M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[Foxcastle]

I would hope that a town would realize there are better cases for the battle master. If it is town, I don't suspect we can know the reasoning.

I think it makes a lot of sense to use it as scum though, including early on (when we're already down 2 extra miskills). But they wouldn't activate it if there was a chance that it would possibly kill scum, though. That would mean activating it at a time when there were virtually no votes on scum wagons. I think you'd also want to activate it close to the 30-minute deadline, as well. Balki briefly had votes about 2 hours out, but those evaporated quickly. He started getting votes again at 00:37. At that time, wagons were Dip (6), lfischl (4), ghug (3), Jamie (2), Dousing (2), Flav (2), Sweet (1), Ezio (1). (I may be missing some after the first 4 that I cribbed from the bot.)

I think this points to at least lfischl and ghug being town, and likely the rest of them.

This is rather more speculative, but why didn't they activate it on Day 1? It's just as good then, right? Deploy it fast so if you get caught, it doesn't get wasted.

Could it be because Flum was the lead wagon near the deadline on D1???

[FlaviusAetius]

@squigs: were you given a tadpole or attacked last night?

Why are you asking people this can I get a clear answer

I think scum know.

It’s to our advantage to know too.

And if there is someone with a tadpole, they should claim it and claim they destroy it. Scum know.

Thats a good point

[Foxcastle]

I would hope that a town would realize there are better cases for the battle master. If it is town, I don't suspect we can know the reasoning.

I think it makes a lot of sense to use it as scum though, including early on (when we're already down 2 extra miskills). But they wouldn't activate it if there was a chance that it would possibly kill scum, though. That would mean activating it at a time when there were virtually no votes on scum wagons. I think you'd also want to activate it close to the 30-minute deadline, as well. Balki briefly had votes about 2 hours out, but those evaporated quickly. He started getting votes again at 00:37. At that time, wagons were Dip (6), lfischl (4), ghug (3), Jamie (2), Dousing (2), Flav (2), Sweet (1), Ezio (1). (I may be missing some after the first 4 that I cribbed from the bot.)

I think this points to at least lfischl and ghug being town, and likely the rest of them.

That's what I said! Though the ghug wagon was going nowhere and I think Mafia could have defended it, so I don't think this specifically shows ghug is Town.

Sweet, do you think the battle master should claim if they're town in order to confirm the validity of this theory?

[foodcoats]

I've really hated his votes: SnC->me->ending on dip. Now he's on RHK.
I found his assumption the vig was mafia exactly opposite (if he flips scum, I think it's actually really like the vig *is* mafia).

I'm also just, very unimpressed by his play which I think is scum indicative for yoyo.

Vote yoyo with us

I might. For now I wanna get more people on Food though and show he's a viable wagon too.

Ah… I just realized something…

Clever girl

[BunnyGo]

This doesn't look like a strong opinion, its just the 5th person saying "Bona could be scum I guess" and moving on

@squigs: were you given a tadpole or attacked last night?

If you're gonna hound people about claiming and use all your time on mechanics instead of scumhunting, maybe follow the thread and read when people post it?

I was not tadpoled last night, nor roleblocked

For the record I think there are some night action results where keeping silent could be beneficial to town as to not give scum information they don't yet have. They should have tadpole and roleblock information so I see no harm in a tadpole mass claim though. For all other night action results we should leave it up to the town members to decide if they think it is more beneficial to claim now or later.

Doing my best. ##unvote


Sweet
Squigs
ghug
Jamie
Bunny
Flum
Fox
Colby
Flav

[foodcoats]

I might. For now I wanna get more people on Food though and show he's a viable wagon too.

Why food? I havent seen the argument for it yet

Vibes, bigtime.

Food is usually very agreeable and pleasant, but more importantly he normally contributes at least a few good takes.

Haven't seen any of that this game.

You fucking piece of trash shit

[Fluminator]

I would hope that a town would realize there are better cases for the battle master. If it is town, I don't suspect we can know the reasoning.

I think it makes a lot of sense to use it as scum though, including early on (when we're already down 2 extra miskills). But they wouldn't activate it if there was a chance that it would possibly kill scum, though. That would mean activating it at a time when there were virtually no votes on scum wagons. I think you'd also want to activate it close to the 30-minute deadline, as well. Balki briefly had votes about 2 hours out, but those evaporated quickly. He started getting votes again at 00:37. At that time, wagons were Dip (6), lfischl (4), ghug (3), Jamie (2), Dousing (2), Flav (2), Sweet (1), Ezio (1). (I may be missing some after the first 4 that I cribbed from the bot.)

