M1027: Community - Game Thread

[ghug]

@sweetie
@Bishkek
@Chaqa
@JamJam
@worc
@rDr
Not ghug cuz hes gonna die anyway
@hearty


I want you all to see my math because I really believe I have something here

I can say with confidence that your proposal is something, namely a proposal.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

REVISED EDITION bc I cannot spell

INVESTIGATE SWEET/ BK3K PLAN
——————————————————
(I will be using (A) as an example of the investigator’s target and sweet as the community target for simplicity’s sake)

In any case: ghug will be killed and someone else will as well. This leaves it 5-2 at the beginning of D5

OPTION 1: (A) was found be the investigator to be a DIFFERENT ALIGNMENT from sweet
In this scenario it is smartest to kill (A). If (A) is found to be mafia, we have two confirmed clears. This means we would have 4-1 going into D6 with one confirmed clear (if mafia is smart enough to kill one of the clears)

If (A), after being killed, is found to be town, we win the game, as that would mean BK and sweet are the two remaining mafia

OPTION 2: (A) was found by the investigator to be the SAME ALIGNMENT as sweet

In this scenario we have three confirmed clears [BK,
sweet, and (A)], and one investigator who (at that point if they were not NKed), should reveal themselves. We
would then have 4 clears in a 5-2 scenario. We win the game by process of elimination.

There is a tiny flaw here. If going into the next night with option 1, we might be at 4-1 with no confirmed clear. You assume that sweet and I survive the NK in the way to 5-2. Which isn't the case. But I guess one of dying clears the other.

I’m glad you brought this up. We would go into the day up 5-2 with two clears plus investigator. This leaves 3 clears and 4 unlcears.

Worst case scenario we miskill and go 4-2.
After investigator dies, we would go 3-2 with two clears. This leaves 3 unclears; two of which are mafia.

Investigator would then investigate one of the unclears. If we get the innocent, we know exactly who the two other mafia are. If we get a mafia, we kill the mafia. At this point we go up 3-1.

One of the two clears dies. Town goes up 2-1 with one clear. That clear will then have a 50-50 chance of winning.

50% chance of winning is our worst case scenario! And this is only if
1. Sweet and BK are not the two mafia
2. The investigator target is found to be the same team as sweet and BK
3. We miskill at Final 7
4. We investigate 1 of the mafia instead of the last remaining innocent unlcear.

[rdrivera2005]

##vote Ghug

I think Will is probably right, if B3K and Sweet are both scum they cold just concede. If they are town and we got another town on scan it's autowin with 4 clears. But in this case won't scum just kill one of them to avoid this? With two clears and Investigator it's still not autowin but I think with another scan it's auto.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Edit to post above: Investigator would do their last investigation the same night that they would end up dying.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

##vote Ghug

I think Will is probably right, if B3K and Sweet are both scum they cold just concede. If they are town and we got another town on scan it's autowin with 4 clears. But in this case won't scum just kill one of them to avoid this? With two clears and Investigator it's still not autowin but I think with another scan it's auto.

I did math above. Very unlikely.

[BK3K]

REVISED EDITION bc I cannot spell

INVESTIGATE SWEET/ BK3K PLAN
——————————————————
(I will be using (A) as an example of the investigator’s target and sweet as the community target for simplicity’s sake)

In any case: ghug will be killed and someone else will as well. This leaves it 5-2 at the beginning of D5

OPTION 1: (A) was found be the investigator to be a DIFFERENT ALIGNMENT from sweet
In this scenario it is smartest to kill (A). If (A) is found to be mafia, we have two confirmed clears. This means we would have 4-1 going into D6 with one confirmed clear (if mafia is smart enough to kill one of the clears)

If (A), after being killed, is found to be town, we win the game, as that would mean BK and sweet are the two remaining mafia

OPTION 2: (A) was found by the investigator to be the SAME ALIGNMENT as sweet

In this scenario we have three confirmed clears [BK,
sweet, and (A)], and one investigator who (at that point if they were not NKed), should reveal themselves. We
would then have 4 clears in a 5-2 scenario. We win the game by process of elimination.

There is a tiny flaw here. If going into the next night with option 1, we might be at 4-1 with no confirmed clear. You assume that sweet and I survive the NK in the way to 5-2. Which isn't the case. But I guess one of dying clears the other.

In which case, we will still be in the same shape? Probably.

Yeah, scan me

It would confirm that A is the scum and we're killing them anyway. So we could be at a 4-1 with no confirmation. Not solved persay, but in good shape

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

There is a tiny flaw here. If going into the next night with option 1, we might be at 4-1 with no confirmed clear. You assume that sweet and I survive the NK in the way to 5-2. Which isn't the case. But I guess one of dying clears the other.

