Mafia 88: Murder at the Meadery - GAME THREAD

[sweetandcool]

@Sweet:

Question: You have declared several of my D2 reads to be correct or incorrect. Some of those people are still alive. So by "correct" you just mean "corresponding to my (Sweet's) own reads", yes?

Observation: You have used your analysis here to arrive at a scum PoE. But you earlier said you were aware of a second copscan guilty, in addition to Vecna. I assume that person is included in the pool, but that you are deliberately faking a portion of your analysis to protect the Cop.

Yes, feel free to ignore the declarations of "correct" or "incorrect" and reach your own conclusions. It shouldn't change my analysis much.

[bozotheclown]

I tend to think Bunny doing this kind of antics is more likely town then scum , but of course it can be faked. Agree that setting possible votes could be scum keeping his options open, but I will need to re-read to look at this as I skipped some pages last night and I am barely keeping updated today.

This discussion near D1 EOD looks like mafia distancing.

Rdr distancing himself from BunnyGo?

I meant rdrivera and Vecna distancing from each other by disagreeing on their reads.

[bozotheclown]

It may be possible that Vecna is the miller, but I doubt he is town at this point.

With the bot available again I have been able to review the game, and with the assumption that Vecna is town, I now think rdrivera and kingofthepirates are the most likely D1 bussers.

What changed your mind about Sweet?

After reviewing everything, DiplomacyandWarfare and kingofthepirates seem more likely to be mafia to me, which would be somewhat disappointing, because that would mean the mafia team was not very active after D1.

[bozotheclown]

I don't like the damo wagon.

##VOTE Spartaculous

This is other I can vote, but it's almost a coin flip as I don't remember anything from him.

rdrivera also set up a possible move to Spartaculous, who no mafia ended up voting for.

[Jamiet99uk]

It may be possible that Vecna is the miller, but I doubt he is town at this point.

With the bot available again I have been able to review the game, and with the assumption that Vecna is town, I now think rdrivera and kingofthepirates are the most likely D1 bussers.

What changed your mind about Sweet?

After reviewing everything, DiplomacyandWarfare and kingofthepirates seem more likely to be mafia to me, which would be somewhat disappointing, because that would mean the mafia team was not very active after D1.

Expand.

[Jamiet99uk]

I don't like the damo wagon.

##VOTE Spartaculous

This is other I can vote, but it's almost a coin flip as I don't remember anything from him.

rdrivera also set up a possible move to Spartaculous, who no mafia ended up voting for.

BunnyGo, Balki and Sweet voted for Sparty on D2.

[sweetandcool]

Sweet: question one is full of framing bias and assumptions. Why would you assume having good reads gets ghug dead? They KNEW he hadn’t scanned anything.

Why would you assume Jamie has bad reads? Scum have been cop hunting (probably). His reads have little to do with that.

Your first answer is too early it can’t be a cop tell at all.

Even if Jamie were the cop he can only be informed of NOTHING day 2.

I think you’re a bit off, mate.

You need to remember that scum killed ghug for a reason.

Imagine Mafia chat N2. They all discuss who they think the Clerk is. If they don't feel strongly about a candidate, then it makes sense they would just kill the previous night's RB, ghug. In fact, if they can't find anything suggestive that would IMPLY that the Clerk was the RB. In that case they had to choose between ghug and Jamiet.

But look, one of Sparta's very first posts of D2 seemed incredibly like Cop crumbing a scan on Town sweetandcool. Mafia absolutely could not miss this, so why not NK or RB Sparta?

Because ghug was so eerily accurate! It's still weird they did not RB anybody, let alone Sparta but still it fits.

I wish I could express myself better, there is some nuance to this, but I am utterly convinced this was the case.

[bozotheclown]

Not much time left, and I suppose I need to cast my vote. I’m inclined to break the tie one way or the other. If either side is willing to drop a TLDR of reasons within 10 mins, I’ll read it and weigh the options. Will’s side has more reasons overall, so I’m inclined to go that direction right now. If no one drops anything, I’m going to

##Vote will

If rdrivera had just bussed Just, I think the chances of kingofthepirates doing the same if he were mafia increase. Also, kingofthepirates hedged his vote 3 times: "I’ll read it and weigh the options", "I’m inclined to go that direction right now", "If no one drops anything".

[sweetandcool]

These are good questions from Bozo.

If I was Mafia, jailed by a Jailor (Brainbomb) who had subsequently died, I think it is highly likely I would claim the Roleblock. (I am not Mafia here, and I was Roleblocked by someone N1, but Bozo's challenge to your analysis is entirely valid).

As Bunny (and also Bozo) is highlighting here, your wallpost of analysis either (a) contains a lot of assumptions which you are presenting as certainties, or (b) is based on some information which town would generally not be in possession of.

Don't fall for silly quibbles.

In the case you are Mafia you are a liar generally. As far as my argument is concerned it doesn't matter if you were actually RB N1. I really don't care and Bozo is being incredibly silly with his questions.

[sweetandcool]

It may be possible that Vecna is the miller, but I doubt he is town at this point.

With the bot available again I have been able to review the game, and with the assumption that Vecna is town, I now think rdrivera and kingofthepirates are the most likely D1 bussers.

What changed your mind about Sweet?

After reviewing everything, DiplomacyandWarfare and kingofthepirates seem more likely to be mafia to me, which would be somewhat disappointing, because that would mean the mafia team was not very active after D1.

This is what I was trying to say last day phase.

When the players seem to be running in circles arguing then it means Mafia is not very active.

[sweetandcool]

These are good questions from Bozo.

