MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD

[ghug]

Heart never posted...

Macca gone, but at least said "hi".

@ghug, I'm thinking you're right we won't get the vig to do it.

Vig can still shoot someone widely suspected midway through the day.

I just want folks to stake out positions on Bona quickly so this day doesn't drag.

[ghug]

Oh great Bozo!

Please explain what the fuck just happened with Bona. Too many people are saying things are obvious, but I just saw 3 pages of WORDS, and I'm confused.

Do we have to neck him now?

Maybe you could give your own opinion while we're waiting.

[worcej]

@Just, what do you think of my vig idea? and the maths behind it? You cool with it?

@worcej and others feel free to weigh in too.

With the vig killing the highest wagon at the 24hr mark?

I'm not opposed to it, but I'd rather have the vig go with their own judgement - the downside of the 24 hour mark is scum will be able to influence it too.

[bozotheclown]

Unless I am missing something, the obvious play for the mafia would be to use the ninja for the NK and not use the roleblocker until the watcher is out of the game.

However, considering Bonatogether claimed doctor so quickly, it is possible that Bonatogether is the roleblocker and the mafia decided the chance that SpiritoftheRadio was the doctor was higher than the chance SpiritoftheRadio would be watched, and had Bonatogether NK and RB SpiritoftheRadio, then took Jamie's post as a scan report, regardless of whether is really was.

The only way Jamie would think Bonatogether was mafia would be if he watched SpiritoftheRadio and saw Bonatogether visit. The only doubt would be the remote chance that the ninja performed the NK and Bonatogether was the roleblocked doctor. If Jamie saw Bonatogether visit someone else that Jamie considered a likely NK, Jamie would know Bonatogether was likely the doctor, with a much smaller chance of him being the roleblocker.

[bozotheclown]

@Bozopedia: has Jamie ever crumbed or does he often crumb?

I feel like you all are over-reading that post

Jamie typically crumbs when he is a PR, but I think he is usually more direct when he has an informative scan. I am not convinced that Jamie did not just suspect Bonatogether was mafia without any N1 scan.

[bozotheclown]

Vig could shoot Bona.

Ok… some mech talk.

I dunno what the vig is planning, but let’s give them some advice:

It’s currently 9-3. That means we have 3 miskills left.

If vig hits one of each, that doesn’t change things.

If they hit 2 scum, we’re in much better place.

But it’s the remaining case that’s interesting:

If they shoot today and tomorrow, and hit town twice and we vote town twice, we don’t lose! It’s like we have 4 miskills by squeezing it into 2 days!

One option is for them to just shoot. But they haven’t yet, so maybe they’re waiting for something.

One option is for them to give it back to town and just shorten each day to 24 hours. Shoot the leading wagon at the halfway point tomorrow.

Thoughts?

Oh, and to be clear, vig need not and should not claim.

The Vig shooting their top scum read is a 100% town kill, but shooting the vote leader could be significantly mafia directed.

[ghug]

@Bozopedia: has Jamie ever crumbed or does he often crumb?

I feel like you all are over-reading that post

Jamie typically crumbs when he is a PR, but I think he is usually more direct when he has an informative scan. I am not convinced that Jamie did not just suspect Bonatogether was mafia without any N1 scan.

What? He used similar language to say not to kill anybody if he died night one, and bozo has claimed a watchable role.

[ghug]

Vig could shoot Bona.

Ok… some mech talk.

I dunno what the vig is planning, but let’s give them some advice:

It’s currently 9-3. That means we have 3 miskills left.

If vig hits one of each, that doesn’t change things.

If they hit 2 scum, we’re in much better place.

But it’s the remaining case that’s interesting:

If they shoot today and tomorrow, and hit town twice and we vote town twice, we don’t lose! It’s like we have 4 miskills by squeezing it into 2 days!

One option is for them to just shoot. But they haven’t yet, so maybe they’re waiting for something.

One option is for them to give it back to town and just shorten each day to 24 hours. Shoot the leading wagon at the halfway point tomorrow.

