M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[FlaviusAetius]

Both, I suppose. Or perhaps neither? You can talk about it in your daychat.

I told Ezio to send me the link. While I’m waiting, why don’t you tell me why you scumread Flum, and what the strategic value in creating a Flum wagon is, irrespective of his alignment?

I'll answer your question with a question: why wasn't the Battle Master activated D1?

I think battlemaster was activated AFTER damo got shot, with him dead I think they could have killed two town D2, and since one of them was probably going to be a lurker(fischl) it wasnt that big of a deal for them, so theyd end up killing THREE town D2, thats FIVE town dead by N2.
2 D1(including night)
3 D2(including night)

Dip pulling what he did literally changed everything, and ruined all of their plans

[Dousing]

I don’t have too much time but I just caught up

I’m assuming ghug was town and that mafia shot ghug (ik y’all thought of this before but I came up with this tonight independently while commuting)

If it turns out that whoever shot ghug was town I’m still believing that ghug was town. The best way for me to believe ghug was mafia would be if whoever janitored Ghug claimed he was mafia

[foodcoats]

@worcej is food a brainbomb style player normally?

whats a brainbomb style player?

Brainbomb posts a shitton, huge walls of crazy conspiracy theories, fakeclaims, and is just *always* wrong. It's astounding how often he can be wrong and keep it up.
It looks like flailing to me, and flailing is something I associate with scum.
Food looks like he's doing that today. I'm feeling so weird about it b/c D1 and D2 he didn't seem to be doing that, so I'm asking if this is him putting on a show of returning to his "normal" playstyle, or not.

Personally I try to be inspired by brain because I think his tinfoiliness can generate ideas that can uncover wily scum that a more straight-laced approach can miss. My default play is a little more “gold” as per the classic personality test and I find it is not very effective at finding scum until late in the game, so I do try to generate some tinfoily energy early. I refer to this as Worshipping at the Temple of the Frog God because Frogsterking explained the benefits of being more intuitive in a way that I understand and it’s a classic D&D module.

[President Eden]

-snip-

It's tough b/c I somewhat agree with you about optimal scum play here. I don't think scum should necessarily have pushed for a miskill here, but I've also never before seen a situation exactly like this before. Such a crazy change with 30 minutes left in the day; I'd expect mafia to panic.

I've also seen mafia push hard for a miskill on a role that would be confirmed clear later: how many times have you seen mafia push to miskill a claimed doctor when the opportunity arose? I've seen it a fair bit.

To be clear, I don't think you can only reach these conclusions from careful deliberation. I think becoming nervous and panicky is a natural response to the wagons unexpectedly becoming locked in at TvS with 30 minutes to go. But the specific reason is because trying to save Balki and forcing a miskill would look very bad. I think that nervousness would actually temper "wilder" players from being too bold in trying to save a teammate.

It's true that mafia sometimes push miskills on PRs with the risk of looking bad, but in that case the payoff is clear - remove a difficult PR from the game without using your nightkill. Those trades are probably only slightly -EV for mafia on balance, and if you get away with it then it becomes enormous +EV - so it makes sense that they'd gamble on it.

Those circumstances aren't present here. For one, D&W wasn't an outed PR. He was at best a likely clear when Balki flipped. So while it earns them a miskill, that's not the same benefit as a miskill on a PR. Two, a lot of the payoff to those plays (besides miskilling a PR) is that some other bickering or BS happens and the scum teammate escapes. I don't think that was going to happen here even if D&W went first.

It's also worth pointing out that if the Battle Master is mafia, then there's scarce reason for mafia to try to save their teammate when they can just turn the day into a trade. That captures all benefits from a miskill on D&W with no risk. So we have to be in a world where the Battle Master is town before any of it makes sense.

[Dousing]

I told Ezio to send me the link. While I’m waiting, why don’t you tell me why you scumread Flum, and what the strategic value in creating a Flum wagon is, irrespective of his alignment?