If I was Mafia, jailed by a Jailor (Brainbomb) who had subsequently died, I think it is highly likely I would claim the Roleblock. (I am not Mafia here, and I was Roleblocked by someone N1, but Bozo's challenge to your analysis is entirely valid).

As Bunny (and also Bozo) is highlighting here, your wallpost of analysis either (a) contains a lot of assumptions which you are presenting as certainties, or (b) is based on some information which town would generally not be in possession of.

Don't fall for silly quibbles.

In the case you are Mafia you are a liar generally. As far as my argument is concerned it doesn't matter if you were actually RB N1. I really don't care and Bozo is being incredibly silly with his questions.

Sorry, his questions up to the point I had quoted. Has had follow up questions and analysis that is a lot better.

[bozotheclown]

Sweet: question one is full of framing bias and assumptions. Why would you assume having good reads gets ghug dead? They KNEW he hadn’t scanned anything.

Why would you assume Jamie has bad reads? Scum have been cop hunting (probably). His reads have little to do with that.

Your first answer is too early it can’t be a cop tell at all.

Even if Jamie were the cop he can only be informed of NOTHING day 2.

I think you’re a bit off, mate.

You need to remember that scum killed ghug for a reason.

Imagine Mafia chat N2. They all discuss who they think the Clerk is. If they don't feel strongly about a candidate, then it makes sense they would just kill the previous night's RB, ghug. In fact, if they can't find anything suggestive that would IMPLY that the Clerk was the RB. In that case they had to choose between ghug and Jamiet.

But look, one of Sparta's very first posts of D2 seemed incredibly like Cop crumbing a scan on Town sweetandcool. Mafia absolutely could not miss this, so why not NK or RB Sparta?

Because ghug was so eerily accurate! It's still weird they did not RB anybody, let alone Sparta but still it fits.

I wish I could express myself better, there is some nuance to this, but I am utterly convinced this was the case.

It could have been a combination of ghug being right about rdrivera and trying to set up Hamilton for a mis-kill after ghug pushed him to clarify his claim at D2 EOD. They might also have thought that made ghug more likely to be the cop. Or, he could have been right about Hamilton and they NKed damo for some other reason than thinking he was the cop.

[bozotheclown]

This is other I can vote, but it's almost a coin flip as I don't remember anything from him.

rdrivera also set up a possible move to Spartaculous, who no mafia ended up voting for.

BunnyGo, Balki and Sweet voted for Sparty on D2.

So did kingofthepirates and damo, but on D1 Spartaculous was an available counterwagon to Just that none of the mafia went for. I think that was because 2 mafia were bussing, and rdrivera setting up a possible move to Spartaculous could be an indication he was one of the bussers.

[BunnyGo]

I tend to think Bunny doing this kind of antics is more likely town then scum , but of course it can be faked. Agree that setting possible votes could be scum keeping his options open, but I will need to re-read to look at this as I skipped some pages last night and I am barely keeping updated today.

This discussion near D1 EOD looks like mafia distancing.

Rdr distancing himself from BunnyGo?

Buddying Bunny.

[bozotheclown]

What changed your mind about Sweet?

After reviewing everything, DiplomacyandWarfare and kingofthepirates seem more likely to be mafia to me, which would be somewhat disappointing, because that would mean the mafia team was not very active after D1.

This is what I was trying to say last day phase.

When the players seem to be running in circles arguing then it means Mafia is not very active.

I think you were correct.

We had Vecna and rdrivera as the lead wagons 1.5 before EOD on D2, and by EOD they had 1 vote combined. That was a missed opportunity.

[bozotheclown]

This discussion near D1 EOD looks like mafia distancing.

Rdr distancing himself from BunnyGo?

Buddying Bunny.

Maybe Hamilton as well, another reason why rdrivera/kingofthepirates may make more sense than rdrivera/Hamilton.

[Jamiet99uk]

These are good questions from Bozo.

If I was Mafia, jailed by a Jailor (Brainbomb) who had subsequently died, I think it is highly likely I would claim the Roleblock. (I am not Mafia here, and I was Roleblocked by someone N1, but Bozo's challenge to your analysis is entirely valid).

As Bunny (and also Bozo) is highlighting here, your wallpost of analysis either (a) contains a lot of assumptions which you are presenting as certainties, or (b) is based on some information which town would generally not be in possession of.

Don't fall for silly quibbles.

In the case you are Mafia you are a liar generally. As far as my argument is concerned it doesn't matter if you were actually RB N1. I really don't care and Bozo is being incredibly silly with his questions.

You are wrong. As Mafia I try to tell the truth as much as I possibly can without overly incriminating myself. I generally only lie, to the minimum level I have to, if directly questioned.

There are things I would *omit* saying, but that's not lying.

[bozotheclown]

Dargorygel has changed my name

Very good. What do you think of the game state?

The ham wagon is terrible. Vecna seems to know exactly what is going on, but rarely posts, which is a scumlean to me. Balki is actively engaging and being very levelheaded compared to the rest of this nonsense. Sweet continues to play very well. Bunny has been posting a lot but doesn't seem to be doing much, and requires further analysis.

Strong town:
Ham
Sweet

Weak town:
Jamiet
Balki

Weak scum:
Bozo
LordofWords
Vecna

Null:
Everyone else

This is another thing that seems to make DiplomacyandWarfare/Hamilton less likely. Also, no mention of kingofthepirates.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Good morning! Beautiful day for a killin'

If I should happen to expire tonight, let's all consider sweetandcool and kingofpirates hard town.

[bozotheclown]

Good morning! Beautiful day for a killin'

If I should happen to expire tonight, let's all consider sweetandcool and kingofpirates hard town.

Why kingofthepirates?