M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[foodcoats]

probbaly mafia atp

In that case, how statistically likely do you think it is the scum would use the BM power on D2, and Eden/lfischl is scum? Please look at the wagons that day.

could it not set up a fakeclaim? they just need one person to go deep, and with 6 scum members, they have a deep bench. also, the tadpole is after this, so he could be town and then tadpoled.

I think it is POSSIBLE but it LESS LIKELY that Eden Fish is scum. Eden is a bad elimination today because the likelihood that the scum!BM activated with Eden a viable wagon is low.

[foodcoats]

I disagree and will do it in future games, for sure.

That said, I have expressed contrition because my execution of the fake claim was incredibly poor and it probably wasn't very good in the first place.

i feel like beancomb makes it work because everyone knows there's a percent chance he's just bullshitting any claim, so the real ones slip through more easily, which makes it much more obviously wifom, but this wasn't present in your claims so it didn't work like it does with beancomb.

Again, I'm not pretending I did a good job with it this game.

Though worcej's reaction to my GUILTY scan on Food was so incredibly Town.

So at least we got that.

What if you and I are both town and worcej reacted as he did because he is scum and knew what you were doing was stupid and so gained townie points for it?

This is the problem with getting tinfoily, e.g. with your Eden solve. Yes, those things are POSSIBLE. But again, I do not want to go for a “hero call.”

FWIW all the work you (sweet) have put in makes me prefer to vote for Will. But similarly I could tinfoil about your sudden manic interest in the game and Will’s total disappearance. See, anything COULD be scummy… which is why I want to vote out “The anti-town.”

[foodcoats]

Pre duel updated VCA

DiplomacyandWarfare (6) DemonRHK*, worcej, Foxcastle, Jamiet99uk, Yoyoyozo, lfischl
Jamiet99uk (2) Fluminator, Ezio
ghug (3) FlaviusAetius, Dousing, JustAGuyNamedWill
lfischl (3) Col7by, Vecna, aarodactyl
damo666 (1) TheMadMonarch
FlaviusAetius (1) bonatogether
Dousing (2) Balki Bartokomous, ghug
Ezio (1) foodcoats
sweetandcool (1) BunnyGo
Balki (3) Squigs44, DiplomacyandWarfare, sweetandcool

It’s interesting that no one has commented on this. It is interesting Ezio told me VCA is useful but has not done any VCA. But I won’t tinfoil any further that way.

I think this D2 makes Just look suspicious. Just left for the day parked on ghug and I already find Just massively anti town. Sweet may look just a bit better, although sweet surely learned from Will that deep bussing is effective.

##VOTE Just

[foodcoats]

Another useful heuristic that makes Will a good elimination is this.

Suppose we elim a townie today and we do not lose. Who is it better to elim?

This is where I feel good moving from sweet to Just. Just has given me 0 reasons to townread him, quite literally, and has contributed 0 effort for town. So if we wrong elim him, we still have a net positive better town.

If we wrong elim, say, Eden, we still have someone like Just around!

It is not sexy but we need to play money ball.

[foodcoats]

Scum pool:

JustWill, Sweetandcool, Dousing, MadMonarch, and one of the good players, who has pulled the wool over my eyes. Eden? Yoyo?

Strongly townread Vecna, Foodcoats, and moderately townread Col7by, Ezio.

Why did Jamie die before Fox?

[foodcoats]

My reads, from scum to town. Short version: Definitely kill Worcej now. Then Ezio and Bona in either order. Then Sweet to see about the tadpole.


Worcej - Scum. He's playing the game that scum wish they could pull off every time. His vote on D3 to put Food in front of Flum was probably to help encourage D4 to be about relitigating Food rather than people focusing on Flum.

Ezio - Might be scum. Like Worcej, playing a good, towny game that's just not interesting. Started the push on Food when Flum had peaked, so if Food was intended to be a second buffer in front of Flum, that could be a scum-led wagon.

Bona - Might be scum. Possible he bussed balki, backed off, then landed on him, and then saved Flum.

Mad Monarch - The overuse of emojis makes it hard to read their iso on the bot. Not a lot to go on here, but if they're in the finale, that's probably not good for town either way.

Yoyo - Unsure.

Bunny - Probably not scum, given how Flum went after him.

Colby - Maybe town.

Sweet - Town, I guess, but possibly tadpoled?

Dousing - Probably town.

Will - Probably town, I guess.

Eden - I was townreading him for (lfischl) being a wagon on D2 when the Duel was initiated. But scum would know that we would work the battle master out, so I think there's still some WIFOM there. So it's possible that the idea was to intiialize the battlemaster with lfischl in 2nd place and drive another town wagon up, but Balki got brought up by the duel instead. Unclear why Demon was in his strong town reads EON3 but he manages to make Demon his vote D4 without any explanation. Anyway, I think he's wrong about a bunch of stuff, but that's different than thinking he's scummy. Maybe wait until endgame to kill him if he hasn't proven himself by then.

