MAFIA 83: HALLOWE'EN IN THE TOYSHOP - GAME THREAD

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Night 5. That odd ass E is what got me looking.

yeah, it was getting hard finding good starting words that flow into the overall structure.

That raises your probability of being town by quite an instance. I'm not fully convinced since thinking about it, it still could fit with the rb, but I guess it's just Will then.

Why? Tell me! I have a vote too..!

There isn’t any posts from Kak night 5 with a weird capitalized E? There’s gotta be a hidden message or something…

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

I’m not good at subliminal messages… So if not noticing is something of a mafia tell, just know I am just dumb and not the mafia

[DemonRHK]

Some of those choices make no goddamn sense tho

[DemonRHK]

It’s kak’s play, I ain’t gonna drop it without his blessing

[Hamilton Brian]

It’s kak’s play, I ain’t gonna drop it without his blessing

Fair enough; I didn't see anything that jumped out at me as strange.

[Kakarroto]

Well, I thought about keeping shut just in case we have a no kill or misvote, but thinking about it, since I was rb'ed yesternight, it would take a miracle to get a use out of it.

I also know that makes it virtually impossible to fully townclear me, but I guess I should've just guessed better.

I've hid my crumbs in my ending posts, the trick is to read the first letter of each paragraph, but I tried to make it more hidden so people don't see it instantly, so I wrote the message each time from below to the top.

I didn't crumb on night one because I didn't think it was necessary, but during night two I thought it would be better if I do start to crumb.

For night one, I chose to protect brain since he claimed the detective kit.

Night two I decided to protect Vecna because of the repairing of the gun.

Alright, where to begin ...

Naturally at the message I received. I'm not telling here who send it to me right now, but I think there is a hint in the message, but I guess some key is needed to get the code.

Clearly, I'm not a professional codecracker, but I have some ideas what it could mean. I'll however not share it at this point.

Eventually, I think, this will lead to a town clear, so big kudos for coming up with this great idea with the code.

VVhich brings me to another topic; I know I haven't done much yet, but I had much to do at work and with the flip of sweet the confidence in my reads didn't grow. So I wanted to get a little reset, also this night into night thing isn't the best for engagement.

This is why I was so larifari. With the holiday I should fare better, though to be honest, I feel a bit sleepy since the last days, but I try my best.

Considering how it looks like with our cleared people, I think we are on the right course. I hope by not directly revealing and only putting the message with code (by the way, I checked with jamie, I am allowed to copy&paste that part of the message, before anyone cries about it) we can drag it out longer so we have a town clear in the end stage.

Everytime I think about it, we should have enough items and actions to clear people, so if we don't make a mistake, we're pretty set to win this game.

This brings me back to the darg thing, where he went so defensive after I've voted him. I really, really didn't like that reaction of his.

Originally I was just testing some waters, since everyone seemed to overlook darg. I didn't notice that brain had voted him before, I have to say, I first thought only I voted him. Kinda telling that he didn't react to brain but my vote. He was probably sure that brain would go away from him after a while.

RHK is another topic which linked with darg. He was very protective of darg, like a watch dog I might say. Maybe I'm reading too much into that, but it is suspicious in my eyes.

Probably at least one of both is likely mafia; I think the brain connection of darg is pretty strong, so I'd give the edge to darg over RHK. He might be just a town that misread mafia afterall.

Likely, however, is that both are mafia. So when darg flips mafia and the game doesn't end, go to RHK next. If he claims certain items, be very, very wary of it though. If he can't back it up, we shouldn't hesitate to go for him.

Lastly, if I'm wrong (as I've proven I'm more than capable of, just see to sweet and the 'townslip' I saw) and both are actually town, than you two should have a look again and refocus, because I'm pretty sure that your focus is totally wrong in this game right now.

I think a little refocussing can help us all, since that double night was pretty draining. I hope we wont come to a similar standstill again.

Night three I protected Brian because I thought mafia might avoid the outed detective.

Next time I should start to write this sooner, I nearly run out of time.

Also I have to admit, since it was a night ingame, I did much less as I planned, so sorry about that.

I think though, most of my thoughts are better left out so I can't spill the beans about the greeting card. There is however something I can discuss and share.

RHK didn't post for a while now, but with the flip of darg that connection clearly disappeared. There is still a chance he could be mafia, maybe he tried to gain town points for defending darg, but there is also the chance he just did that as town and defended a town read.

Because of that, I'm not too sure who to vote for. Like, if I avoid a certain person or if my voting behaviour is too telling, I might give away who did send me the card.

That is why I want to tell in advance that I might just vote the card sender; of course I'll not end on that wagon, but to avoid any mafia interpreting things from my vote behaviour and at the same time not to scare the sender, I'll just inform you all about that.

Controversial you might say, but I hope you will understand that I have to do that to guarantee a townclear on a later stage. Well, unless I'm the target tonight, then it's all for mood anyway, but I don't think I'm the priority for mafia right now.

