I like this.
##Vote Hamilton
#1242 Post by Chaqa » Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:15 pm
Hmm. This is compelling, however.sweetandcool wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 5:34 pmDoes scum Ham write this post? I'm really thinking not.Hamilton Brian wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 4:55 pmThat seems spurious (?) as reasons to scumread them. Were kak and darg really opposing co-ordination? And the ostensible demands for proof/verification from jamie are a big town tell for me. This seems pretty fabricated-on-demand...but I don't think anyone demanded them.TheMadMonarch wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:42 pmtop scum reads rn
1. Kak
2. Darg
3. Jamie
Kak and darg for opposing co-ordination. Jamie is just kinda going crazy
We know two out of the three players in this list are town.
Case 1: Ham is scum.
Does Ham try to throw doubt on a list of scumreads that is at least 66% town? Is he trying to distance from a teammate (Mad) by bussing and having opposite reads? Could Jamiet be his teammate?
Case 2: Ham is Town.
Then Ham saw Mad's post, totally disagreed and felt the need to reply and tell Mad what was what.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
While it is possible, I sincerely doubt Case 1. This post is more likely organic, and now that we know two of the players on the scum list he was arguing against were town, it indicates to me that he is town.
#1244 Post by ghug » Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:17 pm
I don't think either of those statements are inaccurate. I think the but you're missing is that Jamie often fakes emotion as scum because he knows it tracks with his town persona, and I'm often quick to scumread him when I can't see where his feelings are coming from. Jamie dismissed me this game with the claim that I always scumread him.heartthrob24909 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:06 pmI think I wrote a bit about it earlier but its me making some assumptions based on observations:
- Jamie tends to get incensed when he is scumread with what he believes to be inadequate support
- You and Jamie have played together enough where you might know this
If these don't seem true then let me know. Trying to thread things together as I can. BK3K also casted a Jamie vote because of the "loudness" but that's more NAI to me based on work games with BK3K where he has a tendency to find himself in opposition to some of the louder players in that crowd, too.
#1245 Post by Chaqa » Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:17 pm
This is a quality post.heartthrob24909 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 8:18 pmDay 1 Retold. Disclaimer that this is story is told through my voice; I tried to prioritize accuracy and brevity so while I did my best to adequately summarize events, it is possible that they may not be truly representative of what took place and to get further detail you should read the original thread.
Early Day
- Day 1 famously begins with an argument between Jamie and Sweet centered around a post of Sweet's which Jamie interpreted as PR hunting. Hijinks ensue.
- Bozo starts the mech discussion immediately, which TheMadMonarch sees, so she chimes in with her own proposal.
- Ghug casts a vote for Sweet and agrees with Jamie's opinion on Bozo's mech proposal. Townreads Bozo, Monarch
- Sweet sees some interesting stuff in the thread.
- Darg's welcome post is an endorsement of both mech plans with a slight preference for Monarch's.
- Enter Kak. Skepticism over Ghug's townreading Bozo and Monarch. Proposes ideas relating to mechs.
- Monarch implies disappointment in her role, implies that were she scum she would not have shared her mech plan.
- Rdr chimes in with some mech-related thoughts and asks Kak to clarify a point.
- Kak expresses hesitancies over the mech plans; Monarch casts a vote for Kak in response. Kak and Jamie have a back-and-forth regarding why Kak doesn't like the plans; in the process, Kak suggests that he finds Monarch more scumlike than Bozo as it relates to this conversation
- Enter BK3K, who proposes the same mech idea Monarch did before reading the thread to see that Monarch had done so.
- Darg makes his fateful post regarding lack of confidence in the Bozo and Monarch plans.
- Heartthrob arrives and shares lots of mech-related thoughts in response to what other players have put forth; ultimately endorses Bozo's plan
- Jamie and Sweet resume their fight. I do think that initially, Sweet misunderstands why Jamie has picked the fight.
- Jamie asks some questions about the inconsistencies in Sweet's Jamie accusation while Sweet continues to loudly and confidently scumread Jamie. In the ensuing events Sweet tends to miss the questions Jamie is directing at him, instead opting to focusing on the fact that the fight is happening. In the midst of the fight, Ghug will cast a vote for Jamie.