Jamie - Jamie's also been getting a pass because of the Battle Master situation. Certainly, Eden and Jamie are not both scum.

Vecna - Probably town.

Food - Don't kill. I'm now thinking Food was pushed up to prevent all the scum from being on Flav when they saved Flum. So that makes it harder.

Aaro - Town, do not kill. I doubt he bussed both Flum and Balki when he did.

There is a key delta between Fox and Jamie: The reads of sweet and Just. Jamie scummed them, Fox towned them.

[foodcoats]

Jamie seemed like an easy wagon, and Fox was effectively clear.

Just or sweet MUST go today.

[foodcoats]

Jamie’s votes D4 were for Demon, Just, and sweet.

Fox’s D4 votes were for Flum, worcej, and food.

Scum were okay leaving a townclear.
Scum were okay leaving a townclear.
Scum were okay leaving a townclear.

Why did they kill Jamie instead of a townclear?

[Col7by]

Another useful heuristic that makes Will a good elimination is this.

Suppose we elim a townie today and we do not lose. Who is it better to elim?

This is where I feel good moving from sweet to Just. Just has given me 0 reasons to townread him, quite literally, and has contributed 0 effort for town. So if we wrong elim him, we still have a net positive better town.

If we wrong elim, say, Eden, we still have someone like Just around!

It is not sexy but we need to play money ball.

This is the same logic as bunny and someone else had for monarch too

[Col7by]

I think that there are mostly likely two scum that have voted for sweet today thinking it’s the easy vote for people to sheep (did I do that right?). I almost prefer going 50/50 on someone on that train because they’re more influential than people who are just hanging around waiting

[dargorygel]

##GM NOTE AND VOTE

sweetandcool (2) worcej, Ezio
JustAGuyNamedWill (2) aarodactyl, foodcoats
President Eden (1) JustAGuyNamedWill
BunnyGo (1) sweetandcool
worcej (1) President Eden

Unvote: BunnyGo

Non Voters… tripping along the edge of The Big Chasm of Death:
Bonatogether, Col7by, TheMadMonarch

Day Ends in 8 ¾ hours

[foodcoats]

Another useful heuristic that makes Will a good elimination is this.

Suppose we elim a townie today and we do not lose. Who is it better to elim?

This is where I feel good moving from sweet to Just. Just has given me 0 reasons to townread him, quite literally, and has contributed 0 effort for town. So if we wrong elim him, we still have a net positive better town.

If we wrong elim, say, Eden, we still have someone like Just around!

It is not sexy but we need to play money ball.

This is the same logic as bunny and someone else had for monarch too

This is me deciding between multiple anti-town. I don’t know if it has been shown by anyone that Bunny is anti-town.

[foodcoats]

Jamie’s votes D4 were for Demon, Just, and sweet.

Fox’s D4 votes were for Flum, worcej, and food.

Scum were okay leaving a townclear.
Scum were okay leaving a townclear.
Scum were okay leaving a townclear.

Why did they kill Jamie instead of a townclear?

I think this is a really important part of the solve. To me, it suggests Fox was dead wrong in his reads to the point that scum were willing to leave him alive to lead a miskill.

Fox only posted that big reads list at EON but he did post earlier in the night that he thought worcej was deepscum. To me this reduces the likelihood that worcej is scum, because Fox was the natural kill and we would not necessarily have deduced if he had good or bad reads if he was killed N4. Now that we know he had unthreatening reads, worcej looks very strongly town.

[Col7by]

Jamie’s votes D4 were for Demon, Just, and sweet.

Fox’s D4 votes were for Flum, worcej, and food.

Scum were okay leaving a townclear.
Scum were okay leaving a townclear.
Scum were okay leaving a townclear.

Why did they kill Jamie instead of a townclear?

I think this is a really important part of the solve. To me, it suggests Fox was dead wrong in his reads to the point that scum were willing to leave him alive to lead a miskill.

Fox only posted that big reads list at EON but he did post earlier in the night that he thought worcej was deepscum. To me this reduces the likelihood that worcej is scum, because Fox was the natural kill and we would not necessarily have deduced if he had good or bad reads if he was killed N4. Now that we know he had unthreatening reads, worcej looks very strongly town.

How do you feel about ezio

[foodcoats]

Jamie’s votes D4 were for Demon, Just, and sweet.

Fox’s D4 votes were for Flum, worcej, and food.

Scum were okay leaving a townclear.
Scum were okay leaving a townclear.
Scum were okay leaving a townclear.

Why did they kill Jamie instead of a townclear?

I think this is a really important part of the solve. To me, it suggests Fox was dead wrong in his reads to the point that scum were willing to leave him alive to lead a miskill.

