MAFIA 83: HALLOWE'EN IN THE TOYSHOP - GAME THREAD

[TheMadMonarch]

OR, if we want to get really tinfoilly,

Maybe ghug did it, then HB killed him to silence him and claim credit....

[TheMadMonarch]

I'll get back to reading

[TheMadMonarch]

If someone else has the cop scan, we should know on D2.

bozo, you're smarter than me. How does this work?

[TheMadMonarch]

If we take damo's assertion that there are no mafia on Bona on its face, then that leaves a pool of: Kak, Rivera, macca, worcej, demon, darg, ND, and Vecna. So 2 or 3 out of that pool are mafia.

But what's more believable? There was no mafia on Bona or there was one or more mafia on Bona?

This post is meaningless

[Hamilton Brian]

I think its possible a scum member saw this as a ghug claim (which would cement him [-ish] as town), and decided to get rid of a conf townie. maybe. My first thought when I saw this ghug post was that he did it.

That's what bozo asserts. Mafia item-hunting?

[Hamilton Brian]

If we take damo's assertion that there are no mafia on Bona on its face, then that leaves a pool of: Kak, Rivera, macca, worcej, demon, darg, ND, and Vecna. So 2 or 3 out of that pool are mafia.

But what's more believable? There was no mafia on Bona or there was one or more mafia on Bona?

This post is meaningless

How so?

[TheMadMonarch]

How many mafia members are there now?

[TheMadMonarch]

I think its possible a scum member saw this as a ghug claim (which would cement him [-ish] as town), and decided to get rid of a conf townie. maybe. My first thought when I saw this ghug post was that he did it.

That's what bozo asserts. Mafia item-hunting?

Item hunting? How?

[TheMadMonarch]

If we take damo's assertion that there are no mafia on Bona on its face, then that leaves a pool of: Kak, Rivera, macca, worcej, demon, darg, ND, and Vecna. So 2 or 3 out of that pool are mafia.

But what's more believable? There was no mafia on Bona or there was one or more mafia on Bona?

This post is meaningless

How so?

Someone else said this thing.

Which is more likely? [two statement where one is necessarily true, and neither can be pointed too without going through the reasoning that one would pull out to be helpful.]

[Hamilton Brian]

How many mafia members are there now?

2 or 3. We don't know if the game started with 4 or 3.

Regarding the item-hunting, I am not sure. Knowing that there's variety of items out there, picking off town might prompt lost items. I don't know. Either ghug didn't have anything or we don't get to know the item.

[Hamilton Brian]

This post is meaningless

How so?

Someone else said this thing.

Which is more likely? [two statement where one is necessarily true, and neither can be pointed too without going through the reasoning that one would pull out to be helpful.]

You're losing me, or I am just not following.

[TheMadMonarch]

How many mafia members are there now?

2 or 3. We don't know if the game started with 4 or 3.

Regarding the item-hunting, I am not sure. Knowing that there's variety of items out there, picking off town might prompt lost items. I don't know. Either ghug didn't have anything or we don't get to know the item.

##CALL GM

Are items revealed on flip?

[brainbomb]

How many mafia members are there now?

2 or 3. We don't know if the game started with 4 or 3.

Regarding the item-hunting, I am not sure. Knowing that there's variety of items out there, picking off town might prompt lost items. I don't know. Either ghug didn't have anything or we don't get to know the item.

##CALL GM

Are items revealed on flip?

this feels like something macca would ask in maf chat and then also in game to gain cred

[TheMadMonarch]

How so?

Someone else said this thing.

Which is more likely? [two statement where one is necessarily true, and neither can be pointed too without going through the reasoning that one would pull out to be helpful.]

You're losing me, or I am just not following.

The first part is you repeating what damo said. You're not adding to the conversation.

The second part is technically true, but achieves no information. In order for us to tell how many people were or were not bussing bona, we have to think about the busssing likelyhood (and other factors) for each person. Knowing the numbers is meaningless by itself, it just tells us how many to look for, giving us the same targets we just had to get to these numbers.

You're saying a lot of words to mean actually nothing.

[TheMadMonarch]

2 or 3. We don't know if the game started with 4 or 3.

Regarding the item-hunting, I am not sure. Knowing that there's variety of items out there, picking off town might prompt lost items. I don't know. Either ghug didn't have anything or we don't get to know the item.

##CALL GM

Are items revealed on flip?

this feels like something macca would ask in maf chat and then also in game to gain cred

You're right. I would. I'm not mafia, but that is something I have done in previous games.