In which case, we will still be in the same shape? Probably.

Yeah, scan me

It would confirm that A is the scum and we're killing them anyway. So we could be at a 4-1 with no confirmation. Not solved persay, but in good shape

No, because worst case scenario we now have two clears in sweet and you, and if one of you were the NK, we would have one clear plus investigator. Two clears plus one more scan the following night using either you or sweet (now confirmed innocent) to clear another

[BK3K]

REVISED EDITION bc I cannot spell

INVESTIGATE SWEET/ BK3K PLAN
——————————————————
(I will be using (A) as an example of the investigator’s target and sweet as the community target for simplicity’s sake)

In any case: ghug will be killed and someone else will as well. This leaves it 5-2 at the beginning of D5

OPTION 1: (A) was found be the investigator to be a DIFFERENT ALIGNMENT from sweet
In this scenario it is smartest to kill (A). If (A) is found to be mafia, we have two confirmed clears. This means we would have 4-1 going into D6 with one confirmed clear (if mafia is smart enough to kill one of the clears)

If (A), after being killed, is found to be town, we win the game, as that would mean BK and sweet are the two remaining mafia

OPTION 2: (A) was found by the investigator to be the SAME ALIGNMENT as sweet

In this scenario we have three confirmed clears [BK,
sweet, and (A)], and one investigator who (at that point if they were not NKed), should reveal themselves. We
would then have 4 clears in a 5-2 scenario. We win the game by process of elimination.

There is a tiny flaw here. If going into the next night with option 1, we might be at 4-1 with no confirmed clear. You assume that sweet and I survive the NK in the way to 5-2. Which isn't the case. But I guess one of dying clears the other.

I’m glad you brought this up. We would go into the day up 5-2 with two clears plus investigator. This leaves 3 clears and 4 unlcears.

Worst case scenario we miskill and go 4-2.
After investigator dies, we would go 3-2 with two clears. This leaves 3 unclears; two of which are mafia.

Investigator would then investigate one of the unclears. If we get the innocent, we know exactly who the two other mafia are. If we get a mafia, we kill the mafia. At this point we go up 3-1.

One of the two clears dies. Town goes up 2-1 with one clear. That clear will then have a 50-50 chance of winning.

50% chance of winning is our worst case scenario! And this is only if
1. Sweet and BK are not the two mafia
2. The investigator target is found to be the same team as sweet and BK
3. We miskill at Final 7
4. We investigate 1 of the mafia instead of the last remaining innocent unlcear.

And if both sweet and I survive, there is no need for additional scans?

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

There is a tiny flaw here. If going into the next night with option 1, we might be at 4-1 with no confirmed clear. You assume that sweet and I survive the NK in the way to 5-2. Which isn't the case. But I guess one of dying clears the other.

I’m glad you brought this up. We would go into the day up 5-2 with two clears plus investigator. This leaves 3 clears and 4 unlcears.

Worst case scenario we miskill and go 4-2.
After investigator dies, we would go 3-2 with two clears. This leaves 3 unclears; two of which are mafia.

Investigator would then investigate one of the unclears. If we get the innocent, we know exactly who the two other mafia are. If we get a mafia, we kill the mafia. At this point we go up 3-1.

One of the two clears dies. Town goes up 2-1 with one clear. That clear will then have a 50-50 chance of winning.

50% chance of winning is our worst case scenario! And this is only if
1. Sweet and BK are not the two mafia
2. The investigator target is found to be the same team as sweet and BK
3. We miskill at Final 7
4. We investigate 1 of the mafia instead of the last remaining innocent unlcear.

And if both sweet and I survive, there is no need for additional scans?

Well a scan would just make a town victory even more likely! So are you arguing for my plan?

[BK3K]

There is a tiny flaw here. If going into the next night with option 1, we might be at 4-1 with no confirmed clear. You assume that sweet and I survive the NK in the way to 5-2. Which isn't the case. But I guess one of dying clears the other.

I’m glad you brought this up. We would go into the day up 5-2 with two clears plus investigator. This leaves 3 clears and 4 unlcears.

Worst case scenario we miskill and go 4-2.
After investigator dies, we would go 3-2 with two clears. This leaves 3 unclears; two of which are mafia.

Investigator would then investigate one of the unclears. If we get the innocent, we know exactly who the two other mafia are. If we get a mafia, we kill the mafia. At this point we go up 3-1.

One of the two clears dies. Town goes up 2-1 with one clear. That clear will then have a 50-50 chance of winning.

50% chance of winning is our worst case scenario! And this is only if
1. Sweet and BK are not the two mafia
2. The investigator target is found to be the same team as sweet and BK
3. We miskill at Final 7
4. We investigate 1 of the mafia instead of the last remaining innocent unlcear.

