M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[FlaviusAetius]

So there was something that happened D1 that prickled my nethers and not in a good way.

While I was pushing various wagons to try and get any kind of movement going, I landed on flum. At that time, Flav was on flum, and I felt like Flav immediately started to panic and try to explain a vote no one asked for explanation on.

Real "WHY ARE YOU VOTING HERE THIS IS THE ONLY REASON I AM HERE" vibes. Like getting caught on your scumbuddy vibes. Which now makes sense if it was a scum being pushed up to a TvT

this feels like a moderately towny post. not the type of thing id normally expect scum to come up with.

(i dont really agree with the read but its about the logic used)

Demon this is totally wrong though, sweet and I were pushing this wagon all D1, it didnt work out so I jumped ship, but THEN sweet got back on and we went back in to see if we could find more on Flum I was just doing a catch up so I figured I could. I didnt and by the time I caught up or close to it, everyone was jumping on flum when I JUST SAID that I was looking for more evidence. I didnt like it so I left. NOT because of YOU

[BunnyGo]

What is the case on ghug?

My case on ghug is odd. I feel that he usually reads the game similarly to me. I think we usually react similarly to the same posts on the little stuff, and when we disagree he's usually better about explaining himself so I can at least understand where he's coming from.

My reaction to dousing is exactly the opposite to him, unless Dousing is a Xorxes level player that we'd expect to have solved the game already.

Dousing focuses most of his energy on defending himself. Do you really think so highly of him?

[Vecna]

soft meta accusation, asking for exterior confirmation because unwilling to take a stand

scum!

its a hard fact lfischl used to act like that a while ago, consistently.

aint nothibg wrong in asking if that cjanged. people evolve their playstyle. (...well some people do)

i just don't believe this to be the case like you describe - that he only played pissed-off defense

i didnt say they only did that. i said it was always part of of their play as town.

its a long time ago and the behaviour mightve changed.

I really dno why this is so important for you.

[FlaviusAetius]

I also voted Ghug which is exactly what kak wanted to do (second to voting for D&W) + would've done a LOT to prove or disprove the credibility of kak's final argument

****ME:****
AGREED! But it seems like his argument is false now, though he still had good reasons for ghug soo and here's my response to you @ghug

****GHUG****

https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/posting.php?mode=quote&f=4&p=407226

Ok I'm back to thinking Flavius is town, and also back to thinking our relationship is going to be exhausting.

1. "I say stuff not designed to look good." not "I say stuff designed to not look good." there's an important difference.
2. I was not being buddy buddy with Vecna. I noted that we agreed and sweet ran with it, which is weird but I'm struggling to find scum motivation.
3. Your contradiction contradicts itself.
4. Has anyone agreed with Kak's meta read yet?

****ME****
A1. our relationship does not have to be exhausting just because I think you are a mafia
A2. also why do you think Im a town you cant just say that, arent you one of the people who are against naked reads? quoting something does not make it not a naked read

B1. there is no difference Im going to need you to explain it to me
B2. and you didnt push back against it until I brought it up thats the problem! Remember how Squiggs said you always pocket him? Then I said well he would know that so he wouldnt do it this time around. Well it looks like we found who you have started pocketing, Vecna!
B3. If there's a contradiction in what I said that is exactly what Im saying you dont make sense if you are a townie according to your meta
B4. That's odd isn't it, that NO ONE has commented on it?

****ME BUT CONTEXT ME****

V the contradiction I put forward V
"You saying this scummy thing is exactly the contradiction I put forward that you did
"So either your a big solver and thats unlike your town meta
Or you are a solver, and you all of a sudden dont want to solve until day 4""

I have no idea where the commentary and where the quote is.
[/quote]

Ok Ill make it SUPER clear

[FlaviusAetius]

Yes, and also:

4. Damo was highly likely to be daykilled by the town if left alive. Shooting him, as Mafia, would have been a bit of a waste when they could have just let town get on with wagoning Damo.

So why would yoyozo say this? A mafia veteran? Someone like me who can't solve for anything even realized this

I guess he was just hip-firing his take on the situation at a glance without stopping to fully consider all the angles.

I hipfire all the time this is the most silliest hipfire to make for a mafia veteran who everyone is hyped about coming back in. IM NOT GONNA LIE THO, most of Yoyo wagon right now is people who stab the subs and I dont think thats a good idea in principle. I think there are REAL reasons we vote yoyo, and NOT a policy vote. Might leave the wagon for one of my other reads *cough* will *cough*

[FlaviusAetius]

##vote will

[FlaviusAetius]

im more interested in the read on me. sorry for not being more clear, but i did not get the feeling at all you were scumreading me d1

Oh, I wasn't. I didn't take notes or anything, but my recollection is that as I was catching up you just seemed to consistent.

you didnt take notes? isnt that the whole point of your excel sheet?

also, if its just a recollection about consistency, what do you recall me being consistent on?

Im beginning to think this spreadsheet doesnt EXIST. Which I said would make me vote Fox...

[BunnyGo]

Other than those two and me, who would you like to wagon?

