M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[BunnyGo]

Manual reconstruction of the vote count immediately before the duel. Apologies if I’ve made any errors…

DiplomacyandWarfare (5) DemonRHK*, worcej, Foxcastle, Jamiet99uk, Yoyoyozo
Jamiet99uk (2) Fluminator, Ezio
ghug (3) FlaviusAetius, Dousing, JustAGuyNamedWill
lfischl (3) Col7by, Vecna, aarodactyl
damo666 (1) TheMadMonarch
FlaviusAetius (1) bonatogether
Dousing (2) Balki Bartokomous, ghug
Ezio (1) foodcoats
sweetandcool (1) BunnyGo
Diplomacy&Warfare (1) lfischl
Balki (3) Squigs44, DiplomacyandWarfare, sweetandcool

why is ghug green?

[Bonatogether]

Manual reconstruction of the vote count immediately before the duel. Apologies if I’ve made any errors…

DiplomacyandWarfare (5) DemonRHK*, worcej, Foxcastle, Jamiet99uk, Yoyoyozo
Jamiet99uk (2) Fluminator, Ezio
ghug (3) FlaviusAetius, Dousing, JustAGuyNamedWill
lfischl (3) Col7by, Vecna, aarodactyl
damo666 (1) TheMadMonarch
FlaviusAetius (1) bonatogether
Dousing (2) Balki Bartokomous, ghug
Ezio (1) foodcoats
sweetandcool (1) BunnyGo
Diplomacy&Warfare (1) lfischl
Balki (3) Squigs44, DiplomacyandWarfare, sweetandcool

why is ghug green?

unless you believe that 1) the janitor is town who hasn't claimed and that 2) ghug was scum (notably an assumption that needs the first but isn't guaranteed by the first at all!), he can only be town

[Yoyoyozo]

Manual reconstruction of the vote count immediately before the duel. Apologies if I’ve made any errors…

DiplomacyandWarfare (5) DemonRHK*, worcej, Foxcastle, Jamiet99uk, Yoyoyozo
Jamiet99uk (2) Fluminator, Ezio
ghug (3) FlaviusAetius, Dousing, JustAGuyNamedWill
lfischl (3) Col7by, Vecna, aarodactyl
damo666 (1) TheMadMonarch
FlaviusAetius (1) bonatogether
Dousing (2) Balki Bartokomous, ghug
Ezio (1) foodcoats
sweetandcool (1) BunnyGo
Diplomacy&Warfare (1) lfischl
Balki (3) Squigs44, DiplomacyandWarfare, sweetandcool

why is ghug green?

Ha ha

[Yoyoyozo]

Manual reconstruction of the vote count immediately before the duel. Apologies if I’ve made any errors…

DiplomacyandWarfare (5) DemonRHK*, worcej, Foxcastle, Jamiet99uk, Yoyoyozo
Jamiet99uk (2) Fluminator, Ezio
ghug (3) FlaviusAetius, Dousing, JustAGuyNamedWill
lfischl (3) Col7by, Vecna, aarodactyl
damo666 (1) TheMadMonarch
FlaviusAetius (1) bonatogether
Dousing (2) Balki Bartokomous, ghug
Ezio (1) foodcoats
sweetandcool (1) BunnyGo
Diplomacy&Warfare (1) lfischl
Balki (3) Squigs44, DiplomacyandWarfare, sweetandcool

why is ghug green?

unless you believe that 1) the janitor is town who hasn't claimed and that 2) ghug was scum (notably an assumption that needs the first but isn't guaranteed by the first at all!), he can only be town

I think depending on who flips the D4 NK, we’ll have more information… or not

[Yoyoyozo]

This game got real weird real fast

[President Eden]

Bunny, Jamie look a bit suspect at EOD1; some subtle steering away from Flum.
worcej, sweet look solid
foodcoats looks a bit suspect too tbh but I’m all-in already

Notably a LOT of EOD1 talk and steering comes from since-confirmed town.

[President Eden]

Flum sat on Ham all day D1 and pushed Balki into a 9-9 tie with 9 minutes to go on D2.

Rather less D1 shitposting than I would have thought! Says, "I was one of the leaders of the Hamilton wagon and was wrong rip," which is odd given that he never actually pushed Ham and 5 minutes before D1 EOD he said, "I'm probably willing to flashwagon lfischl but other than that I'm reasonably confident I'll be staying on Hamilton over Flavius, Damo, or Dip".

And then there's a bunch more that seems pretty innocuous.

##VOTE FLUM

I'm going to go see how D1 votes look assuming Flum is scum.

