M1025 Game Thread

[damo666]

OK I thought I'd start by looking at the number of bussers on ghug, estimate their likelihood and the probabilty of each player being scum within that each scenario.

I started by saying no bussers (ie all town) is 6C4/8C4 (since we know Eden was town, ghug scum and I'm taking into account I am town) = 3/14

I then arbitrarily assigned a probability of 5% to 2 bussers on the basis that it is intrinsically unlikely and given our fascination with bussing had there been 2 bussers Eden would not have been the nk narrowing the pool of ghug voters.

I also made the following assumptions:

Bozo can only have bussed in a scumpair with Bunny.

In the 1 busser scenario I assumed FlumBunny not a scumpair.

In the 0 busser scenario I omitted Jamie/Bona and brain/Bona as per Chaqa.

% Results in alpha order to 1 dp

Bona 25.4
Bozo 1.2
brain 30.8
Bunny 23.8
Chaqa 29.3
Flum 29.5
Jamie 30.8
Pyxxy 29.3

From hi to lo

Brain Jamie 30.8
Flum 29.5
Chaqa Pyxxy 29.3
Bona 25.4
Bunny 23.8
Bozo 1.2

If we put 2 bussers to zero Jamie and brain go up to 32.1

If we put 2 bussers to 10% Chaqa and Pyxxy head the list at 29.9

I would put 2 bussers closer to zero than 10% so the numbers say I should vote for brain and Jamie.

As I townread brain slightly more I will

##vote Jamie

where are these numbers coming from and what do they mean?

Read and tell me precisely what you don't understand.

[brainbomb]

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?g= ... Jamiet99uk


this times well with chaqa and jamie realizing they need to now distance from each other and probably discussed this in night chat. that they need to put in the work. Jamie night posts dont match his play today at all. based on these posts he would be scumreading damo and not flum, and be sus of chaqa, instead he is voting with chaqa. And this distinction alone is one of Jamies primary attack items is to point out logical fallacies that a person shouldnt be scumreading someone alongside one of their scumreads (ect)

[bozotheclown]

OK...finally have time to read EOD2 starting at page 97 when ghug's wagon was down to 1.

Let's see:

bozo declares I was bussing PE (!) so he votes me.

brainbomb announces the bunny wagon is the child of a bunch of insane people.

Then brain votes me.

Then said bozo and damo clear themselves by voting scum...they have yet to do that...

bozo references M62 where apparently I bussed Jamie and Chaqa (stops reread to check M62:

I do recall pushing Jamie, but a search for my name saying the word chaq* turns up that I put a single "pressure" vote on him until he announced that he'd read his PM. Then never voted him again.

yeah good luck bunny, can only imagine having the responsibility of kids and then having shit outside of your control collapse all around you.

It's a pandemic...it's hard for everyone. If I can find tim for games, it's not awful. I just had a rhythm, it got broke, and I was pissed. Ok...game time...

Summary of my EOD reads:

kgray: looks scummy superficially, but probably town based on posts
ghug: looks towny.
Balki: looks scummy.
Durga: unclear.
Flum: Probably town for declaring they'd sit on teacon when it was close.
brain: looks even scummier than kgray, but again it's so scummy I don't think scum!brain would do it. I think it is more likely lost and confused town!brain.
Hamilton: weird post about gold. Not sure if scummy or very very confused.
Chaq: weird...but not like his scum game from last time.

bozo...wrong about historical fact...hmmm)

Back to EOD2:

bozo continues demonstrating lack of understanding of human condition...perhaps this is scum bozo? It doesn't age well.

ghug went out of his way to engage with me on several posts I didn't address to him (e.g.:

Good talk, damo.

Ok, well....I'm at my parents' today all day.

For those of you fortunate enough to have parents you like (or at least don't dislike) give them a call today. It's a nice thing to do while you can.

Giving me a hard time because I just rejected my parents' dinner invite?

)

bozo then defends ghug from bona.

ghug then defends me from flum.

bozo then claims he thinks eden and ghug are town. This is just a couple posts after his previous defense of ghug from bona...strange.

@bozo: did you think ghug was scum at the time or not?

bozo then asks ghug why eden is scum.

ghug defends me from brain AND bozo.

(Note: ghug was defending me HARD from everyone--make of the WIFOM what you will)

ghug engages with bozo to explain why ghug scumreads eden.

damo engages with eden about voting me.

damo engages with brain to point out that pyxxy isn't voting me despite saying he would and that brain claimed pyxxy was voting me.

ghug says he much prefers bozo and flum to me.

ghug asks damo to shift back to Eden. brain engages ghug on this too.

bozo continues to not know what colloquialisms of OK mean. He continues to conf bias this ignorance to vote me. Yes, I'm editorializing--learn American, bozo!