I'll answer your question with a question: why wasn't the Battle Master activated D1?

I think battlemaster was activated AFTER damo got shot, with him dead I think they could have killed two town D2, and since one of them was probably going to be a lurker(fischl) it wasnt that big of a deal for them, so theyd end up killing THREE town D2, thats FIVE town dead by N2.
2 D1(including night)
3 D2(including night)

Dip pulling what he did literally changed everything, and ruined all of their plans

Hard agree

[President Eden]

Actually, I suppose the Battle Master point isn't necessarily true, because the timing window on that for scum was basically nonexistent.

[BunnyGo]

I don’t have too much time but I just caught up

I’m assuming ghug was town and that mafia shot ghug (ik y’all thought of this before but I came up with this tonight independently while commuting)

If it turns out that whoever shot ghug was town I’m still believing that ghug was town. The best way for me to believe ghug was mafia would be if whoever janitored Ghug claimed he was mafia

Tonight?! It’s 230!

Also this is a scummy post.

[FlaviusAetius]

Bona’s day yesterday actually is a little weird.

He made several comments clearly indicating he scumread Dip (sarcastically). He made a single post saying he would kill Balki. Towards end of day he actually mostly mentions killing Balki, votes Balki, then jumps to Dip and ties the wagons, and moves back to Balki once it has a firm majority. He also throws in tying and suggests killing both of them.

A particularly weird very EOD statement:

this eod sucks so hard
[/quote

But… he clearly scumread Dip, and said he’d be okay killing Balki! It seems like an ideal EOD based on what he had stated during the day.

Bona can you comment on why you did not like that EOD even though earlier in the day you were basically scumming both of them?

Im convinced ##vote bona
He's so eager to kill Fox too without getting all the evidence
Squigs says his play is against his meta rn, and now this? Why wouldnt he be HAPPY
Even taking account that battlemaster is mafia, why would Bona not take the easy dube veryone else was doing that oh this EOD is so bad ahhh
If he GENUINELY believed Dip was mafia then he would of stuck to his guns, not flip flopped when the chips were down, because he KNEW the chips werent actually down and both were gonna die anyways

[sweetandcool]

I don’t have too much time but I just caught up

I’m assuming ghug was town and that mafia shot ghug (ik y’all thought of this before but I came up with this tonight independently while commuting)

If it turns out that whoever shot ghug was town I’m still believing that ghug was town. The best way for me to believe ghug was mafia would be if whoever janitored Ghug claimed he was mafia

This is correct. Janitor should claim if up for the DK, or before EoN, if ghug was Mafia.

Otherwise, we assume ghug was Town, regardless of which alignment killed him.

Actually another option is they crumb it, best of both worlds.

[FlaviusAetius]

I'll answer your question with a question: why wasn't the Battle Master activated D1?

I think battlemaster was activated AFTER damo got shot, with him dead I think they could have killed two town D2, and since one of them was probably going to be a lurker(fischl) it wasnt that big of a deal for them, so theyd end up killing THREE town D2, thats FIVE town dead by N2.
2 D1(including night)
3 D2(including night)

Dip pulling what he did literally changed everything, and ruined all of their plans

Hard agree

actually ADD one. 6 TOWN.
HB, Kak(D1,N1) --2
Damo, (two others due to battlemaster), N2 kill -- 4

mafia would be sitting SO GOOD right now if Dip didnt do what he did

[BunnyGo]

@flav

Your vote ended up in a quote and didn’t count

[FlaviusAetius]

Bona’s day yesterday actually is a little weird.

He made several comments clearly indicating he scumread Dip (sarcastically). He made a single post saying he would kill Balki. Towards end of day he actually mostly mentions killing Balki, votes Balki, then jumps to Dip and ties the wagons, and moves back to Balki once it has a firm majority. He also throws in tying and suggests killing both of them.

