killing Monarch and ensuring we survive another day is bad. So if that’s what we’re doing then I’m in for it.

I really think you need to come clean with everything though Bunny. I know there’s upside to keeping your info secret til EON if you’re town, but your case isn’t persuasive enough to me to play to that upside,.

Bunny absolutely needs to reveal every scan they have ever made immediately. I do not think bunny has played this game like a cop with extra information. There's something to be said for staying secret, but also it's important to keep your clears alive, and to push your scumreads better.

[Ezio]

Looks like I crossposted with this. Voting anyone other than monarch would be so anti-town today. If she’s town, we just vote out Bunny and that would hard-clear food.

Not necessarily—if we think we believe Monarch then there’s good reason to just stake the game on that and go for Bunny. It’s obviously high risk, but the upside of saving a miskill is pretty enormous, IF we’re right.

Oh wait. I just realized something big.

@bunny: do you have a scan on Food? If you're an alignment cop, there's no way you haven't scanned him.

How is that big?

[aarodactyl]

Looks like I crossposted with this. Voting anyone other than monarch would be so anti-town today. If she’s town, we just vote out Bunny and that would hard-clear food.

Not necessarily—if we think we believe Monarch then there’s good reason to just stake the game on that and go for Bunny. It’s obviously high risk, but the upside of saving a miskill is pretty enormous, IF we’re right.

Oh wait. I just realized something big.

@bunny: do you have a scan on Food? If you're an alignment cop, there's no way you haven't scanned him.

I don't think this impacts our votes today, but I think it would definitively sort out their alignment and would help convince the PE's of the world to go with the risk-adverse option.

[BunnyGo]

##vote mad

Stop it

Fyp

[BunnyGo]

My power tells me alignment.

Monarch is scum.

Stop fucking around you dipshits.

And as Eden pointed out: since monarch claims ghug is scum (she’s lying but whatever) then you ONLY have a miskill left in the case she’s telling the truth.


In the case she’s lying (which she is) you have no miskills left.

So killing monarch guarantees the game continues.

But most importantly because she’s scum.

Also I do wanna defend my "fucking around" as you described. In a world where you learn role, not alignment, it makes perfect sense.
I saw you respond to Eden with a "good job" or whatever when he said you could see roles and inferred Monarch's alignment from there.

Totally agree.

I’ve been playing cards close to chest because I still want this day to get intel.

Also because aaro made one mistake in his logical analysis of my eon post and what I know.

[Ezio]

Man. A role scanner would have been so much more cool than an alignment scanner.
Imagine if bunny had PR results on members of the mafia. They'd be terrified of fake claiming VT. But if they claimed PR, they would have known they were gonna be scumread.

[Ezio]

Also can y'all turn off your "hidden mode" or whatever it's called. I wanna see who's online so I can talk to you.

[BunnyGo]

Man. A role scanner would have been so much more cool than an alignment scanner.
Imagine if bunny had PR results on members of the mafia. They'd be terrified of fake claiming VT. But if they claimed PR, they would have known they were gonna be scumread.

That’s what I was trying to hint at to get them to real claim…

Make our lives easier.

[President Eden]

Also can y’all turn off your “hidden mode” or whatever it’s called. I wanna see who’s online so I can talk to you.

no!

[aarodactyl]

Not necessarily—if we think we believe Monarch then there’s good reason to just stake the game on that and go for Bunny. It’s obviously high risk, but the upside of saving a miskill is pretty enormous, IF we’re right.

Oh wait. I just realized something big.

@bunny: do you have a scan on Food? If you're an alignment cop, there's no way you haven't scanned him.

How is that big?

If bunny says that they have an innocent scan on food then:

• if bunny is town, food is town
• if bunny is scum:
  • if Monarch is town, food is town because there has to be 2 town PR left (and one isn't bunny)
  • if Monarch is scum, there needs to be one town PR among the three PR claims, which would have to be food

if bunny says he has a guilty on food:

• if bunny is town, food is scum
• if bunny is scum:
  • If Monarch is town: food is town because there has to be 2 town PRs
  • if Monarch is scum: food is town because there has to be 1 town PR

Essentially, if bunny says food is town, then food is town. If bunny says food is scum, then food has to be the opposite alignment as bunny.

The guilty scan portion of my logic feels super counter-intuitive but I don't think I'm missing something.

[BunnyGo]

Oh wait. I just realized something big.

@bunny: do you have a scan on Food? If you're an alignment cop, there's no way you haven't scanned him.

