M81: A Night To Remember [GAME THREAD]

[worcej]

Clarification to second line: there can only be one scum in a group. There are 3 scum.

[Kakarroto]

Lets start with some introductory flavour. What was the first dance you did with your partner?

obviously a Viennese waltz, we also talked so much about the beauty of Vienna and what a beautiful city it is. You just can't beat a good Wiener Waltzer.

[brainbomb]

Dear sweetandcool

Would you be willing to explain what makes you think I am lying about this?

[worcej]

I’ll take the bozo role this game: should we claim our partners?

[aarodactyl]

Anyway, I talked with my dance partner (further known as 'Sissi' until reveal), and we thought a bit about the pro's and con's of everyone claiming their dance partners. Maybe we didn't think of every possibility, but it looked to us that claiming head on is much more beneficial for town, than it is for mafia, right?

So in that regard, I'd like to hear from everyone here what you think, should we reveal our dance partners right here on the first day?

Btw, I think my partner is more likely town, so if I didn't misread my dear Sissi, that would be two towns leaning on revealing today.

[DemonRHK]

The person I am in a chat with openly admitted to being mafia and claimed that no one would ever believe me even if I announced it. I asked them who they were mafia with and they said ezio, Jamie, and sweetandcool.

I asked how that was possible and they said they were only lying about one of the three.

While I don't believe this exchange actually occured, I think you make what could be an interestiung thought exercise gamer.

Do you think
A. he didnt really say those three?
B. he didnt really admit to being mafia?
C. I am lying
D. he isnt a he.

I don't think any player currently in this game is so egregiously cocky in their own play to hard claim mafia, as actual mafia while honestly claiming no one would buy it.

I guess a better way to phrase it would be "I doubt this is a fully honest interaction" in the vein that it may have been said, but was not save in seriousness.

So I would say E) The person might have said it, but they were not being honest in their claim.

[brainbomb]

I was curious if you doubt that the person I am partnered with, based on what you know about them; would openly claim scum.

[aarodactyl]

Anyway, I talked with my dance partner (further known as 'Sissi' until reveal), and we thought a bit about the pro's and con's of everyone claiming their dance partners. Maybe we didn't think of every possibility, but it looked to us that claiming head on is much more beneficial for town, than it is for mafia, right?

So in that regard, I'd like to hear from everyone here what you think, should we reveal our dance partners right here on the first day?

Btw, I think my partner is more likely town, so if I didn't misread my dear Sissi, that would be two towns leaning on revealing today.

Ugh. I’m on mobile and my response to this died apparently. I was going to say:

I think revealing is bad. It gives away the only remaining town info to scum. There’s currently some asymmetry in towns favor and it would get flushed down the toilet by revealing.

There’s also no downside to waiting until night to do so.

[Kakarroto]

Also there’s a 3/11 chance your partner is scum (if you’re town). There is a 5/22 chance someone you’re not partners with is scum. 3/11>5/22 so watch your backs while dancing.

Also this intro is 50% because I want to make sure we don’t get bad math arguments and 50% to make durga happy she didn’t join.

ok, explain this math because it doesn't make sense to me. Why is the chance 3/11 and not 3/7? There are only 7 teams and mafia can't make new teams.

Also how do you come to the 5/22? It looks like you doubled the 3/11 and decided to subtract one from the first number?

[aarodactyl]

Also I don’t hold anything against those of you that are saying 3/7 but bayes is rolling in his grave. Maybe don’t do that to him.

There are 7 dance groups.

There is a scum in each group.

If you’re town, you have 3/7 odds of being in a scum containing dance group.

QED

I’m trying to be nice this game, so I’ll ask this politely. Are you baiting me on purpose?

[aarodactyl]

Also there’s a 3/11 chance your partner is scum (if you’re town). There is a 5/22 chance someone you’re not partners with is scum. 3/11>5/22 so watch your backs while dancing.

Also this intro is 50% because I want to make sure we don’t get bad math arguments and 50% to make durga happy she didn’t join.

ok, explain this math because it doesn't make sense to me. Why is the chance 3/11 and not 3/7? There are only 7 teams and mafia can't make new teams.

Also how do you come to the 5/22? It looks like you doubled the 3/11 and decided to subtract one from the first number?

There’s 11 town and 3 of them have scum partners. 5/22=(3-3/11)/12

[aarodactyl]

Also I don’t hold anything against those of you that are saying 3/7 but bayes is rolling in his grave. Maybe don’t do that to him.

There are 7 dance groups.

There is a scum in each group.

If you’re town, you have 3/7 odds of being in a scum containing dance group.

QED

Maybe this will help:

There is a 3/7 chance that a group has a scum in it but there’s a 3/11 chance a town player is in such a group because they can’t be one of the scummy halves of those 3 groups.

[brainbomb]

The real dance is the game thread.

Fidelio.

[sweetandcool]

Also I don’t hold anything against those of you that are saying 3/7 but bayes is rolling in his grave. Maybe don’t do that to him.

There are 7 dance groups.

There is a scum in each group.

