M81: A Night To Remember [GAME THREAD]

[BunnyGo]

I've been thinking. I'm turning a little into brain here, so bear with me.

Ezio is a worry. Not because I think he is scummy, but if he is, we will have trouble nailing him before KILO.

And here is why I worry.

Why didn't damo try dieinformation N3? Is it because his teammate was the only one in the Seance?

<boom>

[BunnyGo]

6-1 today
If we're wrong, tomorrow is
4-1
if we're wrong, the next day is
2-1

Oh we have three shots left.

@worcej are you and I bad at math

Yes. Aaro established that d1. Let’s not rehash.

[BunnyGo]

Worcej and I both thought we had 2 shots left in our night chat.

IDK if this is important or anything but it could be

How did the conversation go? It’s hard to say if it matters.

[BunnyGo]

@worcej tell me about chaqa.

I’m left with a small PoE here. I don’t scum read him. But…who else?

To me, Chaqa looks the worst from D2 POE but when you include D1 I struggle to see why scum would outright target him as much as they did.

The one thing that gives me pause from just completely clearing him all together is the N0 chat thing. Chaqa could have easily told them to bus him for credit if he wasn't interested in the game, but he didn't seem uninterested in our N0 dance chat and then N1 either like he is now.

Another notch of concern is the HB move off of Chaqa with 00:03 left in phase when damo moved onto him, creating this: 3 Cha, 3 ghu, 3 Vec, 3 Ham

Chaqa and kgray did bus each other once an entire game. By design.

Fmp. Screw up their names again

[worcej]

Worcej and I both thought we had 2 shots left in our night chat.

IDK if this is important or anything but it could be

How did the conversation go? It’s hard to say if it matters.

He said we had 2 MK's and I assumed I was being flipped and was referencing the ones outside of myself. Like before, me and Chaqa misinterpret each other

[DemonRHK]

##Unvote

[worcej]

##vote Ezio
##end

I'm not liking what I see so far...

[worcej]

@Hamilton since you're around, can you tell me how you feel about the top posters (except bb lol). Not just town vs scum, but how would you characterize their gameplay?

This fells like forced engagement with scum partner.

[worcej]

Oh @RD, How are you reading Ghug so far? I've been told you're the only one who can do it correctly.

That's damo.

Yooo and damo's in this one? @Damo, what's your read of Ghug so far? Can I sheep him all game like I want to?

Another one here.

[DemonRHK]

I’m curious: what do you learn anymore in game days besides 2 people flipping town (assuming game doesn’t end)?

*Shrug*

It sounded good.

[worcej]

so ... why is green, blue and red the same 1/11 when they have all different values? Shouldn't the chance decrease because there aren't as many slots after the mafia before were drawn? And if you just want to say all three have equal chance to be drawn, why put that math out there?

So what are the chances then that town is your partner?

1/13 for the first? (1-1/13)*(1/12) = 1/13 (0.0769230769230769)
second (1-2/12)*(1/11) = 0.0757575757575 ~1/13
third (1-3/11)*(1/10) = 0.07272727272 ~1/14
fourth (1-4/11)*(1/9) = 0.070707070707 ~1/14
sixth (1-5/11)*(1/8) = 0.0681818181818182 ~1/15
seventh (1-6/11)*(1/7) = 0.064935064935065 ~1/15
eight (1-7/11)*(1/6) = 0.0606060606060606 ~1/16
ninth (1-8/11)*(1/5) = 0.054545454545454545 ~1/18
tenth (1-9/11)*(1/4) = 0.045454545454545455 = 1/22
eleventh (1-10/11)*(1/3) = 0.0303030303030303 = 1/33

0.0769230769230769
0.075757575757575
0.0727272727727272
0.0707070707070707
0.0681818181818182
0.064935064935065
0.0606060606060606
0.0545454545454545
0.0454545454545455
0.0303030303030303
__________________
0.6201409701409801 ~ 7/11 (0.6363636363636363)

hmm, something doesn't make sense with that ... it's close, sure, but 7/11 + 3/11 is only about 10/11 ... where is the missing 1/11?

and why does the number vary for town whereas for mafia it stays the same percentage?

why does damo and aaro come to around the same number which isn't 100% exactly correct? Did they come up with that number in the mafchat? Did I do a big oopsie somewhere at my calculations? Can the system for mafia not be made for town? Or is the whole thing just a big strange red herring and 3/7 and 4/7 are just correct?

