M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[Dousing]

What you did and what foxcastle did are *polar opposites*

Foxcastle brought up FIVE different examples of Balki scumreading Foxcastle

You did the equivalent of "we were wolves man..."

He honestly left out the most important piece of that - what was Balki’s role when he did it. If he was scum even two of the times fox is citing, that gives him a 1/3 success rate at railroading which is honestly higher than most people can claim.

I feel like your argument has merit, but I'm not quite sure what you're getting at?

Do you think you can rephrase your argument so I can help to understand you?

[aarodactyl]

Flavius was fine D1? Also you're admitting that N1 and D2 flavius is fine wich makes me question the purpose of you scumreading Flavius

He wasn’t fine like 30-60 minutes before eod1. Also I probably scumlean him at most. I don’t have any strong scumreads at this point (and I think anyone that does is likely overconfident considering how early it is in the game)

Ahh, good point. I wasn't there for EoD 1 so that might be the root cause of this misunderstanding.

I'll try to ISO flavius to see if what you're saying is true. Regardless, if you want an anti-flavius wagon to work you should probably bring more evidence than "remember how wEiRd Flavius acted at EoD?"

I don’t feel strongly enough about it push a wagon right now. Bunny just asked who my strongly scum lean was. I’ve also only had 1 full day off work since may 20th, so I honestly don’t have the energy to do so either.

[sweetandcool]

*Scissors Emoji*

I townlean you.

Why, this doesn't seem like town foxy just I-don't-want-to-be-a-wagon-foxy

(sorry for dismissing you foxcastle I know you took a lot of effort to cook like you did. However, at the end of the day, I have to play for the town and not for my feelings.)

That being said, there are two wrong things with this.

1. This is old history.
2. At best it shows Balki has a tunnel on you, it tells us nothing of his alignment this game.

1. You call it "old history" I call it a prior record. I feel like a lawyer should see it that way to :p.

2. it tells us that Balki's observations RE: foxcaslte are unreliable *regardless* of Balki's alignment

Sooooo, this must mean you haven't seen an argument all game.

[Dousing]

*Snipped to prevent spam*

Foxcastle cooked and made the best argument I've seen this game so far.

I *wish* I could reward Fox's efforts by townreading him but this seems more like annoyance/self-preservation rather than townie behavior; scum Foxcastle and town foxcastle could've made this post.

His argument is that Balki is Mafia because Balki always* tunnels him?

That's the best argument you've seen?

No his argument is that Balki is unreliable, which is similar but still notably different from calling him maf

Also, just based on the effort that must've taken to gather up all that evidence, yes.

[sweetandcool]

Foxcastle cooked and made the best argument I've seen this game so far.

I *wish* I could reward Fox's efforts by townreading him but this seems more like annoyance/self-preservation rather than townie behavior; scum Foxcastle and town foxcastle could've made this post.

His argument is that Balki is Mafia because Balki always* tunnels him?

That's the best argument you've seen?

No his argument is that Balki is unreliable, which is similar but still notably different from calling him maf

Also, just based on the effort that must've taken to gather up all that evidence, yes.

I think he just had it in his grudge folder.

I wanna tunnel Fox just to see him give me the same treatment.

[sweetandcool]

##VOTE Fox

[Foxcastle]

*Snipped to prevent spam*

Foxcastle cooked and made the best argument I've seen this game so far.

I *wish* I could reward Fox's efforts by townreading him but this seems more like annoyance/self-preservation rather than townie behavior; scum Foxcastle and town foxcastle could've made this post.

Pretty much, yeah. It's self preservation because Balki is very capable of railroading other players. I think everyone should know that his record on that is pretty bad, though.

[Bonatogether]

Everyone had to take a posistion during D1 by voting...those who didnt should be #1 suspects but there is probably one mafia in that, since there were so few, only 5 one vote wagons(besides kingofpirates)

i mean there was vast spew. i swear on every damn wagon there were like 3 people saying 'what's the case? what's the case? i haven't seen a case made!' over and over and over.

