M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[worcej]

Can someone share the link to the bot that lets you filter out specific peoples posts, and also VCA stuff? I have some time to see if I can figure some stuff out without resulting to rating the vibes.

Just click the player name on the statistics area of the page

[Col7by]

Oh. Did you ask this a while ago too? I think I remember reading someone asking about it while catching up at some point and I figured someone else would have answered it.

Yea all good. I guess last one is VCA. I’m guessing it’s just what the thread says around the time?

"Vote Count Analysis"

None of the terms are unique to this website. To be honest, I never remember what they stand for, so I always just google it and the MafiaScum wiki always shows up.

Lovely thank you

[aarodactyl]

Can someone share the link to the bot that lets you filter out specific peoples posts, and also VCA stuff? I have some time to see if I can figure some stuff out without resulting to rating the vibes.

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/front_page

[worcej]

Bunny if you’re looking for a player that seems to be the newbie considering all options and being nice without providing too much I could see aaro being that. No offense aaro we have not crossed paths yet but seeing yoyo say something about us I want to look into both of you more to see what there is to it if anything

Only issue is aaro isn’t a newbie and I think Bunny and him are friends irl or something.

[BunnyGo]

Expand.

I for one would be willing to claim my use of roles as town, except if I was vig when a shot is still available. But the fact the shot didn’t come yesterday has me concerned it’s a scum vig.

Even in a setup like this, where the role isn’t alignment indicative, I think claiming the use after the fact is pro-town. It gives information on the game for us to parse the situation.

I expect the janitor was town and either crumbed the result or ghug was town so they didn’t need to. I think it was a stupid time for scum to attack town!ghug (and if scum wanted to janitor scum!ghug…well…I guess we’ll let them)


Vig is also obv town. Holding second shot. Using first shot on damo. These are not scummy things to do.


D&W power was obv town (obv)


So just BM left…I’m not sure either way what it is. But it’s a yomi guessing game what would be better. I could see town claiming to break us out of this stupid funk. I could see them keeping quiet so they live longer.


I could see scum claiming BM while claiming to be town…what are we gonna DO if someone claims BM?! Huh?! You think this group won’t start an argument about “well…it’s not a clear so we gotta kill em to find out…” so yeah…town should STFU and let us find out.

I don’t agree with your opinions here but don’t think you’re totally wrong with the comments about stfu the logic if that helps.

I’ve just made my opinions at this point and am trying to focus on the players now. Mechanics will sort themselves out and there is enough evidence of player intent now to focus on that.

Agreed. I’m more concerned that aaro is ONLY talking about mechs and his name.

[BunnyGo]

Bunny if you’re looking for a player that seems to be the newbie considering all options and being nice without providing too much I could see aaro being that. No offense aaro we have not crossed paths yet but seeing yoyo say something about us I want to look into both of you more to see what there is to it if anything

Only issue is aaro isn’t a newbie and I think Bunny and him are friends irl or something.

Aaro is my cousin

[Col7by]

Bunny if you’re looking for a player that seems to be the newbie considering all options and being nice without providing too much I could see aaro being that. No offense aaro we have not crossed paths yet but seeing yoyo say something about us I want to look into both of you more to see what there is to it if anything

Only issue is aaro isn’t a newbie and I think Bunny and him are friends irl or something.

Oh I thought that’s why yoyo was referring just us that they were on one of their first games. Maybe scratch that then

[Col7by]

Bunny if you’re looking for a player that seems to be the newbie considering all options and being nice without providing too much I could see aaro being that. No offense aaro we have not crossed paths yet but seeing yoyo say something about us I want to look into both of you more to see what there is to it if anything

Only issue is aaro isn’t a newbie and I think Bunny and him are friends irl or something.

Aaro is my cousin

Ah perfect so you should get a perfect read on them then

[BunnyGo]

Only issue is aaro isn’t a newbie and I think Bunny and him are friends irl or something.

Aaro is my cousin

Ah perfect so you should get a perfect read on them then

Incorrect

[Foxcastle]

What is tidily?

