M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[Foxcastle]

Update:
I tried to make a spreadsheet. The idea lasted about two minutes until I gave up. I am bad at spreadsheets.

Some helpful hints:

The point is to create a Process of Elimination (POE) machine. List out every possible scum team, and then find ways to eliminate (or downgrade the likelihood) teams. So you can now eliminate all teams with HB. Once we flip scum, you can eliminate all teams that do not include that person.

Identifying pairs that cannot be scum together is the best way to eliminate (or downgrade) teams from consideration. You can also do triplets, but that's slower going (but definitely useful with a 5-person mafia team).

SUMPRODUCT and COUNTIF are your friends, and be ready for nested statements (mine tend to go about 3 levels deep).

you better be prepared to show your work at a critical momebt if ur go na make claims like these

It's proprietary. You'll need to sign an NDA.

@Foxcastle when I said I'm bad at sheets I meant I'm REALLY bad at sheets. How do I display the possible scumteams?

I do it in the first N columns, so 5 in this case, A-E. You just work through the list. So row 1 is: Chaqa, King, Will, Jamie, Bona and then you iterate through the rest of the names in the last slot, and so forth. It can take some time, but with HB out, it cuts out like 12,000 rows that you have to do, so that helps make it easier.

I also find it strange you havent accounted for the tadpole making this equation nearly unsolveable, regardless of clever logic.

the only way itd work with the method you appear to be using is ignoring any observations prior to the tadpole deadline.

There's no accounting for the tadpole without knowing when it's deployed. I'm petitioning to have this particular conundrum listed as a Millennium Prize Problem, as I truly believe it is just as important as the Reimann Hypothesis and PvNP.

But I appreciate the interest! This must be what a scientist feels like just before they win the Nobel Prize.

[Kakarroto]

heya Vecna, I'm pretty sure your name hints to someone good and trustworthy in dnd, mind if you give us your thoughts about fox, aaro and squiggs in this game? Any special suspicious movements or actions you have witnessed?

[Foxcastle]

I think there's another explanation. But I'm not sure if I'm being paranoid.

The dark arts??

Vecna knew we'd need another sub; had possibly even suggested asking Balki.

Just to be clear: your theory is that Vecna, a veteran player, heard from the maf chat that a teammate was subbing out, and then decided to telegraph that info in the thread?

[Kakarroto]

oh hey fox, please enlighten us about your thoughts of bona, Will and Flavius. Any special team those three might be on, according your arcane matrices?

[Kakarroto]

The dark arts??

Vecna knew we'd need another sub; had possibly even suggested asking Balki.

Just to be clear: your theory is that Vecna, a veteran player, heard from the maf chat that a teammate was subbing out, and then decided to telegraph that info in the thread?

I'm pretty sure for that theory to work it does presuppose that there have to be TWO subs from mafia since it was generally known that yoyo is the first sub

[Squigs44]

Hmmm actually I think Bunny could be scum with either Damo or Flum and it would make sense from a VCA standpoint.

Bunny's first post is about Flum, saying he has weird magic powers or something. Ghug asks for clarification and Bunny says something equally cryptic but I think Bunny was saying they townread Flum? Idk, Bunny can you clarify this?

Bunny's vote on HB is what really makes it start to become a wagon, and is followed up with Flum voting HB to solidify it as lead wagon early. Bunny jumps off HB once that wagon is in the lead (potentially trying to distance from the wagon). Later, when Flum is at 5 and HB and damo are at 4 a piece, Bunny switches to HB saying they don't like the Flum wagon.

This would be a pretty bold scum Bunny and scum Flum, with Bunny choosing to interact with Flum early and blatantly saving Flum later, so perhaps this pairing doesn't work unless Bunny is that bold.

Alternatively, Bunny does repeatedly say damo is scummy but never actually votes damo. The vote on HB to "save" Flum also happened to save damo. Im curious to know why Bunny chose to vote HB over damo, especially given their recent opinions on the two:

Bunny on damo:

Your post made it sound like you were choosing to stop reading because the first 7 pages were insufferable, not because you were tired. Also Bunny had 3 short posts in the first 7 pages. Bunny didn't get difficult to read till much later, and even then I wouldn't characterize them as insufferable.

And now your second order of business is to hardclaim, which is arguably more anti town

he's hardclaiming because he's top wagon in a short day. Possibly a tad early but reasonably understandable.

