Mafia 88: Murder at the Meadery - GAME THREAD

[ghug]

This game just got made a lot easier by the newer players putting in a few killer posts that pretty much absolves them.

The irritation with certain players is palpable.

Balki Bartokomous
kingofthepirates
Rdrivera2005
Bonatogether
Bozotheclown
Spartaculous
BunnyGo
Jamiet99uk
damo666
Lord of Words
ghug
Vecna
The above group is probably all town, in no particular order

Leaving a very easy poe:
Hamilton Brian
Sweetandcool
worcej

Maybe im wrong about 1, which is likely either Rdrivera, Kotp or Bona if some weird bussing occured.

But for now, fuck whether any of these slots bussed or not, thats a crapshoot anyway. Reads reign supreme.

lmao??

What do you make of this, Bona?

[ghug]

I find it interesting that HB is feigning to not have a clue about what is going on this game, yet he feels he can make a judgement call on whether SweetNcool is powerwolfing.

I didn't initiate it; just reflecting on someone else's idea. Why that particular piece? This is you trying your best to generate the miskill of me?

I think Ham is scum.

[Spartaculous]

As a postscript, Will also divided a bunch of people into two groups that he claimed were seemed suspicious of each other:

Foodcoats, Balki, Jamie, Will, Vecna (acknowledging that he didn't really trust Vecna)

and

Bunny, Bona, Bozo, (sweet?), (brain?).

I'm not sure what to make of this, but I think that his Mafia teammates are more likely than not to be on this list (again, excepting LoW, who really wasn't playing at this point).

One correction to your analysis:

Every game Will mentions the new players he will protect.

I am 100% confident he put Sparta and LoW into his Town regardless of their alignment.

Fair enough. As I said before, I definitely didn't think we should read too much into his town read of LoW. As for me, you are right; I don't want to claim that this gives me town credibility.

[ghug]

This is quite a bit of nice work put in to that piece of data. What does it tell you about the space where the 2nd mafia generally joins?

The second Mafia generally joins not too long after the first. If there were, in fact, two Mafia on that wagon, kingofthepirates would be a reasonable choice to pair with either one of Bonatogether and rdrivera2005 (or it could be both of those together).

One might think that it would be easy for a Mafia player to jump on an already-full wagon right at the end for some easy town credibility (as in, a Mafia version of ghug, seeing Will is a goner, decides to join). Counterintuitively, that just doesn't seem to happen: only once did the last person to join happen to be Mafia.

I liked the work you put on this, but I don´t like how you are using this to only focus on the statistical side of this and not the actual game. There were games with heavy bussing (3 out of 4 on M84, and with no-bussing, like M56 with 5 scum voting outside).
Mafia usually buss for a reason: to detach from a partner, to get town credit with a flip, etc. This game I fail to see a reason for Bona and Sweet to push a buss on the GF the way both did. You can say that the other voters like me and the last minute ones could be bussing and it´s a fair take, but you need to consider people motivations and not only statistics.

I think rd is scum.

[Spartaculous]

The second Mafia generally joins not too long after the first. If there were, in fact, two Mafia on that wagon, kingofthepirates would be a reasonable choice to pair with either one of Bonatogether and rdrivera2005 (or it could be both of those together).

One might think that it would be easy for a Mafia player to jump on an already-full wagon right at the end for some easy town credibility (as in, a Mafia version of ghug, seeing Will is a goner, decides to join). Counterintuitively, that just doesn't seem to happen: only once did the last person to join happen to be Mafia.

I liked the work you put on this, but I don´t like how you are using this to only focus on the statistical side of this and not the actual game. There were games with heavy bussing (3 out of 4 on M84, and with no-bussing, like M56 with 5 scum voting outside).
Mafia usually buss for a reason: to detach from a partner, to get town credit with a flip, etc. This game I fail to see a reason for Bona and Sweet to push a buss on the GF the way both did. You can say that the other voters like me and the last minute ones could be bussing and it´s a fair take, but you need to consider people motivations and not only statistics.

I think rd is scum.

Well, shall we give it a try?

##VOTE rdrivera2005

[sweetandcool]

The second Mafia generally joins not too long after the first. If there were, in fact, two Mafia on that wagon, kingofthepirates would be a reasonable choice to pair with either one of Bonatogether and rdrivera2005 (or it could be both of those together).

One might think that it would be easy for a Mafia player to jump on an already-full wagon right at the end for some easy town credibility (as in, a Mafia version of ghug, seeing Will is a goner, decides to join). Counterintuitively, that just doesn't seem to happen: only once did the last person to join happen to be Mafia.