• Sweet briefly votes flum at the very beginning but moves off quickly.
• Dousing votes flum, Flav votes flum. Dousing leaves Flum.
• Sweet joins Flav, but Flav moves off shortly thereafter.
• Flav returns, rejoining Sweet.
• Sweet moves off as we head into EOD, but then comes back quickly.
• Demon pushes Flum into 3rd position with 3 votes.
• lfischl is the fourth vote on Flum, which pushes him back into 3rd position. [00:41]
• Ham makes a fifth vote on Flum, and he's tied for the lead with Damo. [00:38]
• Foodcoats abandons Damo, leaving Flum in the lead with 5 votes.
• Bunny puts Ham in a tie for first with 5 votes each.
• Worcej puts Ham in the lead with 6 votes.
• Ham leaves the Flum wagon, leaving him in 3rd place with four votes.
• Demon leaves the Flum wagon, followed by Flav, and Sweet.

If Flum is scum, this points to foodcoats, Demon, and maybe lfischl being towny, and Bunny and Worcej potentially being scum, based only on VCA. (I don't think Bunny is scum, though.)

This does not dissuade me from my Flum vote.

I just finished my skim of fox's posts. He looks town to me and has been putting effort into solving this game. That's not why I'm bumping this post.

The reason I'm bumping this post is his summary of D1 voting and the state of votes at 30 minutes before EOD1. I hadn't realized that Flum was one of the top 2 wagons at 30 minutes before EOD1 because it had completely died out by EOD. With slightly over 30 minutes left until EOD, the top 4 wagons were:

• Flum - 5
• HB - 5
• Damo- 4
• Flav - 3

At this point in the game (minutes before EOD3), I would assume that a town battlemaster would claim (the role that makes the top 2 wagons die). This isn't certain, but I think it's a pretty safe assumption that the BM is scum. As a result, I highly doubt Flum and Flav are both town. We should make sure we don't forget this point when one of them flips.

I also wrote a note at some point that Flum and Bunny are likely not scum together. It's possible I just completely underestimate the chance of scum theater, but their interactions recently seemed too messy for it to be two scum. Combined with my other point, if Flav is town -> Bunny is town.

My recollection of Flav so far is that they don't seem scummy, so I'm inclined to still vote for Flum.

aaro town stonks

[President Eden]

Hmmm

##VOTE Flum

Sweet join me? Get yer slam dunk?

Jesus openwolfing

Hmmm

##VOTE Flum

Sweet join me? Get yer slam dunk?

No

i found these in the antonym section of “good look” in my dictionary

[sweetandcool]

Hmmm

##VOTE Flum

Sweet join me? Get yer slam dunk?

Jesus openwolfing

Hmmm

##VOTE Flum

Sweet join me? Get yer slam dunk?

No

i found these in the antonym section of “good look” in my dictionary

If Food is Town he could do with being less antagonizing. He's normally nice and cuddly ):

[Yoyoyozo]

I was building my case on sweet and it looks like I had some of the numbers mixed up. The GMs reply to him that I said was the fastest ever is like 3 minutes later. I’m just vibing stuff out, don’t worry about me.

@sweet for what’s it’s worth, I actually think you’re pretty cool, I just think you’re not on town’s side.

[Yoyoyozo]

lol btw however theatrical my reactions are while we’re playing mafia, I just want to say that I do find most of you pleasant and funny.

[worcej]

##call gm

just to be 100% certain - can the arcane tricker role affect flips during the day?

How would it work if the ability is used during the night, and the only kill is the scum NK? Could it still linger untill the next day phase or would it be guaranteed to affect the nk?

It impacts the next flip that occurs, if there is no nightkill it would continue until a flip happens of some kind

The Shade of Squiggs Say

Perchance the mushroom people doth hold the kill of the second of the moonling times
Such that when the one called by the name of generals ancient didst flip
Twas a flip that was a flop
And evil was presented as though it were good

Such spaketh the squiggling shade

Huh?

[sweetandcool]

I was building my case on sweet and it looks like I had some of the numbers mixed up. The GMs reply to him that I said was the fastest ever is like 3 minutes later. I’m just vibing stuff out, don’t worry about me.

@sweet for what’s it’s worth, I actually think you’re pretty cool, I just think you’re not on town’s side.

That's really nice of you. I've been having a wretched game. Also having fun!

Normally I am a very different player. I build some pretty intense cases. This game I feel like my intuition has been reasonably good, but because I'm relying on my intuition I feel extra paranoid and uncertain. And because I'm also relying on it, I can't properly make a case on anyone.

I feel very strongly Food and Vecna are Mafia, but because I'm just relying on what I've read and not digging into the details etc., then there is no hope of assessing how likely I am to be accurate, and there is no hope I help Town except by random chance.

Also, the GMs response was freaky fast, considering I did not even call him (too much GM, boo).