Balki on straight policy. But you’re willing makes me hesitate.
Flum because I think it sheds a lot of light on early game links.
Yoyo is a low end policy.
Ghug is approaching worrying levels of disinterest.

My read on ghug is just that this EOD is rough for his time zone. At least personally, it’s been brutal for EOD to be so early in the afternoon. It makes it very hard (at least for me personally) to follow the conversation.

This is weird for aaro to insert himself like this

[BunnyGo]

@vecna please claim your night tadpole/save situation

[FlaviusAetius]

I also voted Ghug which is exactly what kak wanted to do (second to voting for D&W) + would've done a LOT to prove or disprove the credibility of kak's final argument

AGREED! But it seems like his argument is false now, though he still had good reasons for ghug soo and here's my response to you @ghug

https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/posting.php?mode=quote&f=4&p=407226

Ok I'm back to thinking Flavius is town, and also back to thinking our relationship is going to be exhausting.

1. "I say stuff not designed to look good." not "I say stuff designed to not look good." there's an important difference.
2. I was not being buddy buddy with Vecna. I noted that we agreed and sweet ran with it, which is weird but I'm struggling to find scum motivation.
3. Your contradiction contradicts itself.
4. Has anyone agreed with Kak's meta read yet?

A1. our relationship does not have to be exhausting just because I think you are a mafia
A2. also why do you think Im a town you cant just say that, arent you one of the people who are against naked reads? quoting something does not make it not a naked read

B1. there is no difference Im going to need you to explain it to me
B2. and you didnt push back against it until I brought it up thats the problem! Remember how Squiggs said you always pocket him? Then I said well he would know that so he wouldnt do it this time around. Well it looks like we found who you have started pocketing, Vecna!
B3. If there's a contradiction in what I said that is exactly what Im saying you dont make sense if you are a townie according to your meta
B4. That's odd isn't it, that NO ONE has commented on it?

V the contradiction I put forward V
"You saying this scummy thing is exactly the contradiction I put forward that you did
"So either your a big solver and thats unlike your town meta
Or you are a solver, and you all of a sudden dont want to solve until day 4""

A1. I think we're the sort of people inclined to butt heads with each other. That's all I mean here.
A2. I thought for much of day 1 that you were displaying an eager and open townie mindset. I could follow your logic even if I didn't agree with it and I could see your earnest desire to find the mafia. I doubted this for some of day 2 because your push on me felt disingenuous (perhaps some OMGUS on my part), but the post I was replying to showed some pretty complex logic that was hard to imagine scum faking, much the same reason I townread you in the first place.

B1. I don't intentionally act scummy. I act how I feel suits town best, which doesn't necessarily entail working hard to look good, which is more of a motivation as scum.
B2. I'm trying to figure out sweet's alignment. Following his direction to work with Vecna would be odd, but immediately calling him out is likely to just make him stop if he's scum, which then means I can't understand his motivations. I'm also not pocketing Vecna at all. Agreeing with Vecna makes him scumread me, which is something I know will happen.
B3. This is no longer in the quote so I'm not going to bother responding to it. If you'd like to discuss something, please don't snip it. Update: I see you included it. Snipping still considered harmful. To answer, your point still contradicts itself. Both options assume that I am a solver. One argues that I'm scummy for not doing it. One argues that I'm scummy for doing it. Neither option allows me to be town. That doesn't make sense.
B4. I think it is odd that nobody's even answering you, but the fact is that nobody has agreed and almost everyone here has played with me a lot.
[/quote]

A2. Look at Balki just because someone has good analysis doesnt make them a good not a mafia, the real way to find how people are mafia is to find their MOTIVATIONS behind their analysis; that MOTIVATION will lead a breadcrumb trail right back to their PARTNERS

B1. You know what would be best for town right now? If people could actually get a solid read on you, MANY people have commented you have spoken a lot but arent readable...not good

B2. First off you can't just not pocket Vecna because you know he'll scumread you for it. Now you are just being contrarian, this is what I suspect you would do if your past meta was to pocket people as mafia. It seems you have a very convuluted reason to act scummy to catch sweet. Why? What was so impotant about sweet that YOU need to catch him in this VERY specific way? I dont buy it

B3. Yes I agree! Which is why I found it weird you were making that argument...to my response both of your interpretations of your argument made it seem scummy no matter which way it went THAT is a problem.

B4. Well thats true, its part of the reason I no longer think you are a mafia.

A1. Well thank you for responding anyways. I think this conversation has run its course, you can keep responding or not, I think I need to come up with NEW reasons to think you are mafia now

[FlaviusAetius]

Balki on straight policy. But you’re willing makes me hesitate.
Flum because I think it sheds a lot of light on early game links.
Yoyo is a low end policy.
Ghug is approaching worrying levels of disinterest.

My read on ghug is just that this EOD is rough for his time zone. At least personally, it’s been brutal for EOD to be so early in the afternoon. It makes it very hard (at least for me personally) to follow the conversation.

