Mafia 85: Return from Lockdown

[Jamiet99uk]

Maybe Jamiet was trying out my method and legitimately forgot that Will wasn't his teammate.

Funny.

I preferred Lfischl over JustWill, that's all.

wait...what?

You weren't consciously trying to make it an odd number of people on the leading 2 wagons to avoid a tie?

I literally moved my vote to avoid a tie.

The question Brainbomb and Sweet were speculating about was why I preferred to move to Lfischl rather than JustWill. So I commented on that.

You are skimming quickly and asking questions that you could see the answers to if you slowed down and looked at the context.

[Kakarroto]

huh? My head hurts and I don't understand this.

But I slept the night...so calling it a win

probably because I'm fixated on a role and overestimate its value. But I'm glad you had a nice sleep, hope it was comfy.

oh...you think the person who gets told who they voted for will self-identify quickly and learn...they dumb?

maybe?

[Jamiet99uk]

Funny.

I preferred Lfischl over JustWill, that's all.

wait...what?

You weren't consciously trying to make it an odd number of people on the leading 2 wagons to avoid a tie?

I literally moved my vote to avoid a tie.

The question Brainbomb and Sweet were speculating about was why I preferred to move to Lfischl rather than JustWill. So I commented on that.

You are skimming quickly and asking questions that you could see the answers to if you slowed down and looked at the context.

Sorry if I seem tetchy but you're doing Bob's thing where you ask a question about a single post in isolation even though that post is very obviously one part of a conversation. It's annoying because it requires redundant extra posts to answer even though the context was already plainly available.

[BunnyGo]

Making this list for when people start figuring out who they are:

Roles to target an enemy:
1.Detective (can target friend too) - hard to ID, needs to return both TOWN and MAFIA and recognize it is the role of the player targeted and not the Electoral Commision Officer. VERY useful once known. Your results will also be VERY useful to town if you die.
2.Ruber Driver - useful to see who the scum are targeting; won't target teammates. Hard to ID, needs to return a name and then have reason to believe that name was the target.
3.Mail Man (can target friend too...but is effectively a cop+ once you ID). Easy to ID if you can survive...just have to get a couple different returns that are incompatible.
4.Curfew enforcer (role block). Very hard to ID, will think you are the doctor UNLESS you can see everyone's FAIL claims so you can find the correlation. Good reason for us to claim our FAILS.
5.Electoral Commision Officer (also good to target friend). Very hard to ID. Needs to return TOWN and MAFIA and recognize it as the role of the player previously voted for by target. VERY useful once known. Your results will also be very useful to town if you die.
6.News Host - Very EASY to ID...the person who sees their return posted to public can say so (if they're claiming their return) and then News Host will know...but so will Scum.

Roles to target a friend:
1.Doctor - hard to ID, needs to heard "success" a bunch, or actually get lucky and save the kill.
2.Private Investigator (can target enemy too) - to ID need to see role and then have reason to believe this is your target's role. Repeat as necessary. GOOD TO CLAIM TO HELP TOWN.
3.Paper Delivery Boy - Assume you are he and NEVER ACCURATELY CLAIM YOUR RETURN if you get a "delivered" response. Would even consider completely lying about your response to avoid scum scrutiny.
4.Middle Manager - Like the Private Investigator but returns your targets targets role. Good to claim so if/when you die people can piece it together.
5.Lobbyist - Hard to ID. Need to hear "success" and notice pattern that your target is constantly on wagons with an extra vote.

Roles for nothing:
1.Internal Affairs - easy to assume until otherwise proven, needs to keep returning TOWN
2.Human Resources - he dead.
3.Door-Darter - Assume you are the Paper Delivery Boy and DO NOT ACCURATELY CLAIM your return. Target a friend...bring them food.
4.Polster - Thankfully easy to ID. Just notice the pattern.

Mafia Roles:
1.Corrupt Cop
2.Sicko
3.Police Commissioner
4.DaDa Driver
5.E-Mail Hacker

[BunnyGo]

wait...what?

You weren't consciously trying to make it an odd number of people on the leading 2 wagons to avoid a tie?

I literally moved my vote to avoid a tie.

The question Brainbomb and Sweet were speculating about was why I preferred to move to Lfischl rather than JustWill. So I commented on that.

You are skimming quickly and asking questions that you could see the answers to if you slowed down and looked at the context.

Sorry if I seem tetchy but you're doing Bob's thing where you ask a question about a single post in isolation even though that post is very obviously one part of a conversation. It's annoying because it requires redundant extra posts to answer even though the context was already plainly available.

I understood and read all that.