Thoughts?

Oh, and to be clear, vig need not and should not claim.

The Vig shooting their top scum read is a 100% town kill, but shooting the vote leader could be significantly mafia directed.

The vig can always decide not to shoot a townread. More votes make it easy to solve, but misguided townies are common.

[bozotheclown]

@Just, what do you think of my vig idea? and the maths behind it? You cool with it?

@worcej and others feel free to weigh in too.

Hold up, with twelve alive, your plan gets us to 6 after two day/night cycles, which is a loss if we don't hit anyone, whereas we have three days with no shots. Four town kills is still better than three, so we should be killing.

If we use one vig shot, worst case is 4v3 at that same point with three town kills, which gets us to 3v3 if we miskill, and then 2v2, which is still a loss if we shoot correctly, so there's no point in holding, but it is worth noting we can lose in two days.

Did I math wrong?

9-3 now
vig shot
8-3
town vote
7-3
scum kill
6-3
vig shot
5-3
town vote
4-3
scum kill
3-3

oh...I did maths wrong

Hmm...doc save either of those nights helps us again.

But I agree with you...vig should be shooting either way. We need more chances. I wish they'd shot at EOD yesterday and cleared up VCA for us a bit.

I believe the Vig could shoot D3 then again N3.

[ghug]

Hold up, with twelve alive, your plan gets us to 6 after two day/night cycles, which is a loss if we don't hit anyone, whereas we have three days with no shots. Four town kills is still better than three, so we should be killing.

If we use one vig shot, worst case is 4v3 at that same point with three town kills, which gets us to 3v3 if we miskill, and then 2v2, which is still a loss if we shoot correctly, so there's no point in holding, but it is worth noting we can lose in two days.

Did I math wrong?

9-3 now
vig shot
8-3
town vote
7-3
scum kill
6-3
vig shot
5-3
town vote
4-3
scum kill
3-3

oh...I did maths wrong

Hmm...doc save either of those nights helps us again.

But I agree with you...vig should be shooting either way. We need more chances. I wish they'd shot at EOD yesterday and cleared up VCA for us a bit.

I believe the Vig could shoot D3 then again N3.

Shooting at night is only better than the following day if you think there's a chance you die.

[bozotheclown]

@Bozopedia: has Jamie ever crumbed or does he often crumb?

I feel like you all are over-reading that post

Jamie typically crumbs when he is a PR, but I think he is usually more direct when he has an informative scan. I am not convinced that Jamie did not just suspect Bonatogether was mafia without any N1 scan.

What? He used similar language to say not to kill anybody if he died night one, and bozo has claimed a watchable role.

I assume you mean Bonatogether has claimed a watchable role, but if he is the doctor, that is irrelevant, because there is almost no chance Jamie watched Bonatogether visit someone as the doctor and thought he could be mafia. Either Bonatogether is fake claiming, or Jamie was not indicating a report on Bonatogether, unless something very unlikely happened.

[bozotheclown]

Did I math wrong?

9-3 now
vig shot
8-3
town vote
7-3
scum kill
6-3
vig shot
5-3
town vote
4-3
scum kill
3-3

oh...I did maths wrong

Hmm...doc save either of those nights helps us again.

But I agree with you...vig should be shooting either way. We need more chances. I wish they'd shot at EOD yesterday and cleared up VCA for us a bit.

I believe the Vig could shoot D3 then again N3.

Shooting at night is only better than the following day if you think there's a chance you die.

If the Vig does not think they will be NKed, they can wait longer before using their shots. However, since the Vig can shoot during the day then again that night, they could go public if they wanted and get both of their shots in.

[ghug]

Jamie typically crumbs when he is a PR, but I think he is usually more direct when he has an informative scan. I am not convinced that Jamie did not just suspect Bonatogether was mafia without any N1 scan.

What? He used similar language to say not to kill anybody if he died night one, and bozo has claimed a watchable role.