If you voted for someone without understanding the case behind them, then that might be one of the most anti-town things Ive ever heard

did i say i did? i stand by my votes

[FlaviusAetius]

Assume he's right about my meta. Explain in your own words why you think the argument is validm

If he's right about your meta, then you taking a big role D1 makes you an obv mafia. Kak says your meta as a town is to be mysterious and nebluous whereas here you were insistent you were a town and acting as one of the biggest solvers there ever was with Vecna. This makes me think you were a townie, except for that weird wanna buddy up to solve the game, I can look past that, but according to Kak that is not you. Also he pointed out something I completely missed;
"Ghug's intend to 'try not to solve until day 4' is just atrocious and I doubt town ghug would ever feel that way."

So either your a big solver and thats unlike your town meta
Or you are a solver, and you all of a sudden dont want to solve until day 4

Either way super sus, and Im surprised no one else is paying attention to anything Kak is saying. As I explained, Im not sure Kak is right about Dip or Flum, but everything he pointed out would all line right on you guys as a team, if you were all mafia.

Well, first off, I think you took mysterious to mean quiet, which is not the case. I'm always loud. Kak is right that I work harder to be townread when I'm scum, but it's more that I say shit when I'm town that's not designed to look good.

Beyond that, though this isn't logically coherent.

For one, I never said I wanted to solve the game with Vecna. For two, you're acknowledging yourself that I said something that you and Kak both found scummy, which runs against the idea that I'm playing to be townread. For three, the entire basis of his own argument is that I'm openly insisting I'm town, which isn't something that regularly garners townreads.

It feels like you're just trying to jump on a shitty argument that you can wash your hands of by blaming Kak when you're wrong. I do not get the sense that you're applying serious consideration here.

What on earth are you talking about?
"I say stuff not designed to look good" when you are TOWN!?! That defeats the whole purpose of being a townie and is anti-town at best, you are just confusing everyone and inviting townies to suspect you and then be suspected for suspecting you over totally reasonable stuff. No what Kak meant was that you tried to stay NAI as a townie...not that you ACTIVELY tried to do stuff that was anti-town.

You and Vecna were being buddy buddy about solving the game, and I put a stop to that real quick by saying no you guys should try to solve the game independently, that would tell us a lot more than some random team up.

You saying this scummy thing is exactly the contradiction I put forward that you did
"So either your a big solver and thats unlike your town meta
Or you are a solver, and you all of a sudden dont want to solve until day 4"

Either way doesn't look good. His entire basis for town is threefolded, one you fit well into the team, and two you are going against your meta when you are a townie, and three(one that Im putting together) you are acting like a big solver, but then all of a sudden dont want to solve the game, that you havent answered for. I dont like that no one else here is paying attention to what Kak is saying but to the @Dip voters;

Ghug and Flum tell us a lot more about Kak's team than Dip does.

[FlaviusAetius]

i mean there was vast spew. i swear on every damn wagon there were like 3 people saying 'what's the case? what's the case? i haven't seen a case made!' over and over and over.

If you voted for someone without understanding the case behind them, then that might be one of the most anti-town things Ive ever heard

did i say i did? i stand by my votes

Im saying people asking whats the case is a GOOD thing, not a BAD thing.

[Foxcastle]

While Balki is just one vote on me, I'm taking my time to lay this out because Balki has a long history of railroading me. He scumreads me almost every time, he has never actually townread me, and he has been wrong every fucking time except one. So it's disappointing to see that he has learned nothing and is back for yet another round of "scumread Fox no matter what."

NB: I've snipped several quotes from previous games to keep this focused.

M34 - Balki is sure I'm scum (hooker, to be specific). I survive to the end of game to win as town: https://mafia.peterlund.se/m34/game_status.html

Foxy is Hooker. He is. I can feel it in my bones.

I’d order the lynch priority like this: Foxy, Flum, Vashta, rdrivera. Obviously cop scans can change that.

mM36 - Balki reads me as town conditional on another player's alignment.

