M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[sweetandcool]

*snip*

I also voted Ghug which is exactly what kak wanted to do (second to voting for D&W) + would've done a LOT to prove or disprove the credibility of kak's final argument

AGREED! But it seems like his argument is false now, though he still had good reasons for ghug soo and here's my response to you @ghug

https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/posting.php?mode=quote&f=4&p=407226

Ok I'm back to thinking Flavius is town, and also back to thinking our relationship is going to be exhausting.

1. "I say stuff not designed to look good." not "I say stuff designed to not look good." there's an important difference.
2. I was not being buddy buddy with Vecna. I noted that we agreed and sweet ran with it, which is weird but I'm struggling to find scum motivation.
3. Your contradiction contradicts itself.
4. Has anyone agreed with Kak's meta read yet?

A1. our relationship does not have to be exhausting just because I think you are a mafia
A2. also why do you think Im a town you cant just say that, arent you one of the people who are against naked reads? quoting something does not make it not a naked read

B1. there is no difference Im going to need you to explain it to me
B2. and you didnt push back against it until I brought it up thats the problem! Remember how Squiggs said you always pocket him? Then I said well he would know that so he wouldnt do it this time around. Well it looks like we found who you have started pocketing, Vecna!
B3. If there's a contradiction in what I said that is exactly what Im saying you dont make sense if you are a townie according to your meta
B4. That's odd isn't it, that NO ONE has commented on it?

V the contradiction I put forward V
"You saying this scummy thing is exactly the contradiction I put forward that you did
"So either your a big solver and thats unlike your town meta
Or you are a solver, and you all of a sudden dont want to solve until day 4""
[/quote]

I have no idea where the commentary and where the quote is.

[Jamiet99uk]

The vigilante is totally a town
1. They listened to me and others who said damo's gotta go to clear up EoD1
2. His actions were 100% scummy
3. It made D2 useful and not useless as it would have been

Yes, and also:

4. Damo was highly likely to be daykilled by the town if left alive. Shooting him, as Mafia, would have been a bit of a waste when they could have just let town get on with wagoning Damo.

So why would yoyozo say this? A mafia veteran? Someone like me who can't solve for anything even realized this

I guess he was just hip-firing his take on the situation at a glance without stopping to fully consider all the angles.

[Vecna]

I have felt good about Flav being town from early on, yes. That is specifically a reaction to the pages between when I last posted prior to page 93 and page 93.

im more interested in the read on me. sorry for not being more clear, but i did not get the feeling at all you were scumreading me d1

Oh, I wasn't. I didn't take notes or anything, but my recollection is that as I was catching up you just seemed to consistent.

you didnt take notes? isnt that the whole point of your excel sheet?

also, if its just a recollection about consistency, what do you recall me being consistent on?

[Ezio]

So there was something that happened D1 that prickled my nethers and not in a good way.

While I was pushing various wagons to try and get any kind of movement going, I landed on flum. At that time, Flav was on flum, and I felt like Flav immediately started to panic and try to explain a vote no one asked for explanation on.

Real "WHY ARE YOU VOTING HERE THIS IS THE ONLY REASON I AM HERE" vibes. Like getting caught on your scumbuddy vibes. Which now makes sense if it was a scum being pushed up to a TvT

this feels like a moderately towny post. not the type of thing id normally expect scum to come up with.

(i dont really agree with the read but its about the logic used)

I agree that RHK is town. I also agree that RHK's reads suck.

[FlaviusAetius]

This is my PR:

Eldritch Knight: once per game, choose another player, and the wagon must be you vs them. If you activate this it will be announced, you must submit this action before the final 30 minutes of a day phase.

If brain didn't already make this clear, only me and balki can be daykilled today.

he can still be scum right? PR roles are possible for both factions

lfischl suddenly becoming very active here is interesting. He had posted a rip damo and a vote a few pages prior, but getting involved because his teammate got dueled seems plausible.

Well my theory is that the mafia decided to put their team members into roles one of these roles was the "lurker" kotp doesnt count because he got replace dby Balki and balki was anything BUT a lurker

[FlaviusAetius]

lurkers so far;
lfischl (keeps being the ONLY lurker to get CONSISTENT wagons on him...but nothing more than being a lurker; WHY ONLY HIM?)
colby (has said some sus stuff, is still a newbie tho, maybe give him more chances?)
ezio (i like his reads and has been getting consistently more active)
yoyozo (starting to suspect)
themadmonarch (is about to get subbed out, no need to kill them now, surely a mafia wouldnt be THIS inactive)
worcecj(said before game began he would for first few days)
demon(high end of the lurkers, just hasnt talked during N2 )

[Vecna]

I don't think Flav is scum, and I think there was a good point about lfischl skating by without even bothering to confront scumreads on him, so ##VOTE lfischl

interesting that you had me as a scumread because i had no progression, yet then proceed to use my (very progressive!) reasoning to vote lfisch.

and you give no proper citations dear foxy.

i do find this strange

[ghug]

*snip*

I also voted Ghug which is exactly what kak wanted to do (second to voting for D&W) + would've done a LOT to prove or disprove the credibility of kak's final argument

AGREED! But it seems like his argument is false now, though he still had good reasons for ghug soo and here's my response to you @ghug

https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/posting.php?mode=quote&f=4&p=407226

Ok I'm back to thinking Flavius is town, and also back to thinking our relationship is going to be exhausting.

