MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD

[ghug]

I just don’t know why the hell Bona revealed so early? A very weird move, and I have some thoughts on it. My red flags keep going off for multiple reasons: Did he not think to wait until he actually became a potential target in the later stages of the game? Outwardly, this just feels like an extremely intentionally sub-optimal play. Currently, I think Bona errantly believed he was certainly going to die, and as mafia, decided to pull a Hail Mary and see what happens

this is a scummy post

##vote just

Can you expand on this thought process?

[ghug]

Hi Macca.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

I just don’t know why the hell Bona revealed so early? A very weird move, and I have some thoughts on it. My red flags keep going off for multiple reasons: Did he not think to wait until he actually became a potential target in the later stages of the game? Outwardly, this just feels like an extremely intentionally sub-optimal play. Currently, I think Bona errantly believed he was certainly going to die, and as mafia, decided to pull a Hail Mary and see what happens

I will abstain from voting because when someone claims a power role, things get interesting later down the line.

Can you expand on this thought process?

I can’t really. I have no clue what might go on later in the day, so I will hold until I see something that might sway my notion that Bona is lying

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Hi Macca.

Can you expand on this thought process?

[BunnyGo]

OK, I dug up every time bona "claimed" a role. He often joke claims something early in the game.

But here are the "claims" I found (in reverse chronological order):

1) M79 bona "hardclaim tracker"

2) In M70 there was a complex sequence where bozo claimed doc, worcej CCd and the next night no deaths and bozo claimed he saved me and worcej claimed he saved bona
bona wrote "claim attacked but saved"

3) In M65 bona had talked a lot of mechs for the deputy. Then said "If we think the deputy scanned her, then it'd be best to vote for her" and on the next page wrote:

"I'm the deputy

Fuck you guys

I'm not coming back for hours"

Couldn't find any fake claims or other claims of a specific role or action.

[BunnyGo]

@Just, what do you think of my vig idea? and the maths behind it? You cool with it?

@worcej and others feel free to weigh in too.

[ghug]

Hi Macca.

Can you expand on this thought process?

I like saying hi to people when they appear as online.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

@Just, what do you think of my vig idea? and the maths behind it? You cool with it?

@worcej and others feel free to weigh in too.

I’m a bit hesitant to kill. Call it newb town, but I am very adverse to killing without absolute necessity. I’d rather not Vig kill without reason to.

[ghug]

@Just, what do you think of my vig idea? and the maths behind it? You cool with it?

@worcej and others feel free to weigh in too.

Hold up, with twelve alive, your plan gets us to 6 after two day/night cycles, which is a loss if we don't hit anyone, whereas we have three days with no shots. Four town kills is still better than three, so we should be killing.

If we use one vig shot, worst case is 4v3 at that same point with three town kills, which gets us to 3v3 if we miskill, and then 2v2, which is still a loss if we shoot correctly, so there's no point in holding, but it is worth noting we can lose in two days.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Hi Macca.

Can you expand on this thought process?

I like saying hi to people when they appear as online.

I was joking

[BunnyGo]

@Just, what do you think of my vig idea? and the maths behind it? You cool with it?

@worcej and others feel free to weigh in too.

I’m a bit hesitant to kill. Call it newb town, but I am very adverse to killing without absolute necessity. I’d rather not Vig kill without reason to.

That's been a bit clear.

But what do you think of the maths?

[ghug]

Can you expand on this thought process?

I like saying hi to people when they appear as online.

I was joking

I figured, but I thought I'd be safe.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

@Just, what do you think of my vig idea? and the maths behind it? You cool with it?

@worcej and others feel free to weigh in too.

I’m a bit hesitant to kill. Call it newb town, but I am very adverse to killing without absolute necessity. I’d rather not Vig kill without reason to.

That's been a bit clear.

But what do you think of the maths?

Depends if we hit a mafia. If we don’t, we probably should try again

[BunnyGo]

@Just, what do you think of my vig idea? and the maths behind it? You cool with it?

@worcej and others feel free to weigh in too.

Hold up, with twelve alive, your plan gets us to 6 after two day/night cycles, which is a loss if we don't hit anyone, whereas we have three days with no shots. Four town kills is still better than three, so we should be killing.

If we use one vig shot, worst case is 4v3 at that same point with three town kills, which gets us to 3v3 if we miskill, and then 2v2, which is still a loss if we shoot correctly, so there's no point in holding, but it is worth noting we can lose in two days.

Did I math wrong?

9-3 now
vig shot
8-3
town vote
7-3
scum kill
6-3
vig shot
5-3
town vote
4-3
scum kill
3-3

oh...I did maths wrong

Hmm...doc save either of those nights helps us again.

But I agree with you...vig should be shooting either way. We need more chances. I wish they'd shot at EOD yesterday and cleared up VCA for us a bit.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

I’m a bit hesitant to kill. Call it newb town, but I am very adverse to killing without absolute necessity. I’d rather not Vig kill without reason to.

That's been a bit clear.

But what do you think of the maths?

Depends if we hit a mafia. If we don’t, we probably should try again

Shouldn’t*

[BunnyGo]

That's been a bit clear.

But what do you think of the maths?

Depends if we hit a mafia. If we don’t, we probably should try again

Shouldn’t*

Do you agree that we should ask the vig (without them claiming) to shoot whoever is leading with exactly 24 hours to go in the day? Do you think the vig should do this?

[BunnyGo]

heart was here and disappeared it seems...

Come back heart! There's drama!

[BunnyGo]

Hi Macca!

Chime in too! I want to hear your thoughts on all the spicy developments!

[BunnyGo]

Just, heart, Macca? You all show as online.

Just has been posting here.

C'mon people! Play with me! I'm feeling stoked we got something going, and we got some mechs to decide as a group, and I think it's important you three weigh in!

[Bonatogether]

I just don’t know why the hell Bona revealed so early? A very weird move, and I have some thoughts on it. My red flags keep going off for multiple reasons: Did he not think to wait until he actually became a potential target in the later stages of the game? Outwardly, this just feels like an extremely intentionally sub-optimal play. Currently, I think Bona errantly believed he was certainly going to die, and as mafia, decided to pull a Hail Mary and see what happens

this is a scummy post

##vote just

This is not a scummy post. This is a genuine question I have for your motivation to reveal in such a way.

whatever you want dude