M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[BunnyGo]

I think I’m just overthinking though.

I’m under thinking that. Walk me through it. As stupidly as you can make it.

[Col7by]

Ok. What did you learn from the Flav vote?

I need to do a deeper dive but I think that bona was for sure tunneling at least. Don’t love the last minute flipping from you, will and I think someone else but need to read the votes again. I think it was good to get another wagon in play but it got SO much traction SO quick that I think some scum had to have hopped on and to look there first. Some could be hiding on Fox but I think it’s start with the flav ones

Why do you think I voted and jumped around like I did?

My guess is either to start a train on me because you thought I was scum and flav was town but couldn’t pull it off
Wanted to look good by being on the majority (would be sloppy and doesn’t make much sense since flav is town)
Panicked because you’re scum and one of the other wagons that were close are scum.

Im leaning towards option one based on your analysis of me this game

[worcej]

I actually have no real qualms with how Ezio originally gets on Balki (a “vote Balki I guess?” much as I voted Dip I guess?) but what’s interesting is he states this:

##vote NoKill.

We're not killing the claimed town PR, and we shouldn't kill someone I townread.

Ezio NEVER stated he townread KOTP or Balki until this moment and tries to make a No Kill happen. Balki is actually entirely absent from Ezio’s iso until the duel, except for him agreeing on something related to the vig and ghug. It’s interesting that Ezio would claim he townreads Balki and try to make a No Kill here. I never ever think of No Killing but I’m bad at this game so, grain of salt.

Is it weird that I think Ezio voting no kill there was NAI simply due to his meta?

[Col7by]

Can someone explain OMGUS to me plz?

Oh. Did you ask this a while ago too? I think I remember reading someone asking about it while catching up at some point and I figured someone else would have answered it.

##vote ghug

Oh My God U Suck

Yea all good. I guess last one is VCA. I’m guessing it’s just what the thread says around the time?

[Col7by]

Can someone explain OMGUS to me plz?

Oh. Did you ask this a while ago too? I think I remember reading someone asking about it while catching up at some point and I figured someone else would have answered it.

Oh My God U Suck

Yea all good. I guess last one is VCA. I’m guessing it’s just what the thread says around the time?

Actually and NAI too

[BunnyGo]

Ok. Thoughts on what has happened and current state of game.


Day 1 was a zoo. Hard to follow. Hard to keep up. Lots of stuff. And we ended TvTvTvT as top 4 wagons. We had other opportunities before. But that’s what it was.

So I think scum were probably fairly still after those lead wagons settled out. Let the town run around and look like they’re saving someone. But hard to tell that apart from not around.


Day 2 was another crazy day. Vig hit on town. The fact it was a wagon from day 1 and a wagon day 2 suggests vig is town trying to clear things up. I hope they eliminate Eden tomorrow.

The unknown BM is confusing for VCA, the play by D&W was interesting.


Lots of arguments, yelling, analysis about the arguments, it’s only just recently become less of a zoo.


The necromancer day 3 I’ll stand by that we should assume ghug was town for mech reasons unless told otherwise, but the necromancer should be in no rush to tell us if he was scum. I believe it was a town shot either way.

So that leaves AT LEAST 2 scum powers left (if my view is correct). I expect one of them is a vote manipulation power (immune to a day or double vote for a day).


As for reads:

I think sweet started town; I’m worried he accepts the tadpole.

I think squigs started town and was not even offered the tadpole because he wouldn’t accept.

I think worcej is town. His frustration progressions and posts are solid town!worc

I think food is town. I see effort, and developments.

I think Flum is town; his push on me is too haphazard for scum!flum

I didn’t think Vecna was town until tonight. His posts improved a lot. I’m still worried, but N3 was an improvement.

I think Dousing is WAY TOO focused on himself. If he’s town, he’s not helping, and if he’s scum….this tracks.

I think Colby is smarter than he’s pretending. But this game has been a zoo…so maybe he just really is confused. @Colby: explore the bot.

I think Just is capable of changing his game play style, but this seems townier to me.

I like Mad’s posts tonight.

I like Bona’s attitude and energy. Seems towny. But he’s fooled me before.

I like demon’s energy. But I’m wondering where he went.

I think aaro is scum. I believe his outside things are going to distract him, but his game so far seems like what I expect scum!aaro to do.

So…my POE is Jamie, aaro, eden, yo-yo, Dousin, Colby.

Humbly request vig shoots in there. Preferably Eden. Or Yoyo.

Honestly, this post is really confusing to me. I'm the only person you explicitly say you think is scum. And then you have a 6 person POE where you don't even mention your reads on 3 of the players (eden, yoyo, and jamie). And then you say that you want vig to shoot Eden or Yoyo. It feels weird you'd mentioned them over me considering you didn't even include them in your reads list.

Am I just missing something? Are you just wanting to Flip the Fill-Ins?