A particularly weird very EOD statement:

this eod sucks so hard
[/quote

But… he clearly scumread Dip, and said he’d be okay killing Balki! It seems like an ideal EOD based on what he had stated during the day.

Bona can you comment on why you did not like that EOD even though earlier in the day you were basically scumming both of them?

Im convinced ##vote bona
He's so eager to kill Fox too without getting all the evidence
Squigs says his play is against his meta rn, and now this? Why wouldnt he be HAPPY
Even taking account that battlemaster is mafia, why would Bona not take the easy dube veryone else was doing that oh this EOD is so bad ahhh
If he GENUINELY believed Dip was mafia then he would of stuck to his guns, not flip flopped when the chips were down, because he KNEW the chips werent actually down and both were gonna die anyways


not me messing up the quote feature again , ok fixed

[Dousing]

*snip*
[*]Yoyoyozo - Eh... null at best. Mostly mechs and voting Monarch for her catchup when he's also lurking. Seems a little opportunistic/low effort than actually contributing to consensus.
*snip*

I think you understate what we know about yoyo

As Ezio and I said his votes/scumreads are random or useless:

I might. For now I wanna get more people on Food though and show he's a viable wagon too.

Why food? I havent seen the argument for it yet

I haven't felt any conviction or drive to solve. He's randomly kept calling me scum and a lurker when I was pretty active all day 2, but he seemed slow to the party on that.
Also his votes d2 are awful. Me->Damo (which always looked bad imo)->me->damo->me.
Finally, when the cards were on the table and it was balki vs dip, he voted dip.

This was his vote:
"
@@VOTE Diplomacy&Warfare

I guess?
"
There's no reasoning there. He hadn't previously scumread dip, and we now know that was the *wrong* wagon.
It was his only post in the final 5 hours of the day, with 15 minutes left. I suspect he was posting more in the mafia daychat than in this one.

##VOTE ghug

I've just got a gut feeling about him.

I don't have a ton else, due to not having read half the thread

##VOTE MadMonarch

Your rapid succession of posts seem prepared. How are you replying to posts that are hours apart in a few minutes, jumping back and forth in time, etc.

Yoyo %%VOTE Demon out of retaliation and how they're %%VOTE Monarch bc... they're participating?

Neither of these look like actual votes imo. This is barely better than a nokill vote bc it's not giving us anything.

I think y'all miht be right about Yoyo being a mafia skater

##VOTE Yoyoyozo

[FlaviusAetius]

##vote bona
i cant figure out the quotes so im just not gonna try

[Dousing]

I don’t have too much time but I just caught up

I’m assuming ghug was town and that mafia shot ghug (ik y’all thought of this before but I came up with this tonight independently while commuting)

If it turns out that whoever shot ghug was town I’m still believing that ghug was town. The best way for me to believe ghug was mafia would be if whoever janitored Ghug claimed he was mafia

Tonight?! It’s 230!

Also this is a scummy post.

I literally have no clue what you mean?

[BunnyGo]

I don’t have too much time but I just caught up

I’m assuming ghug was town and that mafia shot ghug (ik y’all thought of this before but I came up with this tonight independently while commuting)

If it turns out that whoever shot ghug was town I’m still believing that ghug was town. The best way for me to believe ghug was mafia would be if whoever janitored Ghug claimed he was mafia

Tonight?! It’s 230!

Also this is a scummy post.

I literally have no clue what you mean?

Don’t you live in Montreal?

[sweetandcool]

##vote bona
i cant figure out the quotes so im just not gonna try

Yes, please stop. Thank you very much.

[Dousing]

Ik I didnt put him in my scumreads list for food but FWIW if I couldn’t vote for yoyo I’d probably switch my vote over to bona

[BunnyGo]

Ik I didnt put him in my scumreads list for food but FWIW if I couldn’t vote for yoyo I’d probably switch my vote over to bona

Why?

[Yoyoyozo]

I’m not sure how active I can be for the next couple hours
##vote sweet