I wouldn't lynch Foxcastle today, because the read is entirely derivative of RagingIke's alignment. But if it turns out that RagingIke is Town, then Flxcastle is probably scum.

See the whole thing here: http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?user=Balki*&word=Fox*&g=36

M1006 - Balki scumreads me. And I'm scum! But it's the exact same thing he says about me every time.

I mean...what did he even just say? Like, nothing. Nothing!

But he wrote a whole bunch of words, and he wrote about people who voted for other people so...so what?

EFFORT TO BLEND!

More Nothingness! Empty Void!

Kind of like a big, long, empty FOXHOLE!

Foxcastle is not content to be seen as doing nothing. He is putting in effort to be seen as doing something that looks vaguely like scum hunting. He's just not doing a great job at manufacturing a real process.

M46 Balki is scum, and he scum reads me. I flip town. But it's the same shit.

##vote Foxcastle

That's where my head is right now. Though, I am not at all confident. And I have not ISOed Fox, and I need to do that. But here are the impressions in my mind:

Fox has been sitting back, cracking jokes all the time, super chill. He has sprinkled in comments. He's been around. But he has not been taking stands. Most of his reads have been about gathering information or enforcing policies. He has not taken a stand on anything likely to get pushback. He has not made any scumread on an experienced player who would put him in the spotlight.

He's playing to avoid confrontation.

I made a similar read on him for similar reasons the last time we played together, and I was right at that time. I feel like he may be scum again here.

M54 Balki scum reads me. I flip town.

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?user=Balki*&word=Fox*&g=54

BALKI AND I HAVE PLAYED 5 GAMES TOGETHER. HE HAS NEVER TOWN READ ME. HE HAS CORRECTLY SCUMREAD ME ONE TIME.

HE HAS CONSISTENTLY USED THE SAME ARGUMENTS AGAINST ME THAT HE'S USING HERE. AND HE HAS BEEN WRONG EVERY TIME EXCEPT ONCE.

I townlean you.

That being said, there are two wrong things with this.

1. This is old history.
2. At best it shows Balki has a tunnel on you, it tells us nothing of his alignment this game.

1. This is the complete history.
2. It shows you that his read on me can't be taken seriously, and if you want to properly read me, you should know that.

[Dousing]

I townlean you.

Why, this doesn't seem like town foxy just I-don't-want-to-be-a-wagon-foxy

(sorry for dismissing you foxcastle I know you took a lot of effort to cook like you did. However, at the end of the day, I have to play for the town and not for my feelings.)

That being said, there are two wrong things with this.

1. This is old history.
2. At best it shows Balki has a tunnel on you, it tells us nothing of his alignment this game.

1. You call it "old history" I call it a prior record. I feel like a lawyer should see it that way to :p.

2. it tells us that Balki's observations RE: foxcaslte are unreliable *regardless* of Balki's alignment

Sooooo, this must mean you haven't seen an argument all game.

Your response is completely unrelated to my point above.

Literally, I don't know what you mean by "I haven't seen an argument all game"

- What does this have to do with how I wouldn't townread foxy for his argument?
- What does this have to do with how I don't see Foxy's evidence as "Old history?"
- What does this have to do with Foxy's point that Balki's observations RE: Foxy are unreliable?

[FlaviusAetius]

He wasn’t fine like 30-60 minutes before eod1. Also I probably scumlean him at most. I don’t have any strong scumreads at this point (and I think anyone that does is likely overconfident considering how early it is in the game)

Ahh, good point. I wasn't there for EoD 1 so that might be the root cause of this misunderstanding.

I'll try to ISO flavius to see if what you're saying is true. Regardless, if you want an anti-flavius wagon to work you should probably bring more evidence than "remember how wEiRd Flavius acted at EoD?"

I don’t feel strongly enough about it push a wagon right now. Bunny just asked who my strongly scum lean was. I’ve also only had 1 full day off work since may 20th, so I honestly don’t have the energy to do so either.

??? How did I act weird during EOD, you werent THERE for it and voted me anyways. You and Will were part of the reason the flash wagon even happened, two people who voted me and werent there for the end of the day to even defend your vote. It made me a viable wagon without bringing in evidence...