I liked the work you put on this, but I don´t like how you are using this to only focus on the statistical side of this and not the actual game. There were games with heavy bussing (3 out of 4 on M84, and with no-bussing, like M56 with 5 scum voting outside).
Mafia usually buss for a reason: to detach from a partner, to get town credit with a flip, etc. This game I fail to see a reason for Bona and Sweet to push a buss on the GF the way both did. You can say that the other voters like me and the last minute ones could be bussing and it´s a fair take, but you need to consider people motivations and not only statistics.

I think rd is scum.

I'm coming around to this idea.

[ghug]

LoW's post based on Will's reads list (and damo's explanation of what he was attempting to do) gave me an idea for more research.

Will has been Mafia three (!) times since he has started playing. I decided to go back and look at the Day 1s of his previous two games: what kind of reads does he put out on his teammates?

-------------------------------------------

M86: His initial reads list is in CAPITALS; later reads are put inside [brackets].

bozotheclown: NULL
brainbomb: NULL [to Mafia]
BunnyGo: NULL-LEANING MAFIA [this may have strengthened]
Chaqa: NULL-LEANING TOWN
damo666: NULL
foodcoats: TOWN LEAN
Frogsterking: SLIGHT MAFIA LEAN
ghug: NULL [to town]
Hamilton Brian: NULL [later indicated he was okay with potential Ham wagon]
heartthrob24909: TOWN LEAN
Jamiet99uk: NULL LEANING TOWN
sweetandcool: MAFIA LEAN
Vecna: NULL

Who actually were the Mafia? sweetandcool (his vote) and Hamilton Brian.

So, he put neither of his actual teammates in a town-lean bucket. He spent most of the day throwing sweetandcool under the bus [is that where the term "bussing" comes from?], and didn't have too much to say about Hamilton Brian (except to indicate he was okay with that potential wagon right near the end of the day).

-------------------------------------------

M84: Past Will didn't do future me the favor of making one tight readlist on Day 1, so I will attempt to put together my best version of this. Most of them are blank.

bozotheclown:
BunnyGo:
Chaqa:
damo666:
ghug:
Hamilton Brian: did crack a semi-joke about Mafia chat
heartthrob24909:
Jamiet99uk:
Macca573: Suspected Macca
Bonatogether: Voted for Bonatogether early on (also made a joke about them being partners)
rdrivera2005:
SpiritoftheRadio: Had
sweetandcool: Very much suspected sweetand cool (and voted for him)
Temasek22:
worcej:

That's not a lot of information; let's look at Day 2. When asked for a list of 3 Mafia, he put down ghug (explaining it simply because ghug suspected him), along with two of:
{Jamie, Worcej, Heartthrob, Bunny}. That was early in the day; he actually later voted for Hamilton Brian.

Who actually were the Mafia?

sweetandcool, worcej, ghug. That's who he came down hard on in the first day, and the other two quickly got put on his suspicious list the second day.

-------------------------------------------

The important lesson to learn here is that Will does *not* seem to like to put out *any* town reads on his teammates, or at least not in the first day or two. I don't think this is the kind of part of his gameplay that would change.

So where does that leave us for this game? Here is his list of reads (right before brainbomb came in):

TOWN: Would not flip today
—
Spart
Lord
Jamie
Sweet
—
LEAN TOWN: Would only flip if alternative is higher up
—
Ghug
King
Food
—
NULL: Would (also) only flip if alternative is higher up
—
DrFid
Worcej
Balki
Rdr
Damo
—
SCUM: Would flip today
—
Vecna
Bunny
Bozo
Bona

Given what I have previously seen, I don't think that the Mafia are to be found in his TOWN/LEAN TOWN categories.

The one most likely exception to that is LoW; we know that the two of them know each other in real life (or at least outside of this website). I could see him doing a favor for his friend.

I like this analysis.

I will note that Will has been very consistent about protecting new players, so I think you and Lord would both end up in that top pool regardless.

I also think Will is crafty enough that he's capable of switching things up, but that's not necessarily the likeliest.

[ghug]

I liked the work you put on this, but I don´t like how you are using this to only focus on the statistical side of this and not the actual game. There were games with heavy bussing (3 out of 4 on M84, and with no-bussing, like M56 with 5 scum voting outside).
Mafia usually buss for a reason: to detach from a partner, to get town credit with a flip, etc. This game I fail to see a reason for Bona and Sweet to push a buss on the GF the way both did. You can say that the other voters like me and the last minute ones could be bussing and it´s a fair take, but you need to consider people motivations and not only statistics.

I think rd is scum.

Well, shall we give it a try?

##VOTE rdrivera2005

##VOTE rdr

[sweetandcool]

I liked the work you put on this, but I don´t like how you are using this to only focus on the statistical side of this and not the actual game. There were games with heavy bussing (3 out of 4 on M84, and with no-bussing, like M56 with 5 scum voting outside).
Mafia usually buss for a reason: to detach from a partner, to get town credit with a flip, etc. This game I fail to see a reason for Bona and Sweet to push a buss on the GF the way both did. You can say that the other voters like me and the last minute ones could be bussing and it´s a fair take, but you need to consider people motivations and not only statistics.

