M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[sweetandcool]

I think looking at the votes right when the duel announcement happened is a mistake. Assuming Mafia activated the power to kill top two wagons, they would have activated it before the duel announcement (but probably pretty close to the 30 minute deadline).

Consequently at this VC (33 minutes) the power would have already been activated:

6 Dip, 3 lfisch, 3 ghug, 3 Balki

At this point Dip is extremely likely top wagon, Balki has momentum and otherwise maybe lfisch would be 2nd wagon. I don't think anybody would realistically expect ghug to come in 2nd.

IF Mafia activated power at this point, which I don't think, then despite Balki's momentum Mafia felt confident in protecting him, which means lfisch is not Mafia, and ghug is less likely Mafia.

If we look back to the VC at 37 minutes, right before Squig votes Balki and the tidal wave of Balki votes starts:

6 Dip, 5 lfisch, 3 ghug, 2 Jam

It much more strongly suggests lfisch is not Mafia. Jamie's wagon had just fallen apart, but the fact that it did have a good high water mark suggests later on it could still become the main counter wagon. This gives Jamiet some town points but obviously it's not conclusive like lfisch.

One might compare the Flavius wagon from a little earlier to the Jamiet wagon, but one difference is that the Flavius wagon felt like it fell apart due to people changing their minds and town reading him a bit, whereas the Jamiet wagon (temporarily?) fell apart due to not quite having the strength to beat Dip and consequently other flashwagons being attempted.

So really my conclusion is that lfisch looks Town and Jamiet looks kind of good.

The problem with all this is that the Battlemaster could be town who said "Hee hee! I hit the button!"

Are you claiming?

[Vecna]

I'm not loving the Jamiet wagon taking off after he left, and I don't feel like those votes are well justified.

dont forget this post tomorrow

[sweetandcool]

This is my least favorite iteration of Food.

I've never seen him as Mafia, hmmmmmm.

[Vecna]

Guys get off dip

##VOTE GHUG

Eod is in what, 4 minutes? An hour and 4?

this vote was also off note. i believe someone made the argumentbefore

[ghug]

Why did this duel help town? Why not let it ride out? What do we gain from limited options?

Squigs town using the same Flum logic.

I think a lot of people had this same reaction to what Dip was doing, NAI

A lot of people are town.

[ghug]

Oh you know what

I bet Will is scum

Like where is Will? Will why are you so chill this game?

Agreed, but also, you know what

I bet food is scum

Like where is food? Food why are you so chill this game?

[Vecna]

Guys get off dip

##VOTE GHUG

Eod is in what, 4 minutes? An hour and 4?

just to explain in case the argument was of another vote change...

will quoted the call to flash balki and voted there. as soon as someone joined he quickly jumped off.

[sweetandcool]

Fingers crossed that y'all are doing the responsible analysis which I am neglecting.

People better be reading Balki's ISO etc.

I've managed to read about half, and I think other than the Fox/Balki theatrics, he did a great job looking Town.

If we flip Fox and he is Mafia, then I would expect most of Balki's takes to be authentic throughout the day. That is, his Town reads are more likely town and his scumreads are more likely Mafia.

IF Fox is Mafia.

My logic being that the outcome of a mutual bus is inevitably one of the players will eventually flip. So it makes sense to WIFOM by not making WIFOM statements.

[FlaviusAetius]

Pretty much an empty head.

Looking for ammo, scumbunny?

Was hoping to learn you're actually thinking and hunting rather than just posting sh**.

Sadly it seems you're just scum spamming.

This response was not towny.

Hardly surprising you would put it in an unfairly unflattering way.

It's no secret I am not making cases this game. I do not have the focus or energy to do so. And hardly anyone listens to me anyways, so I see little point.

Instead, I am focusing on intuition instead. Considering I have gotten the alignment correct for all flips so far, I'm actually doing a bangup job.

Or of course you could choose to believe it's the result of TMI which is fair enough.

My response was honest, but it's unsurprising that I'm next in your crosshairs after your failed* attempt on Dip.

I think thats false we tag teamed flum D1 and you seemed very excited then, we even had a wagon going and were actively trying to find information on Flum to get the wagon to be te most successful, then it all fell apart when people joined us before we could. Werent you also anti damo tho? So you are actually 2/3

Oof just went back you actually voted HB, so wdym 2nd one? You were just correct on the Balki vs. Dip thing, which...13 people were.