- Ghug, Jamie, Sweet, Chaqa, Heartthrob, Just, Monarch engage in more mech discussion
- Worcej arrives, casts votes (for Jamie and Rdr), makes jokes. Townreads Kak
- BK3K votes for Jamie for making a lot of noise
- Chaqa and Just cast votes for Damo, trying to draw him out to play.
- Ghug casts his Darg vote
- Jamie and Just argue.
- Worcej points out at least twice that mech discussers should not get towncred for discussing mechs
My Takes:
- Ghug's Jamie vote feels weird to me. Idk how much the two of them have played together but I gather they have more history than I do with either of them. To me, Jamie just feels like someone who is particularly reactive about reads of Jamie. If this is true, it raises my eyebrow that someone who knows him better wouldn't also have this opinion. I don't see anything that indicates that Ghug's vote was not meant in earnest.
- Lots of mech talk; raw plan proposals feel NAI to me so not a lot here.
- That being said: light townlean on BK3K for proposing the same idea Monarch did. Knowing him from some work games, I feel like were he scum he would read the thread and endorse Monarch's idea to build towncred, rather than not read the thread or lie about not reading the thread. Subtle distinction but it did cross my mind.
- During the early phase, Monarch scumreads Kak, Darg, and Jamie. This feels NAI to me because its either lazy scum or lazy town.
Rest of analysis will focus on the vote as the major wagons have now started to form. As of this point in the day:
Kakarroto (3) TheMadMonarch dargorygel worcej
Jamiet99uk (2) sweetandcool BK3K
damo666 (2) Chaqa JustAGuyNamedWill
dargorygel (2) ghug heartthrob24909
No‑Kill (2) Kakarroto Jamiet99uk
sweetandcool (1) damo666
No votes yet from Bozo, Ham, Rdr
Within the next hour...
- BK3K votes for Damo, citing lack of playtime. This puts a Damo's wagon into the lead with Kak
- Rdr votes Darg because he doesn't find Darg's logic to be consistent with town reasoning. This moves the Darg wagon into the lead with Damo and Kak.
- Bozo votes for Darg, citing what Ghug shared about setup review conversations. This moves Darg into the lead. By D2 we know that all three of these leading wagons are town.
Another half hour passes...
- Bozo switches his vote to Ham (pocketing allegations) and Jamie to Sweet (no specifics; Sweet hadn't said anything in the past 3 minutes). It's a 3-way tie again. I like this move from Bozo
- Ham pledges allegience to Jamie and casts a(n invalid) vote for Sweet, and Sweet directly retaliates with a vote for Ham. I don't think either of these two look good here.
- Bozo points out that were Ham's vote legal, Sweet would be a fourth leading wagon with 3 votes:- Ham now casts a valid vote for Damo, putting his wagon into the lead.bozotheclown wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 7:22 pm
This is not a valid vote, but if it were, the voting would be:
Kakarroto (3) TheMadMonarch dargorygel worcej
damo666 (3) Chaqa JustAGuyNamedWill BK3K
dargorygel (3) ghug heartthrob24909 rdrivera2005
sweetandcool (3) damo666 Jamiet99uk Hamilton Brian
Hamilton Brian (2) bozotheclown sweetandcool
No‑Kill (1) Kakarroto
- Jamie moves off of Sweet to Damo (hasn't posted; has reads on everyone) and Sweet off of Ham to Kak (keeping it competitive). Damo, Kak, and Darg are now the only real wagons.
- Damo arrives (Just removes his Damo vote upon this arrival, tying Damo and Kak again), appears to softclaim Investigator, and votes for Kak. Minutes later votes Darg, unsuccessfully attempting to persuade Kak to do the same.
- Jamie votes for Just, arguing that Just has pushed for Jamie in ways which lacked substance.
- Chaqa casts a joke vote for Ham.
Last 90 minutes of the day:
- The Damo wagon will dissipate over the next few movements.
