M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[foodcoats]

Sweet you apparently scumread Vecna for:

-not reacting to your fake guilty claim on me
-Vecna's idea that you were tadpoled

Are there any other reasons you think Vecna is scum?

Sorry for the lack of quotes, no time to do this properly. I only looked at D4/N4/D5.

I'm operating mostly on instinct so it's not like I have a compelling argument. Yes, Vecna was online and did not react at all which potentially points to cautious scum. Otherwise, his push on me seems like it is coming from scum and I suspect it is actually him who was tadpoles.

Yeah I admit Vecna being alive may indicate he is evil.

[foodcoats]

Sweet you apparently scumread Vecna for:

-not reacting to your fake guilty claim on me
-Vecna's idea that you were tadpoled

Are there any other reasons you think Vecna is scum?

Sorry for the lack of quotes, no time to do this properly. I only looked at D4/N4/D5.

I'm operating mostly on instinct so it's not like I have a compelling argument. Yes, Vecna was online and did not react at all which potentially points to cautious scum. Otherwise, his push on me seems like it is coming from scum and I suspect it is actually him who was tadpoles.

Yeah I admit Vecna being alive may indicate he is evil.

But there’s not going to be a successful Vecna wagon today. You should help kill yoyo - providing your rationale as you already scumread him but I don’t know why - or think about Just.

[sweetandcool]

Actually sweet said he'd vote yoyo today, let me check what sweet has had to say on yoyo previously...

Oh dear, not much. I've obviously picked up on what he is doing in regards to me. Considering getting really isn't doing much of substance he seems the best "lurker" to flip.

[sweetandcool]

Okay so I was checking up on sweet's yoyo reads. He says today he will only vote for yoyo or Vecna.

So I'm going back and I'm thinking, well, maybe he did legitimately come up with a reason to scumread yoyo. Here he says that yoyo made a scumclaim:

Well it’s easy to be paranoid when your confirmed mafia lol. When you’re town, it’s less paranoia and more like… that was some weird shit. I don’t know if I can trust that information

I keep forgetting about your scumclaim. We really ought to do something about that next phase.

But then I go back further, and... this is where sweet says yoyo made a "scumclaim." This is not a scumclaim, this is yoyo scumreading sweet. sweet has "scumclaim" on the brain even though yoyo did not claim scum (which, as a counterpoint, I did - in a terrible jest I now regret).

Willing to hammer sweet and vote end tomorrow.

Scumclaim?

Sweet, why do you scumread yoyo?

Basically what I just said, more that his behavior makes no sense and he is effectively a lurker. So to me he is the best lurker to flip.

Also he literally scum claimed.

[sweetandcool]

Alright I need to cool my boots for a bit. Let's make the wagons good.

##VOTE sweetandcool

Convenient for you to try to DK the only person who can validate that you are delivering the messages of the dead accurately :D

[sweetandcool]

I'm operating mostly on instinct so it's not like I have a compelling argument. Yes, Vecna was online and did not react at all which potentially points to cautious scum. Otherwise, his push on me seems like it is coming from scum and I suspect it is actually him who was tadpoles.

Yeah I admit Vecna being alive may indicate he is evil.

But there’s not going to be a successful Vecna wagon today. You should help kill yoyo - providing your rationale as you already scumread him but I don’t know why - or think about Just.

Yes, I could see Just as Mafia. For reasons other people have provided in thread. Of course, if I vote for him it looks disingenuous because I pretty much haven't mentioned him.

It is compelling the idea he is super busy posting in Daychat and that is why he is quiet.

I would be willing to vote him. Though in a normal game I would tell you I haven't really thought about him and would need to read his ISO ect. Before reaching a decision.

[dargorygel]

Yoyoyozo (3) Yoyoyozo, TheMadMonarch, Dousing
Dousing (2) Ezio, President Eden
Vecna (2) JustAGuyNamedWill, sweetandcool
worcej (1) Foxcastle
aarodactyl (1) Bonatogether
President Eden (1) BunnyGo
BunnyGo (1) Col7by
sweetandcool (1) foodcoats

Not Voted… Dangerously… aarodactyl, Vecna, worcej

4 and a quarter hours left in the day

[foodcoats]

Also, be prepared that we have killed two GOONS. Scum on the block WILL CLAIM, and they can "truthfully" claim multiple roles because they can claim the actions of another PR on their team (e.g. if the BM is on the block they could claim a different PR they know they have).