You had 2 options once you decide to change vote to avoid tie:

1) swap leading wagons
2) leave leading wagons entirely

Advantage of option 1: makes a 2 vote lead so a new person joining doesn't tie again

Disadvantage of option 1: If someone on other wagon cross posts same thing....you guys retie

Advantage of option 2: It's less commonly done, AND if nobody else does it, then there's an odd number of people on the leading wagons now so a tie is impossible.

Disadvantage of option 2: If someone outside the wagons joins...may recause a tie.


I assumed you had this in mind. But you really were voting your preference at the literal last second when your motivation was to avoid a tie?

[BunnyGo]

<snip>
But you really were voting your preference at the literal last second when your motivation was to avoid a tie?

If this isn't clear...I find that weird. From you. Weird from you to claim you had the motivation of breaking a tie but then act in some way else. Then to go back and claim you were just voting your preference instead of claiming your were voting to achieve your objective.

[Kakarroto]

I read "care" to mean "would rather it did not happen because they would feel it harms them".

hmm I see. So you didn't take into account that getting information about PR would help mafia, or at least it didn't cross your mind in terms of this question? Or do you think that point isn't too important?

Would you say that with the information of me mentioning the mafia-gets-PR-reads that it changes the meaning of foods question? Do you agree with me that there seems to be an agenda behind that phrasing? Or do you think I'm imagining things or even try to twist food?

I certainly did take that into account, thank you for not assuming my thought process.

I think mechanically solving the role distribution is very bad for Mafia because it will very much narrow down the POE. There are some town roles that have no Mafia equivalent. This outweighs any benefit to them in potentially killing the more powerful town PRs, in my assessment.

I townread Foodcost and therefore I think you are over-analysing his wording.

hmm, I see.

sure, if we can mechanically solve it fast enough. Do we need this system though? Lets think about it.

There are 15 PR roles. 14 after wills flip. Sorted after return message:

success/failure
doctor
curfew enforcer
news host (plus tells what your target returns in a 'TELL EVERYONE' way, probably GM post)
lobbyist (doubling targets vote next day, only visible at EoD)

alignment
detective
internal affairs (only town)
electoral comission officer (from previous dayvote)

role
private investigator
middle manager (targets target)

delivered/undelivered
paper delivery boy (+ sending own name)
door darter (+ sending 'food')

target
ruber driver (target of target)
pollster (previous dayvote)

copy targets message (+1 to all other returns)
mail man


So, the biggest group of success/failure was lowered with wills flip (human resources), who would also had the chance of robbing some town of their chance to gain information. Looking back, that's pretty lucky, at least for our info gain. So there is only the mafia role 'sicko' who could do that now. Well it now hits 100% one town, but at least there is less chance a second town gets blocked. And only in case if we had voted the sicko out we would've had the chance that every town would get their info without manipulation. Still, curfew enforcer still exist too.

With the existing of the sicko, there is even in a directed system one town that doesn't get their info from their role action. So no advantage.

news host would be outed in our directed system. With free form, they will be hidden and have a good chance to know their role D2.

lobbyist depending on EoD2 vote. Could be outed in directed system, could know themselves and hide in free form, but that depends on many factors of the vote.

curfew enforcer will be outed if target claims (or is mafia not claiming, then they know this at night) in our directed system. In free form, they can hide, with knowing who they are if target claims to be 'staying inside'.

so really only doctor gets no special information now (well, in case someone gets saved maybe, but with no information about that, that's a huge guess), if we disregard any roleblocked town

Regarding alignment group:

if detective or ECO gets 'mafia' in return, they know they can only be one of them (or mail man); but they can hide in our free form and gain more information and go from there. Plus crumbs exist. In our directed system? Prime target, I think.

regarding role group:

they just need to find out if they get info from their target or their targets target. Still, as above, just better.

regarding delivery group:

paper boy and door darter can easily know their role if their targets reveal that they got a visit (without outing them of course). In our directed system, both are instantly outed and mafia targets. Though if mafia hunts for detective or such, then they remain alive locktown. Hmm.

target group:

well they get a name. Pollster can get to know their role D2. Ruber driver might be able to do so too. Though mail man could be tricky, so probably D3 they know

mail man:

needs to at least wait until D3 anyway to know their role.


Well, what I can see here, there might be a situation that we get enough townclears so mafia can't nk them all. So hmmm.

But if we fail to get to that situation, then mafia has all the information for their nk. There are a lot of town clears though. So hmm ... hmm ... hmm.

Need to think about this more.

[Jamiet99uk]

I literally moved my vote to avoid a tie.

The question Brainbomb and Sweet were speculating about was why I preferred to move to Lfischl rather than JustWill. So I commented on that.

