MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD

[BunnyGo]

In Bona ?Jamie speculation posts I obviously meant Spirit not Sweet.

Anyway. question to the class.

Probability of Jamie having watched Spirit not being saved by Bona because Bona was RB'd?

Watch Bunny cite Bayes.

I would say significantly lower that Jamie not having seen Bonatogether visit at all, which makes it not relevant, because in both cases Bonatogether could be the real doctor.

##CALL GM if doctor is RBd do they still "visit" person just ineffectually? Or do they stay home?

[BunnyGo]

In Bona ?Jamie speculation posts I obviously meant Spirit not Sweet.

Anyway. question to the class.

Probability of Jamie having watched Spirit not being saved by Bona because Bona was RB'd?

Watch Bunny cite Bayes.

Bayes is useless here. I think "rules" are more important as I'd guess doctor would just stay home if RBd.

ALSO DOCTOR WOULD CLAIM THEY WERE ROLEBLOCKED

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Whats more likely? Jamie picked the right person to view (about 1/15 chance) or Bona visited Spirit and also got roleblocked (a 1/225 chance). The math doesn’t add up in Bona’s favor, and this is one of the reasons why I think its Bona

[BunnyGo]

Whats more likely? Jamie picked the right person to view (about 1/15 chance) or Bona visited Spirit and also got roleblocked (a 1/225 chance). The math doesn’t add up in Bona’s favor, and this is one of the reasons why I think its Bona

no...no...

no math...

not needed...

don't be corrupted by damo

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Whats more likely? Jamie picked the right person to view (about 1/15 chance) or Bona visited Spirit and also got roleblocked (a 1/225 chance). The math doesn’t add up in Bona’s favor, and this is one of the reasons why I think its Bona

no...no...

no math...

not needed...

don't be corrupted by damo

But it is true. Damo has not participated enough so I must step in.

[bozotheclown]

Whats more likely? Jamie picked the right person to view (about 1/15 chance) or Bona visited Spirit and also got roleblocked (a 1/225 chance). The math doesn’t add up in Bona’s favor, and this is one of the reasons why I think its Bona

There is also the possibility that Jamie incorrectly suspected Bonatogether was mafia and not indicating a watch report.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Whats more likely? Jamie picked the right person to view (about 1/15 chance) or Bona visited Spirit and also got roleblocked (a 1/225 chance). The math doesn’t add up in Bona’s favor, and this is one of the reasons why I think its Bona

There is also the possibility that Jamie incorrectly suspected Bonatogether was mafia and not indicating a watch report.

I thought we knew Jamie knew Bona visited Spirit?

[ghug]

tl;dr:

Flip Bonatogether tomorrow, and if he is scum, flip BunnyGo.

If Bonatogether dies and is not scum, flip Chaqa or JustWill.

Sif Jamie had watched anyone but Sweet and seen Bona visit he would have considered doc and not advocated a kill. So he must have watched Sweet and seen Bona visit but have the slight concern Bona was roleblocked doc.

So, Bona is either scum or Roleblocked doc who is lying about N1 visit. But why like?

Bona is probably scum who planned to claim doc and use the N1 claim to explain N3 survival.

However as Bona remains unCCd (real doc do NOT claim) there is no point killing him yet but either vote or vig since if he is doc he won't survive 2 nights.

Vig (Will) should kill their best guess and then we reassess after the reveal . The vote should not influence the kill ( or kill off top wagon).

Removing rdr from my scumpool.

##vote heart

##CALLGM does a roleblocked town PR still visit whoever they attempted to visit?

[ghug]

Also, if doc is RB'd does the doc "go" anywhere?

##CALL GM if doctor is RB'd can they be seen going anywhere?

Whoops, Bunny got there first.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

tl;dr:

Flip Bonatogether tomorrow, and if he is scum, flip BunnyGo.

If Bonatogether dies and is not scum, flip Chaqa or JustWill.

Sif Jamie had watched anyone but Sweet and seen Bona visit he would have considered doc and not advocated a kill. So he must have watched Sweet and seen Bona visit but have the slight concern Bona was roleblocked doc.

So, Bona is either scum or Roleblocked doc who is lying about N1 visit. But why like?

Bona is probably scum who planned to claim doc and use the N1 claim to explain N3 survival.

However as Bona remains unCCd (real doc do NOT claim) there is no point killing him yet but either vote or vig since if he is doc he won't survive 2 nights.

Vig (Will) should kill their best guess and then we reassess after the reveal . The vote should not influence the kill ( or kill off top wagon).

Removing rdr from my scumpool.

##vote heart

##CALLGM does a roleblocked town PR still visit whoever they attempted to visit?

So we just assuming I’m Vig now. Welp I’m going to die.

[ghug]

OK...if bona is scum, then that means chaqa's "why not both" post was him open chaqa-ing on page 8.