I accept all criticism for anything post Friday morning, but will venomously OMGUS you for coming at me for the first phases

It all just looks too neat. I think townies are occasionally messy and make mistakes and sometimes throw out ill-advised ideas. And I recall you being pretty together in general (i.e., your meta), but this seems too together. Very middle of the herd, very "safe" votes that are going to be hard to pick apart or incorporate into a larger theory of the scum team. I also recall a game where we were down to the last few (maybe the endgame?) and you and Damo both looked so pristine, and IIRC, you were scum. Really, the best thing you've done, as far as I'm concerned, is to look opportunistic voting for me.

Fair, but I would only point to the fact the votes so far have been D1 (chaos), D2 (Only 2 options), and now D3 (where I voted flav because I towned food)

I am curious how you consider the “rectangle” votes as a safe vote (when I went for yoyo). Explain more?

I'm not sure what you're saying about the different days. I don't think D1 was more chaotic than usual and you didn't really engage with D2 EOD. Maybe "safe" is the wrong word and we're talking past each other. My point is, there's a space where anodyne townies overlap with scum who want to look like anodyne townies, and the main reason to look there is that scum have an incentive to be there.

I don't actually know what the rectangle method is, despite trying to find an explanation in the thread. Maybe I missed it.

[brainbomb]

A heads up:

If a player dies and chooses to not go to the graveyard, that person is not eligible to be raised from the dead.

if someone attempts to raise a person who is not in the graveyard, the action will fail but the player will be allowed to try again the next phase, and will not lose their action.

[Bonatogether]

PSYCH! not a squiggspost, but instead something else.

d3 vca

somewhat complicated by that i was gone for a big chunk of the day except the very end

major wagons are greater than 3 votes, or ones i think are interesting

i'm not entirely sure how to work around the shorter day, because it does not linearly translate either to the broad phases of a day being cut in half, or to the day operating as the second half of a normal day only. there is a lot less discussion time, and i posit a lot higher base volatility as a result of that

first major wagon is on the yoyo. yoyo was in my first game and got subbed or died or something and idr him very well from it. fun fact! this wagon is just a silly goofy wagon because it gets no momentum. its three voters are demon (who drops a #stabthestandins vote before disappearing until eod), flav (accuses yoyo of being the lurker mafia in his theory of preassigned roles), and sweet, who later comments that yoyo has a 'good chance to be mafia'. deep analysis here all. really love it

the second major wagon is on food. it peaks at four votes. gorg is first, and doesn't list a reason on this day. too lazy to check n2. ezio is second, and says its because he sees no solving desire. true! jamie agrees, and places a vote. sweet follows. he says he posted reasons but i couldn't be fucked to find them. this wagon disippates for different wagons, but all of these players that are online at eod (ie, that aren't jamie or gorg), return to food. believe this is a strong reason to townread ezio especially, and to a lesser extent sweet, obviously conditional on how much you'd think they'd bus.

bunny gets to 3 votes for a brief period but it's like 20 seconds so i don't care.

flumigator becomes a wagon for the first time, and peaks at 4 votes from the period T-15:25 to T-4:42 - a giant expanse of time. one has to wonder why there was such a long time with little movement in the top wagon, and i don't have a specially good answer to that. flum's 4 (really 6, gorg is shot midway through this period, and dousing moves away quickly but is important to the wagon development) voters go as follows: fox, for d2 vca reasons (never moves), dousing, who responds to the anti-flum push from fox, sweet the sheeple, following dousing, aaro, who has a super bizarre sequence that i think merits quoting in full:

Anyways. From this read up:

-bunny has town vibes
-flum thinking bunny has scum vibes makes me think flum has town vibes
<snip>

Forgot to add a vote to that. ##vote flum. Seems weirdly attached to bunny who is very town-ish this game

guys. this is directly contradictory. i wouldn't be surprised if someone called this out but i don't remember if so (i only somewhat read much of this expanse of time). at any rate, he never address it. aaro also never moves his vote. gorg sheeps fox, pushing the wagon up to 4. gorg gets shot, and then jamie votes flumigator for his push on bongo. jamie and sweet both jump off, leaving this at 2 votes. neither will return at eod. my take on this phase of the flum wagon is that because it all boils down to quoting fox or making the same argument as him, which i interpret as there being at least some scum hiding in this. among this group of 6 (fox, dousing, sweet, aaro, gorg, jamie), i interpret aaro and sweet as looking the worst by this metric, because they're the most obvious copycats of fox - especially aaro. jamie has had a longstanding scumread on flum so less likely he's scum based on this.