I think this points to at least lfischl and ghug being town, and likely the rest of them.

This is rather more speculative, but why didn't they activate it on Day 1? It's just as good then, right? Deploy it fast so if you get caught, it doesn't get wasted.

Could it be because Flum was the lead wagon near the deadline on D1???

Nope, are you done yet?

[foodcoats]

So you disagree with my opinion of optimal strategy. You wouldn't do it. That doesn't mean I wouldn't do it.

Is there any reason you think the mafia would have pulled battle master D2?
You think a battlemaster town would have done it D2 because its early
I think a battlemaster town would have done it if they thought Balki or Dip were mafia

What were the reaosns the mafia would have done it early?
Taking out two town is a GREAT reason, but Balki was defending himself to the bitter end, he had a real chance to not be killed before Ezio flipped his vote. I dont think theres ANY chance that it was a mafia who pulled battle master D2

I don't really want to help the mafia figure out who our PR is if it can be avoided.

I think it's entirely possible the Mafia could have done it. I also think it was pretty risky for them if they had people on the block, and letting the town flip two highly suspected people helps us solve the game faster. I think it's possible town could have done it too, so I don't really want anyone trying to solve based on the assumption that mafia did it.

The amount of mech talk is insane.

I want to say good on brain with this design though because the mech talk is literally useless in this design

[foodcoats]

Lord Beancomb announced "A DUEL HATH BEEN INITIATED, DILLY DILLY" on page 153.

At that moment in time, before anyone moved their votes, the vote tally was:

Diplomacy&Warfare(6)- DemonRHK, Foxcastle, Jamiet99uk, Lfischl, Worcej, Yoyoyozo
Ghug(3)- Dousing, Flavius, JustAGuyNamedWill
Lfischl(3)- aarodactyl, Col7by, Vecna
Balki(3)- Diplomacy&Warfare, Squigs, Sweetandcool
Dousing(2)- Balki, Ghug
Jamiet99uk(2)- Ezio, Fluminator
Flavius(1)- Bonatogether
Sweetandcool(1)- BunnyGo
Ezio(1)- Foodcoats
Damo666(1)- TheMadMonarch

Note: Damo had his vote on Bonatogether when he died, but since Damo had died, that was no longer counted.

I'm not sure if there HAS to be a scum on Dip here, I'm more willing to bet there is scum on Damo, Ezio, Sweet, Flav, or Jamie.

But not on Ezio, on account of that being me.

Given that Balki's wagon was a contender, I think it's likely that there was already scum here. (Nothing *has* to be, of course.) Worcej and Yoyo, maybe.

Yeah, that’s fair.

I really didn’t like how RHK voted for Dip but I assumed it was a joke kinda thing… But in review RHK never moved off Dip. He made just a single vote. It’s very suspicious. Maybe he really was ultra convinced, just as I was on damo. I find RHK a hard read.

The ones on Dip I strong feel are town are Lfischl and Fox.

[foodcoats]

I'm not sure if there HAS to be a scum on Dip here, I'm more willing to bet there is scum on Damo, Ezio, Sweet, Flav, or Jamie.

But not on Ezio, on account of that being me.

Given that Balki's wagon was a contender, I think it's likely that there was already scum here. (Nothing *has* to be, of course.) Worcej and Yoyo, maybe.

Yeah, that’s fair.

I really didn’t like how RHK voted for Dip but I assumed it was a joke kinda thing… But in review RHK never moved off Dip. He made just a single vote. It’s very suspicious. Maybe he really was ultra convinced, just as I was on damo. I find RHK a hard read.

The ones on Dip I strong feel are town are Lfischl and Fox.

Oh you’re Fox LOL

[Foxcastle]

I would hope that a town would realize there are better cases for the battle master. If it is town, I don't suspect we can know the reasoning.

I think it makes a lot of sense to use it as scum though, including early on (when we're already down 2 extra miskills). But they wouldn't activate it if there was a chance that it would possibly kill scum, though. That would mean activating it at a time when there were virtually no votes on scum wagons. I think you'd also want to activate it close to the 30-minute deadline, as well. Balki briefly had votes about 2 hours out, but those evaporated quickly. He started getting votes again at 00:37. At that time, wagons were Dip (6), lfischl (4), ghug (3), Jamie (2), Dousing (2), Flav (2), Sweet (1), Ezio (1). (I may be missing some after the first 4 that I cribbed from the bot.)

I think this points to at least lfischl and ghug being town, and likely the rest of them.

