Mafia 85: Return from Lockdown

[foodcoats]

They’re not connected at all.

My confidence is based on my analysis that I’ve explained already. Plus damo and bozo, who I trust to be vastly more sound with mechanics than me, seem to agree.

Seems good.

please link me your analysis

how are you so sure that damo and bozo are telling the truth and are town?

Maybe analysis is a strong word. I think that if we don’t share information, we can do little in isolation. Even your point about doctor is off - the NKer could be curfew enforced.

Oh, and I really don’t think scum want us to claim. Other people like Bunny and Chaqa and brain agreed with that. So bozo and damo are protown in that respect anyway. There isn’t some grand scum conspiracy to get us to claim lol

[Nephthys]

Can I just say no offense to babyspice but I feel like regardless of what my power is, it is going to pretty boring being used on baby spice who is probably town. They didnt even know how to send the GM a message to submit a night action, which if they were mafia theyd be in a discord and wouldnt even need to use the forum message system to send a night action. usually the discord template has a mafia actions section where scum members submit both their factional kills and their other night actions. Assuming monarch used the discord template, baby spice would have to be really playing dumb there to be anything other than spewed town now

I dunno, I remember by first game where I rolled Mafia with CJG and I was told to heavily play up the new person gambit, its pretty NAI for me currently

[bozotheclown]

babyspice666 → lfischl
BK3K → Nephthys
BobMcBob → sweetandcool
bozotheclown → worcej
Brainbomb → babyspice666
BunnyGo → BK3K
Chaqa → BobMcBob
Damo666 → bozotheclown
Diplomacy&Warfare → brainbomb
foodcoats → BunnyGo
Frogsterking → Chaqa
Hamilton Brian → damo666
heartthrob24909 → Diplomacy&Warfare
Jamiet99uk → foodcoats
Kakarroto → Frogsterking
lfischl → Hamilton Brian
Nephthys → heartthrob24909
sweetandcool → Jamiet99uk
Worcej → Kakarroto

Implied compliance emboldened in red.

I am complying with this list.

[Nephthys]

To be honest Jamie was outted as mafia the moment he started evaluating the people who had voted for justaguy named will, and his response was basically a joke.
Not to mention he managed to forget lfischl in his reads of will voters, despite the fact he was the first to commend the GM on adding lfischl to the vote tally.

I cant explain if he is just scum with lfischl or if hes just dancing around things to waste peoples time, but there is so little of chance of jamie being town at this point that if I am mistaken, I will actually join a trump rally and march on washington dc

WHAT, lemme check

[Nephthys]

Jamie, I assume you came to the conclusion that by me saying multiple, that a minimum of at least 2 mafia comes more or less as the derivation of the word multiple. I think I understand your answer now and you dont need to answer it.

basically you think only a max of one person on Justaguy wagon was mafia, and that it isnt hamilton because that would be really wild for him to be mafia yet again, and then you think the scummiest person on that wagon was babyspice for maybe trying to tie it?

If lfischl was your top scumread end of day 1, moreso than even justaguynamed will, I am a bit surprised to now hear that lfischl has actually IMPROVED in your reads AFTER KILLING A TOWN.

Can you maybe elaborate on your progression on lfischl here?

Almost, but let me clarify:

Firstly, yes, I assume by "multiple" you mean more than one, because that is the normal meaning of that word.

I think it could be Hamilton or Lfischl or Babyspice, but I doubt they are all scum.

My comment on Hamilton means a slightly different thing than you have understood. What I mean is, at that time I found Hamilton slightly scummy (and still do, tbh), but my comment reflected the fact that it would be amusing for him to roll scum so often. I did not mean I don't think he's scummy. He is. He's potential scum.

Babyspice I simply know nothing about. Her vote was a "yikes" moment, and I'm not sure how to read it.

Lfischl remains a potential suspect. I don't townread Lfischl yet. But he looks slightly less scummy because he was keen to break a tie, bearing in mind a D1 tie is bad for town's thought process.

