M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[sweetandcool]

In that case, how statistically likely do you think it is the scum would use the BM power on D2, and Eden/lfischl is scum? Please look at the wagons that day.

What do you think of my case regarding the duel?

Unfortunately, I am not nearly able to participate the way I want.

But I spent a ton of time solving. But it also takes a ton of time writing a good case, which I wish I could have written better.

I can definitely see a world where lfischl/Eden is scum, but it is an extra-complicated world, and I don't think it is a good idea to make a hero call right now.

Everything for the scumteam unravels if we flip Eden. It helps us correctly Town several players, and it guides us towards the rest of scum.

But if we can't have Eden I personally am confident about Bunny now. He is playing his scum game last night and today. Bunny is a great player and his response today has been incredibly apathetic and disinterested.

I think at least one of aaro and Colby are Mafia, though probably even both. But we'd have a better idea if we flip Eden.

[President Eden]

The only thing that will “unravel” if you flip me is your farcical self-image as a competent mafia player.

[sweetandcool]

Honestly, the more you keep going, the more I hope you win the thunderdome. I don’t have to suffer through this anymore and you look completely ridiculous. Win-win

You could try solving.

Suppose sweetandcool is Mafia.

Now bowtie a narrative that solves a couple Mafia and/or gives compelling evidence for some players to be Town.

Or just talk about disparate players and their individual likelihood of being scum based on their performance in the game so far. Like you’ve been doing for a while now.

I don’t care to. You’re exhausting.

Another part of your scum meta, which I have always admired. You are great at seeming reasonable despite not interacting much with your accuser. You let your accuser rant until they inadvertently pit Town against them.

Fine, play your scum game. I am not fooled.

[sweetandcool]

The only thing that will “unravel” if you flip me is your farcical self-image as a competent mafia player.

[President Eden]

##unvote

[sweetandcool]

The only thing that will “unravel” if you flip me is your farcical self-image as a competent mafia player.

Eden is actually pretty nice. He's willing to resort to insults because he is scum. Because he respects the game and wants to give us the greatest challenge possible when he is Mafia. So he is happy to use emotional trickery.

Town Eden would not insult me here.

[sweetandcool]

Look at Eden's votes each day. He's literally never voted Mafia at any point any day. Impressive.

[sweetandcool]

Look at Eden's votes each day. He's literally never voted Mafia at any point any day. Impressive.

Though his predecessor did bus Flum D1 and voted Balki the last second D2.

[foodcoats]

IMG_1258.jpeg

Me watching as town loses one of their two remaining miskills because i pulled up a meme hella fast

Weird how you talk about town in the third person

Wow, shading Will again.

Sweet, this case doesn't make sense unless you know Will is town - which I assume you don't. It does not help to death-tunnel Eden if you are town.

[foodcoats]

Current towncore:
Foxcastle
foodcoats
Ezio
aarodactyl
BunnyGo
worcej

Rough kill priority (high to low):
sweetandcool
JustAGuyNamedWill
Bonatogether
TheMadMonarch
Col7by


Some level of rationale forthcoming

His first four on the kill priority are Town. Who'd have thunk?

What? How do you know Just, Bona, and Monarch are all town?

[foodcoats]

First of all, source on the claim that town driven = active player kill. That doesn’t pass muster.
You even handwave d1 when that day theoretically should be the best day to observe trends like that; town have little to go on and hit the nail sticking out the farthest, while mafia go for uncontroversial kills on inactive to avoid committing to stances on active players.

Second, you know food, Fox, and Ezio were the main drivers of d5 right? You’ve got them all in town or town leans. So by your own reads you can’t really say d5 was scum driven. I guess you want to pin it all on me and sweet and aaro, but that just doesn’t track with what actually happened.

Eden is very correct that the majority of wagons everyday have been mostly Town driven. Part of that has to do with us clearing Eden too early. Part of that has to do with excessive amounts of policy kills essentially.

There have been no policy kills so far.

[foodcoats]

doubt I’m going anywhere, but just in case…

“Logical” guess: sweetandcool, JustAGuyNamedWill, MadMonarch, ???

“Wild” guess: sweetandcool, worcej, Ezio, ???

Just don’t kill Fox, food, Bunny, aaro.
Bona stonks up, worc stonks down

It looks to me his solve literally includes zero Mafia.

Eden's solve aligns pretty well with what the dead have suggested to me, FWIW.

[foodcoats]

Sweet, I appreciate the effort, but you do not have me convinced in any way. You are extremely tunneled and it looks, from my POV, like you are trying to get a miskill.

[BunnyGo]

Sweet, I appreciate the effort, but you do not have me convinced in any way. You are extremely tunneled and it looks, from my POV, like you are trying to get a miskill.

This 100%

It’s so over the top I’m assuming the scum team decided to sacrifice sweet today since we weren’t quiet about wanting to vote him.

[Ezio]

I would really like to consolidate here. I am happy with Sweet or Will.
I think Sweet is grasping at straws to get a miskill.
I've seen both Eden and Bunny ##vote Sweet earlier today, so maybe this will be easier to rally around.

[President Eden]

I would really like to consolidate here. I am happy with Sweet or Will.
I think Sweet is grasping at straws to get a miskill.
I’ve seen both Eden and Bunny ##vote Sweet earlier today, so maybe this will be easier to rally around.

He’s obviously not.

[President Eden]

Monarch is perpetually afk, the main sentiment coming into today was to kill Will, and scum decided to… sac sweet to push me? With two miskills left to win?

No way.

[sweetandcool]

Sweet, I appreciate the effort, but you do not have me convinced in any way. You are extremely tunneled and it looks, from my POV, like you are trying to get a miskill.

If I am trying to MK why the fuck am I targeting Eden of all players? Someone who I have been towing basically all game before I started working on solving last night?

I am trying to avoid us losing and we absolutely need to kill scum here or it is likely over for us.

Please read my last night post again. Then you will see the reason for my Town reads.

Eden and Bunny have basically let their masks slip early because they are so confident they will win. Which makes it more likely they have a power that practically clinches it if we MK here.

[sweetandcool]

Here is a fun thought experiment. Suppose all players who I correctly list as Town actually listen to me and either vote Eden or Bunny.

The more accurate my list, the more players who help us win. And if I'm actually scum then I either post an inaccurate list and nobody moves or I post an accurate list and I solve the game for you all.

Town:

Ezio
Food
Bona
worcej
Will
MadMonarch

[sweetandcool]

Here is a fun thought experiment. Suppose all players who I correctly list as Town actually listen to me and either vote Eden or Bunny.

The more accurate my list, the more players who help us win. And if I'm actually scum then I either post an inaccurate list and nobody moves or I post an accurate list and I solve the game for you all.

Town:

Ezio
Food
Bona
worcej
Will
MadMonarch

Treat this as the final three. One player hammers another and the game DOESN'T end. In this case one player solves Town. Are they Mafia using TMI to go deep? Or are they desperately trying to save the game?