MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

There is also the possibility that Jamie incorrectly suspected Bonatogether was mafia and not indicating a watch report.

I thought we knew Jamie knew Bona visited Spirit?

No, we do not know that for certain, that assumption is being made based on Jamie saying we should DK Bonatogether if Jamie was the NK.

Ohhhh, I see. Well we should wait to know if the person being roleblocked still is seen as “they visited”

In a few hours I’ll make a chart of all possible scenarios. Hopefully by then Brainbomb will have seen the query.

[Bonatogether]

Whats more likely? Jamie picked the right person to view (about 1/15 chance) or Bona visited Spirit and also got roleblocked (a 1/225 chance). The math doesn’t add up in Bona’s favor, and this is one of the reasons why I think its Bona

There is also the possibility that Jamie incorrectly suspected Bonatogether was mafia and not indicating a watch report.

I thought we knew Jamie knew Bona visited Spirit?

i didn't visit spirit

my claims are honest

[BunnyGo]

yeah i responded to the same situation in the same ways

You were scum last time and I was misreading you then...

yeah you always misread me

Your claim is that the situations D2 were the same...that I was misreading you again when I put you in my towncore.

You realize you're saying that you're scum...?

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

There is also the possibility that Jamie incorrectly suspected Bonatogether was mafia and not indicating a watch report.

I thought we knew Jamie knew Bona visited Spirit?

i didn't visit spirit

my claims are honest

So why do you think Jamie was so suspicious of you?

[BunnyGo]

##CALL GM would a roleblocked player be told they were roleblocked regardless of if they had an action that night?

[bozotheclown]

There is also the possibility that Jamie incorrectly suspected Bonatogether was mafia and not indicating a watch report.

It is because of this possibility that we should wait to DK Bonatogether, because if he is fake claiming, we will know it when we find out the identity of the real doctor.

So we don’t know if Jamie saw that Bona visited Spirit? Or we do, and you say this anyway…? Math aint mathin

No, we do not know that for certain, although it does seem like a good possibility. However, the mafia also have a ninja, who could perform the NK without being seen by the watcher, which is why I have some doubt that Jamie saw that Bonatogether visit SpiritoftheRadio.

[ghug]

If the Vig wanted input, they could announce who they planned on shooting and let everyone discuss, then do the same at night. If the mafia are well hidden, the mafia would welcome the Vig shooting early and often.

They could roleblock iff the target is scum, which is deeply suboptimal for town.

I assumed the Vig shot would be processed immediately at night and not be subject to a roleblock.

Oh, that'd be irregular but convenient. ##CALLGM which is it?

[damo666]

Whats more likely? Jamie picked the right person to view (about 1/15 chance) or Bona visited Spirit and also got roleblocked (a 1/225 chance). The math doesn’t add up in Bona’s favor, and this is one of the reasons why I think its Bona

Scum are unlikely to RB themselves but certainly it's unlikely.

[damo666]

In Bona ?Jamie speculation posts I obviously meant Spirit not Sweet.

Anyway. question to the class.

Probability of Jamie having watched Spirit not being saved by Bona because Bona was RB'd?

Watch Bunny cite Bayes.

Bayes is useless here. I think "rules" are more important as I'd guess doctor would just stay home if RBd.

ALSO DOCTOR WOULD CLAIM THEY WERE ROLEBLOCKED

Bingo. Bunny couldn't resist.

[BunnyGo]

In Bona ?Jamie speculation posts I obviously meant Spirit not Sweet.

Anyway. question to the class.

Probability of Jamie having watched Spirit not being saved by Bona because Bona was RB'd?

Watch Bunny cite Bayes.

Bayes is useless here. I think "rules" are more important as I'd guess doctor would just stay home if RBd.

ALSO DOCTOR WOULD CLAIM THEY WERE ROLEBLOCKED

Bingo. Bunny couldn't resist.

You said the magic words to get me to post...

math is stupid, never works right, and nobody understands it anyways

[Bonatogether]

You were scum last time and I was misreading you then...

yeah you always misread me

Your claim is that the situations D2 were the same...that I was misreading you again when I put you in my towncore.

