M1026: ghughog Day [Game Thread]

[Jamiet99uk]

So, the reason I object to Bozo's plan is twofold:

- Randomly offing someone is far more likely to flip a random townie than flip a random scumbo.

- Randomly killing a townie gives us very little to analyse, after they flip.

More simply, it's a crappy plan.

[damo666]

So, the reason I object to Bozo's plan is twofold:

- Randomly offing someone is far more likely to flip a random townie than flip a random scumbo.

- Randomly killing a townie gives us very little to analyse, after they flip.

More simply, it's a crappy plan.

OK but can you think of a good reason to vote anyone. I can't. I'm just guessing. It's 5-2.


##vote Ham

Let's get a wagon going, it may assist VCA.

[ND]

Do you think you can do better than 25% in identify mafia and getting them DKed D1?

I mean you can actually read the game and ask questions instead of coming up with a crackpot, hair-brained 'lottery drawing' lol

I disagree with your characterization of my suggestion.

I can't believe you seriously think a 'random lottery' in a tiny game like this is an idea worth defending. Bizarre.

[ND]

Quick post shower thoughts. I think scum is in this group [bozo, ham, slippyandcool] and outside chance of a Jam. Neutral on burp. If you are not noted then neutral or town lean. Going to think about it more omw to work and comment later with more thoughts.

[Jamiet99uk]

In my opinion, with no real information to go on D1, 2 mafia out of 8 players should be successful in preventing a mafia DK at least 90% of the time. Therefore, I suggest we use a real time random event to select the DK, giving us approximately a 25% chance of DKing a mafia D1, not accounting for doctor claims.

@Damo: You enjoy percentages. Can you comment on Bozo's probability analysis please?

[brainbomb]

everyone else has been pretty unforced and mostly carefree.

bozo plan is interesting in a game where there are no quality game solvers to get behind. although I think Jamie and worcej have these skills, and damo does when he gives a shit. bozo never does day one. sweet can do it but has out of game commitments to focus on. and then ND is probably capable of game solving as he is an academic with a PHD. he just doesnt do a good job of relating to others so towns like to turn on him early for his abrasive superiority complex

I take this as a compliment. Thanks BB.

Take it as possible pocketing.

But why assume the worst and not just assume these are what I actually think of people?

[bozotheclown]

So, the reason I object to Bozo's plan is twofold:

- Randomly offing someone is far more likely to flip a random townie than flip a random scumbo.

- Randomly killing a townie gives us very little to analyse, after they flip.

More simply, it's a crappy plan.

OK but can you think of a good reason to vote anyone. I can't. I'm just guessing. It's 5-2.


##vote Ham

Let's get a wagon going, it may assist VCA.

With 6 town players having a 2 in 7 chance of voting for a mafia, assuming the mafia do not vote for each other, there is only an expected 1.7 total votes for mafia.

##VOTE Hamilton Brian

[bozotheclown]

That leave 6.3 votes for town, so the average expected vote total for each town would be 1.05, and the average expected vote total for each mafia would be 0.85.

[Jamiet99uk]

That leave 6.3 votes for town, so the average expected vote total for each town would be 1.05, and the average expected vote total for each mafia would be 0.85.

That's Numberwang!

[Jamiet99uk]

That leave 6.3 votes for town, so the average expected vote total for each town would be 1.05, and the average expected vote total for each mafia would be 0.85.

##Call Damo

[damo666]

In my opinion, with no real information to go on D1, 2 mafia out of 8 players should be successful in preventing a mafia DK at least 90% of the time. Therefore, I suggest we use a real time random event to select the DK, giving us approximately a 25% chance of DKing a mafia D1, not accounting for doctor claims.

@Damo: You enjoy percentages. Can you comment on Bozo's probability analysis please?

No idea about the 90%. The 25% is 2 out of 8 I guess.

From a town pov randomly selecting another player is 2/7 or about 28.6% which is better than being dictated by a random event. So Bozo's plan is a non starter. However I don't think scumbozo would have suggested this. If we assume Bozo is town then nonBozo randomly selecting a nonBozo player other than themslves is now a 33.33% chance. Yippee!

[damo666]

That leave 6.3 votes for town, so the average expected vote total for each town would be 1.05, and the average expected vote total for each mafia would be 0.85.