How is that big?

If bunny says that they have an innocent scan on food then:

• if bunny is town, food is town
• if bunny is scum:
  • if Monarch is town, food is town because there has to be 2 town PR left (and one isn't bunny)
  • if Monarch is scum, there needs to be one town PR among the three PR claims, which would have to be food

if bunny says he has a guilty on food:

• if bunny is town, food is scum
• if bunny is scum:
  • If Monarch is town: food is town because there has to be 2 town PRs
  • if Monarch is scum: food is town because there has to be 1 town PR

Essentially, if bunny says food is town, then food is town. If bunny says food is scum, then food has to be the opposite alignment as bunny.

The guilty scan portion of my logic feels super counter-intuitive but I don't think I'm missing something.

Why do there have to be two town PR left?

[aarodactyl]

How is that big?

If bunny says that they have an innocent scan on food then:

• if bunny is town, food is town
• if bunny is scum:
  • if Monarch is town, food is town because there has to be 2 town PR left (and one isn't bunny)
  • if Monarch is scum, there needs to be one town PR among the three PR claims, which would have to be food

if bunny says he has a guilty on food:

• if bunny is town, food is scum
• if bunny is scum:
  • If Monarch is town: food is town because there has to be 2 town PRs
  • if Monarch is scum: food is town because there has to be 1 town PR

Essentially, if bunny says food is town, then food is town. If bunny says food is scum, then food has to be the opposite alignment as bunny.

The guilty scan portion of my logic feels super counter-intuitive but I don't think I'm missing something.

Why do there have to be two town PR left?

Eden made this point earlier in the phase: If Monarch is town -> ghug is a goon -> there are three goons -> tadpole didn't hit a town PR.

[BunnyGo]

If bunny says that they have an innocent scan on food then:

• if bunny is town, food is town
• if bunny is scum:
  • if Monarch is town, food is town because there has to be 2 town PR left (and one isn't bunny)
  • if Monarch is scum, there needs to be one town PR among the three PR claims, which would have to be food

if bunny says he has a guilty on food:

• if bunny is town, food is scum
• if bunny is scum:
  • If Monarch is town: food is town because there has to be 2 town PRs
  • if Monarch is scum: food is town because there has to be 1 town PR

Essentially, if bunny says food is town, then food is town. If bunny says food is scum, then food has to be the opposite alignment as bunny.

The guilty scan portion of my logic feels super counter-intuitive but I don't think I'm missing something.

Why do there have to be two town PR left?

Eden made this point earlier in the phase: If Monarch is town -> ghug is a goon -> there are three goons -> tadpole didn't hit a town PR.

Ah. That’s clever. Sadly ghug is VT (or possibly a PR if food is also scum and lied about ghug’s message)

[Ezio]

How is that big?

If bunny says that they have an innocent scan on food then:

• if bunny is town, food is town
• if bunny is scum:
  • if Monarch is town, food is town because there has to be 2 town PR left (and one isn't bunny)
  • if Monarch is scum, there needs to be one town PR among the three PR claims, which would have to be food

if bunny says he has a guilty on food:

• if bunny is town, food is scum
• if bunny is scum:
  • If Monarch is town: food is town because there has to be 2 town PRs
  • if Monarch is scum: food is town because there has to be 1 town PR

Essentially, if bunny says food is town, then food is town. If bunny says food is scum, then food has to be the opposite alignment as bunny.

The guilty scan portion of my logic feels super counter-intuitive but I don't think I'm missing something.

Why do there have to be two town PR left?

Aaro's analysis is accurate.

If Monarch is town, mafia tadpoled VT because that's necro claim. Monarch has claimed ghug was VT therefore 3 mafia VT's when they only have 2, therefore they didn't get PR.

If Monarch is scum, you're alignment cop and therefore you know Food's alignment because I agree with Aaro; of course you've scanned Food by this point, and then there's just the standard cop analysis.

[Bonatogether]

do you think ghug is pronounced gorg

[Ezio]

Bunny, who have you fucking scanned?

[worcej]

FFS lylo PR claims make this game so difficult sometimes…

[aarodactyl]

do you think ghug is pronounced gorg

I think it's pronounced Cagey Hug

[Bonatogether]

do you think ghug is pronounced gorg

I think it's pronounced Cagey Hug

bingo

[Bonatogether]

if bunny can't produce scan claims then i think we just yolo on town!macca, which i believe greater probability than town!bunny