M82: Magic the Gathering Mafia [Game Thread]

[Kakarroto]

Sweet. I’m mostly with you.

Sadly bona was a townread of mine…so if I’m right about him and he’s wrong about me this time.

Either way I want to point out to EVERYONE that rdr is playing identical to last game and is also STILL ALIVE. Both are scum tells. He’s also in everyone’s POE (except Vecna, who didn’t even MENTION RDR!!)

##vote rdr

I think one difference is that I don't think anyone has really actually even casually expressed suspicion of rdr this game. Last game there was plenty of it, but nobody acted on it because they were distracted.

But yeah, rdr is simply in my purview because there is noone else left who it could be.

My scumpool is literally 3 now.

So I guess I could vote rdr.

Bona was the most townie out of the pool of 4 I had before Fox died. And he was only in the pool because of the other players being even more townie.

I still doubt maf-rd would end vote you on D1 there in that way. This just doesn't fit how rd thinks when he is mafia, that draws too much attention to him. I mean, I'm open to think he evolves his game, but this must've been on an impulse and unplanned and I refuse to believe that was maf-rd there.

And nothing else points at maf-rd either. I think the only possibility I'd ever vote rd is to save me, but then again, if it's a tally between him and me, I'm sure we've already lost.

[Kakarroto]

hmmm, it might be the case that scum is currently even trying to bus their black night, since that also means they win, doesnt it?

Ergo, bona might just be making a convincing case on Bunny because bunny is the black knight.

Meaning that even if we kill bunny and thats his role, we do not have a daykill next day, meaning scum also auto win.

If that role exist, the only way we can still win is if we kill that 1 last.

This ofcourse only applies if theyre gambling on no day exiler existing.

that is ... actually quite scary. Looking at the roles, there is the arsonist, the dayshortener, the black knight, the vanillizer and two goons.

We know the dayshortener has been used now and with three mafia, there are two slots left. I think we don't have a vanillizer, I think by now we would've triggered a phrase. Though we are only at page 41, so maybe there still is a small chance.

The arsonist ... hmm, maybe mafia thinks of holding it back, but then again, it looks like a powerful role with the hidden target. Well, maybe mafia was afraid of the possibility of a watcher in the game and put the arsonist on the backseat for faster nk's. Hmmm. Maybe they keep the arsonist in the backhand if we get to vote out a mafia today. Then again, there is the thought of "if you don't use it you lose it". Yeah, I'm not sure.

The black knight might indeed be a big threat, but then again, mafia can only profit from the ability if they're voted out. So that player would play in a fashion to draw the dayvote, right? Hmm. That's something to think about. Then again, would mafia not instead try to just get a town member to be voted out? That would be still the preferred way, right?

And then there are two goon roles. If I haven't overlooked something, mafia isn't guaranteed 2 power roles like town, so it could just be that. Though they could get 3 too, I think? So that would look something like that:

DS (dayshortener) + 2 goons
DS + arsonist + black knight
DS + arsonist + goon
DS + black knight + goon

and the ones with one goon have a higher chance of being drawn since there are two chances this could be. I don't know the math exactly and I don't want to get into an argument with aaro about it right now, but I think the most likely teams would be

DS+ arsonist + goon and DS + black knight + goon

so I guess we really should be prepared in case there is a black knight.

[Kakarroto]

Ergo, bona might just be making a convincing case on Bunny because bunny is the black knight.

Meaning that even if we kill bunny and thats his role, we do not have a daykill next day, meaning scum also auto win.

If that role exist, the only way we can still win is if we kill that 1 last.

This ofcourse only applies if theyre gambling on no day exiler existing.

I don't think there is an arsonist. Só, it's 2 goon woebringer and phrase vanilizer in play. This setup is sooo Mafia sided....

hmm ... you think there is no arsonist? hmm, yeah, maybe. Though I think there is no vanillizer or at least the chance for it is so low that we will not trigger the phrase anymore. So maybe it's just DS + black knight + goon.

[Bonatogether]

Btw, I cannot recall bona EVER making a case like that. I’m flattered. I’m pretty sure I have you right this game, bona. Wtf can you not get onboard too? It is true I think we’re both better scum players than town players…maybe that’s why we can’t sync?

i've cased people before

[Kakarroto]

Anyway, I still think we should not vote sweet or rd. I'm pretty sure Brian is one of our mafia. That means that two out of bunny, bona and Vecna are mafia.

If Vecna is town, his thought of bona bussing bunny to get the black knight effect could be golden and just the breakthrough we need. I'm just not sure enough to believe Vecna is town right there.

Hmm. How sure are you that bunny is the black knight, Vecna? And who do you think is most likely mafia but most unlikely the black knight? Who do you think we should vote then here?

[Kakarroto]

bona, since you here, are you bussing bunny? Is he your black knight?

If there is a black knight, who do you think would it be?

[sweetandcool]

with now knowing fox was actually town, I can't believe he tunneled me that much. The bona-thing and the rd-thing for saving just makes no sense to me. Even if both are mafia, which I highly doubt, why would they save a town?

And I hate that brian is in his townreads. Regarding vecna, if he's town, he might be kept alive to stir up that fear, yeah, I can see that. Ugh.

Well the only really helpful is his read of bunny here, I think. Then again, fox is wrong on me. So I'm not sure how much I can give fox here. I'll consider his thoughts there at least for a little bit, I think.

You get death-tunnelled by town all the time.

This reads fake as fuck

nah, in the last games it was especially the mafia that pushed that hard, like jamie and bunny or DL. Town usually goes back on tunneling me. Well, jamie and bunny tried to do that too in the pirate game, to be fair, but not too much and it felt fake.

