Mafia 87: Madness in Mega-City One - GAME THREAD

[worcej]

I urge y’all not to follow the same players today. I strongly suggest we daykill Damo or Sweetie.

I like both of these options and will only vote between them.

[damo666]

Also, I’m pretty sure we want to ignore the MMA mechanic and just vote for who you think is Scum. Good to consolidate in the end like normal, but there is absolutely no reason vote movements at this point in the day should be dictated by that mechanic.

I think we want to avoid any 1 or 2 vote wagons at EOD. Anybody on such wagons close to EOD should just vote their best scum guess from the leading wagons.

[worcej]

I have flipped a coin, which was tails. Rdr-false.

I’ve been thinking a lot, and I think rdr is almost certainly mafia. ##vote rdr. I don’t want to give it away, but there is a really compelling reason rdr is mafia.

If you were RB'd why did you invent a result?

I was unsure of how to proceed following an RB, whether it was customary or not to announce it publicly. So I flipped a coin to randomize the result, which looked to me to be the protocol if one didn’t do an actual investigation which yielded results. Once I was informed of publicly announcing rb, I immediately let you all know.

I honestly town kotp for this

[Kakarroto]

Well, almost EOD (end of day, I assume?), and yeah, quite a few new pages! Also seems consistent has generally pivoted to damo. As much as I am reluctant to vote given what little information we have, I’ll follow through with my previous idea (voting with majority) and play it safe by avoiding giving more power to MMA: ##VOTE damo

This was when damo was a (7) wagon day 1.

damo666 (7) - foodcoats, rdrivera2005, Chaqa, DrFidelis, worcej, brainbomb, kingofpirates

an hour before Sweet was the (7) wagon
7 swe 5 dam 2 ghu 2 Bal

this is the vote at the end

damo666 (6) foodcoats, rdrivera2005, DrFidelis, worcej, kingofthepirates, Vecna

so if RHK's theory has any merit that it was a 'wagon gone wrong' for a certain mafia, then, looking at that, it was only Chaqa and brain who left the wagon

that would then mean Chaqa was the only one who might be the one that fits the full criteria for RHK's theory. Which would fit bussing Chaqa, but as far as I remember, he moved off of him anyway quite before the Brian wagon formed. And I also don't particularly maf-read Chaqa, so I guess, either the mafia that meme-bussed damo just stayed there, for whatever reason, or there was no 'mafia-meme gone wrong' accident with damo

[Balki Bartokomous]

Also, I’m pretty sure we want to ignore the MMA mechanic and just vote for who you think is Scum. Good to consolidate in the end like normal, but there is absolutely no reason vote movements at this point in the day should be dictated by that mechanic.

I think we want to avoid any 1 or 2 vote wagons at EOD. Anybody on such wagons close to EOD should just vote their best scum guess from the leading wagons.

That’s true in the sense that it’s always true. And there is a small extra incentive to do that here too, I agree. But let’s not allow people to justify vote switches based on that mechanic right now. We don’t even know what the leading wagons will be right now (see yesterday). Maybe in the last 20 minutes.

[worcej]

would scumteams coordinate their fake scans?

Prior experience is yes

[Balki Bartokomous]

Is there a default rule for what will happen if Fidelis does not post? Should we expect a modkill or a sub?

[Kakarroto]

@Damo, let's please not make Daykill choices based on the Hypo claims. Please ignore the Hypo Claims for now.

Here are some reasons:
- Most of the Hypo Claims are fake. They are hypotheticals from non-cops.
- Some of the Hypo Claims are from the bad guys. They are meant to mislead, and they have an easy alibi for being confusing (they are supposed to be random!)
- Even the handful that come from actual cops may be fake or unintelligible. The Addictive, Naive, and Macho Cops do not know what kind of Cops they are. The Parity Cop gave us a fake result. The PA Angel would have had a pretty easy job last night because many of the Hypo Cop targets were announced early enough to tell the PA Angel where to go.
- The Method Cop was purposefully altered to give backwards hypo scans so that the results are unintelligible.
- If we actually got an actionable scan from a Cop last night, it's in the thread, and we will be able to use it eventually (after that Cop hard claims or flips).

