M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[Squigs44]

I'm scared at how much Bona has been in my blindspot. I think I've scumread them every game I've played them due to playstyle clashes

[Vecna]

<snip>
It's the power of spreadsheets, guaranteed

Thanks for the giggle

it was probably a serious answer. the game result spreadsheet would be the easiest way to find the games they both played.

[DemonRHK]

D&W
Balki
flum and/or flav

There's half the game solved

Demon just townslipped because he doesn’t know how many wolves there are!

I mean, there's 5 from everyone else has been saying. I'm just not one of those assholes to be like

"UM ACKUALLY, it's 60% solved sir."
*Pushes up glasses*

Half rolls of the fingers better

[Foxcastle]

While Balki is just one vote on me, I'm taking my time to lay this out because Balki has a long history of railroading me. He scumreads me almost every time, he has never actually townread me, and he has been wrong every fucking time except one. So it's disappointing to see that he has learned nothing and is back for yet another round of "scumread Fox no matter what."

NB: I've snipped several quotes from previous games to keep this focused.

M34 - Balki is sure I'm scum (hooker, to be specific). I survive to the end of game to win as town: https://mafia.peterlund.se/m34/game_status.html

Foxy is Hooker. He is. I can feel it in my bones.

I’d order the lynch priority like this: Foxy, Flum, Vashta, rdrivera. Obviously cop scans can change that.

mM36 - Balki reads me as town conditional on another player's alignment.

I wouldn't lynch Foxcastle today, because the read is entirely derivative of RagingIke's alignment. But if it turns out that RagingIke is Town, then Flxcastle is probably scum.

See the whole thing here: http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?user=Balki*&word=Fox*&g=36

M1006 - Balki scumreads me. And I'm scum! But it's the exact same thing he says about me every time.

I mean...what did he even just say? Like, nothing. Nothing!

But he wrote a whole bunch of words, and he wrote about people who voted for other people so...so what?

EFFORT TO BLEND!

More Nothingness! Empty Void!

Kind of like a big, long, empty FOXHOLE!

Foxcastle is not content to be seen as doing nothing. He is putting in effort to be seen as doing something that looks vaguely like scum hunting. He's just not doing a great job at manufacturing a real process.

M46 Balki is scum, and he scum reads me. I flip town. But it's the same shit.

##vote Foxcastle

That's where my head is right now. Though, I am not at all confident. And I have not ISOed Fox, and I need to do that. But here are the impressions in my mind:

Fox has been sitting back, cracking jokes all the time, super chill. He has sprinkled in comments. He's been around. But he has not been taking stands. Most of his reads have been about gathering information or enforcing policies. He has not taken a stand on anything likely to get pushback. He has not made any scumread on an experienced player who would put him in the spotlight.

He's playing to avoid confrontation.

I made a similar read on him for similar reasons the last time we played together, and I was right at that time. I feel like he may be scum again here.

M54 Balki scum reads me. I flip town.

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?user=Balki*&word=Fox*&g=54

BALKI AND I HAVE PLAYED 5 GAMES TOGETHER. HE HAS NEVER TOWN READ ME. HE HAS CORRECTLY SCUMREAD ME ONE TIME.

HE HAS CONSISTENTLY USED THE SAME ARGUMENTS AGAINST ME THAT HE'S USING HERE. AND HE HAS BEEN WRONG EVERY TIME EXCEPT ONCE.

what was the alignment split? why arent you suspicious it comes from a scum balki conforming to easy patterns?

relatively often when people bite back with "you were wrong this often in the past" without considering alignment of the current push its defensive scum failing the TMI clause.

I note the one time that Balki is scum, he's town in the other games.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

Mafia vig*

I don’t think we need to analyze this unless and until somebody claims this shot and explains why they took it, right?

More or less. I am analyzing this to show that the vig should not reveal.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

D&W
Balki
flum and/or flav

There's half the game solved

Glad you've decided to bus Balki.

[Balki Bartokomous]

D&W
Balki
flum and/or flav

There's half the game solved

Demon just townslipped because he doesn’t know how many wolves there are!