[sweetandcool]

Was hoping to learn you're actually thinking and hunting rather than just posting sh**.

Sadly it seems you're just scum spamming.

This response was not towny.

Hardly surprising you would put it in an unfairly unflattering way.

It's no secret I am not making cases this game. I do not have the focus or energy to do so. And hardly anyone listens to me anyways, so I see little point.

Instead, I am focusing on intuition instead. Considering I have gotten the alignment correct for all flips so far, I'm actually doing a bangup job.

Or of course you could choose to believe it's the result of TMI which is fair enough.

My response was honest, but it's unsurprising that I'm next in your crosshairs after your failed* attempt on Dip.

I think thats false we tag teamed flum D1 and you seemed very excited then, we even had a wagon going and were actively trying to find information on Flum to get the wagon to be te most successful, then it all fell apart when people joined us before we could. Werent you also anti damo tho? So you are actually 2/3

Oof just went back you actually voted HB, so wdym 2nd one? You were just correct on the Balki vs. Dip thing, which...13 people were.

If you looked closer I did not want to vote Ham, but I did not want a tie and it was clear only Ham and damo were options.

I townread Ham.
I was iffy on damo, but before EoD1 I concluded he was a PR.
I townread Kak, but thought his reads were awful.
I defended Dip hard from beginning to end.
I scammed Balki most of D2.

Yes, I am fire.

[Fluminator]

Hardly surprising you would put it in an unfairly unflattering way.

It's no secret I am not making cases this game. I do not have the focus or energy to do so. And hardly anyone listens to me anyways, so I see little point.

Instead, I am focusing on intuition instead. Considering I have gotten the alignment correct for all flips so far, I'm actually doing a bangup job.

Or of course you could choose to believe it's the result of TMI which is fair enough.

My response was honest, but it's unsurprising that I'm next in your crosshairs after your failed* attempt on Dip.

I think thats false we tag teamed flum D1 and you seemed very excited then, we even had a wagon going and were actively trying to find information on Flum to get the wagon to be te most successful, then it all fell apart when people joined us before we could. Werent you also anti damo tho? So you are actually 2/3

Oof just went back you actually voted HB, so wdym 2nd one? You were just correct on the Balki vs. Dip thing, which...13 people were.

If you looked closer I did not want to vote Ham, but I did not want a tie and it was clear only Ham and damo were options.

I townread Ham.
I was iffy on damo, but before EoD1 I concluded he was a PR.
I townread Kak, but thought his reads were awful.
I defended Dip hard from beginning to end.
I scammed Balki most of D2.

Yes, I am fire.

You were wrong on me though

[Vecna]

I think people did this because the cases on people werent good;
HB cracked under pressure from damo, who never explained his case
lfischl's case was never made(?) atleast not that Im aware of
My case was a flash wagon kept alive from two people who were AFK and didnt have a reason for voting me in the first place
Flum's wagon did have a reasoning behind it...but nothing else really came up so I had to kill it
Dip's wagon didnt gain steam quick enough so we were forced back into the HB & Damo question

All of the wagons were weak D1 and damo being alive right now gives us more questions than answers.

this post just reminded me of something.

lfischl did not attack anyone over getting voted.

As town the slot always lurked a bit, but it would always come out of hiding to attack people voting them with genuine righteous indignation. This has been a consistent characteristic i remember occuring in a number of games.

Anyone have any more recent meta-stuff that jives with or disagrees with ny assesment that this could be a thing?

soft meta accusation, asking for exterior confirmation because unwilling to take a stand

scum!

its a hard fact lfischl used to act like that a while ago, consistently.

aint nothibg wrong in asking if that cjanged. people evolve their playstyle. (...well some people do)

[Fluminator]

Aaro, If you see this (I know you're busier now), can you iso me, and see my posts regarding Bunny. Is this something Bunny would genuinely miss? It really seems like he's obfuscating lack of knowledge here.

[Vecna]

This is my PR:

Eldritch Knight: once per game, choose another player, and the wagon must be you vs them. If you activate this it will be announced, you must submit this action before the final 30 minutes of a day phase.