There are 11 town so the chance of being brawn with Mafia 1 is 1 in 11 or 1/11.

To be drawn with Mafia 2 you can't have been drawn with Mafia 1 (1-1/11 = 10/11) multiplied by the 1 in 10 chance of getting drawn (there are only 10 town left as 1 has been paired with Maia1). 10/11 * 1/10 = 1/11.

Applying similar logic to Mafia 3 (not having been drawn with 1 or 2) times the 1 in 9 that are left you get 1/11.

Add the three to get 3/11.

I used to work in a similar job to aaro hence the same conclusion. Nothing mysterious. I did not speak in scumchat, he may have. He may or may not be my dance partner.

I have a simpler way to think about it. 3/11 town are currently paired with mafia. If you are town, you fit into that category and so those are your odds.

This is the only other interaction with Damo on D1 and it was just mech talk.

[worcej]

Of the people on me at the moment, I'd bet that's Chaqa more than the others.

Tell me why you're voting damo.

I'm voting damo b/c his d1 was terrible.
His iso was full of nonsense and unimportant statements. Only mechanical talk and not a lot of it. I expected more.
The main reason though is his terrible shift onto Chaqa at EoD to make Chaqa the leading wagon instead of HB. Knowing that HB flipped scum makes this vote look really really bad.

This turns out to be Ezio's first anti-damo commentary in the game.

[worcej]

I dunno maybe we can get this going. ##vote Damo

Lots of ppl saying they're scumreading him but nobody else wants to vote him.

The re-vote didn't make damo a relevant wagon at the time.

In honesty, it's Jamie's move @ EOD that made damo a posibility and I think Ezio was stuck in his bus with the posts he made earlier in the day.

[worcej]

N2 Ezio makes no posts while most of us are pissed about how D2 was a tie.

[worcej]

D3 Ezio makes 2 posts total, none consequential or insightful:

what?

##vote damo

[worcej]

I find it particularly odd how little he posted regarding Damo during this phase and I find it most likely to be an attempt to distance now then anything.

[Chaqa]

##Vote Ezio
##End

Selfishly, I'd rather vote out the person who has been chomping at the byte to miskill me before voting out worcej, who is only chomping at the bit to miskill me.

[Jamiet99uk]

I don't mind Ezio vs Worcej

[BunnyGo]

There are 11 town so the chance of being brawn with Mafia 1 is 1 in 11 or 1/11.

To be drawn with Mafia 2 you can't have been drawn with Mafia 1 (1-1/11 = 10/11) multiplied by the 1 in 10 chance of getting drawn (there are only 10 town left as 1 has been paired with Maia1). 10/11 * 1/10 = 1/11.

Applying similar logic to Mafia 3 (not having been drawn with 1 or 2) times the 1 in 9 that are left you get 1/11.

Add the three to get 3/11.

I used to work in a similar job to aaro hence the same conclusion. Nothing mysterious. I did not speak in scumchat, he may have. He may or may not be my dance partner.

I have a simpler way to think about it. 3/11 town are currently paired with mafia. If you are town, you fit into that category and so those are your odds.

This is the only other interaction with Damo on D1 and it was just mech talk.

It was also the best math don’t that day. I was dragging everyone (including aaro and damo) in my notes.

Would they have talked about it N0?

[BunnyGo]

I don't mind Ezio vs Worcej

That’s why our dance was so lovely last night; we agree on things.