I mean, there's 5 from everyone else has been saying. I'm just not one of those assholes to be like

"UM ACKUALLY, it's 60% solved sir."
*Pushes up glasses*

Half rolls of the fingers better

[Yoyoyozo]

I think the vig is mafia aligned. From a meta perspective it makes sense since the max total players from setup was 23 and we started with 26.

Why would they shoot Damo if he was likely to be miskilled anyway? I don't understand your point about max players?

I know what you’re getting at, I think it’s better that no one claims vig because that will just mislead people down the line. Better to spell it out here.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

I think the vig is mafia aligned. From a meta perspective it makes sense since the max total players from setup was 23 and we started with 26.

Why would they shoot Damo if he was likely to be miskilled anyway? I don't understand your point about max players?

I know what you’re getting at, I think it’s better that no one claims vig because that will just mislead people down the line. Better to spell it out here.

So we all agree the vig should not reveal?

[Balki Bartokomous]

<snip>
It's the power of spreadsheets, guaranteed

Thanks for the giggle

it was probably a serious answer. the game result spreadsheet would be the easiest way to find the games they both played.

Is this a thing that is public? I would like to see that thing.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Why would they shoot Damo if he was likely to be miskilled anyway? I don't understand your point about max players?

I know what you’re getting at, I think it’s better that no one claims vig because that will just mislead people down the line. Better to spell it out here.

So we all agree the vig should not reveal?

Stop it. PRs gunna PR. We don’t have to gain a consensus and advise them.

[DemonRHK]

D&W
Balki
flum and/or flav

There's half the game solved

Glad you've decided to bus Balki.

SwingTheSubs is bog standard Demon play.
It's an absolute filthy meta based borderline unsporting strat, but it's effective.

Also, yo momma was a wjessop multi

[Foxcastle]

I want to hear from Fox, Balki, ghug, and Ezio

What do you want to hear?

[Balki Bartokomous]

D&W
Balki
flum and/or flav

There's half the game solved

Glad you've decided to bus Balki.

I find your confidence in this take surprising. You really think I’m a wolf? Why?

[Squigs44]

Thanks for the giggle

it was probably a serious answer. the game result spreadsheet would be the easiest way to find the games they both played.

Is this a thing that is public? I would like to see that thing.

There's one linked on the bot but I heard the owner/maintainer is kinda lazy and so it doesn't have the last few years worth of data

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

D&W
Balki
flum and/or flav

There's half the game solved

Demon just townslipped because he doesn’t know how many wolves there are!

Stop with the townslips. That is 3 maf which is (rounded) half of the 5 person maf team

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Mafia vig*

I don’t think we need to analyze this unless and until somebody claims this shot and explains why they took it, right?

More or less. I am analyzing this to show that the vig should not reveal.

Why is balki pushing for a vig reveal?/

[Foxcastle]

Up to page 93. I think Flav is town and Vecna is possibly scum.

did you already feel this way during d1? when/where did you start feeling this way?

I have felt good about Flav being town from early on, yes. That is specifically a reaction to the pages between when I last posted prior to page 93 and page 93.

[Vecna]

He honestly left out the most important piece of that - what was Balki’s role when he did it. If he was scum even two of the times fox is citing, that gives him a 1/3 success rate at railroading which is honestly higher than most people can claim.

I feel like your argument has merit, but I'm not quite sure what you're getting at?

Do you think you can rephrase your argument so I can help to understand you?

Tldr, I think fox’s argument reduces to “Balki has railroaded me every game we’ve played and he wasn’t always right”.

The math I was getting at was that I want to know P(Balki is correct | Balki’s is town) and P(Balki is correct | Balki is scum) where “correct” is just about the fox railroad. The two extreme situations paint very different pictures.

All of that said, fox just sounds frustrating and I take it as NAI (both Balki’s railroading and fox’s post). The only thing that feels like a takeaway is that I think it’s unlikely to be manufactured frustration, which means that I doubt they’re both scum together (so either they’re both town or one is scum). I guess someone can add that to a spreadsheet somewhere.

unless its manufactured both ways.

some silly plan made during the night and refined in their fancy daychat.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I don’t think we need to analyze this unless and until somebody claims this shot and explains why they took it, right?

More or less. I am analyzing this to show that the vig should not reveal.

Why is balki pushing for a vig reveal?/

What on Earth?