M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[Ezio]

##vote worcej

Let’s do something fun instead

Worcej is obviously not scum.

When I faked a guilty on Food his reaction was genuine confusion and outing a PR. You can’t fake that sequence as scum.

wait, you fakeclaimed twice this game?

Yea he fakeclaimed cop with a guilty and fakeclaimed the immune to tadpole role.

IDK I think he's scum here. You being convinced he isn't means I'm down to try something else.

I'm also surprised Bunny hopped off the wagon so easily.

[President Eden]

##vote themadmonarch

[President Eden]

actually i’m low key worried about that vote freezer thing if i vote will
##unvote

[BunnyGo]

He’s obviously not.

God damnit.

I build my reads based on people thinking like I do. It comes from a town way of thinking and makes sense to me. When someone disagrees so much it's so fucking hard to town them still.

SnC's fakeclaims were explicitly to save themselves. That's scummy. Admitting it is less scummy.

I'm not sure why they would specifically pick you to push.

As to why scum is doing this rather than sitting idly? I think we're actually onto something with Will and they're feeling the heat, finally.

I'm really sorry about the fake claim.

It was bad because I became busy and did not execute well (and possibly simply shouldn't have).

My reasoning when planning it was lazy. I figured that if I came under pressure I would fake claim and Town would surely manage to hit Mafia, like even random chance seemed to dictate it.

Normally I absolutely am not a proponent of VT fake claiming just to save themselves. I am sorry I was so stupid and lazy.

Have you NOT been solving by counting PRs?!

[sweetandcool]

Worcej is obviously not scum.

When I faked a guilty on Food his reaction was genuine confusion and outing a PR. You can’t fake that sequence as scum.

wait, you fakeclaimed twice this game?

Yea he fakeclaimed cop with a guilty and fakeclaimed the immune to tadpole role.

IDK I think he's scum here. You being convinced he isn't means I'm down to try something else.

I'm also surprised Bunny hopped off the wagon so easily.

It's because scumteam is talking on Daychat and adjusting their tactics. They were not expecting someiti actually solve the game.

So Eden and Bunny are backing off in order to try to steal my conviction.

See, they are being very reasonable all of the sudden.

[sweetandcool]

God damnit.

I build my reads based on people thinking like I do. It comes from a town way of thinking and makes sense to me. When someone disagrees so much it's so fucking hard to town them still.

SnC's fakeclaims were explicitly to save themselves. That's scummy. Admitting it is less scummy.

I'm not sure why they would specifically pick you to push.

As to why scum is doing this rather than sitting idly? I think we're actually onto something with Will and they're feeling the heat, finally.

I'm really sorry about the fake claim.

It was bad because I became busy and did not execute well (and possibly simply shouldn't have).

My reasoning when planning it was lazy. I figured that if I came under pressure I would fake claim and Town would surely manage to hit Mafia, like even random chance seemed to dictate it.

Normally I absolutely am not a proponent of VT fake claiming just to save themselves. I am sorry I was so stupid and lazy.

Have you NOT been solving by counting PRs?!

Three town PRs. Plus Food.

So one missing PR.

Two probable Mafia PRs, so one missing Mafia PR.

But what am I supposed to solve with that?

[sweetandcool]

I'm really sorry about the fake claim.

It was bad because I became busy and did not execute well (and possibly simply shouldn't have).

My reasoning when planning it was lazy. I figured that if I came under pressure I would fake claim and Town would surely manage to hit Mafia, like even random chance seemed to dictate it.

Normally I absolutely am not a proponent of VT fake claiming just to save themselves. I am sorry I was so stupid and lazy.

Have you NOT been solving by counting PRs?!

Three town PRs. Plus Food.

So one missing PR.

Two probable Mafia PRs, so one missing Mafia PR.

But what am I supposed to solve with that?

Oh and actually probably the missing Town PR is a tadpole.

[President Eden]

wait, you fakeclaimed twice this game?

Yea he fakeclaimed cop with a guilty and fakeclaimed the immune to tadpole role.

IDK I think he’s scum here. You being convinced he isn’t means I’m down to try something else.

I’m also surprised Bunny hopped off the wagon so easily.

It’s because scumteam is talking on Daychat and adjusting their tactics. They were not expecting someiti actually solve the game.

So Eden and Bunny are backing off in order to try to steal my conviction.

See, they are being very reasonable all of the sudden.

I realized you would be profoundly embarrassed to argue this poorly knowing the answers.

Unfortunately, this means we’re functionally in LYLO already.

[sweetandcool]

Yea he fakeclaimed cop with a guilty and fakeclaimed the immune to tadpole role.