I think rd is scum.

Well, shall we give it a try?

##VOTE rdrivera2005

I'm sticking on Vecna.

Oh yeah, I forgot to answer your question about Vecna.

Every game the veteran players scumread Vecna for reasons that woosh over my head.

So I am surprised at the size of the wagon.

I am voting Vecna because he never gets my alignment incorrect, but now he is and the only reason he would be confidently incorrect is if he is Mafia.

Also, I think he is the reason brainbomb was the NK. I think he is the leader of an inexperienced/not assertive scum team.

Admittedly, I would like stronger more tangible reasons to vote him, so that investigation is kind of my work for the morning.

[ghug]

Very town:
ghug

Pretty town:
Bunny
Jamie

Townish:
Damo
Pirates
LoW
Sparta
Sweet
Vecna

Nulls:
Balki
Bona
Worcej

Scum:
rd
Ham
bozo

[sweetandcool]

LoW's post based on Will's reads list (and damo's explanation of what he was attempting to do) gave me an idea for more research.

Will has been Mafia three (!) times since he has started playing. I decided to go back and look at the Day 1s of his previous two games: what kind of reads does he put out on his teammates?

-------------------------------------------

M86: His initial reads list is in CAPITALS; later reads are put inside [brackets].

bozotheclown: NULL
brainbomb: NULL [to Mafia]
BunnyGo: NULL-LEANING MAFIA [this may have strengthened]
Chaqa: NULL-LEANING TOWN
damo666: NULL
foodcoats: TOWN LEAN
Frogsterking: SLIGHT MAFIA LEAN
ghug: NULL [to town]
Hamilton Brian: NULL [later indicated he was okay with potential Ham wagon]
heartthrob24909: TOWN LEAN
Jamiet99uk: NULL LEANING TOWN
sweetandcool: MAFIA LEAN
Vecna: NULL

Who actually were the Mafia? sweetandcool (his vote) and Hamilton Brian.

So, he put neither of his actual teammates in a town-lean bucket. He spent most of the day throwing sweetandcool under the bus [is that where the term "bussing" comes from?], and didn't have too much to say about Hamilton Brian (except to indicate he was okay with that potential wagon right near the end of the day).

-------------------------------------------

M84: Past Will didn't do future me the favor of making one tight readlist on Day 1, so I will attempt to put together my best version of this. Most of them are blank.

bozotheclown:
BunnyGo:
Chaqa:
damo666:
ghug:
Hamilton Brian: did crack a semi-joke about Mafia chat
heartthrob24909:
Jamiet99uk:
Macca573: Suspected Macca
Bonatogether: Voted for Bonatogether early on (also made a joke about them being partners)
rdrivera2005:
SpiritoftheRadio: Had
sweetandcool: Very much suspected sweetand cool (and voted for him)
Temasek22:
worcej:

That's not a lot of information; let's look at Day 2. When asked for a list of 3 Mafia, he put down ghug (explaining it simply because ghug suspected him), along with two of:
{Jamie, Worcej, Heartthrob, Bunny}. That was early in the day; he actually later voted for Hamilton Brian.

Who actually were the Mafia?

sweetandcool, worcej, ghug. That's who he came down hard on in the first day, and the other two quickly got put on his suspicious list the second day.

-------------------------------------------

The important lesson to learn here is that Will does *not* seem to like to put out *any* town reads on his teammates, or at least not in the first day or two. I don't think this is the kind of part of his gameplay that would change.

So where does that leave us for this game? Here is his list of reads (right before brainbomb came in):

TOWN: Would not flip today
—
Spart
Lord
Jamie
Sweet
—
LEAN TOWN: Would only flip if alternative is higher up
—
Ghug
King
Food
—
NULL: Would (also) only flip if alternative is higher up
—
DrFid
Worcej
Balki
Rdr
Damo
—
SCUM: Would flip today
—
Vecna
Bunny
Bozo
Bona

Given what I have previously seen, I don't think that the Mafia are to be found in his TOWN/LEAN TOWN categories.

The one most likely exception to that is LoW; we know that the two of them know each other in real life (or at least outside of this website). I could see him doing a favor for his friend.

I like this analysis.

I will note that Will has been very consistent about protecting new players, so I think you and Lord would both end up in that top pool regardless.

I also think Will is crafty enough that he's capable of switching things up, but that's not necessarily the likeliest.

I think the way he played this D1, at least the public facing side, was significantly different from his other games. He didn't act bizarro like normal and openly BS. Consequently, I think it's likely he changed things up at least a little.

But obviously not sure.

[ghug]

I think rd is scum.