This is rather more speculative, but why didn't they activate it on Day 1? It's just as good then, right? Deploy it fast so if you get caught, it doesn't get wasted.

Could it be because Flum was the lead wagon near the deadline on D1???

Nope, are you done yet?

Obviously not.

Why do you not think that's plausible? It's you, Damo, Ham, and Flav, and we know 2 of them are town and Flav was presumably not a concern for activating it on D2. So that leaves you.

[foodcoats]

Less speculating about mechanics and more talking about why yoyo/food/bunny/bona/jamie/whoever you're voting is scum

Have a back slap of approval. Still in my town books despite nighttime paranoia!

[Fluminator]

This is rather more speculative, but why didn't they activate it on Day 1? It's just as good then, right? Deploy it fast so if you get caught, it doesn't get wasted.

Could it be because Flum was the lead wagon near the deadline on D1???

Nope, are you done yet?

Obviously not.

Why do you not think that's plausible? It's you, Damo, Ham, and Flav, and we know 2 of them are town and Flav was presumably not a concern for activating it on D2. So that leaves you.

I'm not scum so I don't care if it's plausible. I'm sure you could make a narrative to fit whatever you want.

[foodcoats]

I might. For now I wanna get more people on Food though and show he's a viable wagon too.

Why food? I havent seen the argument for it yet

I haven't felt any conviction or drive to solve. He's randomly kept calling me scum and a lurker when I was pretty active all day 2, but he seemed slow to the party on that.
Also his votes d2 are awful. Me->Damo (which always looked bad imo)->me->damo->me.
Finally, when the cards were on the table and it was balki vs dip, he voted dip.

This was his vote:
"
@@VOTE Diplomacy&Warfare

I guess?
"
There's no reasoning there. He hadn't previously scumread dip, and we now know that was the *wrong* wagon.
It was his only post in the final 5 hours of the day, with 15 minutes left. I suspect he was posting more in the mafia daychat than in this one.

Checks notes… drive… conviction to solve… wait…

Dude are we scum together??? I didn’t get the disco link!!!

[Foxcastle]

Nope, are you done yet?

Obviously not.

Why do you not think that's plausible? It's you, Damo, Ham, and Flav, and we know 2 of them are town and Flav was presumably not a concern for activating it on D2. So that leaves you.

I'm not scum so I don't care if it's plausible. I'm sure you could make a narrative to fit whatever you want.

While that is true, everything here follows logically.

[foodcoats]

His votes, in particular.

(I literally have read half the game, plus a Fox ISO )

I don’t think Balki is bullying Fox persay but it reads to me that he wants to get rid of Fox because he’s had GREAT reads on people. It’s one of his quirks. Balki is great at convincing people (I’m not sure if this is confidential information but he is a lawyer)

The way I’ve read Fox this game is that he’s good at seeing the big picture, which spells trouble for someone trying to deceptively drive bandwagons. Of course, that entire argument could be contrived and they’re both mafia, and if they’re both mafia, Balki could be saccing Fox for town points. Those are the vibes I getting so far.

Hmm does scum yoyo make this post?

Ah that’s a great catch. Only if yoyo AND fox are also scum and this is wild theater. I feel very good about Fox so this actually amps my feels on yoyo.

[Fluminator]

Obviously not.

Why do you not think that's plausible? It's you, Damo, Ham, and Flav, and we know 2 of them are town and Flav was presumably not a concern for activating it on D2. So that leaves you.

I'm not scum so I don't care if it's plausible. I'm sure you could make a narrative to fit whatever you want.

While that is true, everything here follows logically.

I don't know what you're doing but you're being disingenuous and you know it lol.

[Foxcastle]

I'm not scum so I don't care if it's plausible. I'm sure you could make a narrative to fit whatever you want.

While that is true, everything here follows logically.

I don't know what you're doing but you're being disingenuous and you know it lol.

How am I being disingenuous?

[Foxcastle]

I'm not scum so I don't care if it's plausible. I'm sure you could make a narrative to fit whatever you want.

While that is true, everything here follows logically.

I don't know what you're doing but you're being disingenuous and you know it lol.

Counterpoint, you're being evasive.

[Fluminator]

While that is true, everything here follows logically.

I don't know what you're doing but you're being disingenuous and you know it lol.

How am I being disingenuous?

You decided I was scum for no reason, and twisting a narrative after the fact. I know you don't have a guilty on me, so I have no idea if you're reaction testing or pulling off a scum gambit, but you have nothing.

And it still seems pretty likely to me it was a town battelmaster. Like the amount of assumptions you have to make to even make it fit are a lot.