yoyo temporarily becomes a major wagon again but still doesn't have momentum. also 2/3 of the voters are the same.

gorg becomes a 3 vote wagon before getting mogged by scum. many people have asked this question but i'm still thinking it over - why then? hard to say. someone mentioned the possibility of eden subbing in and hipfiring, which is firmly in character. ghug's last post was 13 hours before eod, and he gets shot at T-5:04, so there wasn't any new information from ghug that could have prompted it. perhaps they found pr crumbs? perhaps they just wanted to shitstir? in any case, there's no way to definitely read something into it, so i won't try to, except that it does increase eden's scum percentage, and that if he is the janitor, he won't shut up about it postgame.

yoyo's zombie wagon lumbers on. sigh. yawn!

bongo's wagon gets up to 3 votes again. to me, the most core interesting thing about this wagon is that colby is voting bongo for the longest time. i presume colby has some insight into bongo that's different from the insight we gain from interacting on a forum, so i'd like to hear what his psychological take on the bungus is.

i think eod starts at T-1:00

fox becomes the first real eod wagon. this wagon peaks early, but has a very long taper off, remaining above 3 votes up until T-0:02. This wagon peaks at 5, so most of the people on it stay on for a long ride. There are 6 people who vote fox at some point during eod. In order: eden (because of d2 vca), flav (because of a deep feeling of betrayal over there being no spreadsheet), sweet (hard to determine why, but he says the best case for scum!fox is the balki thunderdome), worchesjeg (indulging sweet?), and flumigator (for avoiding voting balki, and for wagoning dip). flav flips off to go me, and then bongo votes for fox (because he townreads me, the goat, just as my wagon was peaking). my take on this wagon is that eden isn't connected to anything early game and so this is just the start of him getting nailed down positions, and that the rest of the people here can be subdivided into d2 vca voters (eden kinda, flum, sweet), and the rando voters (flav, worcej, bongo). i'd figure that the rando voters are less likely scum than the vca voters, and that among the vca voters, sweet has the most obviously incoherent explanation.

i'm the second real eod wagon, with much less longevity than the fox wagon. my wagon goes from nothing to peak in just over 30 minutes, and from peak to non-major in the space of less than 10 minutes (not counting will's joke vote). momentum percolates for a wagon on me for a long while, but it is finally precipitated when food votes for me, who has been trying to get a wagon on me for a long time. his reasons are 'not pissing me off', 'vibes', and 'wasn't perfectly disciplined during eod2'. convincing? no, conniving. squiggs is the actual first voter because i'm not 'opiniated'. dousing sheeps food, and ezio votes me to save fox. flav votes me for d2 vca, and also sheeping food. i don't get another vote except a joke vote from will, which i'm not counting. the wagon doesn't get much momentum, and indeed, people start voting against it (see bongo in para above). curiously, every voter on this wagon (dousing, ezio, squiggs) except food and flav ends on food. i would point to that as the core group here, and i would strongly suspect one but not two are scum. my opinion on this is that it's squiggs, but that's not a necessary part of this analysis.

the first eod set is me vs fox, at an even 5 to 5 between T-0:22 and T-0:18, with 9 voters off those two. The flav wagon takes off during that time, and develops almost entirely from those 9. It also takes evenly from the bona and fox wagons until T-0:09, which is curious.

flav had had percolating mistrust developing for a while, which is precipitated by colby (who had sometimes expressed that flav was 'scummy'), with me rapidly following (for shutting down fox discussion). will joins as fox protection, and sweet joins a post later as bona protection. dousing hops on for 'info'. this is all in the span of like a page. flav votes fox for self-preservation. bongo votes flav to get off fox? idk. ezio also hops on. this is the peak of the flav wagon, as many of these people will go to food later.