This is not the D1 Harpers!Damo I know. I fear his mind may have been flayed.

And Bunny on HB:

That full-time mafia chat is going to be a PITA.

I wonder if a way around it is to consolidate in like 3, 4, 5 key blocs...who do you resonate as town with, then vote around that, making sure to avoid the tie.

But then the "vote once"" but you can also Unvote and still be in compliance is CAF.

Is Hamilton having trouble keeping up with two places to post and not posting messages for one audience to the other?

Oh no.

Perhaps we should relieve him of his burden.

##vote ham

Or Bunny is town and just happened to hop on the HB wagon at crucial times in an unfortunate manner. I don't really see much from Bunny that makes me lean town, but I fear I'm just tinfoiling here based on my gut and there's no real case on Bunny.

Would love some clarification on their early Flum comments, and why they voted HB over damo given their comments on both

[Kakarroto]

well, that's 2 out of 3 from my previous question, great! Do you, mayhaps, also have something to say about yoyo?

[Foxcastle]

oh hey fox, please enlighten us about your thoughts of bona, Will and Flavius. Any special team those three might be on, according your arcane matrices?

I was just getting to commenting on Bona's "lock in" comment. Is he a techbro? I actually have no idea if it's used unironically or not, but I think "lock in" means an extended, focused work session. I took Bona's comment as saying "hey Flum, let's solve this thing."

And just to be clear, the Arcane Matrices don't provide special info on a player (well, I suppose closer to the end of game, they can because they can tell you that a player may be more or less likely to be in a scum team based on how often they appear in the remaining teams).

Bona seems very superficial. He's skating. He's being helpful on little things and giving very short reactions to other things. I think scum would try harder, so I wouldn't put him at the top of my list to process.

Will seems to have got caught in the flood of posts. Newish player, yes? He really dropped off after the early part of D1, so there's not much to go on. Overwhelmed and losing interest, or overwhelmed and fearful of where to step???

Flav is doingthework. Pushed on Flum and and Dip and ended on Damo, which indicates a pretty consistent mindset to me. Pushed Damo into a tie for first near EOD—it's too early for VCA, but I think that's significant. I think if Damo flips scum (I was skeptical of that yesterday, but coming around on it, maybe), that would make me more suspicious of Flav. The thing that most makes me think Flav is townie is that he did chase the scumslip/townslip thing. If he's around near endgame and hasn't unravelled, he'd be a good candidate for scum, but not yet.

[Foxcastle]

@Squiggs, I don't know what to think about Bunny and Damo. Neither is behaving the way I think they usually behave. But that probably means they're town.

[Squigs44]

Mr. level headed people, sir, what do you think about bunny so far? I would like for you to give your opinion about yoyozo, too, though I can understand that it might take a bit since he just subbed in. And may I be so cheeky and ask for your evaluation of damo?

Oh, well I guess my recent tinfoiling on Bunny that I was preparing probably answers that. Basically gut says Bunny is scum, VCA says Bunny isn't looking good, nit I can't pin down anything that makes me want to commit to a Bunny vote.

Not sure analysis on yoyo is gonna be helpful yet, let's give some time for them to post and catch up.

I gave a case on damo early, but he's either scum who doesn't care or town who doesn't care and either way I can't wrap my head around his intentions or motivations. Either way, damo will probably flip at some point, and an earlier flip could be better for vca. I'd hate to vote damo only for information, but even as town I'm not sure leaving him alive long term is going to be very helpful. Hopefully we find a better flip tomorrow that is more likely scum and gives us more info, but it's hard for me to see a world where damo makes it to the end game, so take that as you will.

[Kakarroto]

oh hey fox, please enlighten us about your thoughts of bona, Will and Flavius. Any special team those three might be on, according your arcane matrices?

I was just getting to commenting on Bona's "lock in" comment. Is he a techbro? I actually have no idea if it's used unironically or not, but I think "lock in" means an extended, focused work session. I took Bona's comment as saying "hey Flum, let's solve this thing."

And just to be clear, the Arcane Matrices don't provide special info on a player (well, I suppose closer to the end of game, they can because they can tell you that a player may be more or less likely to be in a scum team based on how often they appear in the remaining teams).

Bona seems very superficial. He's skating. He's being helpful on little things and giving very short reactions to other things. I think scum would try harder, so I wouldn't put him at the top of my list to process.