You might say "oh but what if Lfischl was trying to save BK3K?" But if Lfischl and BK3K are partners, then would Lfischl really be a bold enough busser to jump onto a late flashwagon on BK3K and contribute to nearly getting his team-mate killed?

I am not sure Lfischl is that bold.

Now having responded to this in some detail, another question occurs to me. BK3K has barely posted tonight and has not really reacted to the fact that he was within a whisker of being day-killed at EOD.

@BK3K: Please could we have your reflections on the End-Of-Day voting which nearly saw you yeeted into the dead pile?

@Brain, its here?

[Kakarroto]

They’re not connected at all.

My confidence is based on my analysis that I’ve explained already. Plus damo and bozo, who I trust to be vastly more sound with mechanics than me, seem to agree.

Seems good.

please link me your analysis

how are you so sure that damo and bozo are telling the truth and are town?

Maybe analysis is a strong word. I think that if we don’t share information, we can do little in isolation. Even your point about doctor is off - the NKer could be curfew enforced.

so you DID read it but you never mentioned anything before.

I find it very telling that you only mention it when criticising my analysis.

If you aren't mafia, you are at least a town that has a bias and can't be trusted to fully know what's best for town. You are too closed minded. If you are town, think about it and change for the betterment of town.

[bozotheclown]

I will quote bozo to continue to drive this point home. None of the returns we can get can be "trusted" in isolation. No one can actually conclude "I'm the detective!" if they get an alignment return, for example.

If you don't understand this, please read the setup.

I agree. Are you cool with sharing 2 competing options (or FAIL if you get FAIL) instead of one specific?

Do you mean the "encryption" thing? I think that that really gets in the way of trying to solve the game for town.

I think it is probably better for everyone to be clear in their claims, but I am not opposed to trying BunnyGo's plan to start D2 and see how it goes. It may become clear who should claim their real result during D2.

[worcej]

I expect worcej to have a certain je ne sais quoi in some aspect of his game, and im seeing no valid reasoning from him why anyone is scum.

granted im one of his targets but he doesnt really explain why im scum and instead just chooses to punish me for arguing with Jamie. I did not get the impression he felt there was any reason that I am engaging in scum theatre there.

Honestly, D1 in a role madness game is not a time where I am going to pump a lot of energy into scum hunting, especially when it’s a weekend where I have my kids. I am not a highly active player on weekends.

Otherwise, I voted you over Jamie because I didn’t want Jamie to turn into another flipout at me for voting him randomly like he has done in prior games.

And then my son actually got sick to the point where he needed my intervention and then today’s shuttling to the doctor.

[worcej]

Almost 40 pages of N1 posts is incredibly daunting to want to read and I assume it’s heavily filled with mechanics.

[Jamiet99uk]

To be honest Jamie was outted as mafia the moment he started evaluating the people who had voted for justaguy named will, and his response was basically a joke.
Not to mention he managed to forget lfischl in his reads of will voters, despite the fact he was the first to commend the GM on adding lfischl to the vote tally.

I cant explain if he is just scum with lfischl or if hes just dancing around things to waste peoples time, but there is so little of chance of jamie being town at this point that if I am mistaken, I will actually join a trump rally and march on washington dc

What

[Jamiet99uk]

Ah, but now I'm realizing I am not talking about you breaking the tie. I'm talking about when you moved your vote from me to lfishl with an hour left.

I don't think you ever explained that? At least, I haven't found a reason yet.

Yes I am answering from that point.

Oh, okay. I guess your explanation is that you started scum reading him stronger. I'm just wondering where I lie in your scumreads, then.

Currently rising slowly.

[bozotheclown]

Ok, caught up.

First, this is the current state of where people stand:

Directed PR-actions D1 over free-for-all?

YEA: bozo, damo, Jamie, heart (and if I'm not wrong, food too? didn't really vote but I think his stance is quite clear)

NEY: lfischl, sweet, bob, chaqa

??? (explain below): BK3K (does what group thinks is smartest - so I think YEA but only in majority?)

=====

(ney but would still follow if majority is up to: lfischl, sweet) (lfischl retracted his support I think in post number 1384?)