And if both sweet and I survive, there is no need for additional scans?

Will, I'm almost on board. Couple more edge cases tho.

What if we get to option 2, and we lost the investigator. Are we still ok?

What if I am the investigator, and am killed tonight?

[BK3K]

I’m glad you brought this up. We would go into the day up 5-2 with two clears plus investigator. This leaves 3 clears and 4 unlcears.

Worst case scenario we miskill and go 4-2.
After investigator dies, we would go 3-2 with two clears. This leaves 3 unclears; two of which are mafia.

Investigator would then investigate one of the unclears. If we get the innocent, we know exactly who the two other mafia are. If we get a mafia, we kill the mafia. At this point we go up 3-1.

One of the two clears dies. Town goes up 2-1 with one clear. That clear will then have a 50-50 chance of winning.

50% chance of winning is our worst case scenario! And this is only if
1. Sweet and BK are not the two mafia
2. The investigator target is found to be the same team as sweet and BK
3. We miskill at Final 7
4. We investigate 1 of the mafia instead of the last remaining innocent unlcear.

And if both sweet and I survive, there is no need for additional scans?

Well a scan would just make a town victory even more likely! So are you arguing for my plan?

I'm asking, if this next scan is our last scan, are we still ok?

##call GM. If the investigator is NK, do we still see the results?

[Chaqa]

Getting caught up but obviously
##Vote ghug
##END

[BK3K]

Getting caught up but obviously
##Vote ghug
##END

Don't end yet, I want 100% water proof Will's plan. I think it is, but I want to know before we go to night

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

I’m glad you brought this up. We would go into the day up 5-2 with two clears plus investigator. This leaves 3 clears and 4 unlcears.

Worst case scenario we miskill and go 4-2.
After investigator dies, we would go 3-2 with two clears. This leaves 3 unclears; two of which are mafia.

Investigator would then investigate one of the unclears. If we get the innocent, we know exactly who the two other mafia are. If we get a mafia, we kill the mafia. At this point we go up 3-1.

One of the two clears dies. Town goes up 2-1 with one clear. That clear will then have a 50-50 chance of winning.

50% chance of winning is our worst case scenario! And this is only if
1. Sweet and BK are not the two mafia
2. The investigator target is found to be the same team as sweet and BK
3. We miskill at Final 7
4. We investigate 1 of the mafia instead of the last remaining innocent unlcear.

And if both sweet and I survive, there is no need for additional scans?

Will, I'm almost on board. Couple more edge cases tho.

What if we get to option 2, and we lost the investigator. Are we still ok?

What if I am the investigator, and am killed tonight?

If investigator dies, we have a very good chance of winning. We have three clears and four unclears.

You have played an exceedingly poor game if you are investigator. Sweet would not scan himself, as being scanned is a death sentence. Person (A) would not be the investigator as the investigator would not scan themselves.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Getting caught up but obviously
##Vote ghug
##END

Don't end yet, I want 100% water proof Will's plan. I think it is, but I want to know before we go to night

If you are the investigator, props to ya, you have fooled me. But I think you would have stood up to you being the scan if you were truly investigator.

[BK3K]

And if both sweet and I survive, there is no need for additional scans?

Will, I'm almost on board. Couple more edge cases tho.

What if we get to option 2, and we lost the investigator. Are we still ok?

What if I am the investigator, and am killed tonight?

If investigator dies, we have a very good chance of winning. We have three clears and four unclears.

You have played an exceedingly poor game if you are investigator. Sweet would not scan himself, as being scanned is a death sentence. Person (A) would not be the investigator as the investigator would not scan themselves.

Could they scan themself tho? And maybe I have played poorly. Your math is supposed to be 100%. Not 100% as long as people aren't dumb. And boy am I dumb. I'm so so close to being bought in. But I want to know it's air tight.

[sweetandcool]

##CALL GM

If the investigator gets NK, do we still receive the last night's result?

I assume not, but I want to verify.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

The only possible scenario where this doesn’t nearly guarantee a victory is if BK is the investigator. If BK is investigator and dies, using my proposed plan of scanning BK,

BK would choose (A) to be his personal target. If he is mafia, hooray! Now we have only 1 mafia with one clear, sweet. Very good odds!

If he is innocent. We have two clears. Good odds.

[sweetandcool]

This sucks, I'm too busy and ya'll are ending like morons.

I think Will's plan works, if the investigator scan goes through when killed.

But it really shouldn't go through, so his plan stinks bad.

Stop ending!!!!!

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

##CALL GM

If the investigator gets NK, do we still receive the last night's result?

I assume not, but I want to verify.

If we do not get the results, I will redo my math. Still think its weird that BK and sweet are the two most against this even thought it will clear them both.