Will seems to have got caught in the flood of posts. Newish player, yes? He really dropped off after the early part of D1, so there's not much to go on. Overwhelmed and losing interest, or overwhelmed and fearful of where to step???

Flav is doingthework. Pushed on Flum and and Dip and ended on Damo, which indicates a pretty consistent mindset to me. Pushed Damo into a tie for first near EOD—it's too early for VCA, but I think that's significant. I think if Damo flips scum (I was skeptical of that yesterday, but coming around on it, maybe), that would make me more suspicious of Flav. The thing that most makes me think Flav is townie is that he did chase the scumslip/townslip thing. If he's around near endgame and hasn't unravelled, he'd be a good candidate for scum, but not yet.

thanks for sharing!

Regarding Will, you might say he is new and it's not too wrong, but he played a few games in here. Regarding posts, what if I tell you, that he was on par and even overtook brainbomb for a bit as a topposter in a recent game. Won a game as mafia as the last man standing. He even bussed his godfather as a goon in that game. Always had to say something to any given topic, as town and as mafia, PR and vanilla. Pretty bold every time, in my opinion, or at least confident. What would you think of his appearance in this game then?

[Vecna]

heya Vecna, I'm pretty sure your name hints to someone good and trustworthy in dnd, mind if you give us your thoughts about fox, aaro and squiggs in this game? Any special suspicious movements or actions you have witnessed?

squigs is about as towny as ive ever seen anyone.

Aaro hasnt done anything allignment indicative, but thats not very unusual for him.

Fox and flum are like the same person, except flum is a gymbro and fox is an excelbro. I think theyre both more mildly likely town, but theyre good enough to fake this stuff. These people always feel tonedeaf to me and I dont think I can read them very well at all.

[Kakarroto]

Mr. level headed people, sir, what do you think about bunny so far? I would like for you to give your opinion about yoyozo, too, though I can understand that it might take a bit since he just subbed in. And may I be so cheeky and ask for your evaluation of damo?

Oh, well I guess my recent tinfoiling on Bunny that I was preparing probably answers that. Basically gut says Bunny is scum, VCA says Bunny isn't looking good, nit I can't pin down anything that makes me want to commit to a Bunny vote.

Not sure analysis on yoyo is gonna be helpful yet, let's give some time for them to post and catch up.

I gave a case on damo early, but he's either scum who doesn't care or town who doesn't care and either way I can't wrap my head around his intentions or motivations. Either way, damo will probably flip at some point, and an earlier flip could be better for vca. I'd hate to vote damo only for information, but even as town I'm not sure leaving him alive long term is going to be very helpful. Hopefully we find a better flip tomorrow that is more likely scum and gives us more info, but it's hard for me to see a world where damo makes it to the end game, so take that as you will.

thanks a lot. I read your previous post, gathered as much. Anyway, respond is very appreciated.

Would've loved more to hear about yoyo, since I think I haven't, or if so only one game years ago, played with him before, but either way I have nothing saved up in my brain that tells me about him. I think you did play in a few games with him? Well, either way, I understand your intend, lets get him some time to do stuff.

[Kakarroto]

heya Vecna, I'm pretty sure your name hints to someone good and trustworthy in dnd, mind if you give us your thoughts about fox, aaro and squiggs in this game? Any special suspicious movements or actions you have witnessed?

squigs is about as towny as ive ever seen anyone.

Aaro hasnt done anything allignment indicative, but thats not very unusual for him.

Fox and flum are like the same person, except flum is a gymbro and fox is an excelbro. I think theyre both more mildly likely town, but theyre good enough to fake this stuff. These people always feel tonedeaf to me and I dont think I can read them very well at all.

I see, I see. So we should try to sort out fox and flum so you can solve the game, thanks. *takes notes*

Very helpful, thanks a lot and keep up the good work!

[Squigs44]

Mr. level headed people, sir, what do you think about bunny so far? I would like for you to give your opinion about yoyozo, too, though I can understand that it might take a bit since he just subbed in. And may I be so cheeky and ask for your evaluation of damo?

Oh, well I guess my recent tinfoiling on Bunny that I was preparing probably answers that. Basically gut says Bunny is scum, VCA says Bunny isn't looking good, nit I can't pin down anything that makes me want to commit to a Bunny vote.