(9/19 voted)

I'm currently uncertain on the fence. However with what I've read and think about it, I tend more to NEY. After I woke up I was thinking it might be fine, but foods strange stance made me ponder.

But let me list advantages/disadvantages:

-) If reaching 100% role-knowledge early enough, town autowins (well that is also true if we don't use the system, but I guess it can still be counted as an advantage?)
-) scans/actions are saved for later/don't require special effort saving
-) mafia needs to pin in their options early if they want to fake claim
-) speeds up finding out own role (effect starts only after SoD3 though)

=====

-) gives mafia information for their nk (starts with N2 if we reveal D2; N3 if we reveal EoN2) which probably helps their PR hunt
-) takes initiative away from town which might probably lead to decreased fun/morale/investment
-) it's not a slam dunk win chance


Hmm ... maybe I'm overlooking something but that kinda sums it up, no? Please tell me if I'm overlooking something.

That tradeoff between giving mafia information and forcing them to lock their fake messages is the crux, I think. I'm not sure I value that high enough to handshake it.

Saving the messages can easily be done if people are diligent posting them when they are voted out. There are also ways to hide them in your posts, some people would call it 'crumb', so I wouldn't be too worried about that.

I also think that the "finding your own role", or how much it speeds it up, is overrated by some people here. It shouldn't take too long to have a grasp on things and have at least a probability for two to four roles. People should be able to work with that.

Yeah, hmm, I'm not convinced it's a good idea to use the system. Especially not if we just blurt out what we got on D2. I'm on NAY for this one.

Feel free to enlighten me if I'm overlooking something or am wrong with a perspective.

I agree there is a trade-off, but in my opinion getting as much information publicly available as soon as possible will benefit town more than mafia, because we can quickly sort players by possible roles and find out which groups the mafia are hiding in. All that is needed for this is mass claiming results, but assigning targets has the added benefit of forcing the mafia to comply or possibly being caught be some of the more unusual PR actions.

what do you think of presenting the information in the mass claim at EoN2 instead of SoD2? With the added clause that any town that gets voted out claims shortly before EoD2?

At what ratio would you draw the line of it costing too much between how many people mass claim to how many people don't? Like if only 5 people take part on the 'mass claim' (if it even can be called it at that point), would the claim cost be too high and help mafia more?

I still think it is better to have all of the information D2, because we can then use N2 to try to resolve ambiguities in the reports, then again on N3.

[worcej]

Chaqa is just so antitown that it becomes town...right??

Okay for sure we should not kill Frog

@brain this is his first post on 42-44 except for saying he's catching up. Seems legit.

Brain probably doesn’t consider this a read from me because I didn’t say “I town frog” explicitly

[worcej]

Okay for sure we should not kill Frog

@brain this is his first post on 42-44 except for saying he's catching up. Seems legit.

that for whatever reason would appear to be the only stance of any kind he took so far was that frog should be above even being looked at

What about the stance that you or Jamie should die? Does that not count?

[foodcoats]

please link me your analysis

how are you so sure that damo and bozo are telling the truth and are town?

Maybe analysis is a strong word. I think that if we don’t share information, we can do little in isolation. Even your point about doctor is off - the NKer could be curfew enforced.

so you DID read it but you never mentioned anything before.

I find it very telling that you only mention it when criticising my analysis.

If you aren't mafia, you are at least a town that has a bias and can't be trusted to fully know what's best for town. You are too closed minded. If you are town, think about it and change for the betterment of town.

Huh? Read what?

[BunnyGo]

If I die, kill someone. Maybe Dip.