[Yoyoyozo]

I was building my case on sweet and it looks like I had some of the numbers mixed up. The GMs reply to him that I said was the fastest ever is like 3 minutes later. I’m just vibing stuff out, don’t worry about me.

@sweet for what’s it’s worth, I actually think you’re pretty cool, I just think you’re not on town’s side.

That's really nice of you. I've been having a wretched game. Also having fun!

Normally I am a very different player. I build some pretty intense cases. This game I feel like my intuition has been reasonably good, but because I'm relying on my intuition I feel extra paranoid and uncertain. And because I'm also relying on it, I can't properly make a case on anyone.

I feel very strongly Food and Vecna are Mafia, but because I'm just relying on what I've read and not digging into the details etc., then there is no hope of assessing how likely I am to be accurate, and there is no hope I help Town except by random chance.

Also, the GMs response was freaky fast, considering I did not even call him (too much GM, boo).

Well it’s easy to be paranoid when your confirmed mafia lol. When you’re town, it’s less paranoia and more like… that was some weird shit. I don’t know if I can trust that information

[sweetandcool]

I was building my case on sweet and it looks like I had some of the numbers mixed up. The GMs reply to him that I said was the fastest ever is like 3 minutes later. I’m just vibing stuff out, don’t worry about me.

@sweet for what’s it’s worth, I actually think you’re pretty cool, I just think you’re not on town’s side.

That's really nice of you. I've been having a wretched game. Also having fun!

Normally I am a very different player. I build some pretty intense cases. This game I feel like my intuition has been reasonably good, but because I'm relying on my intuition I feel extra paranoid and uncertain. And because I'm also relying on it, I can't properly make a case on anyone.

I feel very strongly Food and Vecna are Mafia, but because I'm just relying on what I've read and not digging into the details etc., then there is no hope of assessing how likely I am to be accurate, and there is no hope I help Town except by random chance.

Also, the GMs response was freaky fast, considering I did not even call him (too much GM, boo).

Well it’s easy to be paranoid when your confirmed mafia lol. When you’re town, it’s less paranoia and more like… that was some weird shit. I don’t know if I can trust that information

I keep forgetting about your scumclaim. We really ought to do something about that next phase.

[BunnyGo]

Lord Beancomb announced "A DUEL HATH BEEN INITIATED, DILLY DILLY" on page 153.

At that moment in time, before anyone moved their votes, the vote tally was:

Diplomacy&Warfare(6)- DemonRHK, Foxcastle, Jamiet99uk, Lfischl, Worcej, Yoyoyozo
Ghug(3)- Dousing, Flavius, JustAGuyNamedWill
Lfischl(3)- aarodactyl, Col7by, Vecna
Balki(3)- Diplomacy&Warfare, Squigs, Sweetandcool
Dousing(2)- Balki, Ghug
Jamiet99uk(2)- Ezio, Fluminator
Flavius(1)- Bonatogether
Sweetandcool(1)- BunnyGo
Ezio(1)- Foodcoats
Damo666(1)- TheMadMonarch

Note: Damo had his vote on Bonatogether when he died, but since Damo had died, that was no longer counted.

Here it was, Night 2, I already did this homework.

why did you not want him adding more color?

[Vecna]

Squigs is pointing out that a mafia Arcane Trickster might have used their power n2, and the mafia held their kill so that the next daykill (whoever it would be) would flip wrong.

brainboms explenation made it sound like any nk woukd concume it.

so if it was used n2 it would imply that flav was scum.

unless im completely misunderstabding it, flums flip could not have been mod8fied because there was a nk n3

[BunnyGo]

I’m in the office now and have a fairly light day planned so I’m hoping to catch up on the last day or so of posts. However it looks like I have a 1:30-2pm meeting on my schedule and 2pm is eod in my time zone so I won’t be around for it. Webdip is also banned by our work firewall for some reason so I’ll be on mobile so I’ll be keeping my posts short and not well formatted.

can i recommend a vpn?

[BunnyGo]

Squigs is pointing out that a mafia Arcane Trickster might have used their power n2, and the mafia held their kill so that the next daykill (whoever it would be) would flip wrong.

brainboms explenation made it sound like any nk woukd concume it.

so if it was used n2 it would imply that flav was scum.

unless im completely misunderstabding it, flums flip could not have been mod8fied because there was a nk n3

ghug died before flav.

I guess you could ask the GM about that, but we've been assuming it would be tricking the janitor

[Vecna]

Hmmm

##VOTE Flum

Sweet join me? Get yer slam dunk?

Jesus openwolfing

Hmmm

##VOTE Flum

Sweet join me? Get yer slam dunk?

No

i found these in the antonym section of “good look” in my dictionary

now look at the post where im questioning sweet about his d3 progression on flum.