M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[FlaviusAetius]

1. Yoyo - Town
2. Balki - Mafia
3. JustAGuyNamedWill - Town
4. Jamiet99uk - Town
5. Bonatogether - Town
6. damo666 - Town
7. Hamilton Brian - Town
8. Dousing - Town
9. foodcoats - Mafia
10. BunnyGo - Town
11. ghug - Tadpoled?
12. Ezio - Town
13. FlaviusAetius - Null
14. DiplomacyandWarfare -Town
15. Kakarroto -Town (I miss you, sweet prince)
16. Worcej -Town
17. lfischl - Town
18. Vecna - Town
19. foxcastle - Null
20. TheMadMonarch - Who?
21. DemonRHK - Anarchist
22. Col7by - Town
23. Squiggs44 - Town
24. sweetandcool - Mafia
25. fluminator - Anarchist
26. aarodactyl - Mafia

naked lists are...USELESS!!

[FlaviusAetius]

The yoyo wagon is a fun one right now. I hard townread everyone on it but I also doubt all of your reads.

Is there more to Yoyo besides him being a replacement?

I've really hated his votes: SnC->me->ending on dip. Now he's on RHK.
I found his assumption the vig was mafia exactly opposite (if he flips scum, I think it's actually really like the vig *is* mafia).

I'm also just, very unimpressed by his play which I think is scum indicative for yoyo.

Vote yoyo with us

[Ezio]

Is there more to Yoyo besides him being a replacement?

I've really hated his votes: SnC->me->ending on dip. Now he's on RHK.
I found his assumption the vig was mafia exactly opposite (if he flips scum, I think it's actually really like the vig *is* mafia).

I'm also just, very unimpressed by his play which I think is scum indicative for yoyo.

Vote yoyo with us

I might. For now I wanna get more people on Food though and show he's a viable wagon too.

[sweetandcool]

Scum:

Fox
Yoyo
Food
Bunny

[FlaviusAetius]

I was the lead auditor for the internal ISO 9001:2015 audit for my companies largest production site that produces caustic soda (NaOH), hydrochloric acid (HCl), and Liquid Chlorine (Cl2) and has over 100 employees.

I interviewed ~20 people over 30 hours of on-site time and then worked in my hotel room to compile everything for the next day's interviews.

Is this all an excuse? No. But don't think I did any meta analysis or prior-game reviews on the bot as I tried to follow this game via my cell phone the past few days

I think you can provide a really good perspective on the game then if you take the time to review the game and offer a new set of eyes to it

[FlaviusAetius]

I've really hated his votes: SnC->me->ending on dip. Now he's on RHK.
I found his assumption the vig was mafia exactly opposite (if he flips scum, I think it's actually really like the vig *is* mafia).

I'm also just, very unimpressed by his play which I think is scum indicative for yoyo.

Vote yoyo with us

I might. For now I wanna get more people on Food though and show he's a viable wagon too.

Why food? I havent seen the argument for it yet

[Foxcastle]

<Sobs in catching up>

[Foxcastle]

Demon
Worcej
Bunny
Lfischl

These 4 look scummy using wagon analysis.

This is interesting and I want to come back to it.

[sweetandcool]

Vote yoyo with us

I might. For now I wanna get more people on Food though and show he's a viable wagon too.

Why food? I havent seen the argument for it yet

Vibes, bigtime.

Food is usually very agreeable and pleasant, but more importantly he normally contributes at least a few good takes.

Haven't seen any of that this game.

[Jamiet99uk]

The weirdness was thinking it’s very interesting people automatically assumed the 100% known mechanic compared to the fringe what if’s on PR actions

Worcej, there are FOUR potential saving actions, potentially in play.

Why is it "fringe" to consider that at least ONE of those four, might be?

Player count decreasing odds.
Knowing for sure 1/5 PRs for us isn’t a doctor role.
Knowing scum can 100% tadpole.

Just seems weird to think it’s “interesting” people would default to the more obvious mechanic.

I think it's weird not to consider both and immediately jump to the tadpole conclusion.

[ghug]

Hard disagree, I would use that ONLY if I thought one of top wagons were mafia, and there was a chance one of them werent going to be to be killed

So you disagree with my opinion of optimal strategy. You wouldn't do it. That doesn't mean I wouldn't do it.

Is there any reason you think the mafia would have pulled battle master D2?
You think a battlemaster town would have done it D2 because its early
I think a battlemaster town would have done it if they thought Balki or Dip were mafia

What were the reaosns the mafia would have done it early?
Taking out two town is a GREAT reason, but Balki was defending himself to the bitter end, he had a real chance to not be killed before Ezio flipped his vote. I dont think theres ANY chance that it was a mafia who pulled battle master D2

I don't really want to help the mafia figure out who our PR is if it can be avoided.

I think it's entirely possible the Mafia could have done it. I also think it was pretty risky for them if they had people on the block, and letting the town flip two highly suspected people helps us solve the game faster. I think it's possible town could have done it too, so I don't really want anyone trying to solve based on the assumption that mafia did it.

[ghug]

Hard disagree, I would use that ONLY if I thought one of top wagons were mafia, and there was a chance one of them werent going to be to be killed

So you disagree with my opinion of optimal strategy. You wouldn't do it. That doesn't mean I wouldn't do it.

lol are you trying to sound tadpoled on purpose?

Huh? This has nothing to do with the tadpole.