[bozotheclown]

Assuming we ALL chose to participate in the directed PR system:

Plus assuming there will be no roleblocks for town because curfew enforcer hits sicko (I first thought they would act in the same phase but it turns out the curfew enforcer is faster so there is a chance that mafia RB is town RB'ed), PLUS assuming NK is saved by doc:

openly towncleared:
news host (+gets info on their target out)

openly towncleared if target claims:
paper delivery boy
door darter

openly towncleared if no counter claim or copy from mail man:
a) private investigator
a) middle manager (plus two info that needs sorting but that can be done)
b) detective
b) internal affairs
b) electoral comission officer (plus two useful info that needs more sorting since one useless info is mixed in)
c) ruber driver
c) pollster

outs the sicko if docsave is one of the above and if lobbyist finds out their role with no further claims of success/failure:
curfew enforcer

depending on the role/alignment of the target, a few more peeps are outed. That would be a pretty fast game for town.

but this is the best case scenario. We shouldn't expect that to happen.


===============

Assuming two town don't participate in the directed PR system:

Plus assuming sicko RB's a town role (randomly) plus assuming curfew enforcer doesn't hit sicko, plus no doc save:

random chance for town roles not to participate:
roll 9 (hits ECO)
roll 10 (hits middle manager)

random chance for sicko to hit town:
roll 14 (hits lobbyist)

random chance for curfew enforcer to hit:
roll 19 (hits lobbyist too, what are the chances)

random chance for mafia to hit:
roll 7 (hits mail man)

openly towncleared:
news host (+gets info on their target out)

three people claim alignment return:
looks good but one mafia is hiding unknowingly to town since ECO didn't participate

two people claim role return:
looks good but one mafia is hiding unknowingly to town since middle manager didn't participate

two people claiming target:
appears to be town and are actual both town but might cause shade if one of the upper two tiers flip mafia

a bunch of successful/failure claims (including doc, lobbyist and some fake claims)

after EoD people know that lobbyist was rb'ed though


so with that scenario, there seemed to be quite the chance of misinformation happening and mafia hiding while getting to know some good detective/private detective



So it seems to me, the directed system isn't fool proof, especially when not every town participates.

any thoughts?

There is a lot of interaction between roles, so the results will vary based on what role is being targeted by each role, and by what roles target mafia vs. town, so I don't think we can know for sure how effective the plan will be without running a large number of simulations. However, based on my experience with these type of games, I feel the probability is high that the plan will help town, and I don't think there is that much downside in that the mafia can't benefit that much. Maybe they could NK some of the better roles earlier, but we need to know who has what role to effectively use the roles while we have them.

hmm, I accept this as your opinion, but I see possibilities that the mafia choose flashy return messages to be considered in a pool of potential high value roles (for example the role or alignment return messages) to avoid the dayvotes. If they get to D5 without any of them being revealed, it's do or die for us.

Maybe I'm wrong and just been too cautious, but something rings in the back of my head and tries to warn me about it, I just can't put my finger on it.

I am sure the mafia will do what they can to try to hide, but I think we can significantly limit their options. We can use N2 and N3 actions to sort the pools where the mafia are hiding.

[worcej]

worcej ISO really reinforces my gut that he is mafia.

Interesting. So I read it and I came to the usual conclusion that I can't really read him. He mostly didn't do anything notable except his townread of Frog. He doesn't strike me as the type to be impressed like that, but I just don't see a scum motivation for him to lie.

The only thing that would make him more likely scum to me is if the top wagons were all town when he voted Chaqa.

So I townlean him, but not sure.

I’m curious what makes me hard to read, but you can tell me post-game if you remember this.

[bozotheclown]

Can I just say no offense to babyspice but I feel like regardless of what my power is, it is going to pretty boring being used on baby spice who is probably town. They didnt even know how to send the GM a message to submit a night action, which if they were mafia theyd be in a discord and wouldnt even need to use the forum message system to send a night action. usually the discord template has a mafia actions section where scum members submit both their factional kills and their other night actions. Assuming monarch used the discord template, baby spice would have to be really playing dumb there to be anything other than spewed town now

Ah, that is a very neat townslip from baby, thank you for noting this bomb.

It would be funny if brainbomb told her to do that in mafia chat.

[brainbomb]

@brain this is his first post on 42-44 except for saying he's catching up. Seems legit.

that for whatever reason would appear to be the only stance of any kind he took so far was that frog should be above even being looked at

What about the stance that you or Jamie should die? Does that not count?

a total cop out basically.