NO VOTES CHANGE IN THIS TIME.

VOTE COUNT

BunnyGo (4): Fluminator, damo666, bozotheclown, brainbomb
bozotheclown (2): Bonatogether, Jamiet99uk
damo666 (2): President Eden, BunnyGo*
ghug (1): pyxxy
President Eden (1): ghug
Fluminator (1): Chaqa

Bunny is voting to end.

BunnyGo's scone is set to get jammed.

Bakers, you have 3 hours!

To be continued. But some quick summary so far:

If it was TvTvT then scum had no reason to fret.

ghug engaged and defended me A LOT.

bozo both defended ghug and claimed to scumread him.

bozo got statement of fact about me bussing chaqa in previous game incorrect.

brain volunteered to engage with ghug when not addressed, and suggest eden was hard to read.


Conclusions: bozo looks bad here on reread, but not horrible. damo probably town, brain probably town.

I know I never claimed that I thought PE and ghug were town D2 because ghug was my top scum read for all of D2 and I also suspected PE.

In M62, you distanced or bussed Chaqa, whatever you want to call it, by calling out a potential scum slip where Chaqa said he did not know the game had started despite saying something that indicted he had read his role PM before the game start time. I think kgray even cited that when she voted to mis-kill me over Chaqa, questioning if you would bus 2 of your teammates D1.

You said you were OK with the worcej wagon. 12 minute later you said you were not OK with the worcej wagon (stated a different way). My question was
what changed your mind, and your response was dismissive and did not answer the question.

[Bonatogether]

damo is wrong again

In what way pray tell. This ain't helpful.

at the time i posted that, where i was in the reread, you were scumreading me and putting bongo/jamie high iirc

[Bonatogether]

##vote Flum

I can’t square a POE that doesn’t include Flum.

Possible deep threats are chaqa and brain.

But Damo, pyxxy, bona, Jamie (?…?…maybe a threat)

All look good.

Still need to reread the EOD 2. I remember a lot of interesting talking about ghug and counter wagons that wasn’t recorded in votes. But need to reread still.

how can you say i look good and then spend hours and hours voting me?

Yeah...I'm spinning here a bit.

lame response

[Bonatogether]

what changed in between when you posted that you townread me and you voting me? cause it sure wasn't my grand total of zero posts in that time

[Bonatogether]

OK I thought I'd start by looking at the number of bussers on ghug, estimate their likelihood and the probabilty of each player being scum within that each scenario.

I started by saying no bussers (ie all town) is 6C4/8C4 (since we know Eden was town, ghug scum and I'm taking into account I am town) = 3/14

I then arbitrarily assigned a probability of 5% to 2 bussers on the basis that it is intrinsically unlikely and given our fascination with bussing had there been 2 bussers Eden would not have been the nk narrowing the pool of ghug voters.

I also made the following assumptions:

Bozo can only have bussed in a scumpair with Bunny.

In the 1 busser scenario I assumed FlumBunny not a scumpair.

In the 0 busser scenario I omitted Jamie/Bona and brain/Bona as per Chaqa.

% Results in alpha order to 1 dp

Bona 25.4
Bozo 1.2
brain 30.8
Bunny 23.8
Chaqa 29.3
Flum 29.5
Jamie 30.8
Pyxxy 29.3

From hi to lo

Brain Jamie 30.8
Flum 29.5
Chaqa Pyxxy 29.3
Bona 25.4
Bunny 23.8
Bozo 1.2

If we put 2 bussers to zero Jamie and brain go up to 32.1

If we put 2 bussers to 10% Chaqa and Pyxxy head the list at 29.9

I would put 2 bussers closer to zero than 10% so the numbers say I should vote for brain and Jamie.

As I townread brain slightly more I will

##vote Jamie

where are these numbers coming from and what do they mean?

Read and tell me precisely what you don't understand.

you have what appears to be probabilities of various people bussing

they add up to more than 100%

[brainbomb]

I cant distinguish between real Jamie thoughts, or if these are just straight up agendas.

Ghug doesn't bus much though does he.

Chaqa,

How do you feel, in hindsight, about the fact that every time you tried to mobilise troops to protect Bozo, Ghug appeared to be the most eager recruit?

Why do you think Flum is part of Ghug and Bozo's team?

This was Ghug's reply to Brainbomb's D1 survey.

