M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[Fluminator]

Oh shit is that Eden

[brainbomb]

Yoyoyozo (4) DemonRHK Dousing sweetandcool worcej
JustAGuyNamedWill (3) Vecna FlaviusAetius Jamiet99uk
Fluminator (3) Foxcastle aarodactyl foodcoats
BunnyGo (2) Col7by Fluminator
Col7by (2) BunnyGo JustAGuyNamedWill
Bonatogether (1) Squigs44
foodcoats (1) Ezio
ghug (1) TheMadMonarch
TheMadMonarch (1) Yoyoyozo
Squigs44 (1) Bonatogether
Foxcastle (1) President Eden

Yoyo is scheduled to die
3 hours remain

[foodcoats]

Colby unfortunately it is D3, your free pass has expired

Is anyone down for a colby vote? I have no reason to townread him and when i see his posts, only go ‘hm this is pingy but hes new’

What are your other scum reads and how do they stack up against your Colby read?

[aarodactyl]

Why would Mafia shoot Ghug here, when he was becoming a viable wagon?

The timing is also weird to me as a scum move. I feel like they would want to wait until closer to eod. that said, the lack of a pr claim makes me think it’s still likely to be a scum move.

[FlaviusAetius]

@worcej is food a brainbomb style player normally?

whats a brainbomb style player?

[FlaviusAetius]

Why would Mafia shoot Ghug here, when he was becoming a viable wagon?

The timing is also weird to me as a scum move. I feel like they would want to wait until closer to eod. that said, the lack of a pr claim makes me think it’s still likely to be a scum move.

Do we know ghug's allignment? It doesnt say on the bot

[Ezio]

-snip-

Question: Why would people be confident "both wagons will flip either way?" Nobody knew about the battlemaster being used, unless it was scum. If Balki flips first, there's like no way in a million years we would ever flip Dip's slot after using the power to hard catch scum. If mafia didn't know about battlemaster (my current assumption), their only chance to get a misskill onto Dip was *right then*.

Also a question about foodcoats: Does he seem like the calculating type? Does he seem to be reasoning through everything he's doing and working on his votes to be townread? I'd take the simpler approach: he's scum who tried to save his caught teammate.
Brainbomb does that all the time.

More precisely, mafia should expect that Balki would flip either D2 or shortly thereafter (whether due to town kill powers or being the D3 vote). The choice is to kill Balki first and nominally look good for doing it, or to delay killing Balki one day and looking awful in the process. Most mafia players are risk-averse anyway; they'd be even more risk-averse when the reward is not "save Balki forever" but "defer Balki's death by 48 hours, tops."

Getting a miskill on D&W shouldn't have been a high priority for mafia in a game this size with this much killpower. You'd take it if you could, but you know Balki is on borrowed time. The game is going to be long anyway - there's no need to overextend and risk losing someone else.

Balki's virtual surrender is further evidence of that mindset, too. Mafia have always-on private chat. I'm sure Balki told his teammates he would be surrendering before it happened. Even players who fly by the seats of their pants would be a little more discerning knowing that's going to happen.

It's tough b/c I somewhat agree with you about optimal scum play here. I don't think scum should necessarily have pushed for a miskill here, but I've also never before seen a situation exactly like this before. Such a crazy change with 30 minutes left in the day; I'd expect mafia to panic.

I've also seen mafia push hard for a miskill on a role that would be confirmed clear later: how many times have you seen mafia push to miskill a claimed doctor when the opportunity arose? I've seen it a fair bit.

[Fluminator]

This is a context where if town shot ghug it's highly beneficial to claim

[FlaviusAetius]

Confession time:

I mainly scumread Fox because his defense with Balki was
And he was sooooo focused on it for no reason.
And I really wanted them to both be scum because that play with Daychat would have been awesome and it made sense.

Now I recall that he is actually just legitimately bad at defending himself and focuses on all the wrong things when he is under pressure.

Other than all of that, throughout the game he has done a good job of looking townie.

Consequently, he deserves to be moved somewhere in the neighborhood of slight Townlean.

