MAFIA 83: HALLOWE'EN IN THE TOYSHOP - GAME THREAD

[ND]

I'm of the mind that a)Demon be the kill for D5, b) we don't hammer, and c) all, particularly hard and soft clears try to get syntheses of current game play of spirit, will, rivera, kak, and ND done before EoN.

I think Damo's thinking around the card is sound but I think we also need to generate some clear thoughts around the players and arrive at some form of concensus for moving forward.

OK these are my thoughts on the non 'clears' [alpha order]

Demon - because of timing of grenade slightly more likely to be town than scum but maybe he was unable to be online to save brain. Slight lean to town but probably needs to be the next kill in the event of a miskill.

JWill - leantown BUT if Spi or rdr claim the card (and Kak confirms) then Will's chances of being deep scum escalate although probably third behind the other non-claimer and Demon.

Kak - I assume from his response to my proposal he is town but if he is scum what choice would he have, his hint that there might not be a reveal (I'll leave it to the cardholder to decide type stuff) might be cover. Quite simply I think with a card reveal he is town otherwise he's scum.

ND - strongly lean town, if he's deepscum I think we will probably lose.

rdr - if Spirit or Will claim the card (and Kak confirms) I think he is quite likely scum. With no card reveal I'd put him town (and obviously if he has the card he's town).

Spi - town if he has the card, scum if rdr or Will have it, probably Kak's partner if no reveal (unless Kak sole remaining scum).

Let's remember Damo's reads.

[ND]

Macca is still town, but has pie on their face for voting and never coming back. Thanks for getting me guaranteed killed Macca

Spirit looks so bad for my flip and is pretty scummy here. The logic to okay Kak and then the logic to scum me is established in the same basis (we made claims) and it's circular. I don't think this is "dumb town", I think this is just happy scum to have my death happen now and waste a MK.

I do still scum kak - I've outlined it enough already.

Could you all at least remember my reads please?

And Worcej's reads.

[ND]

I don’t get why Demon would do this if he was town. Why wouldn’t he wait until 16 minutes left and then use it so that he had more power in getting who he thought was mafia killed?

The timing of the grenade was extremely mafia telling.

Honestly, Demon did what I tried to do here with my claim - save himself while not ruining the whole phase.

Worcej's comments about DemonRHK

[ND]

There's more Worcej on 85-87 or so.

But, yeah. I think the DemonRHK thing is a red herring. I don't think it's a scum move.

Spirit killed a town clear and there really isn't much else to say about it. We need to remove him from the game and if the game doesn't end then we figure out who his partner is.

It's as simple as that.

[ND]

I'm going to vote ##END

I don't have anything else to say about it. It's very clear cut here. This isn't a tough call to make.

[Hamilton Brian]

Yeah, I might have to eat my words if I decide to end.

I'd like some caution though. Remember my paranoia about ending. So think long and hard if there's a downside to ending.

And why damo, other than the most clear, or than macca, of the claimants?

##Vote Spirit They're the main mafialean that both damo and I have.

As we weigh this out, the deliberate miskill of a townclaim weighs a lot heavier than a poorly-executed grenade toss.

[Hamilton Brian]

And I am getting the sense that there's only the one mafia remaining.

Spirit, want to just concede?

[SpiritoftheRadio]

And I am getting the sense that there's only the one mafia remaining.

Spirit, want to just concede?

Uh no, I will not be conceding. I am not mafia, and killing me is a bad move. I keep reiterating my argument, which makes complete sense for a towny to do. It literally is the best play mathematically. Idk if you and ND refuse to read it or what but like, I have laid it all out there. Quit saying it doesnt need futher discussion, you havent even discussed how it was a totally reasonable play. Like, you can scum read me if you want but this whole posturing like what I did isnt reasonable is fucking stupid. I will not be conceding, go fish

[SpiritoftheRadio]

Me doing that as final scum is literally the stupid thing I've ever heard! If I knew worcej was going to flip town from the beginning, it was a terrible move. I would know I would lose the flip and will be on the docket to be killed today if I did that, ending the game if I'm the last scum. Are you actually thinking this through HB or just saying things? like wtf

[SpiritoftheRadio]

##Vote demon

I would rather kill ND but since mfs want to end on me, I gotta back a wagon that isnt me

[TheMadMonarch]

##VOTE spirit

[Hamilton Brian]

Are you actually thinking this through HB or just saying things? like wtf

A little of A and a little of B.

I’m willing to weigh things out nor do I want a runaway wagon in case there are more mafia.

I’m not crazy about the end vote. We need to be measured and judicious.

[DemonRHK]

RIP damo.

Rdr is clear, which is like telling me the Easter bunny doesn’t exist. So I going to drop it even tho the man is in the laziest countertunnel imaginable.

Spirit’s clams he is being hammered is odd. Kak had a hard on for me and red’s vote is never moving so long as I am alive. That means every single other remaining player would have to hammer him. And I am not hammering at all this game. That fucked is last time I played.

[DemonRHK]

This is a bad spot. We only have miskill and we can’t no kill.

I really…REALLY…hate to say this, but me suicide hammering may be the best play today.

I’m like…80% it’s spirit. But if we are wrong there is no way I live through the next day with rdr and Kak baying for my blood.

