Mafia 86: Accidents Happen... - Game Thread

[bozotheclown]

I've just had a lightbulb moment. Jamie can't be scum. He would either have made the effort to be on at EOD or signalled to his teammates his anticipated absence (like Bozo did).

So I now think it's Bozo and Ham with a slight chance of deartgorob.

I will not even contemplate a sweet voter until these 3 are accounted for.

If I was mafia and online at EOD, I would have made sure I was on the sweetandcool wagon considering how D1 had gone. Since I was not online at EOD, I am a reasonable scum suspect, but I think there is a reasonably good chance the mafia were on at EOD and ended where they would want to be. The obvious bussing candidates are Vecna and Chaqa, and maybe the answer is just that simple. Or, we could have a more elaborate bussing scheme like in M84.

[Vecna]

Why are you excluding Damo and Ghug from the likely bussing candidates?

[Jamiet99uk]

This post from Vecna in which he says Frogster "looks really towny" because of EoD1 made me curious about something:

Well, I was not around for the final 3-4 hours, but...

1. Happy that we got scum.
2. Mildly surprised as I was not specifically scumkreading S&C and I'll need to go back and understand why his wagon took the lead.
3. Keen for Bozo to stop ignoring me.
4. I still townread Brain and Chaqa
5. I still have suspicions about Frogster.

This post of jamiet reads quite sincere.

Compared to hambone's "im surprised this flipped scum, where did it come from" it reads more genuine as it fits better with jamiet's trajectory this game.

no admitting of missing the bozo joke. just continued suspicion. scum jamiet might be much more intune with that being a bad look, he doesnt seem to gaf.

sticking to a chaqa & brainbomb townread despite it being odd after that EoD.

bringing up suspicions about a slot that looks really towny after that EoD.

Could always be a ballsy scumplay, but this does not appear to want to adhere to any common threads of public thought. Not scared to look bad.

The question I asked myself is.... does Frogster look really towny because of EoD1?

Vecna, are you suggesting Frogster looks towny because he voted for Sweetandcool, who has flipped scum? Is that basically the reason for your comment?

[bozotheclown]

BunnyGo and ghug suspecting each other as the possibly busser has me thinking that it is possible they are both mafia. I think it would fit with a maximum bussing strategy, and would explain why ghug did not return to voting for sweetandcool sooner.

I did not think it was very likely ghug would bus sweetandcool again after M84, but he could be going with what worked. I think sweetandcool voting for BunnyGo after BunnyGo's first post is the strongest reason to suspect BunnyGo, but maybe that was what sweetandcool was going for.

You are suggesting that BunnyGo, Ghug, and Vecna all decided to bus their team-mate, Sweetandcool, are you?

Maybe 2 out of 4 of Vecna, Chaqa, BunnyGo, and ghug, in that order of probability.

[Vecna]

He looked really towny to me before EoD, but im pretty sure EoD should make him look very towny to the entire playerlist, yes.

[Vecna]

Also, Bozo - I think its a pretty flawed and potentially scummy narrative to only focus on potential bussers.

[Vecna]

also, your large wall post listed a lot of reasons to be suspicious of Damo, yet in your recent posts his name is very absent.

How come?

[bozotheclown]

Why are you excluding Damo and Ghug from the likely bussing candidates?

If you are asking me, I am not, but they are number 4 (ghug) and 5 (damo) on my list based on my opinion of their bussing probability.

[Vecna]

Are you trying to tie me to Damo?

[BunnyGo]

Are you trying to tie me to Damo?

Should we be?

Do you suspect you’re on the same team or not?

[Vecna]

I really cant think of any possible scenario where you'd possibly think that statement being directed at a group that youre part of bunny.

Youve not been anywhere near this conversation

[bozotheclown]

also, your large wall post listed a lot of reasons to be suspicious of Damo, yet in your recent posts his name is very absent.

How come?

The simple answer is that I currently suspect you, Chaqa, BunnyGo, and ghug more. After all, there were at least 5 town voting for sweetandcool, that is what makes it hard to find the bussers.

[Chaqa]

Very sus that Chaqa hasn't demanded we swing the subs yet.

I've never had a particular anti-sub stance

You like to joke about it, though.

I forgot

[Jamiet99uk]

He looked really towny to me before EoD, but im pretty sure EoD should make him look very towny to the entire playerlist, yes.

Well let's see because I've just analysed his D1 in detail and I do not agree.

[Vecna]

Eh, I find it far more plausible that scum is nervous because town got their big prize ticket and they were caught off of the wagon.

Even sleep's "at least I participated" today speech fits much better in a world where he's semi-dickhurt his team was absent to save him.

I wouldnt consider chaqas and ghugs vote bussing.

I find it way more likely there were 5 town in the first 5 sleep voters than that theres 2 scum in the 7 people that ended up on him.

[Jamiet99uk]

Frogster's apparent suspicion of Sweetandcool appears right on the first page:

Weird flavour. Are the town the people who have fallen into the toilet, and the Mafia are the no good bodgers who built the floor?

I think Town are the rescuers of the Emperor and Mafia is scum here.

You seem different, what's wrong with you?

