M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[Fluminator]

##Vote Jamiet

[FlaviusAetius]

Mia: Hey guys, what is this quest for the Rite of Thorns?

Kyle: The what?

Mia: The one with Locke?

Kyle: Who?

An arrow lets loose

Damo666 has died he was Locke of the Harpers, a Vanilla Town

The fuck?

Oh I see.

Welp.

##VOTE Ezio

Why vote a lurker? Id like a good argument why TODAY is the day we should take a shot in the dark...especially after damo.
@damo idk if you were doing the ridiculous ghug strategy of doing anti-town stuff while town or what but goodness me

[foodcoats]

I think the vig is mafia aligned. From a meta perspective it makes sense since the max total players from setup was 23 and we started with 26.

From a meta perspective it makes no sense whatsoever. Why would mafia shoot a town player who was getting wagoned?

So they can claim vig later. If they shot someone who was clearly town, we’d all know it was a mafia vig. But them shooting Damo in these circumstances doesn’t make sense to me vibe wise. A fake cleared mafia signs worth way more to mafia than a random shot a PR.

This is an interesting idea. Not sure if it means yoyo is scum or town, though.

[Vecna]

S&C is fun to play with

indeed. if hes still fooling me ill be mega butthurt

[foodcoats]

The fuck?

Oh I see.

Welp.

##VOTE Ezio

Why vote a lurker? Id like a good argument why TODAY is the day we should take a shot in the dark...especially after damo.
@damo idk if you were doing the ridiculous ghug strategy of doing anti-town stuff while town or what but goodness me

Later in the game the randomness of voting lurkers is extremely bad. If we want to kill lurkers we have to do it early.

Also, I found Ezio coming in to moan about how it is bad to vote him for lurking and then leaving extremely bad play, so killing him is 100% positive for town even if he is town.

[foodcoats]

##Vote Jamiet

This actually might be right.

[Vecna]

Proof Fox is Mafia:

"What I learned from last game is that your style of play just gets my attention in the wrong way and I need to learn other ways to read you. That's what I meant when I suggested we avoid last game's debacle."

"I mean, it's kind of the same, but I'm the one who has deliberately not scumread you. No offense, something about the way you type in these games makes me think you're scum in my very bones. Thus we had an enormous ongoing battle in the first game we played together. But then I reflected on the experience and learned, and so now I don't use that as the basis for my assessment of you."

can u explain this 1 sweet? im not following

[Vecna]

##Vote Jamiet

This actually might be right.

no shit sherlock

[Jamiet99uk]

I know what you’re getting at, I think it’s better that no one claims vig because that will just mislead people down the line. Better to spell it out here.

So we all agree the vig should not reveal?

Stop it. PRs gunna PR. We don’t have to gain a consensus and advise them.

Strong agree.

[FlaviusAetius]

I like this post from Aaro. It feels like it’s seeking engagement in the right sort of way, while also making a reasonable point.

I left the Flum wagon like seconds after he made that post

It’s weird to be so confident about something we can check. According to the bot, you didn’t switch until 12 minutes before EOD.

Actually I went back and it was 5 mintues when I said I was uncomfortable with so many people voting for Flum where I was open and honest that I didnt have a case against him yet...at that point I was trying to find someone else to vote for went for Dip and then for Damo

[Jamiet99uk]

I don’t think we need to analyze this unless and until somebody claims this shot and explains why they took it, right?

More or less. I am analyzing this to show that the vig should not reveal.

Why is balki pushing for a vig reveal?/

Do you think he is?

[Vecna]

Yea Dousing is absolutely town.
##Vote Ghug. How are you reading this guy and thinking he's mafia?

a good ezio post!

[sweetandcool]

I would like to note: my first reaction to this was “Sweet is way too confident in this take.” But then I remembered back to our first game together.

This game is hard.

Will you just tell me your alignment please?

damo is not LHF. damo is in the category of people that there is general meta resistance to killing D1 or D2.

I think this is the third consecutive game I’ve played here. I think that Damo and HamiltonBrian were leading Day 1 wagons and serious contenders for the flip in all three?

It’s uncanny.

