M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Colby unfortunately it is D3, your free pass has expired

Is anyone down for a colby vote? I have no reason to townread him and when i see his posts, only go ‘hm this is pingy but hes new’

Hi will nice of you to join us. I remember originally you were my first scum read because I thought you were trying to get on my good side asking for my opinion day 1. I called you out and then you disappeared so my thoughts on you left as well. I haven’t played with anyone so don’t know your normal behavior so have no read on you right now

I dont pay attention to who i buddy/distance in any game i play so whatever you think i did i did on accident

But im honored to be your first sr

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Colby unfortunately it is D3, your free pass has expired

Is anyone down for a colby vote? I have no reason to townread him and when i see his posts, only go ‘hm this is pingy but hes new’

##vote col

##VOTE COL7BY

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Mods D3 this guy

[Col7by]

Honestly I feel like even IF she was more active, that EoD phase thing is still going to make her not as active as we'd like. Its going to be hard to get a read on her no matter what

100% - I've fallen victim to that and she usually gets killed off for that. It's too easy to default to and that's why I'm a little turned off on by yoyo going that way.

At best, it's 16-4 now (no tadpole). At worst it's 15-5 (tadpole consumed). We're at a balanced started game still so I don't have an urgency to policy kill lurkers.

NGL I think we can officially say we dont have anymore lurkers I think we have reached the stage of the game where everyone has talked for at least one day and been active during that day that we cant call anyone a lurker anymores. The lurkers that did exist were replaced too, and their subs were not inactive. I stil believe in my designation theory but we gotta look to Day 1-->Half of Day 2 for that

Two things here
1. Don’t know what OMGUS is
2. I may have said it I forget but on day 1 I didn’t know that the game started in another thread (never used this site before) so I didn’t actually start reading until I was 40 pages behind about 6 hours until EOD so my participation was minimal.

[Col7by]

Mods D3 this guy

lol I’ll be back in a couple hours if people wish for me to defend myself on the train. Don’t mind taking some heat for a while haven’t gotten much attention yet.

[BunnyGo]

Im not sure I buy it ngl, what were Dip's and Balki's cases for Bunny? I dont remember

Dip said before death they scum read balki and bunny but didn’t chose bunny for the duel since balki was the other wagon. No real explanation behind them other than it but since dip flipped town that is what I am going off of

I bumped the original message dip had and my follow up it like 9 hours ago now so it’s somewhere lost in the pages but it’s there

The bot has hyperlinks of everyone’s names. Click them and see all the posts they made that day

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Mods D3 this guy

lol I’ll be back in a couple hours if people wish for me to defend myself on the train. Don’t mind taking some heat for a while haven’t gotten much attention yet.

Cool cool, no worries

[Ezio]

@worcej is food a brainbomb style player normally?

Ezio while you are here can you explain your bona scumread as well? Apologies if I missed it.

I haven't posted it. It's also my weakest read of the three.
Bona's votes d1 were awful: going from squiggs to ghug and not ending on a real wagon.

Bona's EoD2 is exactly how I would expect a nervous scum to play it, trying to both distance from a teammate, while also not actively pushing for them to die.

Went onto Balki at first, then, once the wagons were finally tied, flipped off onto Dip.
Then, at the very end of the day, voted Balki after he was (I'd argue) already sealed as the daykill.

I also really hate his case on squiggs. It doesn't feel like a real case. Bona admits it's probably built on OMGUS at the start of it, which also doesn't sit right with me. This final bit is not particularly alignment indicative though because it's what I expect from Bona. Still wanted to include it though.

[Squigs44]

@Vecna
@Squiggs

Is Foodcoats decent at the game? Are they a player you guys scumread when they're wrong, or is that just par for the course with them?

I genuinely don't remember much about foodcoats. Which means they aren't dumb enough for me to remember, but also aren't smart enough for me to remember.

The one thing pinging me about food is a distinct change in volume/focus after becoming a wagon

[worcej]

Can you rephrase that with fewer negatives?

food is so amazing at being a player that I consider him to be his own tier of awesomeness.

BB is also the best. Like, clearly the best. He also wins all the cases he makes, all the ones he makes, like all the time, every time.

LOL at first I was like “awwww shucks worcej” and then I had the piss taken right out of me hahahah

I explored the only in positive talk as best I could.

But I do think you’re a good player and am clearly town.

[Squigs44]

@Vecna
@Squiggs

Is Foodcoats decent at the game? Are they a player you guys scumread when they're wrong, or is that just par for the course with them?