Jamie is a total null. Except for his commitment to the bit with damo I remember nothing of him. This is bad.

Eden I’ve talked about before.

Yo-yo because he’s done nothing but say what fun this is. And he’s a sub.


You I actually have an active read on. They didn’t even rate mentioning.

Like ezio. He needs to do more. The fact that he only showed up to answer my questions seems scummy trying to not take heat for lurking. But I dunno. He doesn’t rate a vig shot. But should be voted if VCA looks bad too. I’ve done 0 VCA yet. Too early.

[BunnyGo]

Don’t you think the lack of any claims at this point almost exclusively make the actions from scum at this point?

Quite the opposite in fact

Why? You think a town BM is more likely to hold their claim?

Yup. Claimable role is worth something. And we’ll find out eventually.

[Yoyoyozo]

Someone’s gotta keep morale high around here…

[worcej]

I feel like there is 1 major factor that has town divided right now: half of us think the battlemaster was scum, and therefore D2 analysis is invalid (or outright flipped) after the duel.
The other half of us think the battlemaster was town, and therefore VCA after duel is a the most valuable information.
It's a tough one to solve, because even if the battlemaster claims we can't know if they're town or not.

Don’t you think the lack of any claims at this point almost exclusively make the actions from scum at this point?

I didn't previously. I think it's generally bad to claim as town PR, as the evidence will come clear when they flip. Furthermore, since many people are scumreading the slot, *I* would have been reluctant to claim it.
I'm more on the fence now. I think if BM claimed, I don't think Flavius ever get miskilled d3.

At this point, I do think the battlemaster should claim, and we can get our reads from whomever claims.

I take it you *do* think BM is scum because they haven't claimed yet?

I think scum’s 3 PRs are the janitor, the vig, and the BM at this point.

I think a town!vig had some obvious targets during D3 to give guidance in gamestate and have a more informed D3 kill, but it never came. Scum having the shot is likely as they can use it to play with miskill math still.

[BunnyGo]

Don’t you think the lack of any claims at this point almost exclusively make the actions from scum at this point?

Quite the opposite in fact

Expand.

I for one would be willing to claim my use of roles as town, except if I was vig when a shot is still available. But the fact the shot didn’t come yesterday has me concerned it’s a scum vig.

Even in a setup like this, where the role isn’t alignment indicative, I think claiming the use after the fact is pro-town. It gives information on the game for us to parse the situation.

I expect the janitor was town and either crumbed the result or ghug was town so they didn’t need to. I think it was a stupid time for scum to attack town!ghug (and if scum wanted to janitor scum!ghug…well…I guess we’ll let them)


Vig is also obv town. Holding second shot. Using first shot on damo. These are not scummy things to do.


D&W power was obv town (obv)


So just BM left…I’m not sure either way what it is. But it’s a yomi guessing game what would be better. I could see town claiming to break us out of this stupid funk. I could see them keeping quiet so they live longer.


I could see scum claiming BM while claiming to be town…what are we gonna DO if someone claims BM?! Huh?! You think this group won’t start an argument about “well…it’s not a clear so we gotta kill em to find out…” so yeah…town should STFU and let us find out.

[worcej]

I would add Worcej to my list of scumreads. His game is a little too tidily town for me to think it's natural.

What is tidily?

I accept all criticism for anything post Friday morning, but will venomously OMGUS you for coming at me for the first phases

It all just looks too neat. I think townies are occasionally messy and make mistakes and sometimes throw out ill-advised ideas. And I recall you being pretty together in general (i.e., your meta), but this seems too together. Very middle of the herd, very "safe" votes that are going to be hard to pick apart or incorporate into a larger theory of the scum team. I also recall a game where we were down to the last few (maybe the endgame?) and you and Damo both looked so pristine, and IIRC, you were scum. Really, the best thing you've done, as far as I'm concerned, is to look opportunistic voting for me.

Fair, but I would only point to the fact the votes so far have been D1 (chaos), D2 (Only 2 options), and now D3 (where I voted flav because I towned food)

I am curious how you consider the “rectangle” votes as a safe vote (when I went for yoyo). Explain more?

[aarodactyl]

@Food: I'm reading up on the thread and I just saw your post here: https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=410353#p410353
(not quoting because it's super long)

I think you're misunderstanding my case on Flum. It has nothing to do with VCA from D3. It's all about the VCA from D1. To rehash my argument (which I've made several times in this thread so far), 30 minutes out from EOD1, the wagons were HB v Flum v Damo v Flav. At this point, I'm pretty sure that BM is scum since they would have claimed by now. Additionally, I have no idea why scum BM wouldn't use their power on a TvTvTvT D1. As a result, flav flipping town makes flum look incredibly scummy to me.

Ah, that’s an interesting take. I did not understand that. Thank you! This definitely makes more sense.

Although I disagree that BM would claim. PRs really do not need to claim this early in the game.

