Mafia 85: Return from Lockdown

[lfischl]

Has anyone been identified as the Curfew Enforcer?

[sweetandcool]

##VOTE lfischl
##END

[heartthrob24909]

Hi all - I'm back and catching up from EoN2 before going to bed. RIP BunnyGo.

I investigated Diplomacy&Warfare and my return was "Town."

Following BunnyGo's departure I think this limits me to either Detective, Internal Affairs, Electoral Commission Office, or Mail Man, barring any sort of switcheroos that havent occurred to me.

Detective would mean D&W is Town.

Internal Affairs always returns Town so my result would be meaningless.

ECO returns the alignment of the person D&W last voted for in D1, which is Just, so my results are consistent with ECO being my role.

Mail Man returns what my target (D&W) returned. D&W claims to have returned "ECO" so if he is telling the truth then I am not the Mail Man.

Now it's time to read.

Now going for level 2. D&W revealed "ECO" as his return. If he is telling the truth, then he is either the Corrupt Cop, Middle Manager, Email Hacker, or Mail Man since those are the only ones which can return a role.

Corrupt Cop reveal's the target's role. If D&W is actually the Corrupt Cop and decided to be truthful about his return (which would be weird imo) then his target, brainbomb, is the ECO. ECO returns an alignment, which is inconsistent with brainbomb's return of "JustAGuyWill."

Middle Manager returns the role of target's target. D&W's target was brainbomb and brainbomb's target was babyspice666. If babyspice666 is the ECO, her return would be an alignment. She claims to have returned "JustAGuyWill" so we reach contradiction here if both D&W and babyspice666 are telling the truth.

Email Hacker receives a copy of their target's return. If D&W and brainbomb are both telling the truth, D&W is not the Email Hacker.

Mail Man returns the same return as the target (essentially the town version of Email Hacker, if I have this right). Not consistent with what we're seeing.

If I have all of that right (and included every scenario), then the combination of my return and D&W's return seems to point to a scenario where at least one of D&W, brainbomb, and babyspice666 is not telling the truth about their return. If someone sees an error with this please point it out. Most importantly, when we factor in MY return - which suggests that D&W is potentially Town, and thus either the Middle Manager or the Mail Man - I think we arrive at a situation where in order for this to be the case, at least one of brainbomb or babyspice666 has to be lying.

*Obligatory mention that I make the baseline assumptions that I am not a mafia role and that I shared my return and target truthfully.

[heartthrob24909]

This is one of the most important claims so far because it produces the narrowest range of possible roles for D&W: Mafia Corrupt Cop, Mafia Hacker, or Mail Man. He is not the PI because Bunny was.

D&W is 66% scum mechanically, and all 12 other claims so far could also be the Mail Man (I am pretty sure at this stage that basically anyone with any claim could be the Mail Man, until we do second level triage). Overall it is quite likely D&W is scum if he is telling the truth (and if he is lying, I'm not sure why).

His D1 also sucks

I targeted BobMcBob.

Oh, this changes the entire post I just made. hang on.

[Frogsterking]

All of my notes right now are "first level" only, I am not cross-referencing at the moment.

@foodcoats

Hey, elaborate on this asap

[Kakarroto]

yeah there are some mafia in the success group

UPDATE:

THOUGHTS ON RESULTS IF NO ONE LIED:

regarding SUCCESS messages:

BK3K can't be doc
Brian can't be doc
Kakarroto can't be doc
worcej can't be doc
frogster can't be doc

BK3K might be Curfew Enforcer
Brian can't be Curfew Enforcer
worcej can't be Curfew Enforcer
Kakarroto can't be Curfew Enforcer
frogster might be Curfew Enforcer

BK3K can't be nes host
Brian can't be news host
worcej might be news host
Kakarroto might be news host
frogster can't be news host

BK3K might be Lobbyist
Brian might be Lobbyist
Kakarroto might be Lobbyist
worcej might be Lobbyist
frogster might be Lobbyist

a chain of worcej -> Kakarroto -> Frogsterking is possible; with Chaqa claiming 'undelivered' Frogster has good chances of being Curfew Enforcer; it's possible that news host is Kakarroto and reported this. It's also possible Kakarroto as Lobbyist increased vote power for Frogster and worcej reported this.