My past two games with Food I was very impressed with their ability and ability to project towniness.

Not this game at all.

And hasn't he also significantly altered his playstyle today after I called him out for not solving?
If he did it *because* of me calling him out, that's also incredibly scummy.
I also stand by my vote analysis on him from yesterday.

Oh you also noticed it

[foodcoats]

@worcej is food a brainbomb style player normally?

Ezio while you are here can you explain your bona scumread as well? Apologies if I missed it.

I haven't posted it. It's also my weakest read of the three.
Bona's votes d1 were awful: going from squiggs to ghug and not ending on a real wagon.

Bona's EoD2 is exactly how I would expect a nervous scum to play it, trying to both distance from a teammate, while also not actively pushing for them to die.

Went onto Balki at first, then, once the wagons were finally tied, flipped off onto Dip.
Then, at the very end of the day, voted Balki after he was (I'd argue) already sealed as the daykill.

I also really hate his case on squiggs. It doesn't feel like a real case. Bona admits it's probably built on OMGUS at the start of it, which also doesn't sit right with me. This final bit is not particularly alignment indicative though because it's what I expect from Bona. Still wanted to include it though.

Yeah that’s pretty much how I feel although I admit I didn’t look very closely at his D1

Bona is probably my top scumread. I am on Flum now, ironically, because of the strategic value… something sweet claimed there was but never explained and even said he is only going on intuition so maybe he is just spouting whatever…

But anyway aside aside I would love a Bona wagon at EOD. I realize you (Ezio) probably prefer a me wagon but I’m putting this out there for all town

[aarodactyl]

I went out to buy strawberries (finally have local ones at the farmers market) and am doing errands now. I see ghug died (rip). Going to catch up on the thread but my phone is low on battery and I’m still out so we’ll see how far I manage to get. Will be home somewhat soon though and definitely should be around for eod.

[Ezio]

This duel near EOD2 is compelling mechanically. It's rare that you get such a direct, obvious "formation point" where everyone knows what the wagons will be. Rarer still for it to be TvS.

Initial reactions - Squigs, sweetandcool town. They must be either town or bussing scum. Just from a glance at the state of the wagons, I don't clearly see an incentive to be bussing a teammate at that point. I haven't read their takes on Balki yet, so I reserve the right to change my mind. (That said, they generically seem towny to me in the posting since I joined.)

foodcoats joining the town wagon when he did - T-00:15, putting D&W at 7 votes behind Balki's 8 - is "too scummy to be scum." It's not enough to save Balki, and Balki falling on his sword with no kills and self votes right afterward would severely undermine scum!foodcoats trying to save him. You'd also expect that scum!foodcoats sees Balki fall on his sword and takes the excuse not to be on the wagon. Basically, anyone with alignment info would realize how brazen this looks in hindsight, so he's not someone with alignment info, so he's town.

Conversely, Foxcastle and lfischl moved late from town to scum, after Balki waved the white flag. This is what I'd expect from mafia needing to adjust. (I recognize this implicates my slot, do with that what you will.)

I tend to think the people who were on D&W before the duel went public and who stayed there are town, provided they knew about the duel. Not ironclad, but when you have alignment information on a TvS wagon, and you can be pretty confident both wagons will flip either way, it's really hard to stay on the town wagon first. There's WIFOM in there, but generally mafia players are risk-averse in those situations. Balki practically surrendering furthers that.

Based on timing, that suggests Demon, worcej, and Yoyoyozo are town, but notably it does not suggest anything about Jamie, because he wasn't around for EOD.

I think Fox is the vote I want today. I can at least point to something reasonably objective about it in the limited time I've got.

Question: Why would people be confident "both wagons will flip either way?" Nobody knew about the battlemaster being used, unless it was scum. If Balki flips first, there's like no way in a million years we would ever flip Dip's slot after using the power to hard catch scum. If mafia didn't know about battlemaster (my current assumption), their only chance to get a misskill onto Dip was *right then*.

Also a question about foodcoats: Does he seem like the calculating type? Does he seem to be reasoning through everything he's doing and working on his votes to be townread? I'd take the simpler approach: he's scum who tried to save his caught teammate.
Brainbomb does that all the time.

[Squigs44]

My past two games with Food I was very impressed with their ability and ability to project towniness.

Not this game at all.