There's a reason I'm almost always defending them. Ham, damo, and sweetandcool have made up like 90% of the D1 wagons the last 10ish games.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

Update on mech/setup:
There are, surprisingly, only two vig PRs. One is a janitor, the other is a 2-shot. As damo was not janitored, we can assume that the vig still has a shot left. Take that how you will.

Why are you suddenly being obsessed with the mechanics?

I happen to be one of very few players who actually read the setup.

[FlaviusAetius]

Oh I see.

Welp.

##VOTE Ezio

Why vote a lurker? Id like a good argument why TODAY is the day we should take a shot in the dark...especially after damo.
@damo idk if you were doing the ridiculous ghug strategy of doing anti-town stuff while town or what but goodness me

Later in the game the randomness of voting lurkers is extremely bad. If we want to kill lurkers we have to do it early.

Also, I found Ezio coming in to moan about how it is bad to vote him for lurking and then leaving extremely bad play, so killing him is 100% positive for town even if he is town.

Why cant we just force Ezio to actually play the game ugh we should not accept him holding us hostage like this

[Jamiet99uk]

##Vote Jamiet

Incorrect.

[Jamiet99uk]

##Vote Jamiet

This actually might be right.

Incorrect.

[Vecna]

@Vecna, engage with me plz.

I will, but im already playing too much atm.

Also, you replaced into the kotp slot which was playing a carbon copy of their scumgame from last game, and replaced out. Youre gonna have to deal with a hefty dose of suspicion.

[sweetandcool]

Proof Fox is Mafia:

"What I learned from last game is that your style of play just gets my attention in the wrong way and I need to learn other ways to read you. That's what I meant when I suggested we avoid last game's debacle."

"I mean, it's kind of the same, but I'm the one who has deliberately not scumread you. No offense, something about the way you type in these games makes me think you're scum in my very bones. Thus we had an enormous ongoing battle in the first game we played together. But then I reflected on the experience and learned, and so now I don't use that as the basis for my assessment of you."

can u explain this 1 sweet? im not following

As you can see, both things are the same. The first quote comes from scum Fox, trying to stay off of sweetandcool's radar. The second quote is from this game. Fox is Mafia, das ist klar.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

I'm going to take just a moment to make it clear PRs should not reveal unless they have a very good reason:
Case 1: PRs are scum
There are currently 24 living players: 14 VT, 5 town PRs, 3 scum PRs, 2 goons. 8 are PRs, 16 are not.
3/8 PRs are scum, so a PR has a 3/8 chance to be scum.
2/16 non-PRs are scum, so a non-PR has a 1/8 chance to be scum.
5/24 players are scum, so someone who hasn't been specified as either PR or not PR has a 5/24, or roughly 1/5, chance to be scum.
Therefore, anyone who claims PR is more likely to be scum than someone who doesn't. Therefore, town PRs should not claim PR.
Case 2: We need our PRs
This setup is, unfortunately, very swingy. There are roles like Arcane Trickster, Bardic Inspiration, and Wild Magic that are very weak as town and very strong as scum, roles like Light Cleric/Enchantment (alignment cop) and Unarmored Defense Barbarian hat are good for town but weak as scum. This setup has a potential to get very out of hand if mafia have strong PRs. Don't reveal just to make a point.
Case 3: The Tadpole Problem
For those of you who didn't read the setup, the mafia can once per game instead of nightkilling during the night give a town player a tadpole. That player will then have to choose whether to accept and become mafia (keeping any PR abilities they might have) or deny the recruitment. Mafia must use this ability during one of the first 4 nights.
Mafia will probably want to recruit a PR who is at least mostly towncleared. Revealing PR might seem like a great oppurtunity to get recruited. However, having revealed you are a PR, town will know you are a PR and therefore a potential recruitment target. Daykilling you would be pointless because we couldn't be certain you had been recruited. As a result, you might simply be ignored for the rest of the game.
Let this be a cautionary tale. Do not reveal PR unless you have a VERY GOOD reason.

What made you decide to post this?

Did you suddenly become afraid we were all going to start mass-claiming?

If you're asking if it was related to damo dying, no. I wrote that before finding out damo died.
I was a bit concerned about PR reveals considering the swingy setup. A bucket would be terrible for town.