Everyone needs to think about that and be prepared to deal with it. You need to know who your backup wagon is. Otherwise scum could use daychat and a claim to push a townie onto the block.

To build on this, yoyo is tactically a good backup wagon because Monarch is parked there.

Unless someone wants to explain something I’m missing on yoyo’s style.

[foodcoats]

One of Flum's last posts before disappearing EOD3. Considering he did not return to vote and was almost daykilled, it seems to me these thoughts were probably meaningful. We know Fox is town and this makes me think he was okay prodding a possible Aaro wagon as well for those who townread him at the time. I don't know that I can draw the same conclusion about yoyo or Will, because he could fake-townread actual town, but I think this makes Aaro look good.

I have to go grocery shopping for a bit, 24 hour phases are rough.

Don't really see much convincing me on Yoyo or Will. I'd rather vote Fox or Aaro right now. Call it omgus if you want

[foodcoats]

Basically, he said he saw Balki's death in the bot, and not Damo and Dip's, even though they're literally in the same place one line lower

You scumread Bunny because he didn’t see a webpage the same way you did?

Go to this post.
https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=408356#p408356

Bunny confirmed he saw the Balki death in this location. He also said he didn't know damo or dip died. It is basically impossible to see this area and not see the damo/dip deaths listed right next to Balki's death below.


Which makes it pretty clear Bunny is trying to pretend to be more clueless than he actually is.

I forgot about this whole ridiculous conversation.

Bunny is almost locktown when I look back at this. Would Fluminator really go to these lengths to scumread a teammate?

[foodcoats]

And to further cement it, Flum really went on for a LONG TIME about that Bunny case. I just do not believe he would do that on D3 to a teammate right after Balki got flipped.

Bunny town. Town bunny. Go bunny. Go town!

[foodcoats]

Day 1:
All 4 wagons were town. I was wagoned right before then so I'd count myself as a 5th wagon so town was just completely clueless that day. This makes VCA a little tricky other than scum did not care what happened.

This makes the people who pushed for info flips on all of day 1 wagons and using that as a crutch very suspicious in my eyes and something to look for. Because it is true that is often a logically good thing to do and it's such a perfect excuse to push for miskills without getting much flak that scum had to do it.

Day 2:
The Battlemaster day. It has to be used before 30 minutes which means if it was a mafia power, it was used before the duel.

Ideal use of it as a mafia power, is to use it when it looks pretty clear mafia is being daykilled so they can kill an extra townie with a counterwagon. It was such a perfect situation for mafia d2 getting a PR that I did assume it was a mafia PR usage (until I saw the 30 minute time limit and couldn't have known) It is not ideal to use it to get 2 town wagon/counterwagon killed as that gives off so much info. On early days as the more flips at the beginning, the more info the town has to work with which is bad for maf. This is a power mafia would save to use for situations similar to what happened day 2.

On the other hand, it makes sense for town to use it early to speed up the flips so we have more info earlier without giving mafia as many nightkills. Honestly, the best case against it not being a town usage is that it didn't happen day 1, but day 2 is still pretty close to use it.

It's not a certainty it was a town usage, but the evidence really points to it being town, especially since Balki's flailing looked to be taking any opportunity to convince town to flip their vote on Dip or do a Nokill.

This makes people assuming it's a scum battlemanster to fit their narrative to push a kill very suspicious. Especially to base their whole argument on an unproven assumption that is less likely to be true.

Day 3:
This day was very F-name phobic. I haven't read this one as closely yet, but foodcoats does look reasonably bad tbh since it did feel like the anxiety was a lot higher than in day 1 when there were no scum up for kill. But also Fox was the dominant wagon not long before deadline, so he looks about equally bad as food based on wagon analysis.

So if we look at players, Fox is basically guilty of all of this.
He has declared an assumption to be true, that there was a scum battlemaster that wanted to use it day 1, but couldn't because there was a scum wagoned that day. He's been using this to push for daykills. It's such a crafted scenario and one he says was kind of a random thing he's sticking to. That's literally how scum work, pick a player and look for evidence after.

Fox also is pushing the scum battlemaster narrative which conveniently would make EOD2 mainly irrelevant. Because if it's a town battlemaster, and scum didn't know, Fox looks VERY scummy doing everything he could to avoid voting Balki and pushing Dip (for no reasons given outside being a day 1 wagon needing to be cleared up?)