And hasn't he also significantly altered his playstyle today after I called him out for not solving?
If he did it *because* of me calling him out, that's also incredibly scummy.
I also stand by my vote analysis on him from yesterday.

I will give you the actual reasons I coasted until last night:

-busy week
-26 players!

Now the game is at a size and there is enough data that I can put on my thinking cap.

Plausible

[aarodactyl]

Hamilton Brian (9): Fluminator Ezio Foxcastle BunnyGo worcej Vecna sweetandcool DiplomacyandWarfare damo666
damo666 (6): Squigs44 Dousing Chaqa foodcoats FlaviusAetius Jamiet99uk
FlaviusAetius (3): JustAGuyNamedWill aarodactyl DemonRHK
DiplomacyandWarfare (2): Hamilton Brian Kakarroto
kingofthepirates (1): kingofthepirates (lol)
Vecna (1): TheMadMonarch
BunnyGo (1): ghug
ghug (1): Bonatogether
JustAGuyNamedWill (1): Col7by
Fluminator (1): lfischl


three deaths? sheesh.


Balki Bartokomous (13): Squigs44 DiplomacyandWarfare sweetandcool Col7by FlaviusAetius ghug aarodactyl Vecna Fluminator Ezio Foxcastle Bonatogether lfischl
DiplomacyandWarfare (6): DemonRHK worcej Jamiet99uk Yoyoyozo foodcoats BunnyGo
ghug (2): Dousing JustAGuyNamedWill
damo666 (1): TheMadMonarch
No-Kill (1): Balki Bartokomous (BoldStrategyCotton.gif)


nice play with Eldritch Knight by D&W.
no kill night 2... suggestive of tadpole use or a save.

yea yea "low effort contribution" my mom said your contribution last night was low effort

Questions:

1) were you saved or offered a tadpole?

2) what do you make of fish showing up with 30 minutes to go knowing what’s going on EOD2?

I won't disclose if I was saved. I wasn't offered a tadpole.

I haven't even read lfischl's posts lol. brain told me his alignment, not my concern.
With no disrespect to him, that behavior sounds entirely normal for him and not alignment indicative.

If you do choose to do it, it should take about ten minutes. Wasn’t much from him this game.

[foodcoats]

My past two games with Food I was very impressed with their ability and ability to project towniness.

Not this game at all.

And hasn't he also significantly altered his playstyle today after I called him out for not solving?
If he did it *because* of me calling him out, that's also incredibly scummy.
I also stand by my vote analysis on him from yesterday.

Oh you also noticed it

I will reiterate that I was largely coasting until last night due to a rough week and the sheer massiveness of the game. But scum me for that if you will.

[aarodactyl]

Necromancer: 1 shot power word kill. During the day once per game you may kill another player and they will be Janitored, and you will learn their role and alignment. They will flip as blank, and no information will be given other than their name. you must submit this action before the final 30 minutes of a day phase.

Has to be this role I think

I just read through the setup as well. I don’t see any other roles that would hide alignment like this.

[President Eden]

-snip-

Question: Why would people be confident "both wagons will flip either way?" Nobody knew about the battlemaster being used, unless it was scum. If Balki flips first, there's like no way in a million years we would ever flip Dip's slot after using the power to hard catch scum. If mafia didn't know about battlemaster (my current assumption), their only chance to get a misskill onto Dip was *right then*.

Also a question about foodcoats: Does he seem like the calculating type? Does he seem to be reasoning through everything he's doing and working on his votes to be townread? I'd take the simpler approach: he's scum who tried to save his caught teammate.
Brainbomb does that all the time.

More precisely, mafia should expect that Balki would flip either D2 or shortly thereafter (whether due to town kill powers or being the D3 vote). The choice is to kill Balki first and nominally look good for doing it, or to delay killing Balki one day and looking awful in the process. Most mafia players are risk-averse anyway; they'd be even more risk-averse when the reward is not "save Balki forever" but "defer Balki's death by 48 hours, tops."

Getting a miskill on D&W shouldn't have been a high priority for mafia in a game this size with this much killpower. You'd take it if you could, but you know Balki is on borrowed time. The game is going to be long anyway - there's no need to overextend and risk losing someone else.

Balki's virtual surrender is further evidence of that mindset, too. Mafia have always-on private chat. I'm sure Balki told his teammates he would be surrendering before it happened. Even players who fly by the seats of their pants would be a little more discerning knowing that's going to happen.

[Fluminator]

I am done, I'm driving home now. Is there anything urgent I'm needed for