[ND]

Analysis

I want to start the analysis on Page 34 specifically with Sweet’s flip. I would ask you all to remind yourself of Sweet’s involvement with Will specifically on page 17-18 which I pointed out on Page 22. In my post on Page 22, I noted that Ghug approached Will with some words of encouragement, but also opened a line of inquiry. Sweet did no such thing. He wasn’t concerned at all about Will. Something I noted. Going back to the beginning, we can see that he personally greeted Will on Page 2. He defends Will on Page 16. Side note, I still think Darg’s reason for voting Sweet is odd although he did prove correct. Page 23, Sweet defends Will again. Defend. Defend. Defend. Hedges a tiny bit on page 27, “there is a small chance ND could actually be right.” Which could be a setup for a vote on Will if needed. In brief, there are multiple connections with Sweet and Will throughout, most of which is Sweet defending Will and attempting to sweep my case under the rug. We know that Sweet has flipped scum so either a) Sweet was attempting to carefully buddy Will or b) Sweet was trying to get Will through the day as best as he could.

For EOD (Page 35+)

EOD starts with Sweet dying and as Page 34 turns to 35 there are some vote movements. Will, for example, immediately votes Hamilton as soon as Sweet died and who was Sweet voting for? Hamilton. Spirit pushes Bona on page 35, “Now can I convince anyone to kill Bona?” (Spirit, 35) and also states that the Hamilton wagon is bad. Yet, doesn’t question Will for voting Hamilton as soon as Sweet dies? You know who does? Bona. Bona states, “lmao??” (Bona, 35) in response to Will’s vote. Will says, “Hehe, my intuition was right!” (Will, 35) but strangely votes for the same person Sweet was voting for. No explanation. Bozo comes in on 35 and asks Will a question, “Do you think sweetandcool was bussing?” (Bozo, 35) and then goes on to make a statement about needing new wagons. Hamilton continues to give a bit of pressure to Will and appears supportive of the case, “But Will jumping on? Maybe ND is totally on to something.” (Hamilton, 35) Simple commentary and goes back to something I asked Hamilton about earlier around 20 or so. Just because someone votes for you doesn’t make them mafia and Hamilton’s point about “Now Bona and Ghug on there too? Why would mafia coalesce like that?” (Hamilton, 35) That hasn’t aged well, but given his later claim I would say he is a town clear imo. Ghug indicates a desire to push the vote somewhere else. Will says something nonsensical about bussing; Ghug votes for Damo666 (We will get to Damo666 shortly).

Bozo responds to Will “that is possible” (Bozo, 36) to a remark Will said about HB/Sweet both being mafia. He is also skeptical that Sweet, “would bus HB like that after last game” (Bozo, 36) Question, why? Will claims that he “studied up” (Will, 36) on Page 36 which is a massive red flag given his litany of weirdly bizarre comments earlier in the game about how voting works, who is voting for him, voting for low/high frequency posters, etc., etc., etc. Hamilton claims that he used the toy on Sweet (Hamilton, 36) and Worcej enters stating, “Lawls -I am proud of the fact I got someone right for once!” (Worcej, 36) before voting Brain quickly followed by Ghug’s death. Bozo makes a remark, “I suspect that shot was by mafia.” (Bozo, 36) Why? Will then unvotes Hamilton before moving on to softing his next vote on Brain (Will, 36). Brain then follows by voting for Damo which is also Ghug’s last vote at the end of page 36. Bozo begins a push on Brain (Page, 36) and then Bozo immediately jumps ship to Worcej (Page, 37). Apparently desperately searching for a wagon. Also giving really subpar reasoning “maybe worcej was bussing sweetandcool.” (Bozo, 37) Why? We will see that Bozo is obsessed with bussing. Darg then votes for Rdr claiming, “my gut simply pounts me to rdr.” (Darg, 37) No explanation or reasoning. Brain comments on Bozo’s desperation, “This is weirdly agreeable you go from assuming im mafia who soft defended a buddy to accepting the first answer I gave and transitioning into scumbread my main detractor lol.” (Brain, 37) I would say that Bozo’s behavior at EOD was more than weird. It’s 100% off. The rational, logical, Bozo that we saw game solve in the last game has become a desperate, sad, little clown, running from wagon to wagon and trying to start something. Why?

Darg then switches his mind and votes for Brain at the end of Page 37. The wagon continues to strengthen with Will adding fuel to the fire at the top of 38. Why, you may wonder? Well, “their posts are sus.” (Will, 38) Obviously, this is a bullshit post. Darg for all his points about meta analysis including his initial ‘tin foil hat’ reasoning for voting sweet then employs meta to frame his vote on Brain, “Brain also did the tell I often see him do when he’s scum.” (Darg, 38) Which is actually funny. No one calls this out then. And, although Bozo is obsessed with bussing it doesn’t seem to attract his notice. Hamilton gives a bit of thought process/discussion to Ghug on 38. Darg makes a post about my case against Will.