If you’re town, you have 3/7 odds of being in a scum containing dance group.

QED

Maybe this will help:

There is a 3/7 chance that a group has a scum in it but there’s a 3/11 chance a town player is in such a group because they can’t be one of the scummy halves of those 3 groups.

Okay, this is nonsense. Obviously it is 50/50. Either your partner is Mafia, or they are not.

[Kakarroto]

Anyway, I talked with my dance partner (further known as 'Sissi' until reveal), and we thought a bit about the pro's and con's of everyone claiming their dance partners. Maybe we didn't think of every possibility, but it looked to us that claiming head on is much more beneficial for town, than it is for mafia, right?

So in that regard, I'd like to hear from everyone here what you think, should we reveal our dance partners right here on the first day?

Btw, I think my partner is more likely town, so if I didn't misread my dear Sissi, that would be two towns leaning on revealing today.

This is absolutely an awful idea, and I'm hoping this isn't just Mafia fishing for dance partners.

##VOTE Kakarroto

Ok, then tell my why it's bad? Sissi suggested to make a pro/con list, on the pro side would be that mafia can't falsify any connection so mafia can't hide by connecting two of them together. We also would instantly know who is town if we flip a mafia (whereas Mafia who will most likely share/have already shared their information of their partners would know this even if we don't share the dance partner information so they can deal with the 'confirmed' town that's not been revealed anyway).

On the con side would be that we would give mafia information for their nk-decisions on the teams where there is no mafia, but they already have the information for 3 teams out of 7, so guessing who the other 4 teams are isn't too hard anyway, right?

Hit me if there's something big that we overlooked, but Mafia here has an even bigger information lead than just in normal games, so a day 1 claim would remedy that, right?

[DemonRHK]

So aaro's math isn't wrong per se, but it does not explain the gravity of the situation. The fact is every town member has to worry on just better than a coin flip that the person you are talking with is on your side.

As far as claiming goes, I am not against it, but I don't think it's a discussion for today. I think it is better for solving long term later.

[brainbomb]

Well that was easy

Town
Kakarrotto

would anyone else like to join the list?

[Kakarroto]

Also there’s a 3/11 chance your partner is scum (if you’re town). There is a 5/22 chance someone you’re not partners with is scum. 3/11>5/22 so watch your backs while dancing.

Also this intro is 50% because I want to make sure we don’t get bad math arguments and 50% to make durga happy she didn’t join.

ok, explain this math because it doesn't make sense to me. Why is the chance 3/11 and not 3/7? There are only 7 teams and mafia can't make new teams.

Also how do you come to the 5/22? It looks like you doubled the 3/11 and decided to subtract one from the first number?

There’s 11 town and 3 of them have scum partners. 5/22=(3-3/11)/12

explain it step by step. what does the first 3 mean. What the second 3. Why do you divide through 12.

[aarodactyl]

Anyway, I talked with my dance partner (further known as 'Sissi' until reveal), and we thought a bit about the pro's and con's of everyone claiming their dance partners. Maybe we didn't think of every possibility, but it looked to us that claiming head on is much more beneficial for town, than it is for mafia, right?

So in that regard, I'd like to hear from everyone here what you think, should we reveal our dance partners right here on the first day?

Btw, I think my partner is more likely town, so if I didn't misread my dear Sissi, that would be two towns leaning on revealing today.

This is absolutely an awful idea, and I'm hoping this isn't just Mafia fishing for dance partners.

##VOTE Kakarroto

Ok, then tell my why it's bad? Sissi suggested to make a pro/con list, on the pro side would be that mafia can't falsify any connection so mafia can't hide by connecting two of them together. We also would instantly know who is town if we flip a mafia (whereas Mafia who will most likely share/have already shared their information of their partners would know this even if we don't share the dance partner information so they can deal with the 'confirmed' town that's not been revealed anyway).

On the con side would be that we would give mafia information for their nk-decisions on the teams where there is no mafia, but they already have the information for 3 teams out of 7, so guessing who the other 4 teams are isn't too hard anyway, right?

Hit me if there's something big that we overlooked, but Mafia here has an even bigger information lead than just in normal games, so a day 1 claim would remedy that, right?

No. It makes it worse. The only info that scum doesn’t have is which town are paired up. Which is actually stupidly important. I think explaining this more is anti town though.

[DemonRHK]

Anyway, I talked with my dance partner (further known as 'Sissi' until reveal), and we thought a bit about the pro's and con's of everyone claiming their dance partners. Maybe we didn't think of every possibility, but it looked to us that claiming head on is much more beneficial for town, than it is for mafia, right?

So in that regard, I'd like to hear from everyone here what you think, should we reveal our dance partners right here on the first day?

Btw, I think my partner is more likely town, so if I didn't misread my dear Sissi, that would be two towns leaning on revealing today.

This is absolutely an awful idea, and I'm hoping this isn't just Mafia fishing for dance partners.

##VOTE Kakarroto

This is kinda a silly take. Mafia doesn't need a mass claim, except to tr yto full elimate pairs, but that itself is even late game talk for a phase in which n one id ded.