- Sweet and BK3K vote for Just for not knowing what Eiffel 65 is. Just is now a competitive wagon.
dargorygel (4) ghug heartthrob24909 rdrivera2005 damo666
Kakarroto (3) TheMadMonarch dargorygel worcej
JustAGuyNamedWill (3) Jamiet99uk sweetandcool BK3K
Hamilton Brian (2) bozotheclown Chaqa
damo666 (1) Hamilton Brian
No‑Kill (1) Kakarroto
Unvote (1) JustAGuyNamedWill
- Ham expresses distate for the leading wagons and votes for Just.
- Chaqa unvotes. Jamie moves from Just to Ham, expressing doubts about the Darg and Kak wagons.
- Just votes for Darg as a "placeholder" after railing against the existence of the wagon throughout several posts. This creates a safer margin between the Darg wagon and the Just wagon which still has two joke votes on it.
15 minutes left
- Just and Heartthrob vote for Ham, moving Ham into the lead.
- Sweet moves from Just to Darg, tying Darg with Ham.
- Heartthrob points out that Kak is actively +1ing posts while still not having voted for a player
- Chaqa votes for Kak and BK3K for Ham. Ham in the lead.
- Damo votes for Kak, tying it with 3 minutes left.
- Jamie, Just, and Heartthrob all moves their votes from Ham to Kak within the same minute. Day ends.
Kak, Damo, and Darg later flip town.
My takes, after going back through this:
- I have two main lines of thinking: (1) I think Ham looks bad and deserves skepticism; (2) I think those who were not as active in the EOD vote shuffle deserve skepticism.
- The final vote movement: Jamie, Just, and Heartthrob moved their votes from Ham to Kak in the final minutes of the day. Seeing as we all made the same movement from Ham to Kak, and ours were the only votes who moved after Damo tied the vote between those two, I don't think any one of the three of us comes out of this move looking any worse or better than the others. Knowing what we now do about Damo's alignment, the jump doesn't feel protective of the Ham wagon as it does trying to avoid a tie.
From D1 alone:
- Slightest of townleans: BK3K, Bozo
- Slightest of scumleans: Ghug, Ham
- Would like to see additional pressure on: Ghug, Ham, Chaqa, TheMadMonarch, Worcej, Rdr
#1246 Post by Chaqa » Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:17 pm
Can you explain your B3K and Will reads?ghug wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 8:44 pmI'm actually feeling pretty good about my PoE right now, which means I've probably missed someone.
Scum:
Macca, Brian
PoE scum:
rd
People I've townread but have some doubts on given the size of PoE or recent actions:
bozo, Jamie, worcej, Chaqa
Town:
heart, sweet, Bishkek, Will
Darg and ghug:
darg, ghug
#1247 Post by Chaqa » Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:18 pm
IckHamilton Brian wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:03 pmBozo is seemingly ironclad and immune from any looks so I'll shift.
##Vote TheMadMonarch
#1249 Post by heartthrob24909 » Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:24 pm
Yeah, and that's the missing piece for me - the extent to which he's aware of those emotional responses and uses it as a tactic.ghug wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:17 pmI don't think either of those statements are inaccurate. I think the but you're missing is that Jamie often fakes emotion as scum because he knows it tracks with his town persona, and I'm often quick to scumread him when I can't see where his feelings are coming from. Jamie dismissed me this game with the claim that I always scumread him.heartthrob24909 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:06 pmI think I wrote a bit about it earlier but its me making some assumptions based on observations:
- Jamie tends to get incensed when he is scumread with what he believes to be inadequate support
- You and Jamie have played together enough where you might know this
If these don't seem true then let me know. Trying to thread things together as I can. BK3K also casted a Jamie vote because of the "loudness" but that's more NAI to me based on work games with BK3K where he has a tendency to find himself in opposition to some of the louder players in that crowd, too.
#1250 Post by bozotheclown » Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:26 pm
Apparently it depends on who you ask. I meant it to mean that the mafia have a general tendency to spread out their votes among different wagons.
#1251 Post by Chaqa » Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:28 pm
Oh so we can just make basic concepts in the game our own thing's nowbozotheclown wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:26 pmApparently it depends on who you ask. I meant it to mean that the mafia have a general tendency to spread out their votes among different wagons.