!if Frogster is sicko, this all could be true and could make frogster hiding! -> I think of this as a low chance, but for people suspecting frogster, they might want to check this.

also, I think either worcej or Kakarroto has to be news host

personally, of the 5 success messages, I think BK3K's is the most suspicious. Brian's isn't giving me a too nice vibe either. We should have a closer look on these two.

[heartthrob24909]

Has Bob McBob shared a return message yet? Bob, do you plan to?

[Kakarroto]

This is one of the most important claims so far because it produces the narrowest range of possible roles for D&W: Mafia Corrupt Cop, Mafia Hacker, or Mail Man. He is not the PI because Bunny was.

D&W is 66% scum mechanically, and all 12 other claims so far could also be the Mail Man (I am pretty sure at this stage that basically anyone with any claim could be the Mail Man, until we do second level triage). Overall it is quite likely D&W is scum if he is telling the truth (and if he is lying, I'm not sure why).

His D1 also sucks

I targeted BobMcBob.

oh ... NEWS UPDATE!!!

D2:
breakfast news: "success"

babyspice666 → lfischl (got JustAGuyNamedWill)
BK3K → Nephthys !!! -> did instead target bob, got SUCCESS
BobMcBob → sweetandcool
bozotheclown → worcej
Brainbomb → babyspice666 (got JustAGuyNamedWill)
BunnyGo → BK3K (unknown)
Chaqa → BobMcBob (said something of an odd result) (got UNDELIVERED)
Damo666 → bozotheclown (got delivered)
Diplomacy&Warfare → brainbomb !!! -> did instead target bob, got Electoral Commissions Officer
foodcoats → BunnyGo (got FAILURE)
Frogsterking → Chaqa (got SUCCESS)
Hamilton Brian → damo666 (got SUCCESS)
heartthrob24909 → Diplomacy&Warfare (got TOWN)
Jamiet99uk → foodcoats (got Electoral Commissions Officer)
Kakarroto → Frogsterking (got SUCCESS)
lfischl → Hamilton Brian (got FAILURE)
Nephthys → heartthrob24909
sweetandcool → Jamiet99uk (got DELIVERED)
Worcej → Kakarroto (got SUCCESS)

[bozotheclown]

I received a result of town and a message that my role is the Detective. I will be back later.

[lfischl]

His D1 also sucks

I targeted BobMcBob.

oh ... NEWS UPDATE!!!

D2:
breakfast news: "success"

babyspice666 → lfischl (got JustAGuyNamedWill)
BK3K → Nephthys !!! -> did instead target bob, got SUCCESS
BobMcBob → sweetandcool
bozotheclown → worcej
Brainbomb → babyspice666 (got JustAGuyNamedWill)
BunnyGo → BK3K (unknown)
Chaqa → BobMcBob (said something of an odd result) (got UNDELIVERED)
Damo666 → bozotheclown (got delivered)
Diplomacy&Warfare → brainbomb !!! -> did instead target bob, got Electoral Commissions Officer
foodcoats → BunnyGo (got FAILURE)
Frogsterking → Chaqa (got SUCCESS)
Hamilton Brian → damo666 (got SUCCESS)
heartthrob24909 → Diplomacy&Warfare (got TOWN)
Jamiet99uk → foodcoats (got Electoral Commissions Officer)
Kakarroto → Frogsterking (got SUCCESS)
lfischl → Hamilton Brian (got FAILURE)
Nephthys → heartthrob24909
sweetandcool → Jamiet99uk (got DELIVERED)
Worcej → Kakarroto (got SUCCESS)

My role was used on brain, I wasn't going to go along with the plan then I decided to with about an hour left and monarch didn't see it

[heartthrob24909]

Who did you target? (sorry if this is already posted later, catching up)

This is one of the most important claims so far because it produces the narrowest range of possible roles for D&W: Mafia Corrupt Cop, Mafia Hacker, or Mail Man. He is not the PI because Bunny was.

