M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[BunnyGo]

##unvote

Forgot that the votes can be frozen and only unvoted people are free to place a vote.

[sweetandcool]

damn...this is your first post where I actually hear "sweet" talking.

ok...the first two fishy and ezio seem clear enough.

Sell me on flavius or Flum, your choice. I'm not seeing either yet.

That would require VCA that I haven't done and may never really do. Simply if they were to flip Mafia, then that might give us a bit to work with since Flavius was almost flash wagoned and Flum had a dedicated few after him D1.

Suppose Flum flips Mafia. Then you can decide if sweetandcool and/Flavius were bussing. And possibly connections from there. Or if we flip Flavius and they are Mafia then we can assess the flashwagon and if it was also bussing or if any movements went to saving them, etc.

Yeah, I don't have an argument for them being Mafia. But they are better than damo or Dip.

why them? why not aaro, jamie, balki, yoyo, demon, bunny, col7by, fox, ghug, bona, etc?

They weren't wagons, so I can't immediately assess the implications of a flip without multiple ISO. Which is more work.

But if you or someone else provides a compelling case for one of those players then I am all ears.

[sweetandcool]

So you're claiming that you were making posts 20+ mins after deadline without having read the flip, and happened to only respond to 2 comments, both of which were from the flipped townie?

Correct. I really didn't expect Kak to be the NK because he was determined to drive a MK today.

How did you know you weren't the flip?

No little red PM alert.

[sweetandcool]

Correct. I really didn't expect Kak to be the NK because he was determined to drive a MK today.

How did you know you weren't the flip?

No little red PM alert.

And I was on Discord chatting in the main Mafia server, figured I would get a PM if I was dead with an invite to the GT.

[BunnyGo]

I think Squigs is Town, by the way. He is my first town read!

I agree with that unless fisch is town then squigs is my top scum read

wait, what?

that needs more explanation

[BunnyGo]

Correct. I really didn't expect Kak to be the NK because he was determined to drive a MK today.

How did you know you weren't the flip?

No little red PM alert.

when? It only happens when you refresh the page.

So...you refreshed the page after night end. Looked up at the red alert missing...and just kept going?

[BunnyGo]

That would require VCA that I haven't done and may never really do. Simply if they were to flip Mafia, then that might give us a bit to work with since Flavius was almost flash wagoned and Flum had a dedicated few after him D1.

Suppose Flum flips Mafia. Then you can decide if sweetandcool and/Flavius were bussing. And possibly connections from there. Or if we flip Flavius and they are Mafia then we can assess the flashwagon and if it was also bussing or if any movements went to saving them, etc.

Yeah, I don't have an argument for them being Mafia. But they are better than damo or Dip.

why them? why not aaro, jamie, balki, yoyo, demon, bunny, col7by, fox, ghug, bona, etc?

They weren't wagons, so I can't immediately assess the implications of a flip without multiple ISO. Which is more work.

But if you or someone else provides a compelling case for one of those players then I am all ears.

So all of your desire for votes today is to vote anyone who was voted yesterday at some point to do VCA?

[sweetandcool]

How did you know you weren't the flip?

No little red PM alert.

when? It only happens when you refresh the page.

So...you refreshed the page after night end. Looked up at the red alert missing...and just kept going?

Absolutely. I was still catching up. Like a page or two.

[BunnyGo]

It's time to start consolidating wagons.

##vote lfischl

5-4-4 seems a nice high info split

##Vote lfischl

This post seems both poorly justified and gratuitously explained.

Wolf!DemonRHK

This voting tracks with what I remember of the spawn of satan from previous games as town.

[sweetandcool]

why them? why not aaro, jamie, balki, yoyo, demon, bunny, col7by, fox, ghug, bona, etc?

They weren't wagons, so I can't immediately assess the implications of a flip without multiple ISO. Which is more work.

But if you or someone else provides a compelling case for one of those players then I am all ears.

So all of your desire for votes today is to vote anyone who was voted yesterday at some point to do VCA?

No, not exactly. I just currently know approximately what we will get from yesterday's wagons. I am unsure how valuable a different candidate would be.

I must assess. Which isn't likely. I mainly have people I don't want to see voted.

No vote: damo, Dip, Vecna.

Most others I would be okay with, particularly over these players.

[BunnyGo]

SnC is town this game.
D&W is probably also town this game.

I think Flum is probably town.
I think Ghug is probably town.

I think Damo is bad, but I can't tell if he's scummy.

I wish I had voted nokill day 1.

Ok, solid takes.

Can you sell me on Flum or ghug being town?

[Col7by]

I think Squigs is Town, by the way. He is my first town read!