##Call Damo

(12/7)/2 = 6/7 or 85.7% to 1 dp

(8 -12/7)/6=44/42=22/21 or 1.05 to 1 dp

Bozo is correct.

[Jamiet99uk]

Unofficial Vote Count

Hamilton Brian (3) - sweetandcool, damo666, bozotheclown
Durga (2) - ND, Brainbomb
ND (1) - Jamiet99uk
sweetandcool (1) - Hamilton Brian
Fuck Canada (1) - Worcej

[bozotheclown]

In my opinion, with no real information to go on D1, 2 mafia out of 8 players should be successful in preventing a mafia DK at least 90% of the time. Therefore, I suggest we use a real time random event to select the DK, giving us approximately a 25% chance of DKing a mafia D1, not accounting for doctor claims.

@Damo: You enjoy percentages. Can you comment on Bozo's probability analysis please?

No idea about the 90%. The 25% is 2 out of 8 I guess.

From a town pov randomly selecting another player is 2/7 or about 28.6% which is better than being dictated by a random event. So Bozo's plan is a non starter. However I don't think scumbozo would have suggested this. If we assume Bozo is town then nonBozo randomly selecting a nonBozo player other than themslves is now a 33.33% chance. Yippee!

The 25% is the chance that DKing a randomly selected player will DK a mafia, but the 28.6% is that chance that each of the 6 town players randomly votes for a mafia, so you are not comparing the same thing.

[ND]

##Vote Hamilton

I like Ham as a wagon, but I am suspicious of a few people on the wagon.

[sweetandcool]

I take this as a compliment. Thanks BB.

Take it as possible pocketing.

But why assume the worst and not just assume these are what I actually think of people?

The best pocketing comes from the heart. I'm sure you meant what you said.

[ND]

In my opinion, with no real information to go on D1, 2 mafia out of 8 players should be successful in preventing a mafia DK at least 90% of the time. Therefore, I suggest we use a real time random event to select the DK, giving us approximately a 25% chance of DKing a mafia D1, not accounting for doctor claims.

@Damo: You enjoy percentages. Can you comment on Bozo's probability analysis please?

No idea about the 90%. The 25% is 2 out of 8 I guess.

From a town pov randomly selecting another player is 2/7 or about 28.6% which is better than being dictated by a random event. So Bozo's plan is a non starter. However I don't think scumbozo would have suggested this. If we assume Bozo is town then nonBozo randomly selecting a nonBozo player other than themslves is now a 33.33% chance. Yippee!

It's a bad idea and I'm highly skeptical. Why do you discount the possibility that this could be a 'scumbozo?' Things like this historically are suggested by people who want to offer filler content, are lazy or are scum. Plus this is a game with a tiny amount of players. I would argue it is absolutely anti town to come up with a crackpot 'event' that is 'random' which removes player agency in actually being able to reason and deduce. So I am skeptical of bozo for his theory then his defense against my characterization.

[ND]

I'll think more on this and check in later can't type much got a busy afternoon coming up.

[Jamiet99uk]

##Vote Hamilton

I like Ham as a wagon, but I am suspicious of a few people on the wagon.

There were three other people on the Hamilton Brian wagon when you said this.

Your use of "a few" seems to be a statement that you suspect more than one of them, but not all three.

Which of sweetandcool, damo666, and bozotheclown do you not suspect?

Why do you suspect the other two?

[sweetandcool]

@Damo: You enjoy percentages. Can you comment on Bozo's probability analysis please?

No idea about the 90%. The 25% is 2 out of 8 I guess.

From a town pov randomly selecting another player is 2/7 or about 28.6% which is better than being dictated by a random event. So Bozo's plan is a non starter. However I don't think scumbozo would have suggested this. If we assume Bozo is town then nonBozo randomly selecting a nonBozo player other than themslves is now a 33.33% chance. Yippee!

It's a bad idea and I'm highly skeptical. Why do you discount the possibility that this could be a 'scumbozo?' Things like this historically are suggested by people who want to offer filler content, are lazy or are scum. Plus this is a game with a tiny amount of players. I would argue it is absolutely anti town to come up with a crackpot 'event' that is 'random' which removes player agency in actually being able to reason and deduce. So I am skeptical of bozo for his theory then his defense against my characterization.

Bozo has suggested such a plan in the past as well. It's NAI to me.