M82: Magic the Gathering Mafia [Game Thread]

[ghug]

VCA with just a single town flip is cringe but I like sweet's better than bona's.

[Foxcastle]

fox was one of the original damo voters but wouldn't consider voting for him at eod. why that is is not immediately clear to me.

Ghug asked me about my position on Damo and I explained it, in case you missed that.

[Foxcastle]

Sweet has a weird progression.

I can't tell if his initial vote on Kak is a joke vote or not ("I'm down to vote the current group mom."). But then he says, "Actually, reading through things, I feel alright about this vote. Kak feels like Kak trying to be Kak." My interpretation of this is that there's emphasis on trying, i.e., scum making effort to act their town meta.

Then another jokey post on Kak's scum game being something about not writing stories with flavor or something. This is all in the first four hours, so very much joke phase, except that the justification after his vote is not jokey.

Halfway through (28:15), he responds to Worcej, "Hmmm, you don't think we should vote Kak for feeling like Kak trying to be Kak?" Then about 15 hours before EOD he has a post where he spends some time on Bunny and Bona before deciding to stay on Kak.

5 hours before EOD, Brian asks Sweet about his vote, and Sweet says, "I explained my vote for Kak a post or two after it. Kak seems *off*." He's been consistent about explaining his vote as being for Kak trying to act like town-Kak, but now it's the vagueness of Kak seeming "off."

2:52 before EOD, " I'm clearly down for Kak, and am okay with rdr."

22 min before EOD, "I wish Brainbomb were around to tell us Kak's normal scumgame. It is certainly true that Kak is misunderstanding people left and right. Which I normally scumread that behavior. But everytime I've been dead wrong." This is where he changes his vote to me.

Tries to get a wagon on me going, then votes Damo. It's not clear to me where he shifts from Kak being a good vote to Kak's wagon being "crap" enough that he feels he has resort to the Damo wagon with three puke face emojis.

I don't think this makes sense as a Kak-Sweet scum pair, but it could make sense as a Sweet having rolled scum for the first time.

[Foxcastle]

Possible explanations for Sweet's D1:

OMGUS. I vote him, he votes me. I think this is NAI for him, though.

Spooked first-timer scum. Didn't want to be seen as having been sitting on a dead townie from the start. The counterpoint to this is that starting a new wagon on me is actually useful information for town down the line, whereas driving Kak home would have meant less of a trail.

Low-activity game is giving him less to sort through/react to/etc. Also, NAI, probably.

Having thought about it, I think it's more likely that Kak is scum than Sweet is, at this point.

[Hamilton Brian]

I think I glazed over it yesterday while it was happening but I thought the "flash" sweet tried to inspire on Fox was pretty tepid. It strikes me as "I don't want to do this but I sort of have to do this." Where's that come across as AI? Motivation?

[Hamilton Brian]

Possible explanations for Sweet's D1:

OMGUS. I vote him, he votes me. I think this is NAI for him, though.

Spooked first-timer scum. Didn't want to be seen as having been sitting on a dead townie from the start. The counterpoint to this is that starting a new wagon on me is actually useful information for town down the line, whereas driving Kak home would have meant less of a trail.

Low-activity game is giving him less to sort through/react to/etc. Also, NAI, probably.

Having thought about it, I think it's more likely that Kak is scum than Sweet is, at this point.

I really want to sit with this because there's some options you've opened up for where we go next. Supposing Kak is mafia, then what to make of the shifts of votes on and off of them, especially toward end of day. Sweet was never really a viable vote so...if Sweet is mafia? Maybe that gives Bunny and ghug a pass for today?

Obviously just thinking out loud.

The part in the upper paragraph...useful information for town. Can you help me understand that better?

[Foxcastle]

Possible explanations for Sweet's D1:

OMGUS. I vote him, he votes me. I think this is NAI for him, though.

Spooked first-timer scum. Didn't want to be seen as having been sitting on a dead townie from the start. The counterpoint to this is that starting a new wagon on me is actually useful information for town down the line, whereas driving Kak home would have meant less of a trail.

Low-activity game is giving him less to sort through/react to/etc. Also, NAI, probably.

Having thought about it, I think it's more likely that Kak is scum than Sweet is, at this point.

I really want to sit with this because there's some options you've opened up for where we go next. Supposing Kak is mafia, then what to make of the shifts of votes on and off of them, especially toward end of day. Sweet was never really a viable vote so...if Sweet is mafia? Maybe that gives Bunny and ghug a pass for today?

Obviously just thinking out loud.

The part in the upper paragraph...useful information for town. Can you help me understand that better?

Eh, it's just a theory and there are plenty of alternative options. But the idea is that, if they could, scum should be happy to sit back and let town pick between two townies. It creates suspicion that the survivor was scum and saved, and if/when both D1 wagons are revealed as town, town basically has to start over. So starting alternative wagons is actually helpful, because you can see who tried to create movement. But that certainly doesn't preclude scum from starting a third town wagon or trying to flashwagon another townie. So this is not something to hang our hats on.

What I think it is most useful for is being able to say that that Sweet and I are not scum together.

[worcej]

He claims (I have not checked) he made it regarding the tie vote.

It's pretty clear he was following the lead of others and commenting on the possible tie situation.

He could have done something himself instead of waiting until after the deadline to chastise, though. It's still sus.

Agreed here.

[Hamilton Brian]

It's pretty clear he was following the lead of others and commenting on the possible tie situation.

He could have done something himself instead of waiting until after the deadline to chastise, though. It's still sus.

Agreed here.