Now, there’s a very interesting thing that happens on Page 38. Brain claims, “this is dumb my item is the detective kit so killing me would be atrociously stupid. Get off me now thank you” (Brain, 38) He made this post at 4:38 which is over an hour before the final deadline to vote. Brain knows that wagons are fluid, especially on the first day. He also had already identified (37) people like Bozo who were scurrying around looking for a wagon. While his wagon could have dissipated with time, I wager he made the claim with the hope that enough time remained that we could catch another scum member. There could be other reasons, but I’m not going there yet. Spirit makes a theory, “if mafia shot ghug, brain is probably the only fall guy since he was Ghug’s scum read, and now several people in on him based on ‘tells’ seems suspicions.” (Spirit, 38) But, after making the post, he backtracks “I don’t really scum read will or darg thu, so idk.” (Spirit, 38) Which is an important note. Almost as if he regretted making his post. Bozo comments a bit on his extremely bizarre behavior at the bottom of 38, and identifies that Brain has “claimed a town only item.” (Bozo, 38) Spirit dismisses this point almost immediately (Page 39) Which is interesting because already on 38-39 we see Spirit as someone who backtracks and is dismissive of a player who has claimed a investigative power.

Bozo makes an interesting connection, which has also crossed my mind, “it is possible ghug was shot because he voted for damo.” (Bozo, 39) This has crossed my mind as well. Bozo also responds to Spirit, “Yes, but if he is fake claiming we will find out eventually.” (Bozo, 39) He then immediately backtracks, “Although claiming the item the mafia would want to draw out is suspicious, or unlucky.” (Bozo, 39) Darg also casts some doubts on this and votes rdr (39, Darg). Spirit attempts to understand the case against rdr following this vote. Which hasn’t been explained and then Brain puts some fuel to the rdr fire by voting for him as well (39, Brain). Bona asks why Hamilton is town and Bozo says it would be, “impressive play to shoot your mafia teammate for town credit, I was not considering that possibility. So you are right, even if no one else claims to have shot sweetandcool, HB is not clear.” (Bozo, 39) This is actually absurd. Totally absurd. I can’t recall a single game where a mafia member has had a kill item and they have killed a teammate. Maybe, a broader rules question, but I would argue it would be completely against the mafia win condition to execute members of their own team. This point from Bozo is absolutely suspicious. We have someone, Hamilton, who is about as clear as you can get. What does Bozo do? Tries to obfuscate that. Bozo then says, “Are you still bussing HB” to Bona (Bozo, 39) Bozo really reads like scum on Page 39. Spirit also pivots to this line on page 39 like a parrot following Bozo along from tree to tree.

Damo enters on page 40. I’ll speak to him soon enough. Brain explains his vote on Rdr (Brain, 40) while Spirit pushes Bona (Spirit 40). Damo then votes for Worcej without giving a reason and also disparaging the other wagons. The reasons for not wanting to vote Will, “I don’t want to kill a newbie.” (Damo, 40) Stupid. Brain also states that he would choose Worcej over Will (Brain, 40) and again why? Bozo asks Damo why he voted for Darg (Bozo, 40) and Hamilton switches his vote to Bona (Hamilton, 40). Brain then votes for Worcej after softing the vote and Rdr votes for Darg after calling his wagon ‘garbage’. (Rdr, 40) Kak makes a half assed post where he floats the idea of killing a town clear (Kak, 40) and Damo starts to try and herd people towards Worcej and Bona (Damo, 40). Damo then votes for Bona stating, “I’m suspicious of Bona not being on a main wagon.” (Damo, 41) I don’t know what kind of logic this is but it’s batshit nuts. Hamilton tells people to get off Brain (Hamilton, 41) and Damo continues to push Bona (Damo, 41) Bozo, argues about Kakarroto (Bozo, 41) and Damo responds to me telling me that, “Nobody will vote Will.” (Damo, 41) Thus, we see a clear picture. Damo is interested in being on a wagon with votes and encouraging others to vote for the wagon he is on. What’s the case on Bona? They aren’t on ‘a main wagon.’ It’s just totally bullshit. Damo fucking railroaded Bona on Page 40 and 41. I tell him I’m not moving my vote and he states, “not town strategic.” (Damo, 41) I don’t know what he means by this but what he is doing is absolutely not pro-town play at all. Bozo then softs a flash wagon on me showing his desire to once again jump ship and vote for a new wagon, “We could vote ND out again, maybe he is so sure because he is bussing.” (Bozo, 41) Bozo is obsessed with bussing which has been noted here in this analysis and is in the record. This is troubling concerning he showed game solving prowess in the last game and here he reads like an nitwit jumping wagon to wagon showing no analytical skill and barebones reading comprehension at that. I wager that it is scum indicative play from Bozo here.