the flum wagon reappears? why? idk. flum had been sitting at 2 votes (aaro and fox), with flav and food joining. food joining this wagon which is rapidly gaining momentum i feel is opportunistic and bad. demon makes his second post of the day by voting flum. who knows why. dousing flips on from flav but then immediately flips back. this puts flum up 4 votes to a total of 6 at T-0:05. only a single one of these voters (dousing) comes from flav. this indicates that it is primarily an anti-flav wagon, and given that flav was town, i would feel somewhat ok townreading people on this, except that of the four voters, flav died, food was opportunistic, demon was awol and bizarre, and dousing left after less 20 seconds, so they're all actually edge cases that that insight doesn't apply to. i think this wagon never had a chance of being the kill despite being up 6-4 only a few minutes before eod.

flav goes back up to 6, because dousing and demon (in his third post and vote of the phase) flip to him, down from a peak of 7 because ezio is starting a food flashwagon. that flashwagon starts at T-0:05. ezio says that he hates all the wagons (despite having been on me and flav in the past hour?). squiggs follows because the wagon on me is dead, with will and sweet sheeping squiggs. wagons are 5-4-4 at this point in time. worcej shows up to vote for flav, putting flav up to 6. eden shows up and moves off fox to put food up to 5. yoyo ties the vote. dousing and eden both try to untie, but just re-tie it. only food showing up to untie by voting flav saves town from a tie. i feel these last 10 minutes are marked by a ton of uncertainty about what is happening, so that makes it somewhat hard to figure out what's going on.

i think the counterwagons that were pushed as alternatives to flav are almost certainly town-driven. the flum wagon is entirely driven by special circumstance voters, so i don't draw any conclusions there. the food wagon, however, has ezio, squiggs, will, sweet, yoyo, all looking better. dousing looks good for the tie-break attempt onto food, and eden looks correspondingly worse.

tl;dr for the weak and illiterate:
i really like ezio here. sweet isn't too bad either.
assuming one of (dousing, ezio, squiggs) is scum. i vote squiggs but not set on that.
food's flum vote sucks and is probably scym
aaro's flum vote sucks too and is also probably not town
the non-flav wagons were probably town-driven, which implies that scum was either more on flav or letting town flame itself out.
ezio, squiggs, will, sweet, yoyo all look somewhat better, with those earlier (ezio) and later (yoyo) the best.
dousing good for the flip, eden worse.
question for @colby: what is your psychological insight on bongo?

[Jamiet99uk]

Absolutely nasty work

So many acronyms I just learned WIFOM yesterday lol (wife in front of me thanks Jamie I think you told me?)

So close.

OMGUS = Oh My God, Ur Scum. Basically, player B accuses player A of being mafia because player A accused player B of being mafia.

It's actually Oh My God, U Suck.

But the overall explanation is right.

[Yoyoyozo]

I think I’m just overthinking though.

I’m under thinking that. Walk me through it. As stupidly as you can make it.

WITCH!

[Yoyoyozo]

Anyone find it strange that Balki never mentioned or replied to worcej?

[Yoyoyozo]

Anyone find it strange that Balki never mentioned or replied to worcej?

Loopty loop and pull, and your shoes are looking cool

[worcej]

It all just looks too neat. I think townies are occasionally messy and make mistakes and sometimes throw out ill-advised ideas. And I recall you being pretty together in general (i.e., your meta), but this seems too together. Very middle of the herd, very "safe" votes that are going to be hard to pick apart or incorporate into a larger theory of the scum team. I also recall a game where we were down to the last few (maybe the endgame?) and you and Damo both looked so pristine, and IIRC, you were scum. Really, the best thing you've done, as far as I'm concerned, is to look opportunistic voting for me.

Fair, but I would only point to the fact the votes so far have been D1 (chaos), D2 (Only 2 options), and now D3 (where I voted flav because I towned food)

I am curious how you consider the “rectangle” votes as a safe vote (when I went for yoyo). Explain more?

I'm not sure what you're saying about the different days. I don't think D1 was more chaotic than usual and you didn't really engage with D2 EOD. Maybe "safe" is the wrong word and we're talking past each other. My point is, there's a space where anodyne townies overlap with scum who want to look like anodyne townies, and the main reason to look there is that scum have an incentive to be there.

I don't actually know what the rectangle method is, despite trying to find an explanation in the thread. Maybe I missed it.

I was referring to the 4 way tie for much of D3.

[worcej]

Anyone find it strange that Balki never mentioned or replied to worcej?

Not particularly. He died D2 when I was not around much.

