M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[sweetandcool]

Wait, what?

Read it again

Yoyo, when you made this reply, did you believe sweet had a guilty scan on me?

Food, I was expecting at least a chortle over this. Or if you were traumatized a bit of an angry response.

What gives?

[sweetandcool]

cringe take, disregarded

Ignoring tadpole (and for now please assume this is always the case since I will get sick of prefacing every comment with this), I think Bunny is Town.

So why this totally backwards take?

food and Fox are widely scumread and based on yesterday it seems like at least one ought to be Mafia. food is either Mafia or not a (useful?) PR since he didn't claim and nearly died.

Flum is potentially lockscum depending on which team has BM. And Bunny and Vecna have been "tinfoiling" over the potential of sweetandcool being tadpole froggy boy.

Explanation, Bunny?

My understanding of all the cases is some combination of:

I didn’t like his energy

If I voted him it’d clear something up for me

In my view if a combination of hypotheticals then he could be scum

I think all of those reasons are stupid. And either east scum push or mistaken town. Might they get someone that way? Sure. Is it a good reason for them to be a leading wagon? Fuck no.

That's fair, I wish I had time to build proper cases.

[sweetandcool]

this post is dogshit

Eh? I mean maybe if I ISO Bunny these questions will be answered. Otherwise, I think it's fine.

No.

You tried using peer pressure and “it’s obviously good” implications to railroad these wagons.

This is scummy

Weird, I thought it was more like "these are not obviously Town" implications. My bad.

[Vecna]

Now that y’all are done yapping about other things and are doing duel VCA, you should just check my ISO because I did the work for you already.

Of interest:
https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=409490#p409490
https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=409706#p409706
https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=409732#p409732
https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=409757#p409757

Most of my analysis discounted the possibility of the mafia having the Battle Master power. I admittedly overlooked it, and if that’s a dealbreaker for you, that’s okay. But if you care about duel VCA at all, you presumably think the Battle Master is more likely town than mafia (because if the mafia knew in advance that both players were dying today anyway, they wouldn’t have the same incentives to care about the duel). So it should be helpful.

Do you think the battlemaster is town at this point? Is your analysis relevant?

I do. I believe the mafia Battle Master would have been used on day 1, given how many townies were up for grabs at T-30mins d1. Fluminator is the only unknown in the at-risk group for d1, and it wouldn’t have been difficult for mafia to manipulate the wagons to keep him out of second if he is mafia.

And I definitely don’t think they would use it to secure a double kill on lfischl and D&W. True, it would be two town kills, which is the goal. But it was already clear that both would be viable miskill targets. If they didn’t fire it off day 1, they obviously want to be somewhat discerning in who they hit. In that case they wouldn’t try to get lfischl.

Meanwhile, a town Battle Master would be pretty eager to flip an inactive like lfischl on a day where D&W looked to be a runaway kill.

The current baseline random chance for BM to be town is 57%. The evidence, to me, is more suggestive than random that BM is town. So I’m pretty confident that BM is town, my analysis holds, and we should kill Fox today.

maybe the prioritization of stuff changed. dont forget balki replaced in n1, under new management n all that.

if flum was their ruler, theres no way they put him at risk d1

[sweetandcool]

##vote aaro

Vecna, before this vote on aaro, you spent perhaps a dozen votes claiming Flum may have signalled sweet to tadpole him. For such a theory to be true, you have to believe Flum is scum.

Why exactly did you spend all that effort talking about a Flum scum move only to land on aaro? What pushed you to vote aaro about whom you have comparatively nothing to say?

because im not certain enough.

Its sort of the self-awareness that my brain often looks for these slightly tinfoil-y connections/patterns that might fit and coukd be possible, but where the plausability is questionable.

Its just that deja vu feeling that often when i see patterns of connected people, the scum team is much more often just the unconnected scummy individuals.

tldr; just because it could have happened does not mean it actually happened.

Woah, this somehow sounds like brainbomb's method. Except he posts more, of course.

[sweetandcool]

@Bunny could you explain why aaro is Mafia? Like do you feel convicted? Can you make a case?