D&W is 66% scum mechanically, and all 12 other claims so far could also be the Mail Man (I am pretty sure at this stage that basically anyone with any claim could be the Mail Man, until we do second level triage). Overall it is quite likely D&W is scum if he is telling the truth (and if he is lying, I'm not sure why).

His D1 also sucks

Since I investigated D&W I got a bit of a "2nd-level" analysis started but I did it all incorrectly assuming he targeted brainbomb. I look forward to revising it if/when we hear more about D&W's actual target, Bob McBob,'s return. Hopefully illustrative since there are only a couple possible outcomes if we assume D&W is telling the truth about his return

[Frogsterking]

So there is 1 scum in jamie/foodcoats right?

[brainbomb]

This is one of the most important claims so far because it produces the narrowest range of possible roles for D&W: Mafia Corrupt Cop, Mafia Hacker, or Mail Man. He is not the PI because Bunny was.

D&W is 66% scum mechanically, and all 12 other claims so far could also be the Mail Man (I am pretty sure at this stage that basically anyone with any claim could be the Mail Man, until we do second level triage). Overall it is quite likely D&W is scum if he is telling the truth (and if he is lying, I'm not sure why).

His D1 also sucks

I targeted BobMcBob.

[brainbomb]

your analysis was really nice anyway

[Frogsterking]

This is one of the most important claims so far because it produces the narrowest range of possible roles for D&W: Mafia Corrupt Cop, Mafia Hacker, or Mail Man. He is not the PI because Bunny was.

D&W is 66% scum mechanically, and all 12 other claims so far could also be the Mail Man (I am pretty sure at this stage that basically anyone with any claim could be the Mail Man, until we do second level triage). Overall it is quite likely D&W is scum if he is telling the truth (and if he is lying, I'm not sure why).

His D1 also sucks

I targeted BobMcBob.

Ah

[Kakarroto]

I received a result of town and a message that my role is the Detective. I will be back later.

if true and damo didn't lie, damo is cleared Paper Delivery Boy

[brainbomb]

so someone who is fully understanding this

is everything going well or is this going badly?

[worcej]

Who did you target? (sorry if this is already posted later, catching up)

This is one of the most important claims so far because it produces the narrowest range of possible roles for D&W: Mafia Corrupt Cop, Mafia Hacker, or Mail Man. He is not the PI because Bunny was.

D&W is 66% scum mechanically, and all 12 other claims so far could also be the Mail Man (I am pretty sure at this stage that basically anyone with any claim could be the Mail Man, until we do second level triage). Overall it is quite likely D&W is scum if he is telling the truth (and if he is lying, I'm not sure why).

So you are assuming Mafia wouldn't lie?

I kind of assumed they would just claim success or more likely failure since that is the broadest category.

I’m with sweet on this - I think D&W is probably town here, scum would just claim success.

[heartthrob24909]

so someone who is fully understanding this

is everything going well or is this going badly?

its gonna take me at least a business day

but even with the incomplete chart Kak has put together there is at least one obvious interesting ones we can pick out. Chaqa, Damo, and Sweetandcool all report a "Delivered/undelivered" result, which only 2 roles in the game can get back, not counting the Mail Man or Email Hacker (who get copies of target's results) which idt any of them can be here bc none of them were each other's target

[worcej]

Targeting me, yes?

Correct, yes, my PM targeted you.

In that case, because I know my PM from the GM says "Failure," and to get that result you must be the maf corrupt cop, maf hacker, or mail man, you are the Corrupt Cop and I am the Electoral Commissions Officer.

GG. Sorry.

Need to dig, but are those the only way you can fail?