#1252 Post by bozotheclown » Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:30 pm
I thought at the time that Hamilton could be pocketing them. I think he was too confident that Kakarroto and dargorygel were town.Chaqa wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:15 pmHmm. This is compelling, however.sweetandcool wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 5:34 pmDoes scum Ham write this post? I'm really thinking not.Hamilton Brian wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 4:55 pm
That seems spurious (?) as reasons to scumread them. Were kak and darg really opposing co-ordination? And the ostensible demands for proof/verification from jamie are a big town tell for me. This seems pretty fabricated-on-demand...but I don't think anyone demanded them.
We know two out of the three players in this list are town.
Case 1: Ham is scum.
Does Ham try to throw doubt on a list of scumreads that is at least 66% town? Is he trying to distance from a teammate (Mad) by bussing and having opposite reads? Could Jamiet be his teammate?
Case 2: Ham is Town.
Then Ham saw Mad's post, totally disagreed and felt the need to reply and tell Mad what was what.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
While it is possible, I sincerely doubt Case 1. This post is more likely organic, and now that we know two of the players on the scum list he was arguing against were town, it indicates to me that he is town.
#1254 Post by bozotheclown » Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:31 pm
Does this information change your read of ghug?heartthrob24909 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:24 pmYeah, and that's the missing piece for me - the extent to which he's aware of those emotional responses and uses it as a tactic.ghug wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:17 pmI don't think either of those statements are inaccurate. I think the but you're missing is that Jamie often fakes emotion as scum because he knows it tracks with his town persona, and I'm often quick to scumread him when I can't see where his feelings are coming from. Jamie dismissed me this game with the claim that I always scumread him.heartthrob24909 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:06 pm
I think I wrote a bit about it earlier but its me making some assumptions based on observations:
- Jamie tends to get incensed when he is scumread with what he believes to be inadequate support
- You and Jamie have played together enough where you might know this
If these don't seem true then let me know. Trying to thread things together as I can. BK3K also casted a Jamie vote because of the "loudness" but that's more NAI to me based on work games with BK3K where he has a tendency to find himself in opposition to some of the louder players in that crowd, too.
Does he tend to be more "convincing" one way or the other? Maybe you're not the person to ask.
#1255 Post by heartthrob24909 » Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:34 pm
It makes a move which I had considered deliberately contrived to look a lot less compelling. He's still in the jumble of people who I give scrutiny for not being involved in the EOD vote shuffle, for whatever the reason may be.bozotheclown wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:31 pmDoes this information change your read of ghug?heartthrob24909 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:24 pmYeah, and that's the missing piece for me - the extent to which he's aware of those emotional responses and uses it as a tactic.ghug wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:17 pm
I don't think either of those statements are inaccurate. I think the but you're missing is that Jamie often fakes emotion as scum because he knows it tracks with his town persona, and I'm often quick to scumread him when I can't see where his feelings are coming from. Jamie dismissed me this game with the claim that I always scumread him.
Does he tend to be more "convincing" one way or the other? Maybe you're not the person to ask.
#1256 Post by bozotheclown » Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:36 pm
Hamilton Brian(5)ghug wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 8:44 pmI'm actually feeling pretty good about my PoE right now, which means I've probably missed someone.
Scum:
Macca, Brian
PoE scum:
rd
People I've townread but have some doubts on given the size of PoE or recent actions:
bozo, Jamie, worcej, Chaqa
Town:
heart, sweet, Bishkek, Will
Darg and ghug:
darg, ghug
#1257 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:41 pm
You already have a thing named after you - the whole "I didn't read my Role PM" schtick.Chaqa wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:28 pmOh so we can just make basic concepts in the game our own thing's nowbozotheclown wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:26 pmApparently it depends on who you ask. I meant it to mean that the mafia have a general tendency to spread out their votes among different wagons.
Bussing is hereby the Chaqa method
#1258 Post by BunnyGo » Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:41 pm
#1259 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:47 pm
#1260 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:49 pm
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