IDK I think he’s scum here. You being convinced he isn’t means I’m down to try something else.

I’m also surprised Bunny hopped off the wagon so easily.

It’s because scumteam is talking on Daychat and adjusting their tactics. They were not expecting someiti actually solve the game.

So Eden and Bunny are backing off in order to try to steal my conviction.

See, they are being very reasonable all of the sudden.

I realized you would be profoundly embarrassed to argue this poorly knowing the answers.

Unfortunately, this means we’re functionally in LYLO already.

Why do you say we are in LYLO? You don't think we will get Mafia?

[President Eden]

It’s because scumteam is talking on Daychat and adjusting their tactics. They were not expecting someiti actually solve the game.

So Eden and Bunny are backing off in order to try to steal my conviction.

See, they are being very reasonable all of the sudden.

I realized you would be profoundly embarrassed to argue this poorly knowing the answers.

Unfortunately, this means we’re functionally in LYLO already.

Why do you say we are in LYLO? You don’t think we will get Mafia?

If the two of us are in LYLO I don’t trust you not to throw the game. And neither of us are getting nightkilled now. So functionally we’re already at LYLO as far as I’m concerned.

[sweetandcool]

I realized you would be profoundly embarrassed to argue this poorly knowing the answers.

Unfortunately, this means we’re functionally in LYLO already.

Why do you say we are in LYLO? You don’t think we will get Mafia?

If the two of us are in LYLO I don’t trust you not to throw the game. And neither of us are getting nightkilled now. So functionally we’re already at LYLO as far as I’m concerned.

Oh so you agree that today a MK will lose the game?

Because I severely doubt both of us get to the endgame. The game would end before that ever happens.

But in the hypothetical case we make it to endgame together, then I my reads today would be proven wrong in which case I would not be "tunneled" on you.

[sweetandcool]

Ways that Mafia can screw us today or tomorrow and why we should be treating this phase as our last chance to catch scum:

1. Wild Magic: All votes get frozen except unvote and votes not made yet.

2. Steel Will: Able to survive one attack.

3. Bear Heart: Gain a second secret vote for the day.

4. Unarmoured Defense: Able to survive one attack.

5. Intimidating Presence: Able to declare yourself ineligible to receive votes for a day.

6. Circle of the Spores: TWICE per game you may force the result at the end of the day to be nullified and nobody dies. This power would absolutely ruin Town if we MK today.

7. Bardic Inspirational I doubt is in play, but could give Mafia an extra shot.

[sweetandcool]

And I suspect that Mafia's tadpole is a PR, so we are in extra danger.

[aarodactyl]

These reads are accurate, and doubters need to adopt them or we will lose.

Worcej is TOWN. If worcej was Mafia, would he react to my very helpful reaction test where I tell everyone how GUILTY Food is by rambling about Food being a PR? NOT A CHANCE.

Bona is TOWN. Suppose Bona and President Eden were Mafia. Would it make any sense for them to randomly start bussing each other N5? NO!

Also, Bona is projecting serious Town vibes, I can read him well and I'm telling you he is Town.

Will is TOWN. I know there are reasons to scumread him, and I know his meme was ridiculously fast and consequently looks like a scumslip. But his meme was actually a gift to us because it shows us he is TOWN in two different ways.

1. Scum has DAYCHAT. They would restrain Will from making idiotic blunders like this. And Will would be posting there before here. Like, he would post there, then post here in like 5 minutes. The only way that is possible is if he posted it in scum chat and then copy pasted, but his teammates would be like "noooooooo".

2. President Eden is having a great time whipping everyone into a frenzy over the meme. Opportunistic scum? Yes!

MadMonarch is TOWN. Mafia has ZERO MOTIVATION to defend Will here and MM has found a defense of Will's meme that is totally Townie.

President Eden is MAFIA.

Case:

Starting the case off stupid, but please read Eden's N5 as if he was scum. He has allowed his mask to slip because he can't resist "gloating" and he is actively pushing against several Town players.
Eden has been given a free pass due to BM being Mafia (which I still assume is the case).

This is what happened:

1. Mafia knows that Dip is going down.
2. Mafia wants to clear with the BM lfischl (Eden).
3. Balki taunts Squigs to see if he can peel off some lfisch Town voters.
4. Squigs and sweetandcool move from lfischl to Balki.
5. BM is activated right before the Duel is announced.
6. If the duel hadn't been announced, the plan was probably to have Mafia bussers of lfischl to jump to ghug, but of course any wagon of convenience would have worked out.
7. The lfischl wagon collapses, and probably ghug would have been 2nd place wagon (but of course the duel ruined this plan).