Not sure analysis on yoyo is gonna be helpful yet, let's give some time for them to post and catch up.

I gave a case on damo early, but he's either scum who doesn't care or town who doesn't care and either way I can't wrap my head around his intentions or motivations. Either way, damo will probably flip at some point, and an earlier flip could be better for vca. I'd hate to vote damo only for information, but even as town I'm not sure leaving him alive long term is going to be very helpful. Hopefully we find a better flip tomorrow that is more likely scum and gives us more info, but it's hard for me to see a world where damo makes it to the end game, so take that as you will.

thanks a lot. I read your previous post, gathered as much. Anyway, respond is very appreciated.

Would've loved more to hear about yoyo, since I think I haven't, or if so only one game years ago, played with him before, but either way I have nothing saved up in my brain that tells me about him. I think you did play in a few games with him? Well, either way, I understand your intend, lets get him some time to do stuff.

Oh you want meta? I've only played one game with them, M8 about a decade ago. So no meta here

[Squigs44]

Wow, webdip mafia is over 10 years old, isn't it?

[sweetandcool]

So you think we have a world where two mafia subbing out, Vecna knowing this before, then guessing correctly for the second sub?

That is very unlikely. We could test that though by voting Balki tomorrow. He said before he would solve the game tonight, so he could leave us with this information, then we proceed to vote him out, confirming either he was lying or he is town, then go from there.

But as I said, very unlikely. I'd put my money on voting D&W out tomorrow

What's your take on D&W?

either mafia or hurtful town. I think removing him is not a mistake. He ignores evidence and spins it to fit his narrative, as previously shown, and it just makes so much damage, in my opinion. He doesn't consider to reevaluate or check prior evidence and that is a clear sign that even if he is town, he will not be of great use to us

I find it strange you presumably read my conclusion Dip is Town and yet you seem to haven't even bothered to consider it. You acknowledge that Dip could be "bad Town", but seem convinced we should kill "bad Town" rather than Mafia.

[Squigs44]

heya Vecna, I'm pretty sure your name hints to someone good and trustworthy in dnd, mind if you give us your thoughts about fox, aaro and squiggs in this game? Any special suspicious movements or actions you have witnessed?

squigs is about as towny as ive ever seen anyone.

Aaro hasnt done anything allignment indicative, but thats not very unusual for him.

Fox and flum are like the same person, except flum is a gymbro and fox is an excelbro. I think theyre both more mildly likely town, but theyre good enough to fake this stuff. These people always feel tonedeaf to me and I dont think I can read them very well at all.

The last time someone said this about me, I believe it was scum ghug as he sat back and watched me incorrectly lead the vote like 4 times

I'm paranoid now

[sweetandcool]

One of my early red flags was on D&W but because of catching up on posts I forgot why and couldn’t cite it so I backed off. But certainly off vibes I’ve gotten it feels like an overplaying town which feels scum team to me like trying to be too helpful. Could of course be way off on this assessment

interesting

Tomorrow, I hope for your support towards the 'vote D&W out'-church.

You are blinded by hate, young Padawan.

[Kakarroto]

Oh, well I guess my recent tinfoiling on Bunny that I was preparing probably answers that. Basically gut says Bunny is scum, VCA says Bunny isn't looking good, nit I can't pin down anything that makes me want to commit to a Bunny vote.

Not sure analysis on yoyo is gonna be helpful yet, let's give some time for them to post and catch up.

I gave a case on damo early, but he's either scum who doesn't care or town who doesn't care and either way I can't wrap my head around his intentions or motivations. Either way, damo will probably flip at some point, and an earlier flip could be better for vca. I'd hate to vote damo only for information, but even as town I'm not sure leaving him alive long term is going to be very helpful. Hopefully we find a better flip tomorrow that is more likely scum and gives us more info, but it's hard for me to see a world where damo makes it to the end game, so take that as you will.

thanks a lot. I read your previous post, gathered as much. Anyway, respond is very appreciated.

Would've loved more to hear about yoyo, since I think I haven't, or if so only one game years ago, played with him before, but either way I have nothing saved up in my brain that tells me about him. I think you did play in a few games with him? Well, either way, I understand your intend, lets get him some time to do stuff.

Oh you want meta? I've only played one game with them, M8 about a decade ago. So no meta here

I see, I thought you had more. Well, I guess we sit in the same boat now