M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[foodcoats]

This is the D1 EOD voting. I think it is instructive in some way but it is hard to say exactly how.

Essentially, ALL OF THE VOTES WITH 30 MINS TO GO WERE TOWN - except sweet. I know you guys don't KNOW my alignment, but I do, so I see this.

Because of this, the votes by Worcej and Bunny with about 30 to go really grabbed my attention. I did not post about this when I first saw it because I was not sure how to decide what to think of this. Now that I feel confident worcej is town because Fox scumread him and was not NKd, I think this looks really bad for BunnyGo.

It also looks REALLY good for lfischl/PE to votepark a scum into top wagon contention with 40 minutes to go.

So again, we can deduce from this that PE is likely town. We can deduce also that Bunny could possibly be scum for moving to protect Flum.

We can also ask, is there actually ZERO scum movement in the last 30 minutes? This is just too much WIFOM at the moment so I can't give sweet scum points for this... if I rebuild the wagons and colour them I might have more ideas.

[foodcoats]

Okay, so I hope everyone is following me that, for D1 AND FOR D2 VCA, PE is VERY UNLIKELY TO BE SCUM.

Sweet and Just have been pushing PE today: sweet with a tinfoil claim he has solved the game, and Just for NO REASON AT ALL.

Sweet and Just both scumread Vecna yesterday FOR NO REASON AT ALL.

[foodcoats]

I think it is EXCEPTIONALLY REASONABLE to make the below assumption - yellows are VERY LIKELY TOWN.

Pre duel updated VCA

DiplomacyandWarfare (6) DemonRHK*, worcej, Foxcastle, Jamiet99uk, Yoyoyozo, lfischl
Jamiet99uk (2) Fluminator, Ezio
ghug (3) FlaviusAetius, Dousing, JustAGuyNamedWill
lfischl (3) Col7by, Vecna, aarodactyl
damo666 (1) TheMadMonarch
FlaviusAetius (1) bonatogether
Dousing (2) Balki Bartokomous, ghug
Ezio (1) foodcoats
sweetandcool (1) BunnyGo
Balki (3) Squigs44, DiplomacyandWarfare, sweetandcool

[TheMadMonarch]

...

Something else to consider is that MM, if town, was a very, very, very good tadpole target.

Im interested to know why you think this?

[foodcoats]

Day 3. Give that I know I am town, there is very likely scum among Colby, Bona, Bunny, Ezio, sweet, and Just.

FlaviusAetius (7) Col7by Bonatogether BunnyGo DemonRHK worcej President Eden foodcoats
foodcoats (6) Ezio Squigs44 sweetandcool JustAGuyNamedWill Yoyoyozo Dousing
Fluminator (3) Foxcastle aarodactyl FlaviusAetius
JustAGuyNamedWill (2) Vecna Jamiet99uk
ghug (1) TheMadMonarch
Foxcastle (1) Fluminator

[foodcoats]

...

Something else to consider is that MM, if town, was a very, very, very good tadpole target.

Im interested to know why you think this?

Because you do not play the game, MM. Sorry, I am not trying to be mean or anything. But you are just a lurker. It makes you hard to read and this would be a benefit to scum.

[foodcoats]

Jeez I just realized that scum activated the BM when Balki was one of the top wagons. This meant they felt they could avoid a Balki kill. This increases sweet's chances of being scum. It also does not look good for Bona or Bunny; we know MM is always absent at EOD but Bona or Bunny could claim "consolidation" to move off their vanities.

I think it is EXCEPTIONALLY REASONABLE to make the below assumption - yellows are VERY LIKELY TOWN.

Pre duel updated VCA

DiplomacyandWarfare (6) DemonRHK*, worcej, Foxcastle, Jamiet99uk, Yoyoyozo, lfischl
Jamiet99uk (2) Fluminator, Ezio
ghug (3) FlaviusAetius, Dousing, JustAGuyNamedWill
lfischl (3) Col7by, Vecna, aarodactyl
damo666 (1) TheMadMonarch
FlaviusAetius (1) bonatogether
Dousing (2) Balki Bartokomous, ghug
Ezio (1) foodcoats
sweetandcool (1) BunnyGo
Balki (3) Squigs44, DiplomacyandWarfare, sweetandcool

[Col7by]

I think there is no good reason to eliminate Ezio today. Ezio is behaving like town. He was lurky at the beginning but has progressively picked up steam.

What do you think of Ezio?

I don’t like the sweet votes and red flag for me he’s on it. Otherwise didn’t love the play at the beginning of the game but has gotten more town as we’ve gone on

Okay, how do you feel about JustAGuyNamedWill?

Scum lean but I’m not confident it’s worth the vote here

[TheMadMonarch]

...

Something else to consider is that MM, if town, was a very, very, very good tadpole target.

Im interested to know why you think this?

Because you do not play the game, MM. Sorry, I am not trying to be mean or anything. But you are just a lurker. It makes you hard to read and this would be a benefit to scum.

I don't think you're being mean. If I couldn't take comments like this, I wouldn't come back.

I don't see how that's helpful though? Why wouldn't they want someone who can. actually help.

I always get killed for scumminess, or policy killed. There is no way any scumteam expects me to make it to the end.

[foodcoats]

We still may not win, but I am pretty confident at this point that I have 3 of them.

The feels when you start to solve it.

[foodcoats]

Im interested to know why you think this?

Because you do not play the game, MM. Sorry, I am not trying to be mean or anything. But you are just a lurker. It makes you hard to read and this would be a benefit to scum.

I don't think you're being mean. If I couldn't take comments like this, I wouldn't come back.

I don't see how that's helpful though? Why wouldn't they want someone who can. actually help.

I always get killed for scumminess, or policy killed. There is no way any scumteam expects me to make it to the end.