I haven't had conversations with a few players over the course of this game.

[Fluminator]

Day 1:
All 4 wagons were town. I was wagoned right before then so I'd count myself as a 5th wagon so town was just completely clueless that day. This makes VCA a little tricky other than scum did not care what happened.

This makes the people who pushed for info flips on all of day 1 wagons and using that as a crutch very suspicious in my eyes and something to look for. Because it is true that is often a logically good thing to do and it's such a perfect excuse to push for miskills without getting much flak that scum had to do it.

Day 2:
The Battlemaster day. It has to be used before 30 minutes which means if it was a mafia power, it was used before the duel.

Ideal use of it as a mafia power, is to use it when it looks pretty clear mafia is being daykilled so they can kill an extra townie with a counterwagon. It was such a perfect situation for mafia d2 getting a PR that I did assume it was a mafia PR usage (until I saw the 30 minute time limit and couldn't have known) It is not ideal to use it to get 2 town wagon/counterwagon killed as that gives off so much info. On early days as the more flips at the beginning, the more info the town has to work with which is bad for maf. This is a power mafia would save to use for situations similar to what happened day 2.

On the other hand, it makes sense for town to use it early to speed up the flips so we have more info earlier without giving mafia as many nightkills. Honestly, the best case against it not being a town usage is that it didn't happen day 1, but day 2 is still pretty close to use it.

It's not a certainty it was a town usage, but the evidence really points to it being town, especially since Balki's flailing looked to be taking any opportunity to convince town to flip their vote on Dip or do a Nokill.

This makes people assuming it's a scum battlemanster to fit their narrative to push a kill very suspicious. Especially to base their whole argument on an unproven assumption that is less likely to be true.

Day 3:
This day was very F-name phobic. I haven't read this one as closely yet, but foodcoats does look reasonably bad tbh since it did feel like the anxiety was a lot higher than in day 1 when there were no scum up for kill. But also Fox was the dominant wagon not long before deadline, so he looks about equally bad as food based on wagon analysis.

So if we look at players, Fox is basically guilty of all of this.
He has declared an assumption to be true, that there was a scum battlemaster that wanted to use it day 1, but couldn't because there was a scum wagoned that day. He's been using this to push for daykills. It's such a crafted scenario and one he says was kind of a random thing he's sticking to. That's literally how scum work, pick a player and look for evidence after.

Fox also is pushing the scum battlemaster narrative which conveniently would make EOD2 mainly irrelevant. Because if it's a town battlemaster, and scum didn't know, Fox looks VERY scummy doing everything he could to avoid voting Balki and pushing Dip (for no reasons given outside being a day 1 wagon needing to be cleared up?)

I'm still not quite over that he pushed me out of nowhere immediately after I voted Bunny. I can agree the case on Bunny might not be the best, but it felt like a chainsaw (where a scum player attacks a player who votes a partner to divert the attention).

I'm VERY certain Foxcastle is scum. I don't expect people to believe me yet since the certainty comes from my unique position I've been put in and knowing the Fox narrative is wrong to begin with. But PLEASE REMEMBER THIS POST, COME BACK TO IT, AND READ IT if I die and become confirmed town.

[Col7by]

PSYCH! not a squiggspost, but instead something else.

d3 vca

somewhat complicated by that i was gone for a big chunk of the day except the very end

major wagons are greater than 3 votes, or ones i think are interesting

i'm not entirely sure how to work around the shorter day, because it does not linearly translate either to the broad phases of a day being cut in half, or to the day operating as the second half of a normal day only. there is a lot less discussion time, and i posit a lot higher base volatility as a result of that

first major wagon is on the yoyo. yoyo was in my first game and got subbed or died or something and idr him very well from it. fun fact! this wagon is just a silly goofy wagon because it gets no momentum. its three voters are demon (who drops a #stabthestandins vote before disappearing until eod), flav (accuses yoyo of being the lurker mafia in his theory of preassigned roles), and sweet, who later comments that yoyo has a 'good chance to be mafia'. deep analysis here all. really love it

the second major wagon is on food. it peaks at four votes. gorg is first, and doesn't list a reason on this day. too lazy to check n2. ezio is second, and says its because he sees no solving desire. true! jamie agrees, and places a vote. sweet follows. he says he posted reasons but i couldn't be fucked to find them. this wagon disippates for different wagons, but all of these players that are online at eod (ie, that aren't jamie or gorg), return to food. believe this is a strong reason to townread ezio especially, and to a lesser extent sweet, obviously conditional on how much you'd think they'd bus.