This is weird for aaro to insert himself like this

No its not, its also a problem for aaro, and has been for several people, he keeps mentioning it because he can relate; maybe he's doing too much relating, that much I agree with, aaro needs to make a comment on someone that doesnt involve the EOD being early afternoon

[FlaviusAetius]

BTW IDK how to fix the quote feature I wasnt actually quoting the conversation, I was trying to quote the quote from the bot so I just copied and pasted it and I did it all wrong

[FlaviusAetius]

I think looking at the votes right when the duel announcement happened is a mistake. Assuming Mafia activated the power to kill top two wagons, they would have activated it before the duel announcement (but probably pretty close to the 30 minute deadline).

Consequently at this VC (33 minutes) the power would have already been activated:

6 Dip, 3 lfisch, 3 ghug, 3 Balki

At this point Dip is extremely likely top wagon, Balki has momentum and otherwise maybe lfisch would be 2nd wagon. I don't think anybody would realistically expect ghug to come in 2nd.

IF Mafia activated power at this point, which I don't think, then despite Balki's momentum Mafia felt confident in protecting him, which means lfisch is not Mafia, and ghug is less likely Mafia.

If we look back to the VC at 37 minutes, right before Squig votes Balki and the tidal wave of Balki votes starts:

6 Dip, 5 lfisch, 3 ghug, 2 Jam

It much more strongly suggests lfisch is not Mafia. Jamie's wagon had just fallen apart, but the fact that it did have a good high water mark suggests later on it could still become the main counter wagon. This gives Jamiet some town points but obviously it's not conclusive like lfisch.

One might compare the Flavius wagon from a little earlier to the Jamiet wagon, but one difference is that the Flavius wagon felt like it fell apart due to people changing their minds and town reading him a bit, whereas the Jamiet wagon (temporarily?) fell apart due to not quite having the strength to beat Dip and consequently other flashwagons being attempted.

So really my conclusion is that lfisch looks Town and Jamiet looks kind of good.

I think this is another good argument for why fischl is NOT the mafia lurker which would leave yoyozo as a good alternative

[FlaviusAetius]

lfischl suddenly becoming very active here is interesting. He had posted a rip damo and a vote a few pages prior, but getting involved because his teammate got dueled seems plausible.

Well my theory is that the mafia decided to put their team members into roles one of these roles was the "lurker" kotp doesnt count because he got replace dby Balki and balki was anything BUT a lurker

I have never seen a scumteam play this way.

There is day chat from day 1, they 100% did it this way, remember how everyone in the signup thread was like ohhh this is such a unique activity requirements? Guranteed mafia took that in stride and designated someone. Again as I explained to Balki who also thought I was crazy the mafia likely put people who were COMFORTABLE being in those roles. Someone who usually lurks? Put them in the designated mafia lurker role, no biggie, they'll blend. Someone who yaps a lot? Put them in the designated mafia yapper, no biggie they'll blend. Someone wo analyzes everything? No biggie, put them ind esignated mafia analyzer. Someone who skates by with ltitle to no actual input? No biggie put them there.

Thats how I'd do it
Lurker
Skater
Analyzer
Yapper

That's 4 so either you double up, or you have someone who can be more flexible. I said from Day 1 I had this thought but I didnt want to reveal it incase mafia caught on, and changed tactics. I started talking about this A LOT Day 2, so I think there's some benefit for osmeone to go back and check out those other roles, right now I think we can focus on the lurker since people wanted to go after a lurker anyways. I just think FISCHL is the WRONG lurker to go after, and I dont like that he's been the "go-to" lurker from day 1

[FlaviusAetius]

This actually makes so much sense im so big brain for this not to pat myself on the back

[FlaviusAetius]

Flav your insistence that mafia has a designated lurker is super weird

No who else thought it was weird? Balki! Makes me think its even more true than I thought before. And bruh it could be two lurkers but theres definetly one

So you're just ignoring ghug?

Well my theory is that the mafia decided to put their team members into roles one of these roles was the "lurker" kotp doesnt count because he got replace dby Balki and balki was anything BUT a lurker

I have never seen a scumteam play this way.

I responded to ghug

[FlaviusAetius]

Flav is playing with a completely different framework than the rest of us but not necessarily a scumslip TMI kind of framework, just a series of weird assumptions, like MadMonarch is going to sub, the mafia team has a designated lurker, etc.

It makes it really hard to follow Flavs logic because he has so many assumptions that the rest of us aren't making.

Well dont you think thats a GOOD thing? Someone coming in with a different perspective and whatnot can totally make people think of new ideas that they didnt think of before

[BunnyGo]

This actually makes so much sense im so big brain for this not to pat myself on the back

I disagree strongly with your opinion. But I like the way you say it.

[FlaviusAetius]

Oh you know what

I bet Will is scum

Like where is Will? Will why are you so chill this game?

This is the EXACT reason Im voting for Will right now, why arent you?

[FlaviusAetius]

This actually makes so much sense im so big brain for this not to pat myself on the back

I disagree strongly with your opinion. But I like the way you say it.

Tell me why Im crazy, because Balki also thought I was crazy and I bet he thought it was low hanging fruit at to take down a crazy idea but now Balk is mafia, something he totally didnt expect, and he was coming after me like crazy. I think Im so right for this