And fox felt malicious in the way he centered every theory around me as if he needed me to be gone. There was a time where I considered that he'd be the vanillizer since I tried to trigger the phrase and he just didn't like that. Though seeing that nothing happened there, we probably have no vanillizer in the game. Anyway, it felt not coming from a good place and like setting a stage, where he wanted D2 to be about something else and with the day shortened and then causing another mk today.

I guess I need to get better at reading fox.

Positive or negative, you've been a major part of everyone's reads due to the fact that you were the lead wagon for most of D1. And D1 VCA is practically all we have.

[Bonatogether]

bona, since you here, are you bussing bunny? Is he your black knight?

If there is a black knight, who do you think would it be?

i am not, and have never been, a member of the american communist party

[Hamilton Brian]

Current thoughts:

Disagree with Bunny that Fox wasn't townread. I think Fox (and yes sweet, you and bona did too and I am not discounting the work that you two put forward) presented information in a pretty solid way that at least gave them towncred to me, and I am certain there were others.

So why was Fox killed? Did Fox create a narrative that would maintain itself in collective town consciousness? Was it PR hunting?

[sweetandcool]

Current thoughts:

Disagree with Bunny that Fox wasn't townread. I think Fox (and yes sweet, you and bona did too and I am not discounting the work that you two put forward) presented information in a pretty solid way that at least gave them towncred to me, and I am certain there were others.

So why was Fox killed? Did Fox create a narrative that would maintain itself in collective town consciousness? Was it PR hunting?

Fox was killed because Mafia thought they were Townclear.

Mafia was wrong about that, but it only became apparent when everybody posted their reads at EoN.

[Kakarroto]

bona, since you here, are you bussing bunny? Is he your black knight?

If there is a black knight, who do you think would it be?

i am not, and have never been, a member of the american communist party

ok then, but at least give your input to who might be the black knight. Or do you believe there is none? In that case what roles do you think mafia has?

[Bonatogether]

bona, since you here, are you bussing bunny? Is he your black knight?

If there is a black knight, who do you think would it be?

i am not, and have never been, a member of the american communist party

ok then, but at least give your input to who might be the black knight. Or do you believe there is none? In that case what roles do you think mafia has?

i barely know the roles in play, i have no idea. i refuse to think about mechs unless it can give hard information, and speculation isn't that

[Kakarroto]

hmm ...

maybe Vecna is just right.

[Hamilton Brian]

Current thoughts:

Disagree with Bunny that Fox wasn't townread. I think Fox (and yes sweet, you and bona did too and I am not discounting the work that you two put forward) presented information in a pretty solid way that at least gave them towncred to me, and I am certain there were others.

So why was Fox killed? Did Fox create a narrative that would maintain itself in collective town consciousness? Was it PR hunting?

Fox was killed because Mafia thought they were Townclear.

Mafia was wrong about that, but it only became apparent when everybody posted their reads at EoN.

Is that how it is?

[sweetandcool]

hmm ...

maybe Vecna is just right.

Why? Why Bona? Other than not making it into people's townreads, why suspect Bona? Why prefer them over another player?

The only reason I can see that someone would want to vote Bona is if they subscribe to the theory that Bona saved scum Kak D1.

[Kakarroto]

hmm ...

maybe Vecna is just right.

Why? Why Bona? Other than not making it into people's townreads, why suspect Bona? Why prefer them over another player?

The only reason I can see that someone would want to vote Bona is if they subscribe to the theory that Bona saved scum Kak D1.

well I know bona isn't a fan of mechanics. He does think about it though if it's really important. His total disregard here is not what I'd expect from town-bona.

[sweetandcool]

hmm ...

maybe Vecna is just right.

Why? Why Bona? Other than not making it into people's townreads, why suspect Bona? Why prefer them over another player?

The only reason I can see that someone would want to vote Bona is if they subscribe to the theory that Bona saved scum Kak D1.

well I know bona isn't a fan of mechanics. He does think about it though if it's really important. His total disregard here is not what I'd expect from town-bona.

Please explain to me as if I were a moron.

What total disregard?

[Bonatogether]

hmm ...

maybe Vecna is just right.

Why? Why Bona? Other than not making it into people's townreads, why suspect Bona? Why prefer them over another player?

The only reason I can see that someone would want to vote Bona is if they subscribe to the theory that Bona saved scum Kak D1.

well I know bona isn't a fan of mechanics. He does think about it though if it's really important. His total disregard here is not what I'd expect from town-bona.

i don't dispute that it's important, but it's unknowable and it's unclear what we'd get even if we do somehow successfully divine that the black knight is in play.

[Kakarroto]

then again, maybe maf-Vecna expected something like that to make him look good and drive away the vote from his partner bunny.

I guess that's possible. I don't know. I'm just sure that we should get rid of Brian today.

[Kakarroto]

Why? Why Bona? Other than not making it into people's townreads, why suspect Bona? Why prefer them over another player?

The only reason I can see that someone would want to vote Bona is if they subscribe to the theory that Bona saved scum Kak D1.

well I know bona isn't a fan of mechanics. He does think about it though if it's really important. His total disregard here is not what I'd expect from town-bona.

Please explain to me as if I were a moron.

What total disregard?

you mean the post where he told me he refuse to think about it?

Though he just posted now and explained his logic here. Ok fair, I can understand this. I think though it looks like the black knight is more likely than the other roles.

Well, now I want rd to look at it and give me his thoughts and input about it.