Fox only posted that big reads list at EON but he did post earlier in the night that he thought worcej was deepscum. To me this reduces the likelihood that worcej is scum, because Fox was the natural kill and we would not necessarily have deduced if he had good or bad reads if he was killed N4. Now that we know he had unthreatening reads, worcej looks very strongly town.

How do you feel about ezio

I think there is no good reason to eliminate Ezio today. Ezio is behaving like town. He was lurky at the beginning but has progressively picked up steam.

What do you think of Ezio?

[foodcoats]

##VOTE sweetandcool

I keep changing my mind between sweet and Just, but I trust worcej and Ezio. I think we can all stay on sweet and make that happen today.

There are several very valid points against sweetandcool.

-sweet truly seemed upset when Fox shot Flum.
-sweet was not reading the game until very recently. For example yesterday he would only vote for Yoyo or Vecna and did not have any good reason why.
-sweet fakeclaimed on the block to save himself.

There is also some stuff going on with voting that is triggering me. I am definitely staying within the sweet-Just-MM spectrum today, though. It would be madness otherwise.

Something else to consider is that MM, if town, was a very, very, very good tadpole target.

[foodcoats]

Jamie’s votes D4 were for Demon, Just, and sweet.

Fox’s D4 votes were for Flum, worcej, and food.

Scum were okay leaving a townclear.
Scum were okay leaving a townclear.
Scum were okay leaving a townclear.

Why did they kill Jamie instead of a townclear?

Something else to consider about N4 is that Vecna was not fearkilled; Jamie was. From a meta-perspective, we can expect town!Vecna to get NKd pretty often. Vecna also seemed to scumread sweetandcool, but he tried to win sweet over and argue that Yoyo was scum going after town!sweet.

This could make sweet slightly less likely to be scum while making Just and MadMonarch more afraid of Jamie.

[Col7by]

I think this is a really important part of the solve. To me, it suggests Fox was dead wrong in his reads to the point that scum were willing to leave him alive to lead a miskill.

Fox only posted that big reads list at EON but he did post earlier in the night that he thought worcej was deepscum. To me this reduces the likelihood that worcej is scum, because Fox was the natural kill and we would not necessarily have deduced if he had good or bad reads if he was killed N4. Now that we know he had unthreatening reads, worcej looks very strongly town.

How do you feel about ezio

I think there is no good reason to eliminate Ezio today. Ezio is behaving like town. He was lurky at the beginning but has progressively picked up steam.

What do you think of Ezio?

I don’t like the sweet votes and red flag for me he’s on it. Otherwise didn’t love the play at the beginning of the game but has gotten more town as we’ve gone on

[foodcoats]

How do you feel about ezio

I think there is no good reason to eliminate Ezio today. Ezio is behaving like town. He was lurky at the beginning but has progressively picked up steam.

What do you think of Ezio?

I don’t like the sweet votes and red flag for me he’s on it. Otherwise didn’t love the play at the beginning of the game but has gotten more town as we’ve gone on

Okay, how do you feel about JustAGuyNamedWill?

[foodcoats]

Jamie’s votes D4 were for Demon, Just, and sweet.

Fox’s D4 votes were for Flum, worcej, and food.

Scum were okay leaving a townclear.
Scum were okay leaving a townclear.
Scum were okay leaving a townclear.

Why did they kill Jamie instead of a townclear?

Something else to consider about N4 is that Vecna was not fearkilled; Jamie was. From a meta-perspective, we can expect town!Vecna to get NKd pretty often. Vecna also seemed to scumread sweetandcool, but he tried to win sweet over and argue that Yoyo was scum going after town!sweet.

This could make sweet slightly less likely to be scum while making Just and MadMonarch more afraid of Jamie.

Okay, so I'm starting to turn myself around here. Both Vecna and Jamie suspected both sweet and Just. Scum decided to kill Jamie. However, Vecna also suspected yoyo... however however, Jamie also suspected Dousing.

The greater share of the knowledge probably comes from Fox being wrong. As I've stated before worcej is very likely town given Fox's opinions and him being left alive.

The below we can assume is "unthreatening" compared to Jamie:

Sorry, I'm a little confused because I have a bunch of other things distracting me. But I think EOD3 is very revealing. Scum wanted to save Flum, and they had already succeeded at 3 minutes out, before the Food wagon starts to gain traction. Sweet and Dousing are the only Flav voters that abandon the wagon. As soon as sweet bails, Worcej jumps from me to Flav to backfill.

I think D3 points to Bona, Bunny, Colby, and Worcej.

There is no overlap between Jamie and Fox's reads so we can be relatively certain that Jamie was closer to the truth than Fox.

It turns out all I can really conclude from the not-kill of Fox is that Worcej is quite likely to be town.