You realize you're saying that you're scum...?

being knowingly facetious in pursuit of a 'gotcha' is simply stupid

i struggle to remember a time that you have read me correctly without direct knowledge of my alignment. therefore, when you correctly townread me prior to today, you were being in line with your past scum behavior.

[damo666]

Whats more likely? Jamie picked the right person to view (about 1/15 chance) or Bona visited Spirit and also got roleblocked (a 1/225 chance). The math doesn’t add up in Bona’s favor, and this is one of the reasons why I think its Bona

There is also the possibility that Jamie incorrectly suspected Bonatogether was mafia and not indicating a watch report.

I thought we knew Jamie knew Bona visited Spirit?

Scum slip?

[brainbomb]

##CALL GM would a roleblocked player be told they were roleblocked regardless of if they had an action that night?

Yes

[Bonatogether]

I thought we knew Jamie knew Bona visited Spirit?

i didn't visit spirit

my claims are honest

So why do you think Jamie was so suspicious of you?

does anything i have claimed imply omniscience?

[brainbomb]

They could roleblock iff the target is scum, which is deeply suboptimal for town.

I assumed the Vig shot would be processed immediately at night and not be subject to a roleblock.

Oh, that'd be irregular but convenient. ##CALLGM which is it?

vig shots at night are processed at end of night, and are subject to all standard rules and mechanics, it is not a live shot at night

[ghug]

Whats more likely? Jamie picked the right person to view (about 1/15 chance) or Bona visited Spirit and also got roleblocked (a 1/225 chance). The math doesn’t add up in Bona’s favor, and this is one of the reasons why I think its Bona

There is also the possibility that Jamie incorrectly suspected Bonatogether was mafia and not indicating a watch report.

A watcher ending the two nights they're alive with "If I die, kill whoever you think best." and "If I die, kill Bona." seems pretty clear to me.

[BunnyGo]

There is also the possibility that Jamie incorrectly suspected Bonatogether was mafia and not indicating a watch report.

I thought we knew Jamie knew Bona visited Spirit?

Scum slip?

Yeah...they've been bussing each other too.

[damo666]

Whats more likely? Jamie picked the right person to view (about 1/15 chance) or Bona visited Spirit and also got roleblocked (a 1/225 chance). The math doesn’t add up in Bona’s favor, and this is one of the reasons why I think its Bona

There is also the possibility that Jamie incorrectly suspected Bonatogether was mafia and not indicating a watch report.

As Jamie would know he would reveal as Watcher in the event of his death do you not think he would be more careful in wording his EON msg had he got no results?

[brainbomb]

tl;dr:

Flip Bonatogether tomorrow, and if he is scum, flip BunnyGo.

If Bonatogether dies and is not scum, flip Chaqa or JustWill.

Sif Jamie had watched anyone but Sweet and seen Bona visit he would have considered doc and not advocated a kill. So he must have watched Sweet and seen Bona visit but have the slight concern Bona was roleblocked doc.

So, Bona is either scum or Roleblocked doc who is lying about N1 visit. But why like?

Bona is probably scum who planned to claim doc and use the N1 claim to explain N3 survival.

However as Bona remains unCCd (real doc do NOT claim) there is no point killing him yet but either vote or vig since if he is doc he won't survive 2 nights.

Vig (Will) should kill their best guess and then we reassess after the reveal . The vote should not influence the kill ( or kill off top wagon).

Removing rdr from my scumpool.

##vote heart

##CALLGM does a roleblocked town PR still visit whoever they attempted to visit?

If someone is roleblocked their action is not able to happen. They would be roleblocked and no visit would happen

[brainbomb]

In Bona ?Jamie speculation posts I obviously meant Spirit not Sweet.

Anyway. question to the class.

Probability of Jamie having watched Spirit not being saved by Bona because Bona was RB'd?

Watch Bunny cite Bayes.

I would say significantly lower that Jamie not having seen Bonatogether visit at all, which makes it not relevant, because in both cases Bonatogether could be the real doctor.

##CALL GM if doctor is RBd do they still "visit" person just ineffectually? Or do they stay home?

No visit occurs. The roleblocked persons action/visit would fail