If brain didn't already make this clear, only me and balki can be daykilled today.

he can still be scum right? PR roles are possible for both factions

the appearance of this slot at this time with this post is also highly suspicious.

[FlaviusAetius]

Excuse me?
What was terrible was the wagon on me. It's been pushed since the beginning of D2 my Demon, who is obviously tunneling me.
What was terrible were the other wagons. The fish and ghug wagons were barely better than mine.
What was terrible was the fact that nobody else noticed Bunny or Balki being scum.
My decision to prevent a town kill by forcing a duel between myself and my scumread was entirely reasonable.

Bad execution. You should have claimed first, asked a few of us to form a wagon of your choice, and then used the ability to prove your claim

Not that we’d be in a situation like this again, but what’s interesting is that this only works because the vig shot earlier. I guess it’s a gamble because there could be 2 vigs. If Dip got shot, that shot would 100% be a mafia vig shot. It would give us a ton of info though, and Balki would have still probably flipped. I’m fairly confident that the first shot was mafia though.

I just dont understand how you think this

[FlaviusAetius]

I think thats false we tag teamed flum D1 and you seemed very excited then, we even had a wagon going and were actively trying to find information on Flum to get the wagon to be te most successful, then it all fell apart when people joined us before we could. Werent you also anti damo tho? So you are actually 2/3

Oof just went back you actually voted HB, so wdym 2nd one? You were just correct on the Balki vs. Dip thing, which...13 people were.

If you looked closer I did not want to vote Ham, but I did not want a tie and it was clear only Ham and damo were options.

I townread Ham.
I was iffy on damo, but before EoD1 I concluded he was a PR.
I townread Kak, but thought his reads were awful.
I defended Dip hard from beginning to end.
I scammed Balki most of D2.

Yes, I am fire.

You were wrong on me though

damo was not a PR

[ghug]

This is my PR:

Eldritch Knight: once per game, choose another player, and the wagon must be you vs them. If you activate this it will be announced, you must submit this action before the final 30 minutes of a day phase.

If brain didn't already make this clear, only me and balki can be daykilled today.

he can still be scum right? PR roles are possible for both factions

the appearance of this slot at this time with this post is also highly suspicious.

Stop copying me.

[Fluminator]

this is tragic

Hi lfischl how are you?

not bad, trying to understand the play, I only voted D&W originally to break the tie between him and myself, and I think most likely both are town which sucks

Is town Ifischl known for voting for a townread for survival purposes with 54 minutes still until deadline?

[Fluminator]

Bad execution. You should have claimed first, asked a few of us to form a wagon of your choice, and then used the ability to prove your claim

Not that we’d be in a situation like this again, but what’s interesting is that this only works because the vig shot earlier. I guess it’s a gamble because there could be 2 vigs. If Dip got shot, that shot would 100% be a mafia vig shot. It would give us a ton of info though, and Balki would have still probably flipped. I’m fairly confident that the first shot was mafia though.

I just dont understand how you think this

Yoyo is actually correct that the setup with 26 players and 5 scum (even with a potential 6th) is still a little townsided, and that a mafia vig would balance it more. (Ignoring the 24 hour phases hurting town a little but that's breaking common convention)
I don't think a mafia would have shot damo, but it does make mechanical sense in terms of balance.

[FlaviusAetius]

this post just reminded me of something.

lfischl did not attack anyone over getting voted.

As town the slot always lurked a bit, but it would always come out of hiding to attack people voting them with genuine righteous indignation. This has been a consistent characteristic i remember occuring in a number of games.

Anyone have any more recent meta-stuff that jives with or disagrees with ny assesment that this could be a thing?

soft meta accusation, asking for exterior confirmation because unwilling to take a stand

scum!

its a hard fact lfischl used to act like that a while ago, consistently.

aint nothibg wrong in asking if that cjanged. people evolve their playstyle. (...well some people do)

Ok I was looking for a reason for why fischl was a wagon so often and so many times, and now I see why; people vote for Fsichl to get that reaction out of Fischl and then be able to read him. However fischl has NOT done that this time, yet as you stated you are the only one who remember this meta out of him...

And once they werent get4ting a reaction out of him, why keep voting? This doesnt sit right with me not one bit