OK but people should be more careful.

For example food declared a FALSE on Vecna and voted for him in the same post. He then moved off which is tantamount to soft claiming not cop. If food isn't vt, doc or scum I'd be very surprised. So even assuming the minimum of 3 cops this gives a food a minimum chance of being scum 7/15 and from a vt pov 1/2, cop pov > 1/2, angel pov, 3/15, judge pov 4/15.

##vote food

Saying you have a FALSE on Vecna and then hard voting vecna the whole day basically dooms you to be outed and roleblocked for the rest of the game

maybe I should just do that

[worcej]

I feel like a big part of this game is to try to explain why you suspect a certain thing. To show your work. That helps other people decide whether to agree or disagree, and it helps people to sort you.

All this talk of vibes and "that's just what I think," etc., makes it harder to sort the good guys from the bad guys.

ugh… the wisdom… so juicy…

[damo666]

Also, I’m pretty sure we want to ignore the MMA mechanic and just vote for who you think is Scum. Good to consolidate in the end like normal, but there is absolutely no reason vote movements at this point in the day should be dictated by that mechanic.

I think we want to avoid any 1 or 2 vote wagons at EOD. Anybody on such wagons close to EOD should just vote their best scum guess from the leading wagons.

That’s true in the sense that it’s always true. And there is a small extra incentive to do that here too, I agree. But let’s not allow people to justify vote switches based on that mechanic right now. We don’t even know what the leading wagons will be right now (see yesterday). Maybe in the last 20 minutes.

Yes, that's why I said close to EOD. At this stage people should just vote as they think fit. I think we are on the same page.

[kingofthepirates]

What really is worth strategizing over is the difference between 0 and 1 votes: No NK. This is a good enough reason for people to move their votes off wagons with only 1 or 2 votes at EoD.

In conclusion, don't be afraid someone might be MMA if they got 3 or 4 votes. However, you should avoid voting for wagons that have no chance of going through, so as to deprive the MMA of a NK.

That means kotp, kak, and ghug should take their votes off rdr, ND, and chaqa respectively.

That makes sense. ##unvote
I can’t catch up til ~noon eastern, I’ll check back and assess then. 3 wagons, eh? Interesting…

[Kakarroto]

im done now. where is fidelis, and why is ND playing so isolationist

yes

[kingofthepirates]

Also, I’m unclear if I will be around for EOD, so if I do vote preemptively and the wagon fizzles out (like D1), I hope y’all will understand…

[damo666]

Is there a default rule for what will happen if Fidelis does not post? Should we expect a modkill or a sub?

going by GM's post #967 sub if available else modkill

however he may be stricter D2 and just modkill

@GM what's the answer please

[DrFidelis]

apologies, y’all, for forgetting about the game of mafia. I’ll vote with the wagon and figure out an opinion from there.

##VOTE rdrivera2005

[Kakarroto]

im asking a really simple question about motivations of scum players and you refused to acknowledge a question. I asked it twice. it isnt about scan results. its about coordinated scan choices. which 5 people chose me. im asking if you think that scum would coordinate to all scan the same person to distance, and claim that they would never all choose the same person.

I agree that the unlikeliness of everybody scanning you is notable. I'm not sure what to make of it.

Oh! I know. So it's super bizarre, right? I know someone who would probably revel in it as a Mafia player.

Brainbomb. It's brainbomb. He told his entire team to scan him, then later he would point out how bizarre it is, and how it must be an entire team coordinating.

do you think, that the people who said scanned brain, would listen to his suggestion in the maf-thread?

Or would it be more logical, that many people think they can't read brain and would want him to be scanned?