Well, shall we give it a try?

##VOTE rdrivera2005

I'm sticking on Vecna.

Oh yeah, I forgot to answer your question about Vecna.

Every game the veteran players scumread Vecna for reasons that woosh over my head.

So I am surprised at the size of the wagon.

I am voting Vecna because he never gets my alignment incorrect, but now he is and the only reason he would be confidently incorrect is if he is Mafia.

Also, I think he is the reason brainbomb was the NK. I think he is the leader of an inexperienced/not assertive scum team.

Admittedly, I would like stronger more tangible reasons to vote him, so that investigation is kind of my work for the morning.

Vecna often displays more confidence than is appropriate. I'm not sure if this is an act or a character flaw, but it is what it is.

Also, nobody is capable of always reading someone correctly. Those streaks end.

[Chaqa]

GM Note:
I would like to remind everyone that today's end of phase will likely process slowly. I have pre-typed a few flavor messages, but I will be at most 2 hours late in posting them. I believe it will be more punctual than that - I just need a minute or two between matches at my tournament.

Brainbomb has offered to post a "Day has ended, please hold" message. Please respect this post if I am not able to make it. Behave like Dargo is watching. He might be.

[Jamiet99uk]

Very town:
ghug

Pretty town:
Bunny
Jamie

Townish:
Damo
Pirates
LoW
Sparta
Sweet
Vecna

Nulls:
Balki
Bona
Worcej

Scum:
rd
Ham
bozo

Why do you townread / townlean LordofWords?

Don't you think his reads list looked fake?

Doesn't it bother you that he said he re-read the thread three times before making that list, and yet he didn't know Fidelis had been replaced by Brain, he didn't know Brain had died, and he didn't know Foodcoats had died?

Doesn't it bother you that he said he would answer questions about his list, I asked him two questions, and then he made further posts without answering me?

[Spartaculous]

I will note that Will has been very consistent about protecting new players, so I think you and Lord would both end up in that top pool regardless.

Yep; as I said to sweetandcool, I am not claiming this as giving me town credibility.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I am going to stick with my Vecna vote, I think. @Vecna, if you are town, then it means you just genuinely wanted to be my friend. And I shall feel remorseful. And I shall be your friend forever. [heart hands]

If you are a wolf, then you can die you filthy, smarmy, glad-handing, buddy-buddy, palsy-walsy scumbucket.

[sweetandcool]

Very town:
ghug

Pretty town:
Bunny
Jamie

Townish:
Damo
Pirates
LoW
Sparta
Sweet
Vecna

Nulls:
Balki
Bona
Worcej

Scum:
rd
Ham
bozo

Why do you townread / townlean LordofWords?

Don't you think his reads list looked fake?

Doesn't it bother you that he said he re-read the thread three times before making that list, and yet he didn't know Fidelis had been replaced by Brain, he didn't know Brain had died, and he didn't know Foodcoats had died?

Doesn't it bother you that he said he would answer questions about his list, I asked him two questions, and then he made further posts without answering me?

It is disturbing that it's like pulling teeth to get anything from this guy. He is a Mafia veteran! I don't get it, and if he happens to actually be Town I can't imagine it would be a very bad MK.

[ghug]

Wait, the leading wagon is Vecna?

[ghug]

Very town:
ghug

Pretty town:
Bunny
Jamie

Townish:
Damo
Pirates
LoW
Sparta
Sweet
Vecna

Nulls:
Balki
Bona
Worcej

Scum:
rd
Ham
bozo

Why do you townread / townlean LordofWords?

Don't you think his reads list looked fake?

Doesn't it bother you that he said he re-read the thread three times before making that list, and yet he didn't know Fidelis had been replaced by Brain, he didn't know Brain had died, and he didn't know Foodcoats had died?

Doesn't it bother you that he said he would answer questions about his list, I asked him two questions, and then he made further posts without answering me?

All of it bothers me, but bothering and scumminess aren't the same thing. I think it's more likely he's town overwhelmed by a new interface than scum who wasn't aware his team killed a sub.

[Bonatogether]

This game just got made a lot easier by the newer players putting in a few killer posts that pretty much absolves them.

The irritation with certain players is palpable.

Balki Bartokomous
kingofthepirates
Rdrivera2005
Bonatogether
Bozotheclown
Spartaculous
BunnyGo
Jamiet99uk
damo666
Lord of Words
ghug
Vecna
The above group is probably all town, in no particular order

Leaving a very easy poe:
Hamilton Brian
Sweetandcool
worcej

Maybe im wrong about 1, which is likely either Rdrivera, Kotp or Bona if some weird bussing occured.

But for now, fuck whether any of these slots bussed or not, thats a crapshoot anyway. Reads reign supreme.

lmao??

What do you make of this, Bona?

already stated. no loose questioning for you