Will of course, enters the fray now and states, “I’m still voting brain. A tie would be okay if it did end up happening” (Will, 41) Again, anti-town play. He is cool voting for someone claiming to have a town only item and also tying the game which as everyone knows produces zero information. Yet, the, “OH GEE HE IS TOWN” chorus will explain this away. Damo then follow’s up on Bozo’s wagon soft by voting for me at the bottom of 41 claiming, “his refusal to move is suss.” (Damo, 41) Showing absolutely zero analysis and logical thinking. What a flaming moron. Bozo, then votes Bona (Bozo, 41) which is going to seal the deal unfortunately for Bona.

Hamilton refutes Will’s logic(?) on page 42. Kak asks why people are voting Worcej which again is unexplained because the nitwits have zero logic for most of these votes. Rdr states he is willing to vote for Bona if needed but doesn’t see a reason to scum read him. So why vote for him? WHY do people vote for people they don’t scum read? Bonkers. Will says, “If you want someone dead so bad: ##VOTE DARGORYGEL” (Will, 42) Bozo says, “Sorry, cross vote” in response to Damo’s vote on me. I guess, explaining that he is sorry to Damo for not voting me? Who knows with these weirdos. Brain then votes for Bona (Page 42) and Will tells me to chill (Page 42) Damo switches his vote to Bona and Will also follows the train. Brain arguably hedges at the end which reflects he is unsure, but it’s pretty much decided at that point. The rapid succession of votes on Bona here guaranteed Bona’s death. The next biggest contenders were Dargorygel, Brain, Rdr. Brain would not have been a D1 vote. I would have stepped into prevent that, but there was no danger of it actually happening at eod. The other wagons, rdr and darg were tied with 2 and if it hadn’t of broken for Bona then I wager it would have resulted in a Darg kill over Rdr, but it’s impossible to say for sure. There could have been an element of prioritization or mafia manipulation there to make sure one of those wagons did not take off. It’s worth thinking about that. Which would mean that Darg and Rdr should be questioned more intensely.

So, what do we have here?
-Bozo, the man obsessed with bussing never questions Darg’s ‘tin foil’ hat vote on Sweet from earlier in the game and teams up with Damo to railroad Bona after desperately searching for over an hour and a half to start a wagon. And puts forth an outrageously stupid idea that Hamilton potentially shot a member of his own team for, ‘town cred’.
-Damo, also deeply obsessed with starting wagons and his own image floats wagons, jumps around, chastises people for holding firm on acutal cases (me) and voting for Bona for not being on a, ‘main wagon.’
-Spirit, the ultimate follower who is willing to tip toe behind Bozo.
-Will, a floundering scumbag who sealed Bona’s death.
-Darg, someone who displayed zero analysis or reading and simply went on his ‘gut’ contradicted himself by voting Brain for a ‘meta tell’ and left his vote unexplained on rdr.
-Kak softed a potential vote/wagon on HB (town clear) late into the day.

The rest are essentially useless and irrelevant most especially Vecna who couldn’t even be bothered to show up and vote at eod.

The scum are in this group: Will, Macca, Bozo, Damo, Spirit, Kak, Darg
Townclear: Brain/Hamilton
Null: Everyone else

[ND]

I will answer any potential questions later. I need a break now.

[TheMadMonarch]

Reading all the EOD votes rn and going crazy. unlikely to draw any real conclusion soon. Will come back later

[dargorygel]

Why ghug?

[TheMadMonarch]

Should we discuss item plays?

Better to go early? or Later?

Who should BB scan? If he's lying, should the real one scan him? Or is it a Brainbomb thing and he's still town?

Do we have any predictions good enough for doc? BB?

Power Pill? Wagons don't usually form until the back half of the day, so one is unlikely to know if they need it during the night? Is there a benefit to holding?

Greetings card? This one I think is safer earlier?

Motorcycle? Similar to Doc?


The primary risk I see with holding is dying with an idol in your pocket? Do we have any idea who scum might target tonight? The hypothetically townclear (i disagree) HB?