bunny gets to 3 votes for a brief period but it's like 20 seconds so i don't care.

flumigator becomes a wagon for the first time, and peaks at 4 votes from the period T-15:25 to T-4:42 - a giant expanse of time. one has to wonder why there was such a long time with little movement in the top wagon, and i don't have a specially good answer to that. flum's 4 (really 6, gorg is shot midway through this period, and dousing moves away quickly but is important to the wagon development) voters go as follows: fox, for d2 vca reasons (never moves), dousing, who responds to the anti-flum push from fox, sweet the sheeple, following dousing, aaro, who has a super bizarre sequence that i think merits quoting in full:

Anyways. From this read up:

-bunny has town vibes
-flum thinking bunny has scum vibes makes me think flum has town vibes
<snip>

Forgot to add a vote to that. ##vote flum. Seems weirdly attached to bunny who is very town-ish this game

guys. this is directly contradictory. i wouldn't be surprised if someone called this out but i don't remember if so (i only somewhat read much of this expanse of time). at any rate, he never address it. aaro also never moves his vote. gorg sheeps fox, pushing the wagon up to 4. gorg gets shot, and then jamie votes flumigator for his push on bongo. jamie and sweet both jump off, leaving this at 2 votes. neither will return at eod. my take on this phase of the flum wagon is that because it all boils down to quoting fox or making the same argument as him, which i interpret as there being at least some scum hiding in this. among this group of 6 (fox, dousing, sweet, aaro, gorg, jamie), i interpret aaro and sweet as looking the worst by this metric, because they're the most obvious copycats of fox - especially aaro. jamie has had a longstanding scumread on flum so less likely he's scum based on this.

yoyo temporarily becomes a major wagon again but still doesn't have momentum. also 2/3 of the voters are the same.

gorg becomes a 3 vote wagon before getting mogged by scum. many people have asked this question but i'm still thinking it over - why then? hard to say. someone mentioned the possibility of eden subbing in and hipfiring, which is firmly in character. ghug's last post was 13 hours before eod, and he gets shot at T-5:04, so there wasn't any new information from ghug that could have prompted it. perhaps they found pr crumbs? perhaps they just wanted to shitstir? in any case, there's no way to definitely read something into it, so i won't try to, except that it does increase eden's scum percentage, and that if he is the janitor, he won't shut up about it postgame.

yoyo's zombie wagon lumbers on. sigh. yawn!

bongo's wagon gets up to 3 votes again. to me, the most core interesting thing about this wagon is that colby is voting bongo for the longest time. i presume colby has some insight into bongo that's different from the insight we gain from interacting on a forum, so i'd like to hear what his psychological take on the bungus is.

i think eod starts at T-1:00

fox becomes the first real eod wagon. this wagon peaks early, but has a very long taper off, remaining above 3 votes up until T-0:02. This wagon peaks at 5, so most of the people on it stay on for a long ride. There are 6 people who vote fox at some point during eod. In order: eden (because of d2 vca), flav (because of a deep feeling of betrayal over there being no spreadsheet), sweet (hard to determine why, but he says the best case for scum!fox is the balki thunderdome), worchesjeg (indulging sweet?), and flumigator (for avoiding voting balki, and for wagoning dip). flav flips off to go me, and then bongo votes for fox (because he townreads me, the goat, just as my wagon was peaking). my take on this wagon is that eden isn't connected to anything early game and so this is just the start of him getting nailed down positions, and that the rest of the people here can be subdivided into d2 vca voters (eden kinda, flum, sweet), and the rando voters (flav, worcej, bongo). i'd figure that the rando voters are less likely scum than the vca voters, and that among the vca voters, sweet has the most obviously incoherent explanation.