Mostly that his posts focus nearly entirely on mechs and out of game stuff. If this AI? I dunno. But it’s not towny solvy aaro.

So about as strong as any of the cases you just criticized.

[President Eden]

Do you think the battlemaster is town at this point? Is your analysis relevant?

I do. I believe the mafia Battle Master would have been used on day 1, given how many townies were up for grabs at T-30mins d1. Fluminator is the only unknown in the at-risk group for d1, and it wouldn’t have been difficult for mafia to manipulate the wagons to keep him out of second if he is mafia.

And I definitely don’t think they would use it to secure a double kill on lfischl and D&W. True, it would be two town kills, which is the goal. But it was already clear that both would be viable miskill targets. If they didn’t fire it off day 1, they obviously want to be somewhat discerning in who they hit. In that case they wouldn’t try to get lfischl.

Meanwhile, a town Battle Master would be pretty eager to flip an inactive like lfischl on a day where D&W looked to be a runaway kill.

The current baseline random chance for BM to be town is 57%. The evidence, to me, is more suggestive than random that BM is town. So I’m pretty confident that BM is town, my analysis holds, and we should kill Fox today.

maybe the prioritization of stuff changed. dont forget balki replaced in n1, under new management n all that.

if flum was their ruler, theres no way they put him at risk d1

That’s fair, but even accepting that Fluminator is mafia and they were too risk-averse to put Fluminator at risk, their targeting of lfischl d2 doesn’t make a lot of sense. I say that knowing he’s town, but from your POV there’s also the chance that lfischl is mafia, which would make even less sense.

Again, I don’t think this makes it 100% certain, reasonable doubt remains and all that. But I think the evidence at least favors town BM hypothesis, and town BM hypothesis is also inherently favored based on current role flips (57% likelihood ignoring all data and looking only at random chance). It’s good enough for me, but I understand if it isn’t good enough for everyone else

[sweetandcool]

Eden, Flum, and sweetandcool:

Can you please explain your scumreads of Fox? I am not following it, and you all placed naked votes. Could each of you sum up why you are voting for Fox?

Scum theater with Balki. Performing well below the standard of play I would expect from him by "scumreading" obvTown Dip.

[Vecna]

Vecna, before this vote on aaro, you spent perhaps a dozen votes claiming Flum may have signalled sweet to tadpole him. For such a theory to be true, you have to believe Flum is scum.

Why exactly did you spend all that effort talking about a Flum scum move only to land on aaro? What pushed you to vote aaro about whom you have comparatively nothing to say?

because im not certain enough.

Its sort of the self-awareness that my brain often looks for these slightly tinfoil-y connections/patterns that might fit and coukd be possible, but where the plausability is questionable.

Its just that deja vu feeling that often when i see patterns of connected people, the scum team is much more often just the unconnected scummy individuals.

tldr; just because it could have happened does not mean it actually happened.

Woah, this somehow sounds like brainbomb's method. Except he posts more, of course.

my scale goes possible/probable/fact. This game im not trying to focus too hard on everything thats possible, but consist of a number of small moving parts.

brainbomb has 2 other scales before possible that sometimes go all the way up to "the earth isnt flat, its a 4 dimensional trapezoid inhabited by giant space hamsters". He gets it right often enough as well though and gets ignored.

But your attempt to shade me has been noted.

[Fluminator]

Eden, Flum, and sweetandcool:

Can you please explain your scumreads of Fox? I am not following it, and you all placed naked votes. Could each of you sum up why you are voting for Fox?

Day 1:
All 4 wagons were town. I was wagoned right before then so I'd count myself as a 5th wagon so town was just completely clueless that day. This makes VCA a little tricky other than scum did not care what happened.

This makes the people who pushed for info flips on all of day 1 wagons and using that as a crutch very suspicious in my eyes and something to look for. Because it is true that is often a logically good thing to do and it's such a perfect excuse to push for miskills without getting much flak that scum had to do it.

Day 2:
The Battlemaster day. It has to be used before 30 minutes which means if it was a mafia power, it was used before the duel.