I'm still not quite over that he pushed me out of nowhere immediately after I voted Bunny. I can agree the case on Bunny might not be the best, but it felt like a chainsaw (where a scum player attacks a player who votes a partner to divert the attention).

I'm VERY certain Foxcastle is scum. I don't expect people to believe me yet since the certainty comes from my unique position I've been put in and knowing the Fox narrative is wrong to begin with. But PLEASE REMEMBER THIS POST, COME BACK TO IT, AND READ IT if I die and become confirmed town.

I think we have largely agreed that the BM is scum, but Flum's fixation on the BM here and his use of it as a tool to shade people make me think even moreso that BM is scum. Reason being that Flum knew there was no town BM who could come to disagree with him.

[aarodactyl]

i think at a certain point we need to accept that food shouldn't be a dk, but he cannot be in lylo

I agree. My only caveat would be that being PR gives a chance for him to end up as a town clear

[aarodactyl]

Mostly that his posts focus nearly entirely on mechs and out of game stuff. If this AI? I dunno. But it’s not towny solvy aaro.

So about as strong as any of the cases you just criticized.

No. It regards his lack of in game posts of substance. He's made one or two since.

Ok...this is as caught up as I am. I've seen the Jamie flip, but nothing else.

Tonight starts the 49-50 hour holiday of Shavuot. The holiday commemorating when the jews were given the torah.

As part of the modern holiday, it is customary to stay up all night studying, learning, and teaching.

I didn't find any study groups to go to. But my plan (after my wife is asleep) is to stay up as late as I can reviewing the key votes, comments, and movements for days 1/2/3/4 including brand new coloring (sorry Jamie) and insights.

I hope we all find this a meaningful holiday study session.

I didn’t notice this comment until I saw worcej’s response to it. It really shows how out of touch I am with Jewish holidays these days that I think this is the second time I’ve been reminded of a holiday through your mafia postings

[Vecna]

alright I am back home from Rome now, and just got back from a long day of work.

And ofcourse sweet and Will are voting me

[aarodactyl]

This is all bad.

##vote Pres

Just to clarify, this is all based on the following quote?

Based on Day 1 and Day 2:

I think sweet is the sketchiest, something offputting about that guy. But it could be me.

I think food is the weirdest. How did he know to vote in a duel? Where did he go?

I think Fishy is the fishiest. He placed weird and crucial votes and disappeared at weird times.

##vote pres

It feels very weird to me to vote pres solely based on fish’s actions for the first two days. Has he done anything since subbing in that makes you think he’s scummy?

Considering we’re on day, selecting your vote just based on early game activity feels like you’re using a pretty narrow sample.

[aarodactyl]

Based on the information I have unearthed and shared so far, I think we should vote between sweet, yoyo, and Just. These are relatively aligned to the wisdom of the dead, as well. Although some people are saying my PR is useless, keep in mind that they are TOWNCLEARS. Their opinions are not misleading you. You may think I am, I guess, but... I'm not.

In the next night phase, can you ask the ghosts how closely they’re keeping up with the thread? I’m guessing kak is but I have no idea how much the other ones are reading considering how many pages we have.

[Vecna]

I have decided that today shall be extra interesting



Your vote matters.

The clock is unknown

[aarodactyl]

Also, be prepared that we have killed two GOONS. Scum on the block WILL CLAIM, and they can "truthfully" claim multiple roles because they can claim the actions of another PR on their team (e.g. if the BM is on the block they could claim a different PR they know they have).

Everyone needs to think about that and be prepared to deal with it. You need to know who your backup wagon is. Otherwise scum could use daychat and a claim to push a townie onto the block.

Ironically this point makes me question your alignment a bit. Do you remember the first time you started ghost posting? I think it was before flum was shot so we only had one goon flipped at that point?

[foodcoats]

Also, be prepared that we have killed two GOONS. Scum on the block WILL CLAIM, and they can "truthfully" claim multiple roles because they can claim the actions of another PR on their team (e.g. if the BM is on the block they could claim a different PR they know they have).

Everyone needs to think about that and be prepared to deal with it. You need to know who your backup wagon is. Otherwise scum could use daychat and a claim to push a townie onto the block.

Ironically this point makes me question your alignment a bit. Do you remember the first time you started ghost posting? I think it was before flum was shot so we only had one goon flipped at that point?

It was N2. N1 it was just me and HamiltonBrian so we didn't have much to report.