i'm the second real eod wagon, with much less longevity than the fox wagon. my wagon goes from nothing to peak in just over 30 minutes, and from peak to non-major in the space of less than 10 minutes (not counting will's joke vote). momentum percolates for a wagon on me for a long while, but it is finally precipitated when food votes for me, who has been trying to get a wagon on me for a long time. his reasons are 'not pissing me off', 'vibes', and 'wasn't perfectly disciplined during eod2'. convincing? no, conniving. squiggs is the actual first voter because i'm not 'opiniated'. dousing sheeps food, and ezio votes me to save fox. flav votes me for d2 vca, and also sheeping food. i don't get another vote except a joke vote from will, which i'm not counting. the wagon doesn't get much momentum, and indeed, people start voting against it (see bongo in para above). curiously, every voter on this wagon (dousing, ezio, squiggs) except food and flav ends on food. i would point to that as the core group here, and i would strongly suspect one but not two are scum. my opinion on this is that it's squiggs, but that's not a necessary part of this analysis.

the first eod set is me vs fox, at an even 5 to 5 between T-0:22 and T-0:18, with 9 voters off those two. The flav wagon takes off during that time, and develops almost entirely from those 9. It also takes evenly from the bona and fox wagons until T-0:09, which is curious.

flav had had percolating mistrust developing for a while, which is precipitated by colby (who had sometimes expressed that flav was 'scummy'), with me rapidly following (for shutting down fox discussion). will joins as fox protection, and sweet joins a post later as bona protection. dousing hops on for 'info'. this is all in the span of like a page. flav votes fox for self-preservation. bongo votes flav to get off fox? idk. ezio also hops on. this is the peak of the flav wagon, as many of these people will go to food later.

the flum wagon reappears? why? idk. flum had been sitting at 2 votes (aaro and fox), with flav and food joining. food joining this wagon which is rapidly gaining momentum i feel is opportunistic and bad. demon makes his second post of the day by voting flum. who knows why. dousing flips on from flav but then immediately flips back. this puts flum up 4 votes to a total of 6 at T-0:05. only a single one of these voters (dousing) comes from flav. this indicates that it is primarily an anti-flav wagon, and given that flav was town, i would feel somewhat ok townreading people on this, except that of the four voters, flav died, food was opportunistic, demon was awol and bizarre, and dousing left after less 20 seconds, so they're all actually edge cases that that insight doesn't apply to. i think this wagon never had a chance of being the kill despite being up 6-4 only a few minutes before eod.

flav goes back up to 6, because dousing and demon (in his third post and vote of the phase) flip to him, down from a peak of 7 because ezio is starting a food flashwagon. that flashwagon starts at T-0:05. ezio says that he hates all the wagons (despite having been on me and flav in the past hour?). squiggs follows because the wagon on me is dead, with will and sweet sheeping squiggs. wagons are 5-4-4 at this point in time. worcej shows up to vote for flav, putting flav up to 6. eden shows up and moves off fox to put food up to 5. yoyo ties the vote. dousing and eden both try to untie, but just re-tie it. only food showing up to untie by voting flav saves town from a tie. i feel these last 10 minutes are marked by a ton of uncertainty about what is happening, so that makes it somewhat hard to figure out what's going on.

i think the counterwagons that were pushed as alternatives to flav are almost certainly town-driven. the flum wagon is entirely driven by special circumstance voters, so i don't draw any conclusions there. the food wagon, however, has ezio, squiggs, will, sweet, yoyo, all looking better. dousing looks good for the tie-break attempt onto food, and eden looks correspondingly worse.

tl;dr for the weak and illiterate:
i really like ezio here. sweet isn't too bad either.
assuming one of (dousing, ezio, squiggs) is scum. i vote squiggs but not set on that.
food's flum vote sucks and is probably scym
aaro's flum vote sucks too and is also probably not town
the non-flav wagons were probably town-driven, which implies that scum was either more on flav or letting town flame itself out.
ezio, squiggs, will, sweet, yoyo all look somewhat better, with those earlier (ezio) and later (yoyo) the best.
dousing good for the flip, eden worse.
question for @colby: what is your psychological insight on bongo?

First off is bongo bunny. Second I agree with your food aaro logic. I think one of them had a vote on flum in case they flip to show they were on a scum not knowing it would gain momentum possibly get them out (is flum is scum I don’t see another way this works unless the think flum isn’t realistic and want to stay out of it?)