You are skimming quickly and asking questions that you could see the answers to if you slowed down and looked at the context.

Sorry if I seem tetchy but you're doing Bob's thing where you ask a question about a single post in isolation even though that post is very obviously one part of a conversation. It's annoying because it requires redundant extra posts to answer even though the context was already plainly available.

I understood and read all that.

You had 2 options once you decide to change vote to avoid tie:

1) swap leading wagons
2) leave leading wagons entirely

Advantage of option 1: makes a 2 vote lead so a new person joining doesn't tie again

Disadvantage of option 1: If someone on other wagon cross posts same thing....you guys retie

Advantage of option 2: It's less commonly done, AND if nobody else does it, then there's an odd number of people on the leading wagons now so a tie is impossible.

Disadvantage of option 2: If someone outside the wagons joins...may recause a tie.

I assumed you had this in mind. But you really were voting your preference at the literal last second when your motivation was to avoid a tie?

The vote was tied and I had to make a split-second decision. I did not have time to draft a 500 word options appraisal and reflect on it over a glass of brandy. In that split second, to avoid a tie, I moved my vote to Lfishl because I marginally scumread him more than JustWill and I had a gut concern that possibly JustWill was merely bad, confused town, rather than lying scum. Maybe I had Bob's criticism ringing in my ears to some extent too.

Like I say, my immediate objective in that split second was to avoid a tie. I did not have time to reflect much beyond that.

[Jamiet99uk]

<snip>
But you really were voting your preference at the literal last second when your motivation was to avoid a tie?

If this isn't clear...I find that weird. From you. Weird from you to claim you had the motivation of breaking a tie but then act in some way else. Then to go back and claim you were just voting your preference instead of claiming your were voting to achieve your objective.

I did not "act in some way else". Your own analysis of Option 1 vs Option 2 shows that there are plenty of situations in which Option 2 would safely break a tie.

[Kakarroto]

just noticed, failed to see that in the delivery group in my previous post, if they target mafia and they don't claim in free form, they don't get their information plus mafia has their info. Hmm, but would that so helpful? They would see 'delivered' but no one claiming. Well they could think they are mail man. But still, they would sus their target if there aren't two people who claim they got an item. So I guess mafia has to claim it or risk getting detected.

hmm. so they would still know what they are, only that it's hidden for town and mafia would know in a free form system. Not too bad, i think, though mafia could decide to just nk them and not hunt detective if they think their chances are too low.

[foodcoats]

No. I expect lots of people to do so. I might. I haven't really given it any thought yet.

The most important thing to consider, in my opinion, is that we can’t draw any meaningful clues from our returns without cross-referencing to other claimed returns. If we don’t claim, we basically throw away our powers. I suspect scum will not throw away theirs!

I think that if we don’t all claim, we make it harder for ALL town players to fully understand the meaning of their powers (consider getting a “town” return in isolation; who are you and what do you know?). Whoever does not claim actively deprives others of the fun of their role - and deprives themselves of the chance to learn valuable information and contribute to a shared Team Town victory!

Also, given that scum aren’t all vanilla goons, we are extra pooched if we don’t try to use our powers!

Stop using logic against me. Your jedi mind tricks won't work.

I see what you're saying. It will be difficult to know what results mean without collective results. I guess I mostly disagree with losing my choice of target.

For tonight, what specific value do you believe there is in choosing a target versus having a target randomly assigned?

[foodcoats]

A question for all the good people…

Who thinks that scum don’t care about us mass claiming?

SCUM CARE ABOUT TOWN MASS CLAIMING
1.
2.
3…

SCUM DON’T CARE ABOUT TOWN MASS CLAIMING
1.
2.
3…

I don't think reframing this debate as pro-scum vs. anti-scum is productive to convincing people. Those of us with misgivings will wind up with a stink of scum because we didn't go along with groupthink.

You smell nice either way - you have a dog it seems and I like how dogs smell!

But what do you think scum would prefer? Town mass claim or no town mass claim?

[BobMcBob]

<snip>
But you really were voting your preference at the literal last second when your motivation was to avoid a tie?

If this isn't clear...I find that weird. From you. Weird from you to claim you had the motivation of breaking a tie but then act in some way else. Then to go back and claim you were just voting your preference instead of claiming your were voting to achieve your objective.

I'm gonna be honest, I seriously considered doing option 2, but not option 1 because I was overthinking the wagon crossing thing. But it is a weird explanation given his vote move was at the very last second (actually after it according to the bot) so moving anywhere else would've achieved the exact same thing.