This plan for Mafia makes so much sense because every voter of lfischl was voting them for lurking. So Mafia probably had confidence they could shift votes from lfischl, especially since they were on him anyways.

Consequently, Aaro and Colby look incredibly likely to be the Mafia bussers that were on lfischl, before the duel was announced.

Even if you don't agree with this conclusion, at the very least it is incredibly realistic that Eden is scum, please don't townclear him like I've been doing the entire game because of lfischl being a top wagon when BM was presumably activated.

Please look at Eden closely. His votes, his ISO, his behavior N5, and you will see that he is confident Mafia.

TOWN

sweetandcool
Bona
worcej
Will
Food
Mad Monarch

Probably Town

Fox

POE

Aaro
Ezio
Bunny
Colby

MAFIA

Eden

Probably Mafia

Aaro
Colby

That actually just leaves Bunny and Ezio. And there is a small chance I am wrong about MM, but I doubt it. Between those two, Ezio has done a great job of seeming townie the whole game, and I predict he will actually be the NK, possibly solving the game for us if we resist the urge to MK today.

I feel like sweet gets town points for this even if I think it’s tinfoil hat and fixating on what seems like two moments in the game. I do agree it’s technically possible but I don’t see it as very likely.

[BunnyGo]

I'm really sorry about the fake claim.

It was bad because I became busy and did not execute well (and possibly simply shouldn't have).

My reasoning when planning it was lazy. I figured that if I came under pressure I would fake claim and Town would surely manage to hit Mafia, like even random chance seemed to dictate it.

Normally I absolutely am not a proponent of VT fake claiming just to save themselves. I am sorry I was so stupid and lazy.

Have you NOT been solving by counting PRs?!

Three town PRs. Plus Food.

So one missing PR.

Two probable Mafia PRs, so one missing Mafia PR.

But what am I supposed to solve with that?

Town!Sweet doesn't suck this hard at math and solving.

C'mon man, you're not this stupid. Is it babybrain (TM)?

[Ezio]

Have you NOT been solving by counting PRs?!

Three town PRs. Plus Food.

So one missing PR.

Two probable Mafia PRs, so one missing Mafia PR.

But what am I supposed to solve with that?

Town!Sweet doesn't suck this hard at math and solving.

C'mon man, you're not this stupid. Is it babybrain (TM)?

Why aren't you voting him?

[BunnyGo]

Why do you say we are in LYLO? You don’t think we will get Mafia?

If the two of us are in LYLO I don’t trust you not to throw the game. And neither of us are getting nightkilled now. So functionally we’re already at LYLO as far as I’m concerned.

Oh so you agree that today a MK will lose the game?

Because I severely doubt both of us get to the endgame. The game would end before that ever happens.

But in the hypothetical case we make it to endgame together, then I my reads today would be proven wrong in which case I would not be "tunneled" on you.

You think we're in Miskill and lose because of hidden scum powers they've been saving?

[BunnyGo]

Three town PRs. Plus Food.

So one missing PR.

Two probable Mafia PRs, so one missing Mafia PR.

But what am I supposed to solve with that?

Town!Sweet doesn't suck this hard at math and solving.

C'mon man, you're not this stupid. Is it babybrain (TM)?

Why aren't you voting him?

I'd love to, but people keep disappearing and I think TheMad is a safer vote for town.

[worcej]

I don’t really care to fight sweet’s insufferable bullshit.

Anyone fairly reading my posts N5 can conclude that I was skeptical of Will’s lame posting around EOD but that I was not whipping anyone up to kill him. I listed him second in my initial POE stab after sweet because my POE was essentially sweet + a handful of nulls at that point. I kept working and thinking about the game and never really demoted Will from my second guess… but no one can realistically say I was pushing people to kill Will.

Anyone fairly reading the Battle Master situation would realize how batshit ridiculous it is to assert that the mafia would spend their power to make lfischl of all people a clear. Bro was cruising for a modkill right afterward and it’s only by my terrible decision to sub that he wasn’t. This is obviously a post hoc invention sweet needs to justify his push and not an objective view of the evidence.

sweet is either scum or moronic town, but either way I will credit his work ethic. He’s going to outwork me on this. He might even get me killed. I do not care. Do what you will.

Serious question: you feel very defeatist here, is it due to lack of time?

[BunnyGo]

Three town PRs. Plus Food.

So one missing PR.

Two probable Mafia PRs, so one missing Mafia PR.

But what am I supposed to solve with that?

Town!Sweet doesn't suck this hard at math and solving.

C'mon man, you're not this stupid. Is it babybrain (TM)?

Why aren't you voting him?

Will is a terrible vote.

Eden is a terrible vote.

Bunny is a terrible vote.

Do better, town. (and the scum on Eden)