He goes on to accuse Sweetandcool of "making up reads":

You seem different, what's wrong with you?

I'm sure you're joking, but IRL has got me grumpy. My goal nonetheless this game is to try to be as reasonably civil as in last game.

Thank you for being open. How is being on tilt affecting your ability to make up reads?

This is a bizzarre accusation as it was still only Page 3 and Sweet had not posted any reads.

He then joins Brainbomb in pressuring Sweet over whether he scumreads BunnyGo:

Which do you want to take as a stance
Defending bunny as satirical
Or accusing bunny for faking

You probably cant take both positions

I can. A judge has to weigh both sides of an argument. I want to judge as accurately as possible.

Some of Bunny's posts can be excused as satire. Some look suspiciously fake.

When did you decide to start scum reading bunny, sweet?

A while goes by during which Frogster talkas about other matters.

Then on page 21:

Brain, why do you town read sweetandcool?

But he then says something which is puzzling if he scumread Sweetandcool at that time:

I was scum last game. It was literally my objective to be as little help as possible whilst not allowing anyone to notice that that was the case.

Look under as many rocks as you can! Who (of the people in this game) did you find the hardest to read last game, and how do you feel about any of those people now?

Also, why did you demand exactly 5 reads from Chaqa, and why did you then apparently not look carefully at his posts to glean whether he had provided any reads?

Off the top of my head, of players who were both in last game and this one I had trouble reading heartthrob, foodcoats, sweet and you. You seem more town this game, sweet, heartthrob and foodcoats seem about the same.

See here he says Sweetandcool seems the same as he was in the previous game.

Sweetandcool was town in the previous game, not scum, so suggesting he is the same now implies Frogster does not scumread Sweet after all?

Soon after he says he is "pre-flipping" Sweetandcool and analysing from there:

That changes things a fair bit for me.

hows that?

I'm preflipping sweet as scum and it's giving me new stuff to work with.

What is preflipping?

I'm assuming sweet is indeed scum while rereading everything

Next we have this weird post:

This is basically where I'm at.

What is the criteria for suspecting sweetandcool? As far as I know, you have each only had the opportunity to correctly scum read him once.

I could see there being 2 scum talking, here.

So apparently here Frogster is theorising that scum!bozo and scum!ghug are talking about the criteria for scumreading Sweetandcool, who he was back to assuming was scum as well.

Then we go back to a hard scumread on Sweetandcool:

Okay that sucks; I wanted to ask questions before posting my reads list and stuff. The important thing is that we need to stop dicking around and kill sweet. I'll post this part and hopefully that will be enough:

Damo is town probably based on their posts and my interactions with them in M85.

Sweet is really polarized and easy to read as scum, even without meta, which is mainly how I'm reading them now (without meta.) It's not that complicated at all to find them as scum.

The town block is Will-ghug-damo-frog, all town all on sweet!scum or throwing.

And a vote:

##vote sweetandcool

And a bit more pushing at the end:

No, get off damo, they look like obvious limbait, stop dicking around tunneling each other, sweetandcool is an easy read and needs to go first.

Analysis:

Nowhere, in any of this, does Frogster give a reason for scumreading Sweetandcool. He just magically does. Apparently Sweet is so easy for Frogster to read that he suspects him from Page 1 without ever giving a reason why.

Also, in his first post suspecting Sweetandcool, he accuses Sweet of "seeming different", yet later on, in a response to me, he says Sweet seems the same as last game (where he was not scum).

This is highly suspicious.

[Jamiet99uk]

Detective Annoying Orange now calls upon Frogster, and upon Vecna, to comment on my latest essay.

[ghug]

So you piled on partly due to the value of tie prevention, after you decided there was no longer the risk of a tie.

Huh?

There's always a risk of a tie. I believed it unlikely Bunny would win.

I do this every game, Jamie.

So you believed the vote was settled and there was not going to be a tie but also there's always the risk of a tie.

Perfectly clear, thanks.

I believed a shift to Bunny winning was exceedingly unlikely at that point. A tie was more likely, but still unlikely. There's no reason not to pile on.

Again, I do this very consistently, and the only downside is that some people seem to be confused by it, so I see no reason to change my ways or to read into my alignment from it.

[Jamiet99uk]

There's always a risk of a tie. I believed it unlikely Bunny would win.

I do this every game, Jamie.

So you believed the vote was settled and there was not going to be a tie but also there's always the risk of a tie.

Perfectly clear, thanks.

I believed a shift to Bunny winning was exceedingly unlikely at that point. A tie was more likely, but still unlikely. There's no reason not to pile on.

Again, I do this very consistently, and the only downside is that some people seem to be confused by it, so I see no reason to change my ways or to read into my alignment from it.

Ah yes, I get you. Maintaining an aspect of your meta that makes it harder for people to read you, in order to benefit your scum game.

I do that, too.

[Frogsterking]

@foodcoats
@ghug

#1 what haven't you shared yet about your D1 relationship to any of the Sweet wagoners?
#2 how did the formation of the sweet wagon affect your reads EoD1?
#3 Is there anything I should ask you that I'm missing?