I agree with that unless fisch is town then squigs is my top scum read

wait, what?

that needs more explanation

I presume you are still catching up I have an explanation soon after

[BunnyGo]

5-4-4 seems a nice high info split

##Vote lfischl

This post seems both poorly justified and gratuitously explained.

Wolf!DemonRHK

Yep. Wanting movement for the sake of analysis.

Surely, a mastermind scum ideology.

PSA: voting END as a way to bold and italicize your vote is not as cool as you think it is.

Counterpoint:

Well...I'm sold...

##end

[BunnyGo]

I agree with that unless fisch is town then squigs is my top scum read

wait, what?

that needs more explanation

I presume you are still catching up I have an explanation soon after

Yup, but happy to chat in real time when i'm back here.

AMA

[BunnyGo]

No. But it's the single fact I am most confident in in this game.

Dip must be Town.

This push against Dip is highly suspicious.

I don't really scumread Dip, but a lot of people do. Kak has played scum with Dip before, and we know he was town. So why are you so focused on Kak's scumming of Dip in particular?

Because he was wrong, and now people are weirdly sheeping an incorrect read.

I think I'll be sick if we vote Dip. And if people turn on me for defending him then at least I will be out of game and not have to suffer this travesty.

You keep saying you know Dip is town. With such flourish and viv.

Sell me on it with a point.

[BunnyGo]

As a heads up: it's pretty easy to ask me to talk. Ask me a question.
Wasting time saying "ooh we need Ezio to say stuff" and then voting me is dumb.
I'm posting stuff b/c I don't want y'all to waste more time on this slot than you already have.

With phases being only 24 hours, things go crazy quickly, and I don't think we have too much time to sit around with nonsense.

Which players in this crazy game are still registering as null to you?

What's your theory on the 3-5 viable wagons at EOD1 (HB, damo, flav, flum, Dip). All town? Some scum? Mostly scum?

[Dousing]

Sup guys *insert comment about how work/a spouse/children are the reason why I'm not so active"

I just sifted past like 30+ pages and I have a few thoughts.

Kak's death (I'm gonna use Vecna's scenarios bc I like how their organized but I won't quote them individually bc that'd take too much time)

1: mafis killed kak because he was on point too much

- Quite frankly, I don't think this is probable. If D&W is mafia (and I was part of the mafia) I'd rather just assume that town will eventually kill D&W. I'd be more likely to spend my time helping other teammates instead of righting a sinking ship

One caveat: Mafia is *REALLY* unlikely to have seen Kak's megapost prior to killing him. Then again, Kak was already trying to torpedo D&W prior to this.


2: mafia killed him as a distraction to lock in reads thstllblead us astray


This seems likely. It's fairly basic logic and for the sake of brevity I'll just say The proof is left as an exercise for the reader.

One caveat: This would imply that D&W is town. tbh, that could be possible. I don't have a clear opinion on D&W yet. Gimme a bit and I'll say smt about this. If not, someone remind me if I break this promise.

3; mafia needed a distraction/reason why high profile person x isnt gonna be dead for a while

Good chance of this, helps that Kak was really useful for the town & nobody was really suspicious of them.

I wonder who the mafia would've killed instead of Kak though? I think this is an interesting enough question that I'll put it in a separate post so people don't overlook it

4; any mix of the above, with the feelibg that noone was really suspicious of kak?

I think 1 and 2 are mutually incompatible (is that an oxymoron?).

5. shot at a PR

Maybe, but kak wouldn't have been high on my "likely PR role" list

[Foxcastle]

I'm back on page 84 and need to catch up. I'm on a visit home to see family, so much of my day has been traveling around seeing people (same yesterday for EOD). However, I have seen that Balki is voting me, and I'm going to address that shortly.

[sweetandcool]

I don't really scumread Dip, but a lot of people do. Kak has played scum with Dip before, and we know he was town. So why are you so focused on Kak's scumming of Dip in particular?

Because he was wrong, and now people are weirdly sheeping an incorrect read.

I think I'll be sick if we vote Dip. And if people turn on me for defending him then at least I will be out of game and not have to suffer this travesty.

You keep saying you know Dip is town. With such flourish and viv.

Sell me on it with a point.

Read my N1 ISO, I'm not retyping it again.

[Dousing]

Sweet is confusing me, they seem like their throwing. Admittedly, they said they'd do as much in the signup thread. Either way it's kinda tainting their arguments in an undue negative light.

For example, I really like what they said about Bunny (http://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=406327#p406327) but then they start voting for a dead Kak???

To use a terrible analogy: Sweet is kinda like the Kanye West of this game thread.