I'm not going to dwell on this anymore. I'll just say that I thought all the monkeying around that led to the ties we were looking at was stupid. Should I have kept my opinion to myself? Maybe. That's not the MO of any of us around here that play the game. Could I have shifted my vote? Yeah, but then the likelihood that I cause a tie increases. I've done that before and been pilloried. I'll just STFU in the future.

[Hamilton Brian]

If we use Fox's analysis, I don't think we could do worse than make a flip of Kak.

Am I wrong here? We know it is T vs ? at this point.

The other avenue is flipping around the Damo voters and sorting them? I know that puts me in the pile but that's the game.

[sweetandcool]

If we use Fox's analysis, I don't think we could do worse than make a flip of Kak.

Am I wrong here? We know it is T vs ? at this point.

The other avenue is flipping around the Damo voters and sorting them? I know that puts me in the pile but that's the game.

This is funny because my analysis indicates the opposite, that Kak is probably town.

For the record, I'm indifferent to the last comment you made EoD.

[sweetandcool]

If we use Fox's analysis, I don't think we could do worse than make a flip of Kak.

Am I wrong here? We know it is T vs ? at this point.

The other avenue is flipping around the Damo voters and sorting them? I know that puts me in the pile but that's the game.

Also, why would we use Fox's analysis? It's clearly framed as an analysis purely focused on me, where Fox caps it all off by randomly deciding Kak is more likely Mafia.

[Foxcastle]

I would recommend that Kak, Sweet, and I should not be wagons on D2.

We'll be starting D2 with 6 town and 3 scum. I don't think both Kak and Sweet are scum, and I think there's a reasonable chance that neither of them are. That means that looking elsewhere is likely to be more worthwhile. If we spend a lot of time on D2 processing the three of us and we're wrong, we're going to go into KiLo on D3 with very little information.

[Hamilton Brian]

If we use Fox's analysis, I don't think we could do worse than make a flip of Kak.

Am I wrong here? We know it is T vs ? at this point.

The other avenue is flipping around the Damo voters and sorting them? I know that puts me in the pile but that's the game.

Also, why would we use Fox's analysis? It's clearly framed as an analysis purely focused on me, where Fox caps it all off by randomly deciding Kak is more likely Mafia.

It’s the main analysis out there right now. I do think there’s a dynamic between the two of you to at least be mindful of going forward. I haven’t reread to see why you wanted to flash them so bad yesterday.

[worcej]

He could have done something himself instead of waiting until after the deadline to chastise, though. It's still sus.

Agreed here.

I'm not going to dwell on this anymore. I'll just say that I thought all the monkeying around that led to the ties we were looking at was stupid. Should I have kept my opinion to myself? Maybe. That's not the MO of any of us around here that play the game. Could I have shifted my vote? Yeah, but then the likelihood that I cause a tie increases. I've done that before and been pilloried. I'll just STFU in the future.

My statement was reflective of a greater community frustration at these antics without actions to prevent (such as moving your vote to ensure)

FWIW - I also dislike it is so commonly done by certain individuals and is always seen as "towny" when I find it to be more of a selfish move than anything else because it forces people to react to their moves without any consensus. It sometimes works, but a lot of times just results in a random town player forced to die early.

[worcej]

Possible explanations for Sweet's D1:

OMGUS. I vote him, he votes me. I think this is NAI for him, though.

Spooked first-timer scum. Didn't want to be seen as having been sitting on a dead townie from the start. The counterpoint to this is that starting a new wagon on me is actually useful information for town down the line, whereas driving Kak home would have meant less of a trail.

Low-activity game is giving him less to sort through/react to/etc. Also, NAI, probably.

Having thought about it, I think it's more likely that Kak is scum than Sweet is, at this point.

I don't think sweet would be a spooked first time scum player. This is just general vibe opinion on his style FWIW

[worcej]

If we use Fox's analysis, I don't think we could do worse than make a flip of Kak.

Am I wrong here? We know it is T vs ? at this point.

The other avenue is flipping around the Damo voters and sorting them? I know that puts me in the pile but that's the game.

Also, why would we use Fox's analysis? It's clearly framed as an analysis purely focused on me, where Fox caps it all off by randomly deciding Kak is more likely Mafia.

It’s the main analysis out there right now. I do think there’s a dynamic between the two of you to at least be mindful of going forward. I haven’t reread to see why you wanted to flash them so bad yesterday.

Can you explain the dynamic in your own words?

[Foxcastle]

Fox caps it all off by randomly deciding Kak is more likely Mafia.

Why do you think it’s random?

[sweetandcool]

Fox caps it all off by randomly deciding Kak is more likely Mafia.

Why do you think it’s random?

Your analysis was on my progression, mainly in regards to Kak. Nowhere do you make a comment on Kak themself until your very last comment where you conclude that Kak is more likely Mafia than me. This comes from absolutely nowhere.

[sweetandcool]

If we use Fox's analysis, I don't think we could do worse than make a flip of Kak.

Am I wrong here? We know it is T vs ? at this point.

The other avenue is flipping around the Damo voters and sorting them? I know that puts me in the pile but that's the game.

Also, why would we use Fox's analysis? It's clearly framed as an analysis purely focused on me, where Fox caps it all off by randomly deciding Kak is more likely Mafia.

It’s the main analysis out there right now. I do think there’s a dynamic between the two of you to at least be mindful of going forward. I haven’t reread to see why you wanted to flash them so bad yesterday.

"It’s the main analysis out there right now."

?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

Bona and I both put out substantial analysis, you even commented that you would read mine later. Why are you treating Fox's analysis as the only one, or at the very least as one worthy of worship?