Even when I say that, the chance for that isn't nil, so I hope we might just have a miracle play in our favour.

Theoretically, there are enough ways for us to nullify the mafia visit at night, so I hope that we get sooner rather than later lucky.

On that note we are currently ten players who are left, with 2 openly known and 1 hidden clear (or quasi clear). If we can keep that or maybe even advance this number, we should win this game.

Relatively speaking though, we shouldn't just force something, since if we suddenly have too many targets for mafia, they can't be protected.

Probably for the best if we wait with the reveal of those unaccounted items, just to be safe.

Like, if we reveal too soon, mafia could probably just pick out any clears we generate with that and we are in a worse position afterward.

Luckily we are in a position to not fall for such a trap, I think, and if anything happens out of the ordinary, we can just adapt and follow the hidden townclear, aka greeting card sender.

I'm tired though so after I post this at EoN and maybe watch the flip (if I not just fall asleep before adjucation) I'll go to bed, so don't expect me to post.

Night four I thought mafia would go again for Macca, but they went instead for damo. I was contemplating protecting RD instead, but my crumbs might've just unnecessarily outed him and Macca sounded so much more logical.

Another night ends and I hope tomorrow will be a better day.

Currently I can't say too much or else the whole shabang would be for naught.

Clearly I still think that RHK has a great potential for being mafia. The timing doesn't clear him and he has done nothing but trying to save his sorry hide.

As for others, I'm happy to share my thoughts if the card sender reveals. I think I have a better grasp of the game than at the start, but who knows.

My reads usually get better and better until I get the solution before the end. I mean, ok, sure, it gets easier to guess with fewer options, but normally it's information that makes my read get good. But there were a few games in a row when I solved it, I just lost because others didn't listen to me.

This far into the game, I should have a pretty good understanding of the game, I think I could still be prone to mistakes though, so that's that.

Certainly it's easier with the information I have about the card sender. It doesn't give me a full solution of the situation though.

Eventually however, I think we will be in a position where we win.

That however will need the investment of everyone. I know time can be an issue for some (and it seems the vote wouldn't have changed anyway) but voting worcej out was suboptimal, to say the least.

Of course I know that the volume goes down over time, but compared to day one, it's kinda frightening that there are so few posts.

Recently, I feel, it got better, but I hope we can increase our investment for the game in an adequate manner. We all need to give it a bit of a shove and I'm sure together we can make it happen.

Perhaps I'm a bit hypocritic by saying all that, but I hope you believe me that I'm just trying to do my best. If the card sender chooses to reveal, I'm very happy to share my thoughts about the game.

Lastly, I want to say, that I want to live, but if push comes to shove, I'll shield a guaranteed town clear with my body.

Like don't get me wrong, I'd be happy it it doesn't come to that. I think I know who is mafia, though we still could only have one left or I might be just wrong so I'm not a hundred percent on that. But it should be fine.

I just hope you will understand when the time comes.

Night five (with the 'crooked E') I decided to protect RD, since with the nk the night before, mafia seemed to prioritize more involved cleared town, but I guessed wrong again.

Daybreak is near, hope it will bring a good one.

Right on the closing hour of all saints day and all I wish for is a little luck.

That's however not how it works since everyone is their own luck's smith (Jeder is seines Glückes Schmied), so all I can do is get better.

Clearly I have to improve myself to get better to get lucky, but that's easier said than done. At least there is quite the room for it.

Eysterday I thought I had read something evil, but after the flip I think it was just a new player thing, so I think that's neglectable.

Technically it could still be coming from a mafia, but why whould that duo let RD alive, and I can't find a satisfying answer, so maybe I'm only seeing shadows there.

Originally I strongly sympathized with ND after he shot Vecna, I had made a mistake too when I thought sweet townslipped. Though maybe it wasn't an accident, but then again ND wasn't this invested as mafia last agme.

RD suggested that we should claim our items. I think it depends, but I think I tend towards waiting a bit. Then again, revealing might avoid any misvotes.

Pretty sure though we have the win if we don't mess up, after spirit flipped.

Lets focus on what we can do tomorrow, maybe that's all we need and the answer was always right behind a grenade.

Luck or not, we shall see. I'll cross my fingers.

I have an early doctors appointment though so don't expect me to stay on for long. (Amazingly someone is working on all souls day.)

And finally on day six, I had the correct target to protect, but then the rb hit me.

Nocturne, begone! Dawn has been drawn!

I originally said that it has to be RHK, but I'm not as sure anymore. Sure, there isn't much speaking for RHK, but sometimes the easy answer isn't the correct one.

After the flip of ND I agitaded RHK, so in the small chance I'm the target, it's probably just RHK.

Given that hte most sensible target is RD, we can't clear RHK if I'm alive, just if it happens, it should just be him and you should vote him.