I scumlean Fox now because he hasnt revealed his spreadsheet and I think has actively avoided doing it, because it wouldnt say good things about him

[BunnyGo]

This is a context where if town shot ghug it's highly beneficial to claim

If town shot ghug and ghug was town, they can remain silent and we will assume.

[Ezio]

@worcej is food a brainbomb style player normally?

whats a brainbomb style player?

Brainbomb posts a shitton, huge walls of crazy conspiracy theories, fakeclaims, and is just *always* wrong. It's astounding how often he can be wrong and keep it up.
It looks like flailing to me, and flailing is something I associate with scum.
Food looks like he's doing that today. I'm feeling so weird about it b/c D1 and D2 he didn't seem to be doing that, so I'm asking if this is him putting on a show of returning to his "normal" playstyle, or not.

[Ezio]

This is a context where if town shot ghug it's highly beneficial to claim

If town shot ghug and ghug was town, they can remain silent and we will assume.

I'm assuming mafia shot ghug.

[FlaviusAetius]

For anyone suspecting anyone on the Food wagon, hop on board! Let's force Mafia to bus!

yo what, what is your reasoning behind this food wagon you said it "must be right"...WHY?

[BunnyGo]

This is a context where if town shot ghug it's highly beneficial to claim

If town shot ghug and ghug was town, they can remain silent and we will assume.

I'm assuming mafia shot ghug.

Then ghug was town…

[Ezio]

If town shot ghug and ghug was town, they can remain silent and we will assume.

I'm assuming mafia shot ghug.

Then ghug was town…

That is my current assumption, yes.

[FlaviusAetius]

@worcej is food a brainbomb style player normally?

whats a brainbomb style player?

Brainbomb posts a shitton, huge walls of crazy conspiracy theories, fakeclaims, and is just *always* wrong. It's astounding how often he can be wrong and keep it up.
It looks like flailing to me, and flailing is something I associate with scum.
Food looks like he's doing that today. I'm feeling so weird about it b/c D1 and D2 he didn't seem to be doing that, so I'm asking if this is him putting on a show of returning to his "normal" playstyle, or not.

hmmm he has posted a lot today, I dont know if thats literally everything that should be the entire case on him, I dont like these random wagons that pop up out of no where and I cant understand what or why their up there. Ill pay attention to him more closely and see if I can find anything, a change in playstyle is basically why im voting for Will rn

So i dont think its a HORRIBLE idea ig

[sweetandcool]

Yoyoyozo (4) DemonRHK Dousing sweetandcool worcej
JustAGuyNamedWill (3) Vecna FlaviusAetius Jamiet99uk
Fluminator (3) Foxcastle aarodactyl foodcoats
BunnyGo (2) Col7by Fluminator
Col7by (2) BunnyGo JustAGuyNamedWill
Bonatogether (1) Squigs44
foodcoats (1) Ezio
ghug (1) TheMadMonarch
TheMadMonarch (1) Yoyoyozo
Squigs44 (1) Bonatogether
Foxcastle (1) President Eden

Yoyo is scheduled to die
3 hours remain

##VOTE Colbybeef

[foodcoats]

This is a context where if town shot ghug it's highly beneficial to claim

Not if ghug was town. Only if a town necromancer knows ghug was scum.

[FlaviusAetius]

Are we going to know ghug's alignment after EOD3?

[Ezio]

whats a brainbomb style player?

Brainbomb posts a shitton, huge walls of crazy conspiracy theories, fakeclaims, and is just *always* wrong. It's astounding how often he can be wrong and keep it up.
It looks like flailing to me, and flailing is something I associate with scum.
Food looks like he's doing that today. I'm feeling so weird about it b/c D1 and D2 he didn't seem to be doing that, so I'm asking if this is him putting on a show of returning to his "normal" playstyle, or not.

hmmm he has posted a lot today, I dont know if thats literally everything that should be the entire case on him, I dont like these random wagons that pop up out of no where and I cant understand what or why their up there. Ill pay attention to him more closely and see if I can find anything, a change in playstyle is basically why im voting for Will rn

So i dont think its a HORRIBLE idea ig

That's not the entire case zzzzzzzzZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzz.

Why do people care so much about posting stats? I just want people to read the fucking game, and think about it.

What do you think of his votes D2?