##vote chaqa

Can you expand on this thought process?

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

OK...if bona is scum, then that means chaqa's "why not both" post was him open chaqa-ing on page 8.

##vote chaqa

Can you expand on this thought process?

Can you expand on this thought process?

[bozotheclown]

Whats more likely? Jamie picked the right person to view (about 1/15 chance) or Bona visited Spirit and also got roleblocked (a 1/225 chance). The math doesn’t add up in Bona’s favor, and this is one of the reasons why I think its Bona

There is also the possibility that Jamie incorrectly suspected Bonatogether was mafia and not indicating a watch report.

It is because of this possibility that we should wait to DK Bonatogether, because if he is fake claiming, we will know it when we find out the identity of the real doctor.

[ghug]

Did I math wrong?

9-3 now
vig shot
8-3
town vote
7-3
scum kill
6-3
vig shot
5-3
town vote
4-3
scum kill
3-3

oh...I did maths wrong

Hmm...doc save either of those nights helps us again.

But I agree with you...vig should be shooting either way. We need more chances. I wish they'd shot at EOD yesterday and cleared up VCA for us a bit.

I thought BunnyGo might be vig asking us for permission to use his shot until this post.

Same here lmao

Y'all, speculating on who isn't PR is also bad.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Whats more likely? Jamie picked the right person to view (about 1/15 chance) or Bona visited Spirit and also got roleblocked (a 1/225 chance). The math doesn’t add up in Bona’s favor, and this is one of the reasons why I think its Bona

There is also the possibility that Jamie incorrectly suspected Bonatogether was mafia and not indicating a watch report.

It is because of this possibility that we should wait to DK Bonatogether, because if he is fake claiming, we will know it when we find out the identity of the real doctor.

So we don’t know if Jamie saw that Bona visited Spirit? Or we do, and you say this anyway…? Math aint mathin

[ghug]

Just, heart, Macca? You all show as online.

Just has been posting here.

C'mon people! Play with me! I'm feeling stoked we got something going, and we got some mechs to decide as a group, and I think it's important you three weigh in!

Without having read much further than this post I agree that vig should do something. I'd forgotten that town even had power roles until Jamie was revealed as one. I think town has enough padding right now to use vig at least once before its too late. Dont want vig to be another NK like Jamie was.

The crumbing has been a really interesting conversation. I didn't realize that that was a thing people did. I agree it looks like he is pointing fingers at Bona but I sped through the Bona = doctor discussion to try and catch up so I'll need to reread bc that confused me a lot.

Bunny, would heart really be unaware of crumbing?

[bozotheclown]

Whats more likely? Jamie picked the right person to view (about 1/15 chance) or Bona visited Spirit and also got roleblocked (a 1/225 chance). The math doesn’t add up in Bona’s favor, and this is one of the reasons why I think its Bona

There is also the possibility that Jamie incorrectly suspected Bonatogether was mafia and not indicating a watch report.

I thought we knew Jamie knew Bona visited Spirit?

No, we do not know that for certain, that assumption is being made based on Jamie saying we should DK Bonatogether if Jamie was the NK.

[Bonatogether]

Yeah...but you said it identically. You told the same lie twice...

yeah i responded to the same situation in the same ways

You were scum last time and I was misreading you then...

yeah you always misread me

[ghug]

Shouldn’t*

Do you agree that we should ask the vig (without them claiming) to shoot whoever is leading with exactly 24 hours to go in the day? Do you think the vig should do this?

What's the draw of something like this vs just letting the vig do whatever they want? Without having played with the vig before I assumed part of its allure as a role is to give some agency to the individual. I think in general I don't love making this plan and then actually sticking to it. Vig's unpredictability feels like its advantage

Individuals are notoriously stupid.

[BunnyGo]

Just, heart, Macca? You all show as online.

Just has been posting here.

C'mon people! Play with me! I'm feeling stoked we got something going, and we got some mechs to decide as a group, and I think it's important you three weigh in!

Without having read much further than this post I agree that vig should do something. I'd forgotten that town even had power roles until Jamie was revealed as one. I think town has enough padding right now to use vig at least once before its too late. Dont want vig to be another NK like Jamie was.

The crumbing has been a really interesting conversation. I didn't realize that that was a thing people did. I agree it looks like he is pointing fingers at Bona but I sped through the Bona = doctor discussion to try and catch up so I'll need to reread bc that confused me a lot.

Bunny, would heart really be unaware of crumbing?

Yeah...

Our first game at work had only 1 wagon a day with the mentality of "I don't want to stand out...so I'll just join everyone else!"

Second game I played and shook things up D1.

So they started playing MUCH better after that. But our PR/mech levels are still very very low.

He's just starting (as GM) now our first game with more mech play. We'll see what happens...