I assume you mean Bonatogether has claimed a watchable role, but if he is the doctor, that is irrelevant, because there is almost no chance Jamie watched Bonatogether visit someone as the doctor and thought he could be mafia. Either Bonatogether is fake claiming, or Jamie was not indicating a report on Bonatogether, unless something very unlikely happened.

Yes, forgive the autocorrect. Bona claiming, either because he's the doctor or scum, has to drastically increase the odds.of Jamie having watched him over the prior.

[ghug]

I believe the Vig could shoot D3 then again N3.

Shooting at night is only better than the following day if you think there's a chance you die.

If the Vig does not think they will be NKed, they can wait longer before using their shots. However, since the Vig can shoot during the day then again that night, they could go public if they wanted and get both of their shots in.

How does going public help?

They should shoot today and then either during the night or during the next day.

[bozotheclown]

What? He used similar language to say not to kill anybody if he died night one, and bozo has claimed a watchable role.

I assume you mean Bonatogether has claimed a watchable role, but if he is the doctor, that is irrelevant, because there is almost no chance Jamie watched Bonatogether visit someone as the doctor and thought he could be mafia. Either Bonatogether is fake claiming, or Jamie was not indicating a report on Bonatogether, unless something very unlikely happened.

Yes, forgive the autocorrect. Bona claiming, either because he's the doctor or scum, has to drastically increase the odds.of Jamie having watched him over the prior.

I agree the possibility that Bonatogether could be fake claiming increases the chances Jamie watched him, but not the possibility that Bonatogether is the doctor. How likely do you think it is that the mafia did not use the ninja to perform the NK?

[bozotheclown]

Shooting at night is only better than the following day if you think there's a chance you die.

If the Vig does not think they will be NKed, they can wait longer before using their shots. However, since the Vig can shoot during the day then again that night, they could go public if they wanted and get both of their shots in.

How does going public help?

They should shoot today and then either during the night or during the next day.

If the Vig wanted input, they could announce who they planned on shooting and let everyone discuss, then do the same at night. If the mafia are well hidden, the mafia would welcome the Vig shooting early and often.

[ghug]

I assume you mean Bonatogether has claimed a watchable role, but if he is the doctor, that is irrelevant, because there is almost no chance Jamie watched Bonatogether visit someone as the doctor and thought he could be mafia. Either Bonatogether is fake claiming, or Jamie was not indicating a report on Bonatogether, unless something very unlikely happened.

Yes, forgive the autocorrect. Bona claiming, either because he's the doctor or scum, has to drastically increase the odds.of Jamie having watched him over the prior.

I agree the possibility that Bonatogether could be fake claiming increases the chances Jamie watched him, but not the possibility that Bonatogether is the doctor. How likely do you think it is that the mafia did not use the ninja to perform the NK?

I think it increases both, but the doctor remains unlikely, hence the vote. I think the Mafia not using the ninja is unlikely, unless they can have the roleblocker do the kill, but that's ultimately irrelevant to what we can see.

I'm pretty much fully with your explanation post; I'd err on the.side of not roleblocking, but we're either here because of a roleblock or a Jamie miscommunication, and Bona scum makes way more sense to me in that world.

[ghug]

If the Vig does not think they will be NKed, they can wait longer before using their shots. However, since the Vig can shoot during the day then again that night, they could go public if they wanted and get both of their shots in.

How does going public help?

They should shoot today and then either during the night or during the next day.

If the Vig wanted input, they could announce who they planned on shooting and let everyone discuss, then do the same at night. If the mafia are well hidden, the mafia would welcome the Vig shooting early and often.

They could roleblock iff the target is scum, which is deeply suboptimal for town.

[Temasek22]

Dammit I overslept by half an hour and missed EoD, RIP Ham.

What time zone are you in?

UTC+8

[Temasek22]

Inclined to believe Bona for now unless we get a CC since he was one of my stronger town reads earlier on. But am willing to change my vote to him if circumstances change

Tagging along to ##Vote Just