[worcej]

I know ghug won't like this but correcting brain's post

Player Target Report

Sweet brain FALSE
Balki brain TRUE
Vecna brain TRUE
Damo brain TRUE
Food vecna FALSE
Worcej snowy TRUE
Kotp rdr Roleblocked/FALSE
Kak rdr TRUE
Will ghug FALSE
Rdr damo TRUE
d&w kak TRUE
ghug kak TRUE
Brain ND TRUE

Did not partake
Fidelis
ND
Snowy
rhk
Chaqa

I'm kind of offended how few people scanned me
I can fake scum like the best of you, I'll have you know

It’s okay melty - it’s all going to be fine…

[DrFidelis]

apologies, y’all, for forgetting about the game of mafia. I’ll vote with the wagon and figure out an opinion from there.

##VOTE rdrivera2005

Wait that was an old wagon, there’s talk of sweet vs. balki and damo vs. sweet, sweet’s the common factor.

##VOTE sweetandcool

[Kakarroto]

How do flashwagons happen?

1. Mafia support, due to teammates leading wagons or being under no pressure.
2. Person being flashed is to varying degrees suspected, not necessarily expressed in thread.
3. Top wagons, regardless of actual alignment, are considered "bad" by some players.
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I think the Ham flash succeeded because of all three. I think many people didn't really want to vote damo or sweetandcool or both.

I think there was a small undercurrent of suspicion towards Ham throughout the day. I think this was extremely exacerbated by him popping on near EoD, voting for someone he didn't scumread, all while saying he was leaving the thread and wouldn't be back.

So was there Mafia involvement? Was it because they were protecting a teammate (damo) or was it because they weren't under pressure and happy to support a flash?

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I think a good place (actually it turns out to be terrible) to start is when Ham placed his vote on Food.

Will immediately reacted in disbelief, then the conversation got totally railroaded by sweetandcool complaining about rdr's racist remark, then Will matching profile pics, then people yelling at the GM.

Nothing really notable happens until snowy tells ghug to start a flashwagon and ghug responds with going after Balki. Okay, so the Balki flash is maybe important to look at in a different post, it looks like this post is going to be more of a summary to help me guide my attention.

The Balki flash doesn't go anywhere really and then there is a lot of conversation where people are trying to make clear will they will vote, presumably to encourage a viable flash.

Will mentions Ham again in a negative way, pointing out his absence. Still nobody else has mentioned Ham. Now the real action begins: Chaqa responds to Will and calls for a flash of Ham, at the same time sweetandcool calls for a Dip flash.

The Dip flash is actually the one that gathers steam, but then Ham shoots himself in the foot by reiterating his bizarre statement about voting someone he thinks is not Mafia.

Damo then votes sweetandcool making the wagons:

damo (5)
sweet (4)
Balki, Dip (3)

There is a little more discussion about Ham, particularly Kak seems to agree with whatever Ham was doing and joins him on Food, ghug expresses suspicion over Ham seeming to know the setup well and then later indicates he is okay flashing Ham.

Kak finally votes Ham, after some discussion that indicated that confused Kak was fine with Ham, ghug was fine with Ham, Will was fine with Ham. Interestingly, sweetandcool only makes one mention of Ham and it was a soft defense back when Chaqa originally called for a Ham flash.

Then the deluge gates open as Will and ghug join, then Darg(!), then Chaqa follows through with his earlier call for Ham. Now Ham is properly viable, and I think Darg's vote plus the rest of the votes after Chaqa are super interesting.
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Okay, so this post turned into a timeline rather than much analysis. It's helpful to me, but I'm guessing nobody else.

Still, it will help me with my analysis, which I will work on and post later.

just addition for the green part: I didn't agree with Brian, I thought it was a hidden bus/disentangle while also protecting (since Brian kinda town read food) and they were an angel voting the mean machine to gain the NK. I thought since food would be the more dangerous role in that situation, to voting food, but changed to Brian after no one else followed and probably wouldn't have followed anyway. Also flipping Brian was then more of a check if my theory was right (spoiler, it was not) and from behaviour between the two, while food was a null for me and Brian was quite sus. I only got the idea that food might be the machine BECAUSE Brian voted him with that reasoning.

[Kakarroto]

Poor Brian watching from the skies
We miss you dearly

yeah, sorry Brian, I was very wrong. I hope though you have fun watching and enough time to enjoy your other endeavours.