He listed Flum, Damo, Bona, Eden as "town assets".

Do you think he would include a scum-buddy in that list?

These are not jamie town posts. this is where he takes an idea, and throws it out there, and draws no conclusion. He does this as mafia usually. He makes these floater ideas that force a player to engage with a loaded question.

(you mean you think ghug is the driver??)
(you mean you think damo was the suicide bomber?)

https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB ... f#p348675

Everything here onward is like
"this is interesting"
"this is also interesting"

and im having a hard time buying that these are intended to fairly reread bona. instead its like very scummy in how it comes off, and almost feels more like Jamie saying to himself "im gonna try this game to do what I didnt do last game and just paint the walls with shade to see what sticks"

[bozotheclown]

If I am not scum, do you therefore conclude that Brainbomb must be scum?

I'll be damned if I let you miskill me on the basis of this. The problem is, if I was scum, I absolutely would bus Ghug more often than not.

I'm worried that I'm scum!Damo's low hanging fruit here.

Do you think damo is scum? What do you make of the last 15 minutes EOD2?

Do you think damo is just doing bad math/reasoning?

Assumptions may be wrong but maffs ain't bad.

I think your calculations are based on too many assumptions for the resulting numbers to mean anything useful.

[brainbomb]

I need someone other than chaqa to shake me and tell me that Im just being unfair to Jamie here. or tell me there is some logic to what im saying..

something. please. anybody

[Jamiet99uk]

could chaqa really do this? would he really do this? would they?

what the fuck.

What is he accusing Chaqa of here?

I d g i

[Jamiet99uk]

okay well if its chaqa-jamie this is gonna be quite a bloody game. I really dont know if anyone else even understands why I maybe came to this idea

However you came to this conclusion, it's wrong.

[Jamiet99uk]

i don't understand why people continue to insist that that catchup was fake when i flipped town

Can we ask the GM to restart the last game, so we can flip you, just to be sure?

[bozotheclown]

How do you read damo's posts (not votes, posts) at EOD2? scum!damo or town!damo?

I could see him refusing to vote for ghug as town or mafia.

I specifically said "how do you read his posts (not votes, posts)". As in: what do you think of the words he wrote?

I was referring to his posts, specifically these posts:

If it helps I have no intention of moving from scumBunny

ghug ain't scum, Bunny's your man

@bozo I think you've got this wrong

I think damo as town could make these posts if he was convinced ghug was town, and I think damo as mafia could make these posts because either he thought it would look like too obviously protecting a teammate to get suspected for it, or because you are also mafia and either of you flipping next would make the other look better.

[Jamiet99uk]

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?g= ... Jamiet99uk

this times well with chaqa and jamie realizing they need to now distance from each other and probably discussed this in night chat. that they need to put in the work. Jamie night posts dont match his play today at all. based on these posts he would be scumreading damo and not flum, and be sus of chaqa, instead he is voting with chaqa. And this distinction alone is one of Jamies primary attack items is to point out logical fallacies that a person shouldnt be scumreading someone alongside one of their scumreads (ect)

Damo and Fluminator are in my current scum pool.

Did I suggest I suddenly townread Damo now? I have repeatedly criticised Damo today.

[brainbomb]

Jamie scum pairs

Jamie - Bunny
If I imagine a world where the two both end up as scum together again I would think they would both want to mix up play style a ton from lurking. They both lurked, and mechanics didn't do them favors. So what did work for them? They both survived until a POE got the best of them and they saw town almost devolve into madness.
I cant dismiss this being the scumteam because they both seem to be nervous, dancing around issues, acting bewildered by peoples inexplicable takes

[bozotheclown]

How do you read damo's posts (not votes, posts) at EOD2? scum!damo or town!damo?

I could see him refusing to vote for ghug as town or mafia.

I specifically said "how do you read his posts (not votes, posts)". As in: what do you think of the words he wrote?

Here is a post without a vote that I do find supicous:

So, it's Flum and pyxxy forced into a face saving bus.

Sorry Bunny.

[damo666]

where are these numbers coming from and what do they mean?

Read and tell me precisely what you don't understand.

you have what appears to be probabilities of various people bussing

they add up to more than 100%

No, they are probabilities of people being scum (which = bussing iff on ghug); they sum to 2 which with 2 scum outstanding is what you would expect.

[brainbomb]

jamie why do you townread bunny

[bozotheclown]

no i skim discord for things and then i go read the thread

What did you mean by checking discord?

this feels self-evident

Specifically what information about this game did you find out by checking discord?