[Foxcastle]

Lord Beancomb announced "A DUEL HATH BEEN INITIATED, DILLY DILLY" on page 153.

At that moment in time, before anyone moved their votes, the vote tally was:

Diplomacy&Warfare(6)- DemonRHK, Foxcastle, Jamiet99uk, Lfischl, Worcej, Yoyoyozo
Ghug(3)- Dousing, Flavius, JustAGuyNamedWill
Lfischl(3)- aarodactyl, Col7by, Vecna
Balki(3)- Diplomacy&Warfare, Squigs, Sweetandcool
Dousing(2)- Balki, Ghug
Jamiet99uk(2)- Ezio, Fluminator
Flavius(1)- Bonatogether
Sweetandcool(1)- BunnyGo
Ezio(1)- Foodcoats
Damo666(1)- TheMadMonarch

Note: Damo had his vote on Bonatogether when he died, but since Damo had died, that was no longer counted.

I'm not sure if there HAS to be a scum on Dip here, I'm more willing to bet there is scum on Damo, Ezio, Sweet, Flav, or Jamie.

But not on Ezio, on account of that being me.

Given that Balki's wagon was a contender, I think it's likely that there was already scum here. (Nothing *has* to be, of course.) Worcej and Yoyo, maybe.

[Squigs44]

Less speculating about mechanics and more talking about why yoyo/food/bunny/bona/jamie/whoever you're voting is scum

[Squigs44]

I will be looking at yoyo again and giving my update. I want others to pick someone else on a wagon (Bona maybe?) and give thoughts

[Ezio]

Vote yoyo with us

I might. For now I wanna get more people on Food though and show he's a viable wagon too.

Why food? I havent seen the argument for it yet

I haven't felt any conviction or drive to solve. He's randomly kept calling me scum and a lurker when I was pretty active all day 2, but he seemed slow to the party on that.
Also his votes d2 are awful. Me->Damo (which always looked bad imo)->me->damo->me.
Finally, when the cards were on the table and it was balki vs dip, he voted dip.

This was his vote:
"
@@VOTE Diplomacy&Warfare

I guess?
"
There's no reasoning there. He hadn't previously scumread dip, and we now know that was the *wrong* wagon.
It was his only post in the final 5 hours of the day, with 15 minutes left. I suspect he was posting more in the mafia daychat than in this one.

[Squigs44]

I think my wagon pool remains:
lfischl
Jamie

<gap>

Bona
Bunny
Ezio
MadMonarch
Yoyo
Foodcoats

Yoyoyozo (3) DemonRHK FlaviusAetius sweetandcool
foodcoats (2) ghug Ezio
BunnyGo (2) Col7by Fluminator
Bonatogether (1) Squigs44
Jamiet99uk (1) foodcoats
JustAGuyNamedWill (1) Vecna
DemonRHK (1) Yoyoyozo
ghug (1) worcej

I'm not terribly upset at today so far tho

[Foxcastle]

It took Fox 33 minutes to make his meta case discrediting Balki.

Not impossible, but impressively speedy.

This supports the notion that Fox had it in his grudge folder. That is, this stuff from years ago was so seared in his mind he was able to find it relatively quickly, or he literally had some of this stuff saved or something.

Alternatively, it could be part of a coordinated plan with Balki.

Here I would post a detailed case, but not doing that this game probably.

I'm not impressed with Fox's day, and his love for voting Dip is

I think he is Mafia, but of course it's possible I'm wrong.

Then again, I'm 100% so far so maybe y'all will listen.

I really didn't want to dispel the magic for BunnyGo, but in order to clear this up: I had ChatGPT write a python script that scanned the past games on the bot to identify which ones Balki and I had been in together. It was the work of minutes, including having to pivot to searching the txt pages rather than the HTML pages due to the program running into SSL issues at first. From there, it was a simple matter of copying in the bot search URL that looks for Balki* talking about Fox*, updating the game number, and then finding the quotes that made my point.

This must have been insanely hard, or insanely easy Im not really sure I dont know how to code, but still seems like a lot of effort

It is insanely easy. I don't know anything about coding, I just copy and paste what ChatGPT spits out and report back any errors until it works.

[Yoyoyozo]

If I had a town role that let me kill the top two wagons I'd use the shit out of that early.

Early in the day? Why?

That makes no sense. You would use it close to deadline.

Early in the game.

“I don't really want to get into the detailed psychology of this because I don't want to help the Mafia. My point is that it's not a given that this was scum's doing.” -ghug

Maybe someone was NK’d and saved. I would think mafia would want someone to replace Balki’s strategic capabilities, but maybe they had a good idea of who a PR might be?

[Squigs44]

Balki called FoxCastle low impact, and attributed that to scumminess. Do people think Fox isn't low impact, or do they think he isn't scummy for that? Or do you agree with Balki?

His votes, in particular.

(I literally have read half the game, plus a Fox ISO )

I don’t think Balki is bullying Fox persay but it reads to me that he wants to get rid of Fox because he’s had GREAT reads on people. It’s one of his quirks. Balki is great at convincing people (I’m not sure if this is confidential information but he is a lawyer)

The way I’ve read Fox this game is that he’s good at seeing the big picture, which spells trouble for someone trying to deceptively drive bandwagons. Of course, that entire argument could be contrived and they’re both mafia, and if they’re both mafia, Balki could be saccing Fox for town points. Those are the vibes I getting so far.

Hmm does scum yoyo make this post?