I saw this post a couple minutes after you sent it. Since then I've been trying to think through all the pros and cons of how claiming town PR claiming impacts the game state, and it's way more complicated than I realized. The interaction between PR being either alignment is why I thought they should originally claim, but I think I'm wrong about that now. I'm not convinced that town shouldn't claim, but I no longer think it's obvious. I really wish we had longer day phases because there's so much to consider with the mechanics here and all the weird interactions.

[aarodactyl]

Absolutely nasty work

So many acronyms I just learned WIFOM yesterday lol (wife in front of me thanks Jamie I think you told me?)

So close.

OMGUS = Oh My God, Ur Scum. Basically, player B accuses player A of being mafia because player A accused player B of being mafia.

Google says you're wrong about what it stands for but the explanation is essentially correct.

[aarodactyl]

My instinct tells me Colby and Aero have opposing alignments.

This misspelling of my username is funny to me but also very understandable.

[BunnyGo]

Don’t you think the lack of any claims at this point almost exclusively make the actions from scum at this point?

I didn't previously. I think it's generally bad to claim as town PR, as the evidence will come clear when they flip. Furthermore, since many people are scumreading the slot, *I* would have been reluctant to claim it.
I'm more on the fence now. I think if BM claimed, I don't think Flavius ever get miskilled d3.

At this point, I do think the battlemaster should claim, and we can get our reads from whomever claims.

I take it you *do* think BM is scum because they haven't claimed yet?

I think scum’s 3 PRs are the janitor, the vig, and the BM at this point.

I think a town!vig had some obvious targets during D3 to give guidance in gamestate and have a more informed D3 kill, but it never came. Scum having the shot is likely as they can use it to play with miskill math still.

Whelp…we’ll find out.

If you’re right, then town still has 4 powers that may be quite useful. If you’re wrong, then scum still have quite a few powers and town have shot their wad.

[worcej]

Quite the opposite in fact

Expand.

I for one would be willing to claim my use of roles as town, except if I was vig when a shot is still available. But the fact the shot didn’t come yesterday has me concerned it’s a scum vig.

Even in a setup like this, where the role isn’t alignment indicative, I think claiming the use after the fact is pro-town. It gives information on the game for us to parse the situation.

I expect the janitor was town and either crumbed the result or ghug was town so they didn’t need to. I think it was a stupid time for scum to attack town!ghug (and if scum wanted to janitor scum!ghug…well…I guess we’ll let them)


Vig is also obv town. Holding second shot. Using first shot on damo. These are not scummy things to do.


D&W power was obv town (obv)


So just BM left…I’m not sure either way what it is. But it’s a yomi guessing game what would be better. I could see town claiming to break us out of this stupid funk. I could see them keeping quiet so they live longer.


I could see scum claiming BM while claiming to be town…what are we gonna DO if someone claims BM?! Huh?! You think this group won’t start an argument about “well…it’s not a clear so we gotta kill em to find out…” so yeah…town should STFU and let us find out.

I don’t agree with your opinions here but don’t think you’re totally wrong with the comments about stfu the logic if that helps.

I’ve just made my opinions at this point and am trying to focus on the players now. Mechanics will sort themselves out and there is enough evidence of player intent now to focus on that.

[Col7by]

Bunny if you’re looking for a player that seems to be the newbie considering all options and being nice without providing too much I could see aaro being that. No offense aaro we have not crossed paths yet but seeing yoyo say something about us I want to look into both of you more to see what there is to it if anything

[aarodactyl]

Can someone explain OMGUS to me plz?

Oh. Did you ask this a while ago too? I think I remember reading someone asking about it while catching up at some point and I figured someone else would have answered it.

Oh My God U Suck

Yea all good. I guess last one is VCA. I’m guessing it’s just what the thread says around the time?

"Vote Count Analysis"

None of the terms are unique to this website. To be honest, I never remember what they stand for, so I always just google it and the MafiaScum wiki always shows up.

[Yoyoyozo]

Can someone share the link to the bot that lets you filter out specific peoples posts, and also VCA stuff? I have some time to see if I can figure some stuff out without resulting to rating the vibes.

[worcej]

@Food: I'm reading up on the thread and I just saw your post here: https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=410353#p410353
(not quoting because it's super long)

I think you're misunderstanding my case on Flum. It has nothing to do with VCA from D3. It's all about the VCA from D1. To rehash my argument (which I've made several times in this thread so far), 30 minutes out from EOD1, the wagons were HB v Flum v Damo v Flav. At this point, I'm pretty sure that BM is scum since they would have claimed by now. Additionally, I have no idea why scum BM wouldn't use their power on a TvTvTvT D1. As a result, flav flipping town makes flum look incredibly scummy to me.

Ah, that’s an interesting take. I did not understand that. Thank you! This definitely makes more sense.

Although I disagree that BM would claim. PRs really do not need to claim this early in the game.

The fact that the game doesn’t feel early due to sheer page count keeps messing with me as I read what other people say lol…