As i contemplated about RHK being town, I struggle to see who else is mafia then. Brian who shot his partner sweet? That just doesn't fit with Brians character and from the situation he started.

Directly coming from a mafia loss where he bussed his partner too much on day one and got him voted out. Given he had the game before where he won as mafia (with bona and me) so the play with ultra bussing day one was maybe not as impressing as i think, but shooting a mafiamate is just not a thing I see Brian doing there.

Regarding Will, I have to say there were a few strange things that plopped up while I read the game again. With the fact that RD didn't die I've put them as things a new player might do and just ignored them, but maybe I shouldn't have.

This is something I should check again tomorrow, so we shouldn't just rush a conclusion tomorrow. If Will is mafia though, why did they leave RD alive?

Clearly, RD just can't be mafia, so I hope he can make a difference for us.

Even with RD though we can't just sit back, I urge you to do the same and have read of the game again. Maybe you notice something that I didn't.

The best thing we can do, I think, is if we vote normally who we think is mafia, but not ending it.

Of course, mafia would want to do any rash moves and get a misvote in the heat of the day. I implore you to keep a cool head and not fall for any flashy tricks but to be logical.

Right when you think you have evverything solved, you might be too confident and overlook some crucial things. In the past I had some of those and caused the misvote at crucial times.

Probably that even caused one player to never show up again, and even if it was only a mini at the time, I hope that doesn't happen again.

Lets do our best and don't jump to conclusions, we can get behind towards the truth, i believe in us.

Look at was had happened and assess the situation calmly. Don't let anyone stress you or make an uncomfortable decision, be true to yourself.

If I don't make it, you know what to do. Peace.

RHK, you said you have a question about all this, right?

[DemonRHK]

Vecna N2 and rd N5 are head scratchers. Logical target both of those nights should have been Macca. What dives

[Hamilton Brian]

Kak, you clever little devil.

[Kakarroto]

I thought it would be much better on night two to potentially make another clear instead of protecting an already clear that early. No offense towards Macca, but a certified town Vecna normally offers more to town, especially if he has a gun, than a certified town Macca with no item. Also, in case I were wrong, I thought of the chance that the second nurse protect Macca. So Vecna just had more resources for us by resolving another potential case with the axe.

And I chose RD because of the damo kill the night before. Since they didn't strike Macca on night four after she was saved on night three, I thought they wont target her and instead will go for RD then. Maybe that was a bit stupid to think of me, but I thought I saw a pattern.

I guess I'm not too good with saves, the one time I was doc before we lost (to a maf ghug btw who played splendidly). That was also the game where I accused someone wrongly, just after my only successful save (which was me) and got a town misvoted. I wasn't even very rude or something, I was just very confident at the time, thought I solved the game. I was so wrong.

Anyway, I don't think that my save targets this game were too wrong. I mean, yeah, I didn't pull off a save, but my range wasn't that bad, right?

[Hamilton Brian]

Thanks for the claim; appreciate it.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

I feel dumb. I noticed the VV instead of a W. I thought nothing of it

I’m such an idiot.

I guess that clears him

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

So it’s between (mainly) me and Demon. Hamilton is basically a non factor in this vote. It’s a negligible chance

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

BUT

Just because he shot mafia doesn’t mean he’s clear. It could be his strategy. I don’t believe so.

[Hamilton Brian]

After losing as mafia last game, and having bussed ND to a kill on Day 1 so I was all by myself for the remainder of the game, I'd be loathe to try that strategy again.

[DemonRHK]

Kak is not clear. That could 100% be a fake claim. The Dave’s are spotty and the rb all of a sudden is odd.

There would have been no reason to rb Macca when killing him, and I don’t think k Will would have thought to holster it. No offense.

Brain coulda laid out some crazy detailed instructions after getting caught tho.

[Hamilton Brian]

Given that the posts were posted when they were, there's really no revision to make it make sense other than it's the truth.

[Hamilton Brian]

So let's go through these again.

N1: Bozo
N2: Darg
N3: No Kill...
N4: Damo
N5: Macca
N6: Rivera

[DemonRHK]

Given that the posts were posted when they were, there's really no revision to make it make sense other than it's the truth.

I’m just saying, faking a doc report ain’t hard. I’m not saying Kak is for sure scum, but I am still really leery.

Imma need to reread some stuff. Will still makes the most sense tho.

[Hamilton Brian]

Remaining mafia had to work alone N5 onward.

Why do we think the lone mafia would then target macca and rivera?

Well, they were certified clears. Would Will, in their limited playing time, have that sense of the game? Kind of leading the witness to even ask.

And the Spirit wagon...either there was a busser on it or there wasn't.

Why wouldn't mafia bus that day?

[Hamilton Brian]

Just getting ready to bash Kak but then read that if the save is used on a player that isn't targeted, then the costume is still in play.

Thought it was an egregious slip.