1. "I say stuff not designed to look good." not "I say stuff designed to not look good." there's an important difference.
2. I was not being buddy buddy with Vecna. I noted that we agreed and sweet ran with it, which is weird but I'm struggling to find scum motivation.
3. Your contradiction contradicts itself.
4. Has anyone agreed with Kak's meta read yet?

A1. our relationship does not have to be exhausting just because I think you are a mafia
A2. also why do you think Im a town you cant just say that, arent you one of the people who are against naked reads? quoting something does not make it not a naked read

B1. there is no difference Im going to need you to explain it to me
B2. and you didnt push back against it until I brought it up thats the problem! Remember how Squiggs said you always pocket him? Then I said well he would know that so he wouldnt do it this time around. Well it looks like we found who you have started pocketing, Vecna!
B3. If there's a contradiction in what I said that is exactly what Im saying you dont make sense if you are a townie according to your meta
B4. That's odd isn't it, that NO ONE has commented on it?

V the contradiction I put forward V
"You saying this scummy thing is exactly the contradiction I put forward that you did
"So either your a big solver and thats unlike your town meta
Or you are a solver, and you all of a sudden dont want to solve until day 4""
[/quote]

A1. I think we're the sort of people inclined to butt heads with each other. That's all I mean here.
A2. I thought for much of day 1 that you were displaying an eager and open townie mindset. I could follow your logic even if I didn't agree with it and I could see your earnest desire to find the mafia. I doubted this for some of day 2 because your push on me felt disingenuous (perhaps some OMGUS on my part), but the post I was replying to showed some pretty complex logic that was hard to imagine scum faking, much the same reason I townread you in the first place.

B1. I don't intentionally act scummy. I act how I feel suits town best, which doesn't necessarily entail working hard to look good, which is more of a motivation as scum.
B2. I'm trying to figure out sweet's alignment. Following his direction to work with Vecna would be odd, but immediately calling him out is likely to just make him stop if he's scum, which then means I can't understand his motivations. I'm also not pocketing Vecna at all. Agreeing with Vecna makes him scumread me, which is something I know will happen.
B3. This is no longer in the quote so I'm not going to bother responding to it. If you'd like to discuss something, please don't snip it. Update: I see you included it. Snipping still considered harmful. To answer, your point still contradicts itself. Both options assume that I am a solver. One argues that I'm scummy for not doing it. One argues that I'm scummy for doing it. Neither option allows me to be town. That doesn't make sense.
B4. I think it is odd that nobody's even answering you, but the fact is that nobody has agreed and almost everyone here has played with me a lot.

[Squigs44]

lurkers so far;
lfischl (keeps being the ONLY lurker to get CONSISTENT wagons on him...but nothing more than being a lurker; WHY ONLY HIM?)
colby (has said some sus stuff, is still a newbie tho, maybe give him more chances?)
ezio (i like his reads and has been getting consistently more active)
yoyozo (starting to suspect)
themadmonarch (is about to get subbed out, no need to kill them now, surely a mafia wouldnt be THIS inactive)
worcecj(said before game began he would for first few days)
demon(high end of the lurkers, just hasnt talked during N2 )

Where did we learn madmonarch is getting subbed?

[sweetandcool]

I think looking at the votes right when the duel announcement happened is a mistake. Assuming Mafia activated the power to kill top two wagons, they would have activated it before the duel announcement (but probably pretty close to the 30 minute deadline).

Consequently at this VC (33 minutes) the power would have already been activated:

6 Dip, 3 lfisch, 3 ghug, 3 Balki

At this point Dip is extremely likely top wagon, Balki has momentum and otherwise maybe lfisch would be 2nd wagon. I don't think anybody would realistically expect ghug to come in 2nd.

IF Mafia activated power at this point, which I don't think, then despite Balki's momentum Mafia felt confident in protecting him, which means lfisch is not Mafia, and ghug is less likely Mafia.

If we look back to the VC at 37 minutes, right before Squig votes Balki and the tidal wave of Balki votes starts:

6 Dip, 5 lfisch, 3 ghug, 2 Jam

It much more strongly suggests lfisch is not Mafia. Jamie's wagon had just fallen apart, but the fact that it did have a good high water mark suggests later on it could still become the main counter wagon. This gives Jamiet some town points but obviously it's not conclusive like lfisch.

One might compare the Flavius wagon from a little earlier to the Jamiet wagon, but one difference is that the Flavius wagon felt like it fell apart due to people changing their minds and town reading him a bit, whereas the Jamiet wagon (temporarily?) fell apart due to not quite having the strength to beat Dip and consequently other flashwagons being attempted.

So really my conclusion is that lfisch looks Town and Jamiet looks kind of good.