[aarodactyl]

What you did and what foxcastle did are *polar opposites*

Foxcastle brought up FIVE different examples of Balki scumreading Foxcastle

You did the equivalent of "we were wolves man..."

He honestly left out the most important piece of that - what was Balki’s role when he did it. If he was scum even two of the times fox is citing, that gives him a 1/3 success rate at railroading which is honestly higher than most people can claim.

I feel like your argument has merit, but I'm not quite sure what you're getting at?

Do you think you can rephrase your argument so I can help to understand you?

Tldr, I think fox’s argument reduces to “Balki has railroaded me every game we’ve played and he wasn’t always right”.

The math I was getting at was that I want to know P(Balki is correct | Balki’s is town) and P(Balki is correct | Balki is scum) where “correct” is just about the fox railroad. The two extreme situations paint very different pictures.

All of that said, fox just sounds frustrating and I take it as NAI (both Balki’s railroading and fox’s post). The only thing that feels like a takeaway is that I think it’s unlikely to be manufactured frustration, which means that I doubt they’re both scum together (so either they’re both town or one is scum). I guess someone can add that to a spreadsheet somewhere.

[Foxcastle]

To quote yourself:



*quotes snipped for readability

What you did and what foxcastle did are *polar opposites*

Foxcastle brought up FIVE different examples of Balki scumreading Foxcastle

You did the equivalent of "we were wolves man..."

He honestly left out the most important piece of that - what was Balki’s role when he did it. If he was scum even two of the times fox is citing, that gives him a 1/3 success rate at railroading which is honestly higher than most people can claim.

I noted the one time Balki was scum.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Foxcastle, u mad bro?

I’d prefer for you to address my arguments on their face rather than take us through a history lesson. I do recall catching you as scum one time some years ago. I don’t recall whether I have read you as scum more than I’ve read other players as scum in the other games we’ve played together. Were any of the games you’ve quoted played in the last like, three years? Were there other times in those same games when I read you as Town? It’s been a long time…

I’m happy to be wrong about my read on you here. But the thing you wrote is much more of a distraction than a way to engage with me.

Please talk about your votes in this game. They seem very low impact and low risk. Do you see what I mean about that? What do you think your votes say about your alignment? And I don’t think you engaged with me at all until I voted for you. Why is that?

You also launched into this red-font response after I made what…one or two posts about you? Why not let it marinate? Why do you think you are acting so aggressively defensive in this way?

[FlaviusAetius]

Indeed

You two are hopeless

If only you would learn to work together, a new golden era of WebDip Mafia would emerge.

##vote sweet, this saccharine helpfulness while doing nothing and sounding weird is finally enough

sweet has helped a bunch, everyone here has had moments where they've made comments not directly related to the actual game, but that is one in a sea of comments that do, its not reasoning that person is mafia

[FlaviusAetius]

I see there is this big FoxCastle argument, and I would like to see results from FoxCastle's spreadsheet before any suspicions are laid upon him, I think it'll tell us a lot. But I think its about time we recieved them. @FoxCastle?

[Squigs44]

In case my point about Balki v Fox wasn't clear:

I don't care much that Balki has a history of tunneling Fox. I care more about if Balkis case in this game is credible. People are reacting to Fox's defense but not saying much about Balkis original case which worries me

[Foxcastle]

His argument is that Balki is Mafia because Balki always* tunnels him?

That's the best argument you've seen?

No his argument is that Balki is unreliable, which is similar but still notably different from calling him maf

Also, just based on the effort that must've taken to gather up all that evidence, yes.

I think he just had it in his grudge folder.

I wanna tunnel Fox just to see him give me the same treatment.

I mean, it's kind of the same, but I'm the one who has deliberately not scumread you. No offense, something about the way you type in these games makes me think you're scum in my very bones. Thus we had an enormous ongoing battle in the first game we played together. But then I reflected on the experience and learned, and so now I don't use that as the basis for my assessment of you.