Ideal use of it as a mafia power, is to use it when it looks pretty clear mafia is being daykilled so they can kill an extra townie with a counterwagon. It was such a perfect situation for mafia d2 getting a PR that I did assume it was a mafia PR usage (until I saw the 30 minute time limit and couldn't have known) It is not ideal to use it to get 2 town wagon/counterwagon killed as that gives off so much info. On early days as the more flips at the beginning, the more info the town has to work with which is bad for maf. This is a power mafia would save to use for situations similar to what happened day 2.

On the other hand, it makes sense for town to use it early to speed up the flips so we have more info earlier without giving mafia as many nightkills. Honestly, the best case against it not being a town usage is that it didn't happen day 1, but day 2 is still pretty close to use it.

It's not a certainty it was a town usage, but the evidence really points to it being town, especially since Balki's flailing looked to be taking any opportunity to convince town to flip their vote on Dip or do a Nokill.

This makes people assuming it's a scum battlemanster to fit their narrative to push a kill very suspicious. Especially to base their whole argument on an unproven assumption that is less likely to be true.

Day 3:
This day was very F-name phobic. I haven't read this one as closely yet, but foodcoats does look reasonably bad tbh since it did feel like the anxiety was a lot higher than in day 1 when there were no scum up for kill. But also Fox was the dominant wagon not long before deadline, so he looks about equally bad as food based on wagon analysis.

So if we look at players, Fox is basically guilty of all of this.
He has declared an assumption to be true, that there was a scum battlemaster that wanted to use it day 1, but couldn't because there was a scum wagoned that day. He's been using this to push for daykills. It's such a crafted scenario and one he says was kind of a random thing he's sticking to. That's literally how scum work, pick a player and look for evidence after.

Fox also is pushing the scum battlemaster narrative which conveniently would make EOD2 mainly irrelevant. Because if it's a town battlemaster, and scum didn't know, Fox looks VERY scummy doing everything he could to avoid voting Balki and pushing Dip (for no reasons given outside being a day 1 wagon needing to be cleared up?)

I'm still not quite over that he pushed me out of nowhere immediately after I voted Bunny. I can agree the case on Bunny might not be the best, but it felt like a chainsaw (where a scum player attacks a player who votes a partner to divert the attention).

I'm VERY certain Foxcastle is scum. I don't expect people to believe me yet since the certainty comes from my unique position I've been put in and knowing the Fox narrative is wrong to begin with. But PLEASE REMEMBER THIS POST, COME BACK TO IT, AND READ IT if I die and become confirmed town.

This is why I'm voting Fox as long as there's momentum on him

[foodcoats]

Yeah, I assume Food is just doing brainbomb's Mafia QT for him.

The Knowledge power is pretty much useless unless a PR dies (like a detective) and you want to clearly communicate their scans.

Otherwise, useless. So at best Food was fishing for a tadpole, since that power is vaguely useful for Town, and a bit better for Mafia if we trust the PR. Of course, we do not trust Food, soooooo.

You wanna claim Food? Or divest?

Why would I have been fishing for a tadpole?

Because you wanted to be Mafia? Idk, why does anyone?

I was half asleep when I wrote that. Not a completely logical post but it had some good points.

What's your answer?

You think that anyone who drew the Cleric of Knowledge power and Town would decide that their power was more useful to the Mafia, and therefore would want to be Mafia, and would attempt to induce the Mafia to tadpole them by making posts that suggest they are such a PR?

I don’t think that is a good point, I think that is extremely tunnelled and conspiratorial thinking. It misses the fact that the Cleric of Knowledge can share the unbiased and largely up to date opinions of townclears who can still read the game, and also bring back claims and information that are lost due to death, for example if someone is janitored or if a cop dies without sharing their scans. Those seem to be abilities that are beneficial to town, which seems to undermine the premise of your argument - even if we don’t consider whether someone would necessarily want to be mafia just because they get a power that is more appropriate for scum (e.g. the Arcane Trickster).

Please clarify if I understand your argument correctly.

[sweetandcool]

##CALL GM

Can you explain Arcane Trickster? What is a random flip?