[ghug]

So there was something that happened D1 that prickled my nethers and not in a good way.

While I was pushing various wagons to try and get any kind of movement going, I landed on flum. At that time, Flav was on flum, and I felt like Flav immediately started to panic and try to explain a vote no one asked for explanation on.

Real "WHY ARE YOU VOTING HERE THIS IS THE ONLY REASON I AM HERE" vibes. Like getting caught on your scumbuddy vibes. Which now makes sense if it was a scum being pushed up to a TvT

this feels like a moderately towny post. not the type of thing id normally expect scum to come up with.

(i dont really agree with the read but its about the logic used)

I agree that RHK is town. I also agree that RHK's reads suck.

This opinion is the great unifier.

[ghug]

he can still be scum right? PR roles are possible for both factions

lfischl suddenly becoming very active here is interesting. He had posted a rip damo and a vote a few pages prior, but getting involved because his teammate got dueled seems plausible.

Well my theory is that the mafia decided to put their team members into roles one of these roles was the "lurker" kotp doesnt count because he got replace dby Balki and balki was anything BUT a lurker

I have never seen a scumteam play this way.

[ghug]

Stop snipping quotes if you can't do it correctly Jesus Christ

[sweetandcool]

Stop snipping quotes if you can't do it correctly Jesus Christ

I think we should hammer him. It's so easy to read the unquoted bottom of a post. I am not reading a garbled broken quoted post at all.

[sweetandcool]

And if Town activated the power to kill top two wagons they would have thought Dip and lfisch were Mafia, or sniped the duel and thought Balki and Dip were Mafia.

I guess the former is more likely, but I really think Mafia activated the power.

I suppose an ISO on Balki could possibly shed some light.

[sweetandcool]

And if Town activated the power to kill top two wagons they would have thought Dip and lfisch were Mafia, or sniped the duel and thought Balki and Dip were Mafia.

I guess the former is more likely, but I really think Mafia activated the power.

I suppose an ISO on Balki could possibly shed some light.

Actually no, I forgot my assessment of Town motivation. It would be less a matter of thinking top two wagons were scum and more a matter of top two wagons not being Townread.

[FlaviusAetius]

I think the vig is mafia aligned. From a meta perspective it makes sense since the max total players from setup was 23 and we started with 26.

noting the take by yoyo

How is this a nothing take??

This is NOT a nothing take! Yoyozo is supposed to be this mafia veteran and he cant realize that the vigilante is OBVIOUSLY a townie. He's made a huge scumslip here and we need to hold his feet to the fire. Remember theres one lurker who is a mafia, that cant be kotp becaue of Balki, probably not fischl because he's been this great target; I think its yoyozo

[FlaviusAetius]

lurkers so far;
lfischl (keeps being the ONLY lurker to get CONSISTENT wagons on him...but nothing more than being a lurker; WHY ONLY HIM?)
colby (has said some sus stuff, is still a newbie tho, maybe give him more chances?)
ezio (i like his reads and has been getting consistently more active)
yoyozo (starting to suspect)
themadmonarch (is about to get subbed out, no need to kill them now, surely a mafia wouldnt be THIS inactive)
worcecj(said before game began he would for first few days)
demon(high end of the lurkers, just hasnt talked during N2 )

Where did we learn madmonarch is getting subbed?

no where this is my prediction no way he stays in the game after this kind of insane inactivity

[Squigs44]

Flav your insistence that mafia has a designated lurker is super weird

[foodcoats]

I think looking at the votes right when the duel announcement happened is a mistake. Assuming Mafia activated the power to kill top two wagons, they would have activated it before the duel announcement (but probably pretty close to the 30 minute deadline).

Consequently at this VC (33 minutes) the power would have already been activated:

6 Dip, 3 lfisch, 3 ghug, 3 Balki

At this point Dip is extremely likely top wagon, Balki has momentum and otherwise maybe lfisch would be 2nd wagon. I don't think anybody would realistically expect ghug to come in 2nd.

IF Mafia activated power at this point, which I don't think, then despite Balki's momentum Mafia felt confident in protecting him, which means lfisch is not Mafia, and ghug is less likely Mafia.

If we look back to the VC at 37 minutes, right before Squig votes Balki and the tidal wave of Balki votes starts:

6 Dip, 5 lfisch, 3 ghug, 2 Jam

It much more strongly suggests lfisch is not Mafia. Jamie's wagon had just fallen apart, but the fact that it did have a good high water mark suggests later on it could still become the main counter wagon. This gives Jamiet some town points but obviously it's not conclusive like lfisch.

One might compare the Flavius wagon from a little earlier to the Jamiet wagon, but one difference is that the Flavius wagon felt like it fell apart due to people changing their minds and town reading him a bit, whereas the Jamiet wagon (temporarily?) fell apart due to not quite having the strength to beat Dip and consequently other flashwagons being attempted.

So really my conclusion is that lfisch looks Town and Jamiet looks kind of good.

The problem with all this is that the Battlemaster could be town who said "Hee hee! I hit the button!"