[foodcoats]

I'm happy to announce the result of my night action. Don't think I'll be coordinating with that list though.

What makes you not want to coordinate targets?

[foodcoats]

Food, you voted me about 2 and a half hours from EoD with no explanation. What was your reasoning and what were you hoping to achieve?

Balancing out wagons, same reasons I scumread you before.

[Jamiet99uk]

<snip>
But you really were voting your preference at the literal last second when your motivation was to avoid a tie?

If this isn't clear...I find that weird. From you. Weird from you to claim you had the motivation of breaking a tie but then act in some way else. Then to go back and claim you were just voting your preference instead of claiming your were voting to achieve your objective.

I'm gonna be honest, I seriously considered doing option 2, but not option 1 because I was overthinking the wagon crossing thing. But it is a weird explanation given his vote move was at the very last second (actually after it according to the bot) so moving anywhere else would've achieved the exact same thing.

BabySpice voted with around 1 minute to go until the deadline. Until that vote was cast there was no tie to break. I had a choice between acting at the very last second, or not acting at all.

It is both of you who are being weird by suggesting that I had some pre-meditated plan.

I would not be surprised if one of you is scum trying to create noise and smoke in the thread by getting me annoyed. BunnyGo has history of doing that; you are apparently just a naturally annoying person, Bob. So I wonder which of you it is.

[BobMcBob]

Food, you voted me about 2 and a half hours from EoD with no explanation. What was your reasoning and what were you hoping to achieve?

Balancing out wagons, same reasons I scumread you before.

The fact that I voted for fisch? Were you feeling less convinced by the sweet wagon or did you just want to keep the wagons even? Did you notice worcej had moved his vote?

[BobMcBob]

Diplomacy&Warfare, seeing as you're lurking here, what are your thoughts now that we know Will was town?

[Kakarroto]

Assuming we ALL chose to participate in the directed PR system:

Plus assuming there will be no roleblocks for town because curfew enforcer hits sicko (I first thought they would act in the same phase but it turns out the curfew enforcer is faster so there is a chance that mafia RB is town RB'ed), PLUS assuming NK is saved by doc:

openly towncleared:
news host (+gets info on their target out)

openly towncleared if target claims:
paper delivery boy
door darter

openly towncleared if no counter claim or copy from mail man:
a) private investigator
a) middle manager (plus two info that needs sorting but that can be done)
b) detective
b) internal affairs
b) electoral comission officer (plus two useful info that needs more sorting since one useless info is mixed in)
c) ruber driver
c) pollster

outs the sicko if docsave is one of the above and if lobbyist finds out their role with no further claims of success/failure:
curfew enforcer

depending on the role/alignment of the target, a few more peeps are outed. That would be a pretty fast game for town.

but this is the best case scenario. We shouldn't expect that to happen.


===============

Assuming two town don't participate in the directed PR system:

Plus assuming sicko RB's a town role (randomly) plus assuming curfew enforcer doesn't hit sicko, plus no doc save:

random chance for town roles not to participate:
roll 9 (hits ECO)
roll 10 (hits middle manager)

random chance for sicko to hit town:
roll 14 (hits lobbyist)

random chance for curfew enforcer to hit:
roll 19 (hits lobbyist too, what are the chances)

random chance for mafia to hit:
roll 7 (hits mail man)

openly towncleared:
news host (+gets info on their target out)

three people claim alignment return:
looks good but one mafia is hiding unknowingly to town since ECO didn't participate

two people claim role return:
looks good but one mafia is hiding unknowingly to town since middle manager didn't participate

two people claiming target:
appears to be town and are actual both town but might cause shade if one of the upper two tiers flip mafia

a bunch of successful/failure claims (including doc, lobbyist and some fake claims)

after EoD people know that lobbyist was rb'ed though


so with that scenario, there seemed to be quite the chance of misinformation happening and mafia hiding while getting to know some good detective/private detective



So it seems to me, the directed system isn't fool proof, especially when not every town participates.

any thoughts?

[heartthrob24909]

So currently Bob, Chaqa and lfischl are vocally opposed to trying to coordinate our roles to get information because it “isn’t fun.” I find that really strange… maybe I’m just a competitive person? Do most of you not care about trying to win? Why play?

They are a combination of obstinate morons and/or scum.

I'm not so sure about that. Need to think more.

At least I think it might be a mistake to post your messages right on D2. Maybe it's better to wait for EoN2.

There is another advantage if we do the system: saving the messages for later when people flip, so we aren't without information of their actions after a flip (if someone forgets to post them if they are targeted by vote or nk). But as I said, I need to think more about that.

Can you explain the last paragraph more? I'm not fully following