Struggling to see how this is useful as either alignment, except possibly if Mafia wants to kill a teammate and hide it (of course, it's not your job to point out strategy).

So you think the scum team is Necromancer, Battle master, and Arcane trickster? And you think the BM AND Vig are town, and they both used they’re very lethal abilities on D2 where we were just starting to figure things out?

Hold up, the vibes I got earlier is that you soft claimed vig. You should have shot me earlier if this is the case, (maybe I’m reading too much into it) I think your goose is cooked and this is more WIFOM

soft claimed vig? I would never shoot obvTown damo.

What are you on? I'm asked a question about that role because it was puzzling to me. When did I say Mafia had it?

##VOTE yoyoyono

[Bonatogether]

#travle #544 +0 (Perfect)

https://travle.earth

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

##VOTE FOOD

really busy but vca says he was saved yesterday

[sweetandcool]

Sweetandcool is voting for Foxcastle because "he's widely scumread".

Sweetandcool apparently scumreads JustWill, but apparently doesn't want to vote for him.

This is becoming highly suspicious.

Jamiet cannot understand nuance.

[sweetandcool]

@Everyone else:

Did you know that the Mafia Team started out as 3 PRs and 2 Goons?

Yes

[Vecna]

I do. I believe the mafia Battle Master would have been used on day 1, given how many townies were up for grabs at T-30mins d1. Fluminator is the only unknown in the at-risk group for d1, and it wouldn’t have been difficult for mafia to manipulate the wagons to keep him out of second if he is mafia.

And I definitely don’t think they would use it to secure a double kill on lfischl and D&W. True, it would be two town kills, which is the goal. But it was already clear that both would be viable miskill targets. If they didn’t fire it off day 1, they obviously want to be somewhat discerning in who they hit. In that case they wouldn’t try to get lfischl.

Meanwhile, a town Battle Master would be pretty eager to flip an inactive like lfischl on a day where D&W looked to be a runaway kill.

The current baseline random chance for BM to be town is 57%. The evidence, to me, is more suggestive than random that BM is town. So I’m pretty confident that BM is town, my analysis holds, and we should kill Fox today.

maybe the prioritization of stuff changed. dont forget balki replaced in n1, under new management n all that.

if flum was their ruler, theres no way they put him at risk d1

That’s fair, but even accepting that Fluminator is mafia and they were too risk-averse to put Fluminator at risk, their targeting of lfischl d2 doesn’t make a lot of sense. I say that knowing he’s town, but from your POV there’s also the chance that lfischl is mafia, which would make even less sense.

Again, I don’t think this makes it 100% certain, reasonable doubt remains and all that. But I think the evidence at least favors town BM hypothesis, and town BM hypothesis is also inherently favored based on current role flips (57% likelihood ignoring all data and looking only at random chance). It’s good enough for me, but I understand if it isn’t good enough for everyone else

your argument also ignores the fact that d1 they woukdve harvested damo or hb as extra kill. its not just about the numbers. keeping people around that can waste more town daykills is also an important argument

[Vecna]

anyways, ill cede that its weird not to wait to the 30 minute mark at d2 as scum, and after minute 37 balki was up there woth 3 votes after tempting people to vote him.

[Vecna]

##VOTE FOOD

really busy but vca says he was saved yesterday

lmao wtf?

he was saved?????

he was a flash wagon that started 3 minutes before eod. it just failed to get as high as flavius.

what a trash post

[Foxcastle]

These 24 hour phases are hard on top of a huge game, and with my travel and family commitments over the last several days, there are large portions of the thread I've skimmed, and a couple dozen pages I just skipped. I'm now juggling game with work. I've probably also spent too much time defending myself rather than scumhunting. So overall, I feel like I'm barely keeping my head above water here.

So I'm going to shoot Flum now and see what happens. Better now, than trying to claim when I'm a wagon at 30 min out when there's no time. (Not that PR claims mean anything about alignment in this setup.) If he's scum, great. If he's not, well, I'll have earned LVP (and presumably the daykill), and that'll be that. Either way, it's better than limping along like I'm doing now.

The order is in.

(And I have work meetings now, so it'll be a bit before I'm back.)