Yeah, that's true. It is definitely WIFOM on my part. It does not really add or subtract to a case against you right now.

Can you review what I have been putting up with regards to sweet and Just? I really really really think you should land on one of those two today if you are town.

[Col7by]

Day 3. Give that I know I am town, there is very likely scum among Colby, Bona, Bunny, Ezio, sweet, and Just.

FlaviusAetius (7) Col7by Bonatogether BunnyGo DemonRHK worcej President Eden foodcoats
foodcoats (6) Ezio Squigs44 sweetandcool JustAGuyNamedWill Yoyoyozo Dousing
Fluminator (3) Foxcastle aarodactyl FlaviusAetius
JustAGuyNamedWill (2) Vecna Jamiet99uk
ghug (1) TheMadMonarch
Foxcastle (1) Fluminator

I started the flav vote incorrectly but I think this vote needs to be analyzed. Nina was hard bushing him and then has largely not given any options since. I’m interested in bona or bunny this vote which dip actually said before getting elimmed D2. Also my thoughts on why they kept me alive is my only read this game has been bunny so if I died early on it would look bad for bunny and since I haven’t been able to whip up votes they don’t see me as a threat. Or since I haven’t found anyone else they think I’ll tunnel bunny the rest of the game and lose it for us

[foodcoats]

The other thing the below tells us is we need to analyze Aaro carefully later on. What was his progression onto flum? How did he react to the Flav and Food wagons?

Day 3. Give that I know I am town, there is very likely scum among Colby, Bona, Bunny, Ezio, sweet, and Just.

FlaviusAetius (7) Col7by Bonatogether BunnyGo DemonRHK worcej President Eden foodcoats
foodcoats (6) Ezio Squigs44 sweetandcool JustAGuyNamedWill Yoyoyozo Dousing
Fluminator (3) Foxcastle aarodactyl FlaviusAetius
JustAGuyNamedWill (2) Vecna Jamiet99uk
ghug (1) TheMadMonarch
Foxcastle (1) Fluminator

[TheMadMonarch]

Because you do not play the game, MM. Sorry, I am not trying to be mean or anything. But you are just a lurker. It makes you hard to read and this would be a benefit to scum.

I don't think you're being mean. If I couldn't take comments like this, I wouldn't come back.

I don't see how that's helpful though? Why wouldn't they want someone who can. actually help.

I always get killed for scumminess, or policy killed. There is no way any scumteam expects me to make it to the end.

Yeah, that's true. It is definitely WIFOM on my part. It does not really add or subtract to a case against you right now.

Can you review what I have been putting up with regards to sweet and Just? I really really really think you should land on one of those two today if you are town.

I will defo end up on one of those. The fact I'm parking is unfortunate enough, I will park somewhere people will go.

[TheMadMonarch]

If I wanted to be up at EOD, I would have gone to bed 2 hours ago.

If MILO/KILO is 2 (real life) days from now, I will endevour to be awake for that one.

That's Sunday night, which I do have work most of the day, then I have to pick up my mum from the airport. But I will try.

Someone (likely Bunny, I trust him the most) will have to give me a rundown tho as I will not have time to catch up.

[foodcoats]

This is spew. Sweet is spewing.

What do you think of my case regarding the duel?

Unfortunately, I am not nearly able to participate the way I want.

But I spent a ton of time solving. But it also takes a ton of time writing a good case, which I wish I could have written better.

I can definitely see a world where lfischl/Eden is scum, but it is an extra-complicated world, and I don't think it is a good idea to make a hero call right now.

Everything for the scumteam unravels if we flip Eden. It helps us correctly Town several players, and it guides us towards the rest of scum.

But if we can't have Eden I personally am confident about Bunny now. He is playing his scum game last night and today. Bunny is a great player and his response today has been incredibly apathetic and disinterested.

I think at least one of aaro and Colby are Mafia, though probably even both. But we'd have a better idea if we flip Eden.

[foodcoats]

Sweet has a WHOLE NEW SCUM TEAM TODAY.

Oh my goooood how did we let him get away yesterday. That was bad of us.

This is spew. Sweet is spewing.

I can definitely see a world where lfischl/Eden is scum, but it is an extra-complicated world, and I don't think it is a good idea to make a hero call right now.

Everything for the scumteam unravels if we flip Eden. It helps us correctly Town several players, and it guides us towards the rest of scum.

But if we can't have Eden I personally am confident about Bunny now. He is playing his scum game last night and today. Bunny is a great player and his response today has been incredibly apathetic and disinterested.

I think at least one of aaro and Colby are Mafia, though probably even both. But we'd have a better idea if we flip Eden.

[foodcoats]

Alright I need to go cool my boots.

I think everyone needs to get on sweet or Just.

PE or worcej is madness as I have previously explained. DO NOT VOTE for PE or worcej.

[Col7by]

If I wanted to be up at EOD, I would have gone to bed 2 hours ago.

If MILO/KILO is 2 (real life) days from now, I will endevour to be awake for that one.

That's Sunday night, which I do have work most of the day, then I have to pick up my mum from the airport. But I will try.

Someone (likely Bunny, I trust him the most) will have to give me a rundown tho as I will not have time to catch up.

Bunny hard pushed you and sweet early today

[TheMadMonarch]

If I wanted to be up at EOD, I would have gone to bed 2 hours ago.

If MILO/KILO is 2 (real life) days from now, I will endevour to be awake for that one.

That's Sunday night, which I do have work most of the day, then I have to pick up my mum from the airport. But I will try.

Someone (likely Bunny, I trust him the most) will have to give me a rundown tho as I will not have time to catch up.

Bunny hard pushed you and sweet early today

Yeah, but I agree with Bunny's push on me. So I trust him.