Respect the dead for now.
##Vote spirit

If this becomes a stalemate, which it looks may be wholly possible as Will is very anti me as well, I’ll move to myself

[ND]

And I am getting the sense that there's only the one mafia remaining.

Spirit, want to just concede?

Uh no, I will not be conceding. I am not mafia, and killing me is a bad move. I keep reiterating my argument, which makes complete sense for a towny to do. It literally is the best play mathematically. Idk if you and ND refuse to read it or what but like, I have laid it all out there. Quit saying it doesnt need futher discussion, you havent even discussed how it was a totally reasonable play. Like, you can scum read me if you want but this whole posturing like what I did isnt reasonable is fucking stupid. I will not be conceding, go fish

Nothing you did yesterday was reasonable. It was about as anti-town as you can get. You know this too. You keep saying you want to discuss. Wtf do you want us to discuss? How you killed a town clear? It wasn't reasonable at all.

[SpiritoftheRadio]

I mean, it doesn't matter if there were one or two electroshields, it doesnt diminish the fact that a scum worcej would have needed a play to survive and thats why I thought it was likely he was scum. I dont think scum worcej would have done the math and neither did I at the time, but there were at that point 9 unclaimed items by my count and 3 potential people other than worcej who could have them (me, rdr, kak, and will, -1 because one of us has a card if you believe kak and the other claims people have made are true). That is a 6/9=66% chance of claiming an item no one has and getting away with it, better than he had that day without a claim tbh, and thats potentially booned if mafia knows town had the axe that killed ghug and knows another item themselves if one of their claims is fake already. This assumes you believe all the claims made up until worcej claimed of course.

I am happy with my decision. And would do so again knowing what I did then/will do so in future games in similar situations.

@ND, if worcej was mafia and found himself on the block (which he did), statistically his best shot was to claim a town item if he felt he was going to be killed. Therefore, killing him was the best course of action because it was the best shot a scum Worcej would have had if he was. His claim meant nothing in this light. What I did was counteract what was the best scum play. It wont work out every time, that is how probability works, but it was the best play given the information I had. Not only wasn't it anti-town, it was the best town move possible statistically. You are objectively incorrect. This was reasonable. You just dont want to absorb it.

[ND]

At this point Spirit is essentially caught and he knows it. If the game doesn't end we have to start considering who his potential partner could be.

I guess it comes down to Will, Demon, myself, and Kak.

We have town clears in Hamilton, Macca, Rdrivera.

-Rdr as the card sender, Hamilton as the man who shot Sweet, Macca as the detective.

-I don't think DemonRHK is scum. There were better plays for the grenade and he did it with over a day left although the use of the grenade did really hurt. It gave Spirit his opening to knock off a townclear. That being said idk how Demon could have foreseen that happening. So, I am still not scumreading him.

-If kak was mafia then he would have probably tried to kill the card sender Rdr although I am still unsure on when the card was sent so someone will need to point me to when that was mentioned. So he probably isn't scum.

-I'm not scum.

-So that leaves Will as Spirit's partner if Spirit has a partner.

[ND]

I mean, it doesn't matter if there were one or two electroshields, it doesnt diminish the fact that a scum worcej would have needed a play to survive and thats why I thought it was likely he was scum. I dont think scum worcej would have done the math and neither did I at the time, but there were at that point 9 unclaimed items by my count and 3 potential people other than worcej who could have them (me, rdr, kak, and will, -1 because one of us has a card if you believe kak and the other claims people have made are true). That is a 6/9=66% chance of claiming an item no one has and getting away with it, better than he had that day without a claim tbh, and thats potentially booned if mafia knows town had the axe that killed ghug and knows another item themselves if one of their claims is fake already. This assumes you believe all the claims made up until worcej claimed of course.

I am happy with my decision. And would do so again knowing what I did then/will do so in future games in similar situations.

@ND, if worcej was mafia and found himself on the block (which he did), statistically his best shot was to claim a town item if he felt he was going to be killed. Therefore, killing him was the best course of action because it was the best shot a scum Worcej would have had if he was. His claim meant nothing in this light. What I did was counteract what was the best scum play. It wont work out every time, that is how probability works, but it was the best play given the information I had. Not only wasn't it anti-town, it was the best town move possible statistically. You are objectively incorrect. This was reasonable. You just dont want to absorb it.

Jesus Christ. You love beating a dead horse. I'm not incorrect at all and it wasn't fucking reasonable. Voting to eliminate a player CLAIMING A TOWN SPECIFIC ITEM when NO ONE is countering it is not reasonable. It's a scum move. Now we have one less clear because of you. I bet you felt real good in your mafia chat after you took Worcej out. But, I'm not letting you get away with it.

[SpiritoftheRadio]

ND you just keep saying the same thing, and arent even acknowledging what I said. Info goes in "blah blah blah townclear" comes out. It doesnt matter if someone claims a town item after it becomes the best strategy for mafia to hide, and it did, right about exactly at that moment after demon claimed.

[ND]

This is how I know you are scum. You are trying to hide the motivation for what you did behind a) math, b) probability, c) while trying to spread doubt about clears. You and your partner (if you have one) are running out of room to hide.

It isn't going to work with me. Sorry. You lose this one Spirit.