1. I’ll revisit this when I’m at my computer as I think citations will be needed to specific posts and I simply can’t be fucked on my phone rn lol. Suffice to say that I don’t think Dousing has done anything that “must” be scum, but I find he hasn’t done anything that “must” be town either, while I find many players here have done something that “must” be town IMO. He’s certainly a good POE shot at a minimum.brainbomb wrote: ↑Fri May 19, 2023 6:47 pm1. Dousing is not really very scummy from my perspective, and I dont see any reason why they ended up in this spot actually.President Eden wrote: ↑Fri May 19, 2023 6:34 pmnot being sure that something happened is not the same as being sure that something didn’t happen.
you are making the mistaken assumption throughout the analysis here that if someone doesn’t necessarily accept your leaps, they must be absolutely sure that the leaps are wrong.
my beliefs are the following:
1• Dousing is appreciably likely to be scum and is certainly within a rapidly shrinking POE pool.
2• Mafia don’t generally prioritize shooting players who are right this early in the game, so it’s not likely that pyxxy was shot for his suspects pool, but rather for being beyond miskill and bringing a clarity of thought that would make him difficult to misdirect in the long haul.
3• I don’t necessarily know that pyxxy wanted Dousing to die, but given the earlier statement about Dousing being in a rapidly shrinking POE pool, I imagine he may have been interested in flipping Dousing.
4• I don’t necessarily believe the mafia must have bolstered the bus drive, but I think it’s too difficult with what we know at the moment to speculate on how they would use it in a way that isn’t just confirming what we already want to see in the information we do have.
2. I would fundanmentally disgree to the utmost. Mafia prioritize killing the players who are the RIGHTEST, as soon as possible. Players with a voice who are accurate are preferential deaths.
3. The fact pyxxy argued directly with a known scum foxcastle and told him straight up how bad of a vote it was makes me think pyxxy was killed for at least SOME reason related to dousing. and thus wifom sets in.
4. All I know is that the cop was very likely not going to holster. So if bus driver holstered it was coming from a maf team that did not care at all if a cop scan went off. So I tend to lean more toward they did bus driver, and I think someone like dousing makes alot of sense to be the target in such a scenario. Where they can frame that person or salvage that person. whichever way it was gonna go here
2. You are correct that vocal accurate players are preferential deaths, but such players are almost always also difficult or unrealistic to miskill, and I believe their vocalness and the unfeasibility of miskilling them is what drives that first. I don’t think vocal accurate players who are plausible miskills get nightkilled, which means that being vocal and accurate is not sufficient.
3. I don’t deny that that could have happened that way, but neither do I find it compelling to say that it must have. I think it’s plausible that pyxxy was simply difficult to miskill and difficult to misdirect, and that the actual conversations he had with scum were of secondary or even no importance. I’m not saying they must have been of secondary or no importance, only that I don’t think they must have been paramount either.
4. At the risk of sounding condescending, it’s not as though the Bus Driver gets to go “hello Mr. Chaqa, I believe the CopJOAT is going to scan this turn, so please assume my targets are whatever fucks that up, thanks.” The mafia have to (1) believe the CopJOAT is going to scan that night AND (2) believe they have a reliable read on who is going to be scanned AND (3) believe this use, which is basically a glorified one-shot Framer, is better than alternative actions including, if chalk holds, jailing worcej AND (4) believe that there is no better use of the Bus Driver than as a glorified one-shot Framer which would merit holstering.
Is any of that impossible? No. Implausible? I don’t know, and that’s the rub. I’ve tried to process the likelihood of all that, and I inevitably find myself relying on my existing conclusions about the game. Which means I’m not objectively evaluating the evidence as it exists, but instead am deciding if it complements or contradicts my narrative for the game, and determining likelihood from what I already think. I don’t think that’s a useful exercise. I’m not saying you are doing the same, I’m saying I don’t know how to reflect on your theory in a way that I think is useful to us in solving this. Make sense?
